Analysis/Opinion: Pressure is on Thai Government from all directions to drop and ease Covid-19 restrictions but it won’t happen yet. Here is why.

[the green light]

It has all suspicious about the COVID positive number reported. it is not the vaccine not working but it is about the population is not fully vaccinated or not interested of being vaccinated.  It seemed to be a large number of them more than 2 million. how many more younger people not willing to be vaccinated.

 

the whole economy is based on being vaccinated.

 

Best solution is for the  government should establish a door to door vaccination effort at old people home just like Israel to get them all vaccinated.  Old people are not easily persuaded to go over and get the shot.

 

If you prevent activities of younger people based on their vaccination card, they will all get vaccinated such as going out to eat, unable to go to a mall without your vaccination card, getting driver license for motorcycle, tickets on the road, or any other government interaction, including renewing the visa. people will wake up

 

 

 

[the green light]

I really do not see the connection between heavy restriction on arrival of vaccinated tourists and the number of the local positive COVID-19 . Thai people are getting infected local and not by the arrival of foreign tourists.

 

the percentage of some of the visitors carrying the infection is much less than 0.003% ...we are taking 70 people vs 20,000 visitor per day.  It is all relative the type of vaccine they got and how well their immune system is working.

In any case, their condition is recoverable in few days.

 

Right now, the norm is other population has received 2 shots of the Covid-19 vaccines plus one booster shot. anybody who travel will not leave home without having the 3 shots. So they should be free to enter any country with no restriction.

including  Thailand.

 

there is no need to do testing to enter Thailand. 

 

[peter zwart]

Besides the point if you vaccinated or dont want, i dont understand these restrictions at all. Omicron is already in Thailand and will go around. With or without incoming tourist. So what is the use of these restrictions?

[paulikens]

but it wont happen yet.....   SHOCK. HORROR

[metisdead]

An inflammatory post and a reply has been removed. 

[CygnusX1]

4 hours ago, ed strong said:

You suggest the Thai Governments gonna give 40 odd million people, over 10,000 baht each in order , in some cases 15,000 that roughly equals 400,000,000,000 baht away!? Plus all the associated costs that stop people getting 6 shots and taking 5,000 baht each time. A clerical and financial nightmare

400 billion baht = $US12 billion, not a huge sum for Thailand, compare annual GDP of $US500 billion, and compare revenue lost from tens of millions of tourist visits.

Agree logistics wouldn’t be easy, but don’t all Thais have an identity card?

[CG1 Blue]

5 hours ago, Pattaya Spotter said:

I wouldn't call the one nite stay a "quarantine," I mean you gotta stay somewhere unless you plan to sleep on the street. I think the second test is going away soon...and in any case a 15 minute self antigen test isnt much of in imposition.  If any of this is too much, people are free to go elsewhere.

It's not the one night stay that's the problem. It's the risk of testing positive and having to spend half of your holiday in Covid custody at great expense. 

Not many ordinary holidaymakers will take that risk. They'll go to places where you are not tested on arrival. 

 

And besides, testing tourists on arrival serves no purpose when Omicron is already rampant in Thailand. So the government is crushing the tourist industry for no reason. 

Apart from it helps their mates who own the SHA hotels and private hospitals...

[cheapcanuck]

The governments ears are deaf. 

[impulse]

5 hours ago, the green light said:

Best solution is for the  government should establish a door to door vaccination effort at old people home just like Israel to get them all vaccinated.  Old people are not easily persuaded to go over and get the shot.

So are you volunteering to hold them down while someone injects an experimental vaccine that they don't want?  Or take away young people's right to earn a living until they knuckle down and take a shot which hasn't been evaluated for long term side effects?

 

I got vaccinated.  As soon as it was practical.  But it was a personal choice.  I wouldn't dream of forcing it on anyone.

 

[spidermike007]

Always as much obfuscation of the real issue as possible. The incoming tourists are the ones taking the huge risk. Not the Thais. 

 

The lack of understanding, common sense and courage staggers the mind. 

[BayArea]

On 4/1/2022 at 5:52 PM, itsari said:

Vietnam relaxed there entry rules on the 15th of March 2022 . 

It will be interesting to see if there will be a surge in the number of visitors after a month .

Somehow I doubt it due to the continued problems with covid around the world .

Health wise and financially will keep the numbers way down . 

Do not forget that China continues to have travel restrictions .

Viet Nam as of this past Wednesday dropped all restrictions. No quarantine,  no insurance,  and no arrival testing. You only need to test negative before entering the country, a required procedure for most airlines around the world.  Thailand thinks they're doing us a favor by eliminating a process that is not accepted by international airlines. What Viet  Nam just did is a big time game changer.  We shall see how things play out. 

[metisdead]

Some offensive posts and the replies have been removed.

[puck2]

19 hours ago, CygnusX1 said:

400 billion baht = $US12 billion, not a huge sum for Thailand, compare annual GDP of $US500 billion, and compare revenue lost from tens of millions of tourist visits.

Agree logistics wouldn’t be easy, but don’t all Thais have an identity card?

„$US12 billion, not a huge sum for Thailand, compare annual GDP of $US500“

 

Very abstrus, it's easy to explain why.

1. this money – let us think of only 400 billion Baht = ~$US 12 billion - had to be payed out of the Thai budget. To compare this large summe with the GDP is nonsense, because it's not payed by the GDP, it has to be taken out of the budged. Like all payments by the state.

2. And the Thai budget is „a little bit“ smaller than your mentioned GDP of $US500 billion. The Thai budget for 2022 is ~3,1 trillion Thai Baht,

   Let me say the actual exchange rate is 1US = ~33,1 THB. Then the 3,1 trillion THB (=3.100 billion THB) has a vallue of 3.100 billion / 33,1 = 93,7 billion US$

3. If I compare now 12 billion US$ (payout to the Thai people) with the Thai budget of 3.100 billion then it would be 7,8% of the Thai budget. And you do think this is „not a huge sum for Thailand“ ???

4. Paying out this large amount of 400 billion Baht would cause another problem for the budget of the year 2022. This before explained 7,8 % would have to be cut (= taken off ) from other parts of the budged, already confirmed by the parliaent before October 2021 (=the start of the Thai budget-year)

[zzaa09]

17 hours ago, cheapcanuck said:

The governments ears are deaf. 

Even within metaphoric boundaries, their hearing ability is less concerning than other aspects. 

[CygnusX1]

4 hours ago, puck2 said:

1. Paying out this large amount of 400 billion Baht would cause another problem for the budget of the year 2022. This before explained 7,8 % would have to be cut (= taken off ) from other parts of the budged, already confirmed by the parliaent before October 2021 (=the start of the Thai budget-year)

This money wouldn’t have to be taken out of the next year’s budget as it could be borrowed - Governments do this all the time. Not ideal, but the economic consequences of not spending  money can be worse, in the case of Thailand the loss of tourism due to a poorly vaccinated population. As an example, the Australian Government added over $US 200 billion to Australia’s national debt in spending on Covid related stimulus, excluding health care. The long term consequences of servicing this debt were considered preferable to letting businesses go broke and converting a recession into a depression.

[bangkokbonecollector]

Pretty <deleted> poor journalism. The reason why they do not want to open up is because then people will have more freedom to protest against the government. Also, If they completely open up and all hell breaks loose, who is going to get the blame? what will that then lead to? yup, more protesting and another fragile reason the three finger massive will have to accuse the government of being immoral or inhumane.

[overherebc]

40 minutes ago, bangkokbonecollector said:

Pretty <deleted> poor journalism. The reason why they do not want to open up is because then people will have more freedom to protest against the government. Also, If they completely open up and all hell breaks loose, who is going to get the blame? what will that then lead to? yup, more protesting and another fragile reason the three finger massive will have to accuse the government of being immoral or inhumane.

I see it a little differently. If all entry is based on lets say 2 vax and 1 booster only, a lot of the Thais who can easily afford it will want to start travelling again and come back without risking time spent in any sort of quarantine, free or not. So, as well as your point, that would mean money going out, not coming in.

Just sayin' it's a maybe.

Edited April 3, 2022 by overherebc

[bangkokbonecollector]

17 minutes ago, overherebc said:

I see it a little differently. If all entry is based on lets say 2 vax and 1 booster only, a lot of the Thais who can easily afford it will want to start travelling again and come back without risking time spent in any sort of quarantine, free or not. So, as well as your point, that would mean money going out, not coming in.

Just sayin' it's a maybe.

Definitely a great point and I would totally concur with this assessment. I was thinking they do not want to loose all the extra revenue from the inflated single night hotels and PCR testes but then again surely they would make more having 5times that many additional tourists if there were little or no restrictions in places.

[Stargeezr]

At the start of the pandemic, Thailand got the Chinese vaccine, and look at China now, with their break outs, does that show how bad the

vaccine is? Now we hear of a lot of old people will not get a vaccine, is that a surprise? How about Hong Kong, what kind of vaccines were they given?

   I do hope the situation is a lot different by September, as it seems to be going slowly right now.

[pattaya1234was]

On 4/2/2022 at 6:45 AM, keithkarmann said:

200 baht would do it.

They could offer a 'package'. Vote and get vaccinated. I hope that is not too obtuse.

[adrianc]

that's true

[fusion58]

On 4/2/2022 at 2:14 AM, webfact said:

Well, let’s look at why Thailand isn’t moving faster. According to Public Health Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, about 2 million elderly and vulnerable have still not been fully vaccinated. Yes, many of these folks are by choice but the Thai government is doing all they can to practically beg these folks to get vaccinated.

If these people refuse to get vaccinated, then why allow them to dictate the terms of the reopening? Makes about as much sense as a screen door on a submarine.

[fusion58]

On 4/2/2022 at 2:14 AM, webfact said:

To be fair, the Thai government has slowly eased some restrictions, including an RT-PCR test before travel…

That’s not “fair” at all. In fact, it’s a meaningless gesture, given that most airlines still require pre-flight RT-PCR tests.

[starky]

So the whole reopening of Thailand is being put on hold for a couple million old people in Isaan? Naaaah not buying. Since when does anyone come before money on Thailand. What a ridiculous oped piece.