Has Thailand reached the top of the Covid curve?

[webfact]

File photo

 

by Michael Bridge

According to statistics published by the World Health Origination, Thailand now ranks thirty-four on the World table with 166,520 cases reported up to Monday March 20th.

Southeast Asia’s most affected country is Vietnam which recorded 1.913,928 cases in the same period.

The average number of new infections reported in Thailand reached a peak of 27,071 cases on March 18th.

Since then by March 22nd it had dropped to 21,382 cases.

Since the pandemic started there have been a total of 3,353,969 infections and 24,246 coronavirus related deaths in Thailand.

The actual number of cases is likely to be much higher than the number of confirmed cases – this is due to limited testing in Thailand. 

Why is it useful to look at weekly changes in confirmed cases?

For all global data sources on the pandemic, daily data does not necessarily refer to the number of new confirmed cases on that day – but to the cases reported on that day.

Since reporting can vary significantly from day to day – irrespectively of any actual variation of cases – it is helpful to look at a longer time span that is less affected by the daily variation in reporting. 

According to https://ourworldindata.org/, this provides a clearer picture of where the pandemic is accelerating, staying the same, or reducing.

To enable comparisons across countries it is expressed per million people of the population.

 

 

91.2% have been vaccinated

Thailand has so far administered 127,061,065 doses of Covid vaccines. This means if every person needs two doses, then 91.2% of the country’s population have been covered.

Dr. Anan Jongkaewwattana, a virologist and researcher at the National Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology in Thailand, has said the country is at a “crossroads” over what to do next.

“We are experiencing rising in omicron cases -- a very rapid one. The question should be how long we can expect it to slow down … it can be days or weeks or even months.,” 

 

Keep up to date with all things Thailand - Join our daily ASEAN NOW Thailand Newsletter - Click to subscribe

“In my opinion, we are at the crossroads at the moment. The number of cases are rising but, to many doctors, the majority of them are still considered mild when compared to the delta wave,” he added.

Data show that the omicron variant is highly transmissible, has an incubation period of about five days and causes less severe symptoms than earlier variants.

Thailand now must focus on a plan to live with the virus, according to Pravit Rojanaphruk of Thai news site Khaosod English.

“The government can ill afford to impose another semi-lockdown as it has spent a lot of money over the past two years to remedy and contain COVID-19.

It is hesitant because further restrictions would adversely affect the latest Test & Go scheme for arrivals from abroad and further harm the tourism and related industries.

“Increasing vaccination is the way ahead as the government has enough vaccines now for a booster shot. Children will be a particular target group in the weeks ahead, but some parents are still reluctant. It's time to focus on normalising coexistence with COVID-19.”

Let’s keep fingers crossed that we are over the worst and soon we can return to a normal Land of the Smiles.
 

Discover Cigna’s range of health insurance solutions created for expats and local nationals living in Thailand - click to view

 

 

-- © Copyright  ASEAN NOW 2022-03-23

 

- Aetna offers a range of visa-compliant plans that meet the minimum requirement of medical treatment, including COVID-19, up to THB 3m. For more information on all expat health insurance plans click here.

 

- Follow ASEAN NOW on LINE for breaking COVID-19 updates

 

Get your business in front of millions of customers who read ASEAN NOW with an interest in Thailand every month - email [email protected] for more information

[ukrules]

I think as a country Thailand should  make the effort to copy exactly what the Chinese are doing, that way the glorious Chinese tourist will one day return.

 

[TallGuyJohninBKK]

1 hour ago, webfact said:

Thailand has so far administered 127,061,065 doses of Covid vaccines. This means if every person needs two doses, then 91.2% of the country’s population have been covered.

That calculation might be right in terms of mathematics, but it's wrong in terms of reality, because it doesn't figure in the fact that a lot of vaccine doses have been administered lately as 3rd shot booster doses to people who already had two.

 

So, the actual share of Thailand's population that's received TWO doses is about 72% overall...

 

But even that doesn't mean a lot because really THREE doses are recommended to best protect against the current Omicron variant and counteract waning vaccine effectiveness over time since the first two shots. And the three-dose share of the population right now is only 32%.

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by TallGuyJohninBKK

[kohorca]

…same it happen everywhere else, Omicron will hit, lot of peoples ( Thailand always late, even for that..). But everything gonna be alright as it is very virulent but not deadly as was the basic one.

 

[TheFishman1]

Nobody really knows the real numbers here just like what happens on the roads here they don’t really tell the real numbers they only record numbers of people who died right at the scene of the accident so if your name is going to the hospital he died they don’t count that Tik

[Swampy999]

And where does the World Health Organisation get the figures from ???????? They get the figures from a health department in each country, certain countries have a rather unique way of correlating their figures ????????

[jacko45k]

3 hours ago, ukrules said:

I think as a country Thailand should  make the effort to copy exactly what the Chinese are doing, that way the glorious Chinese tourist will one day return.

 

I know you are being ironic, but China is seriously on a path to nowhere, and needs to change direction. 

[ebean001]

here is a major count problem. many people get self tested at home. They get the virus but feel a little sick...sore throat, weak, little temperature.

They stay home, take a drug, get better. Many do this. they never show up in the numbers.  

[Petey11]

Any figures as stated are down to testing, and as in the OP, Thailand's are very low per Capita. Be interesting to see UK's figures come April when ATKs are no longer free unless you're in a vulnerable group. I know a fair number of people in Thailand who have tested positive and never been officially counted either by PCR or probable ATKs. Even the UK has an official undercount if you go by the ONS figures. Severe cases and deaths are the best guide now, both of which have crept up in Thailand over the past weeks. Time for Thai to get their vulnerable triple jabbed I think.

[Danderman123]

I am seeing a problem in Pattaya, which was hit hard a couple of months ago. You would think that the wave would have diminished by now, but as Isaan is being hard hit now, ladies are coming down from Isaan to work bar, and carry the virus with them. Shampoo, rinse, repeat.

[Excel]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

but as Isaan is being hard hit now, ladies are coming down from Isaan to work bar

Got any proof of that or just rambling as you have had a bad experience with a bar lady perhaps ?

[wealthychef]

This fixation on cases instead of hospitalizations and deaths is wrong headed.  Who cares if someone catches an OmiCold?  What is important is whether or not it kills people right?  If you keep your eye on the ball, you can see the real solution is much different than PCR tests in airports and regulations about alcohol during Songkran.  

[rwill]

Covid seems to be spreading more now here.  More and more people I know personally are getting it now.  Relatives and friends.  It's probably a good thing to let it run it's course.  It's just a matter of time before everyone is exposed to it.  At least lots of people now have been vaccinated.  

 

One of my grand nephews just got it from playing football/soccer.   He had one Pfiser shot before that.  His symptoms have been like a mild cold.  Seems to be recovering after about 3 days now.

[Danderman123]

4 minutes ago, Excel said:

Got any proof of that or just rambling as you have had a bad experience with a bar lady perhaps ?

What part do you disagree with?

[jacko45k]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

What part do you disagree with?

He is looking for arguments, do not feed. 

[Danderman123]

1 minute ago, wealthychef said:

This fixation on cases instead of hospitalizations and deaths is wrong headed.  Who cares if someone catches an OmiCold?  What is important is whether or not it kills people right?  If you keep your eye on the ball, you can see the real solution is much different than PCR tests in airports and regulations about alcohol during Songkran.  

As long as hospitalizations and intubations are low, you are correct.

 

[wealthychef]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

As long as hospitalizations and intubations are low, you are correct.

 

Agreed, I should have said "serious complications."  

[Dialemco]

4 hours ago, ukrules said:

I think as a country Thailand should  make the effort to copy exactly what the Chinese are doing, that way the glorious Chinese tourist will one day return.

 

So your suggestion is Thailand should follow China and close borders until Zero Covid thus isolating herself for the foreseeable future and then arrange travel bubble with China to allow return Chinese tourists only 

[richard_smith237]

4 hours ago, ukrules said:

I think as a country Thailand should  make the effort to copy exactly what the Chinese are doing, that way the glorious Chinese tourist will one day return.

 

China’s attempt at water- tight containment was working….  But the dam is about to burst and as the rest of the world moves on China is about to realise it could never stop covid anyway…. 
 

A massive outbreak is about to hit China, numbers are exponentially rising.

[richard_smith237]

4 hours ago, sungod said:

 

There are clearly outbreaks at schools…

But I can’t fathom how it’s not ‘bigger’… it seems to be a handful of cases per week and under control at my sons school ( 2000 kids ). There are daily announcements of 3 day class closures as kids have to ATK test weekly ( at home ).

 

Brining it home to ‘granny’ already happened as in-laws and wife picked up Covid from my Son ( or maybe the other way round ) - In-Laws vaccinated and boosted were fine, as was wife & son ( just cold symptoms ). 
 

The ‘don’t take it home to granny brigade’ need to change to ‘make sure granny is vaccinated brigade’…. 

[jacko45k]

8 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

China’s attempt at water- tight containment was working….  But the dam is about to burst and as the rest of the world moves on China is about to realise it could never stop covid anyway…. 
 

A massive outbreak is about to hit China, numbers are exponentially rising.

It may have been working and beneficial with earlier strains..... but with omicron B2, as contagious as measles, but less symptomatic and dangerous, surely they have to let it run and provide the herd immunity. 

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, ukrules said:

I think as a country Thailand should  make the effort to copy exactly what the Chinese are doing, that way the glorious Chinese tourist will one day return.

 

God forbid that ever happens again.

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

According to statistics published by the World Health Origination, Thailand now ranks thirty-four on the World table with 166,520 cases reported up to Monday March 20th.

Southeast Asia’s most affected country is Vietnam which recorded 1.913,928 cases in the same period.

Recorded... nuff said.

[sungod]

3 hours ago, richard_smith237 said:

 

For starters the booster campaign is very slow, I see complaints daily of people not having access to it here in Pattaya. Yesterday on Facebook people were complaining that the 500 doses that Bangkok Pattaya Hospital had were booked before it was advertised. Many elderly I know have not had a booster yet, but they are administering doses to healthy kids.

[richard_smith237]

8 minutes ago, sungod said:

For starters the booster campaign is very slow, I see complaints daily of people not having access to it here in Pattaya. Yesterday on Facebook people were complaining that the 500 doses that Bangkok Pattaya Hospital had were booked before it was advertised. Many elderly I know have not had a booster yet, but they are administering doses to healthy kids.

I agree….  That’s an issue of poor planning rather than vaccine availability. 

 

Many booking systems are online but many people are not tech savvy and need help to book. 

All hospitals should have walk-in availability by now, it doesn’t need to be complicated. 
 

Its easy in Bkk, but it seems outside of Bkk they can’t get it sorted in a simple manner….. TBH in Bkk it was a bit of cluster with massive queues at Bang Sue station ( super spreader event anyone ? ). 
 

I have said for a long time - it would have been easiest to vaccinate the at risk communities by setting up vaccinations posts at every hospital and temple ( with vans and a few nurses etc )….  The whole issue was Thailand trying to make the system digital with registration etc rather than just getting the job done. 

 

 

[wombat]

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

I know you are being ironic, but China is seriously on a path to nowhere, and needs to change direction. 

Are you saying we (insert nationality here) aren't?

[sungod]

2 minutes ago, richard_smith237 said:

I have said for a long time - it would have been easiest to vaccinate the at risk communities by setting up vaccinations posts at every hospital and temple ( with vans and a few nurses etc )….  The whole issue was Thailand trying to make the system digital with registration etc rather than just getting the job done. 

Couldn't agree more, I think the term is 'outreach' . In the UK it would be backed up with a free cup of tea, a biscuit and a chance for a chat!

 

I dont believe it's solely vaccine hesitancy in the elderly, they dont see major issues in their community so they dont think it will happen to them and therefore traveling some distance to sit in a queue does not appeal. But as you say, if you turn up on their doorstop then they many would accept.

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, wombat said:

Are you saying we (insert nationality here) aren't?

What China does is drastically different...... I never mentioned 'we' so no need to presume I said that. 

[khwaibah]

1. 

   Thai News Reports@ThaiNewsReports

   #COVID19 update on Wednesday
   25,164 new cases
   80 deaths
   237,128 active cases
   1,496 serious cases
   24,770 recovered
   
   Follow @ThaiNewsReports on Twitter or the website http://thainewsreports.com  for breaking news #Thailand#โควิดวันนี้ #ส่องทวิตยามเช้า

   

   1m

   •  
   •  
   •  
2.  

 

[vandeventer]

1 hour ago, jacko45k said:

I know you are being ironic, but China is seriously on a path to nowhere, and needs to change direction. 

China like Russia need their people to change directions, greed of land in this crowded world today is not on, their people acting as one against this is the only way to stop this.