Prolonged Ukraine war to see Thai inflation at 6.3%, a stalled economy and a possible downgrade

[Bkk Brian]

48 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

Now your mixing apples and oranges. The discussion is since the war began not one year ago. Try and stay on track 

He's just another one clutching at straws..........???? Russian ruble has no chance of recovery in the longterm

Edited April 3, 2022 by Bkk Brian

[Airalee]

18 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

He's just another one clutching at straws..........???? Russian ruble has no chance of recovery in the longterm

No chance of recovery?  It’s almost there.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

9 minutes ago, Airalee said:

No chance of recovery?  It’s almost there.

 

 

I'll leave you with your famous last words and check back in 6 weeks time when the effects of the sanctions kick in and the economy is crippled. In the meantime feel free to buy the top...????

 

Russia’s Central Bank has just jacked up interest rates to 20%

Edited April 3, 2022 by Bkk Brian

[Airalee]

2 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

I'll leave you with your famous last words and check back in 6 weeks time when the effects of the sanctions kick in and the economy is crippled. In the meantime feel free to buy the top...????

We plebes weren’t able to buy any Russian stocks, corporate debt etc. when it was at the bottom (I tried). That privilege was only for the major investment houses such as Goldman Sachs & J.P. Morgan. I’m sure they made a fortune.  But isn’t that what wars are all about?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/wall-street-is-already-pouncing-on-russia-s-cheap-corporate-debt

[Bkk Brian]

Just now, Airalee said:

We plebes weren’t able to buy any Russian stocks, corporate debt etc. when it was at the bottom (I tried). That privilege was only for the major investment houses such as Goldman Sachs & J.P. Morgan. I’m sure they made a fortune.  But isn’t that what wars are all about?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-03/wall-street-is-already-pouncing-on-russia-s-cheap-corporate-debt

"But isn’t that what wars are all about?"

                 ^^^^No^^^^

[Airalee]

15 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

"But isn’t that what wars are all about?"

                 ^^^^No^^^^

Sure it is.  Been that way since the dawn of time.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_profiteering

[Bkk Brian]

11 minutes ago, Airalee said:

Sure it is.  Been that way since the dawn of time.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_profiteering

Profiteering from war is not why a war starts and certainly not why this illegal attack on Ukraine started

[whereyougo]

On 4/2/2022 at 12:51 PM, Adumbration said:

Possible downgrade?  How do you downgrade a third world country?

Which third world country???

[Saanim]

On 4/2/2022 at 5:29 PM, Adumbration said:

For more than a decade the middle class in Thailand (and many other countries for that matter) has been shrinking....rapidly.

How do you measure it? 

[Saanim]

On 4/2/2022 at 6:00 PM, ThailandRyan said:

He backed out and they can continue paying how they were before....your not looking at the news are you....the rouble has not risen, look at the link I posted above.

He did not back up, just made it more realistic for the payment change, it's not that easy. 

Who would suffer the most from the total shut off? Surely not the kind politicians who in each sentence of their wonderful speeches place how they care for the (e.g. American) people.

 

BTW, the gas is still flowing as it has been flowing uninterruptible during 40 years of sanctions.  Currently, the number of Russian sanctions is higher than tally of all world sanctions.  (and do not tell me that the Russians would not survive without the gas export, they had survived few more serious disasters).

 

BTW, the Russian oil supply to USA is also still flowing, isn't it? A quiet exemption from the sanctions... 

[Saanim]

On 4/2/2022 at 2:53 PM, Cake Monster said:

I really can see Thailand taking a huge hit over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The hits will come in the form of massive Commodity rises that are going to affect the manufacturing Market and Exports

Commodities such as Palladium - used in Cat Converters in Vehicle Manufacture,

Platinum - Ditto

Nickel, used in Stainless Steel mainly

Wheat 

Fertilisers

To name just a few Commodities that are supplied in huge amounts by either Russia or Ukraine.

And then of course there is the cost of Oil and Gas, of which Thailand uses a lot of Gas for Electricity Production

One more commodity hasn't been mentioned (actually not coming from Ukraine): Uran and his processing.

 

I know, it will not be so drastic for Thailand (not having yet nuclear power plants) as it will be for many other countries with their developed nuclear industries depending on Russian supplies.

 

And similarly, also the above mentioned commodities are not so drastically needed for Thai export that is more focused on consumer products.

 

Whether steel production (is here any?) will suffer by a nickel lack deficiency? 

Or by not so many wheat for Thailand?  (How much wheat does Thailand need?)   

 

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

45 minutes ago, Saanim said:

He did not back up, just made it more realistic for the payment change, it's not that easy. 

Who would suffer the most from the total shut off? Surely not the kind politicians who in each sentence of their wonderful speeches place how they care for the (e.g. American) people.

 

BTW, the gas is still flowing as it has been flowing uninterruptible during 40 years of sanctions.  Currently, the number of Russian sanctions is higher than tally of all world sanctions.  (and do not tell me that the Russians would not survive without the gas export, they had survived few more serious disasters).

 

BTW, the Russian oil supply to USA is also still flowing, isn't it? A quiet exemption from the sanctions... 

Russia stated: 

It will halt gas exports to so-called “unfriendly” countries by April 1 unless they comply with his directive to make payment in rubles

 

Following refusal of countries to adhere to this Russia then stated:

Russia will not immediately demand that buyers pay for its gas exports in roubles, the Kremlin said on Wednesday, promising a gradual shift.

 

They backed up no matter how you try to spin it.

 

BTW the US has already banned imports of Russian oil and natural gas purchases. So no not as you claim a quiet exemption from sanctions

 

[ThailandRyan]

57 minutes ago, Saanim said:

He did not back up, just made it more realistic for the payment change, it's not that easy. 

Who would suffer the most from the total shut off? Surely not the kind politicians who in each sentence of their wonderful speeches place how they care for the (e.g. American) people.

 

BTW, the gas is still flowing as it has been flowing uninterruptible during 40 years of sanctions.  Currently, the number of Russian sanctions is higher than tally of all world sanctions.  (and do not tell me that the Russians would not survive without the gas export, they had survived few more serious disasters).

 

BTW, the Russian oil supply to USA is also still flowing, isn't it? A quiet exemption from the sanctions... 

More dreaming. You really should research before you post.

[Saanim]

46 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Russia stated: 

It will halt gas exports to so-called “unfriendly” countries by April 1 unless they comply with his directive to make payment in rubles

 

Following refusal of countries to adhere to this Russia then stated:

Russia will not immediately demand that buyers pay for its gas exports in roubles, the Kremlin said on Wednesday, promising a gradual shift.

 

They backed up no matter how you try to spin it.

 

BTW the US has already banned imports of Russian oil and natural gas purchases. So no not as you claim a quiet exemption from sanctions

Actually, they did not back up from the rubel payment, just postpone, enabling to establish the ruble accounts at a bank that is functioning.      

 

41 minutes ago, ThailandRyan said:

More dreaming. You really should research before you post.

In fact, I do not research about these silly things, leaving this to others.

 

Did the ships make a U-turn on the way to USA?

But we do not read/hear so much about these oil imports unlike about the banned North Stream 2, do we?

 

MARCH 22, 2022

The United States imports more petroleum products than crude oil from Russia

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51738

 

April 03, 2022

US increases oil imports from Russia by 43% : Russian Official
https://www.aninews.in/news/world/europe/us-increases-oil-imports-from-russia-by-43-russian-official20220403224201/
 

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Saanim

[Cake Monster]

1 hour ago, Saanim said:

One more commodity hasn't been mentioned (actually not coming from Ukraine): Uran and his processing.

 

I know, it will not be so drastic for Thailand (not having yet nuclear power plants) as it will be for many other countries with their developed nuclear industries depending on Russian supplies.

 

And similarly, also the above mentioned commodities are not so drastically needed for Thai export that is more focused on consumer products.

 

Whether steel production (is here any?) will suffer by a nickel lack deficiency? 

Or by not so many wheat for Thailand?  (How much wheat does Thailand need?)   

 

 

 

I specifically quoted Palladium and Platinum, as quantities of both are used in the Manufacture of Catalytic Converter Exhausts for the Motor Industry.

Vehicle Exports are a huge part  of the Thai Export Market, both in finished vehicles and Spare Parts Etc.

This sector of the Export Trade will take a significant hit from the lack of Commodities and their pricing.

As for the other Commodities I mentioned, they are all used to varying degrees by all Countries

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, Saanim said:

Actually, they did not back up from the rubel payment, just postpone, enabling to establish the ruble accounts at a bank that is functioning.      

 

In fact, I do not research about these silly things, leaving this to others.

 

Did the ships make a U-turn on the way to USA?

But we do not read/hear so much about these oil imports unlike about the banned North Stream 2, do we?

 

MARCH 22, 2022

The United States imports more petroleum products than crude oil from Russia

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51738

 

April 03, 2022

US increases oil imports from Russia by 43% : Russian Official
https://www.aninews.in/news/world/europe/us-increases-oil-imports-from-russia-by-43-russian-official20220403224201/
 

 

You need to do a lot better research than that:

 

The source for this is from Sputnik which in turn is a Kremlin controlled media site

https://www.aninews.in/news/world/europe/us-increases-oil-imports-from-russia-by-43-russian-official20220403224201/

 

Your second link is for oil imports up to 2021 only

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51738

 

No Sputnik is not credible and I believe nothing they spew out.

 

As for Russia walking back on the ruble payments, I already provided the links and already anticipated your spin

 

Edited April 4, 2022 by Bkk Brian

[Saanim]

19 minutes ago, Cake Monster said:

I specifically quoted Palladium and Platinum, as quantities of both are used in the Manufacture of Catalytic Converter Exhausts for the Motor Industry.

Vehicle Exports are a huge part  of the Thai Export Market, both in finished vehicles and Spare Parts Etc.

This sector of the Export Trade will take a significant hit from the lack of Commodities and their pricing.

As for the other Commodities I mentioned, they are all used to varying degrees by all Countries

I think the Thai car industries mainly assembly the parts that are made in the countries of the brand origin - Japan, etc.

 

[Saanim]

15 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

No Sputnik is not credible and I believe nothing they spew out.

 

As for Russia walking back on the ruble payments, I already provided the links and already anticipated your spin

3 Apr, 2022

Slovakia agrees to pay for Russian gas in rubles

The country cannot afford to lose its major supplier...

(no link 'cause not credible...)

[Bkk Brian]

4 minutes ago, Saanim said:

3 Apr, 2022

Slovakia agrees to pay for Russian gas in rubles

The country cannot afford to lose its major supplier...

(no link 'cause not credible...)

To add a little context for you from a credible source:

 

Slovak minister says paying in roubles an option, country needs gas

 

PRAGUE, April 3 (Reuters) - The economy minister of Slovakia, which relies on Russian gas for around 85% of its demand, said the country could not be cut off from Russian gas flows and if it had to pay in roubles it would, although it backed taking a common European Union stance.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/slovak-minister-says-paying-roubles-could-be-an-option-country-needs-gas-2022-04-03/

 

[ThailandRyan]

2 hours ago, Saanim said:

3 Apr, 2022

Slovakia agrees to pay for Russian gas in rubles

The country cannot afford to lose its major supplier...

(no link 'cause not credible...)

Are you Slovakia's spokesperson, and is that why there is no link.

 

Try this one and then please stop disseminating misinformation as Slovakia has backtracked on the earlier statements you posted.

https://www.userwalls.com/n/slovakia-stay-united-eu-russian-gas-payment-demands-pm-3046419/

Slovakia will act in unison with the European Union against Russia's gas payments demands, Prime Minister Eduard Heger said after a minister raised the option of paying in roubles if necessary to keep gas flowing.

[BusyB]

On 4/2/2022 at 8:56 PM, KhaoYai said:

Roughly translated for us everyday folk - the rich got richer whilst the poor got poorer. Yes, those who are able have done reasonably well but social mobility for the masses is nigh on impossible. Believe it or not, there is still a substantial portion of the working population who earn less than 10,000 per month.

 

Whenever I read these studies/predictions/forecasts I have to ask the question, in a country where a large proportion of the population don't pay tax or social security so are therefore unrecorded, where do they get their figures from?

 

Its true that the country is (was) developing but like so many other countries, real world, social polarisation is growing. It must also be remembered that it is the lowest paid in Thailand who often have to support aging parents - further restricting their ability to improve their lives.  Their 'middle class' counterparts are likely to come from a 'middle class' background and as such, their parents are less likely to need support.

 

It is also, precisely this 'lower' portion of the employed population that have been more exposed to the economic devastation caused by the Covid 19 Pandemic - the tourist and hospitality industries are famous for low pay.

It's long been acknowledged that GDP is a pretty bad way of judging economic progress. And it's no surprise that the powers that be don't want to take the logical action based on that fact.

A huge chunk of GDP in many countries is just bits and bytes on financial computers whose only effect is to make the poor poorer. But as long as the numbers get bigger, hey! GDP's up!

A good friend of mine works 13 days out of 14, 10 hours a day, for 13000 baht a month.

No sick pay. No holiday beyond a minimum after she's been employed for 2 or 3 years. Got no pay when she had her baby because she hadn't worked there long enough. She was back at work a couple of weeks after a caesarian. Tens of millions live like that in Thailand. 

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

those are great news, maybe the baht will go lower 15-20% as it should

[SCOTT FITZGERSLD]

On 4/2/2022 at 5:51 AM, Adumbration said:

Possible downgrade?  How do you downgrade a third world country?

exactly.

[ivor bigun]

19 hours ago, SCOTT FITZGERSLD said:

those are great news, maybe the baht will go lower 15-20% as it should

if only dreams came true

[placeholder]

On 4/4/2022 at 12:26 PM, Saanim said:

3 Apr, 2022

Slovakia agrees to pay for Russian gas in rubles

The country cannot afford to lose its major supplier...

(no link 'cause not credible...)

I certainly hope that this doesn't turn out to be the case. With the mighty economy of Slovakia consuming oil and gas from Russia, the boycott will surely fail. After all, Slovakia with a population of 5.5 million and ranked either 61st in GDP (nominal) or 68th (PPP) worldwide, is an unstoppable economic colossus.

[TropicalGuy]

On 4/2/2022 at 12:35 PM, Jingthing said:

More likely than not this insane war of choice by Russia will be very prolonged.

 

STARTING a war is the easy part.

The War unfortunately needs to be prolonged so Russia is bled dry and can never threaten Ukraine or NATO again. Regrettably Ukraine is Wrecked but this was always going to be the minimum consequence of Russian viewpoint. 

[TropicalGuy]

On 4/2/2022 at 1:00 PM, ThailandRyan said:

Thailand is not as you call it a third world country, they are a developing nation who has more millionaires and billionaires than some bigger economy countries.  The issue is that they are also loosing more to deaths then they are gaining in new births which creates a stability and income issue.

 

https://www.investopedia.com/updates/top-developing-countries/

Thailand

• GDP (2019): $543.55 billion21
• Population (2019): 69.62 million16
• GDP per Capita (2019): $7,806.717
• HDI (2020): 0.77718

 

Thailand is a developing country.12

 

The Kingdom of Thailand is the second-largest economy in Southeast Asia.121 Thailand has a free-market economy, with a relatively well-developed infrastructure. About two-thirds of the country's GDP is derived from exports of electronics, agricultural commodities, automobiles and parts, processed foods, and other goods.122 Over the last four decades, the country has moved from a low-income to an upper-income country by making substantial progress in social and economic development.123 Since becoming a constitutional monarchy in 1932, it has experienced 19 military coups. More recently, pro-democracy protests have been ongoing since Feb. 2020.122

 



Thailand is clearly NOT “developing”. Many billionaires ? How could it not with the Worlds WORST Wealth Distribution with 1/2% owning 70% wealth with massive 13% Poverty and terrible education system, road deaths carnage of the young & very low national average IQ 90.
 

Bangkok Chinese Thais DOMINATE the Wealth, High Society and Best Universities. Culture is Passive Fatalistic Ancient. “ Face” means Zero Personal Responsibility. Simply Cant Change. Can’t Modernize. Thailand is Not Taiwan. 

[CartagenaWarlock]

Spectacular ruble come back. Now it is trading almost the same as at the start of the war. How did Russia achieve this feat? By demanding all gas payments in ruble, thereby forcing buyer to put buy demand on ruble? It's now the top performing currency in the month of March. The enormous hole created in the sanctions for easy buying of Russian gas by European countries, specially by Germany so that its people don't suffer. As soon as India realized the nifty trick played by the western countries, they  jumped in and abstained from voting in UN criticizing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and started negotiating with Russia for cheaper oil imports. Now there is a steady flow of foreign  currency to Russia. Russia holds around 640 Billion dollar worth of foreign  currency in European and USA banks which are under sanctions except the western countries left a big hole for their own benefits. Interest payments on Russian foreign currency denominated sovereign bonds are exempted and US treasuries allowed intermediaries to process payments from those banks for interest payments of Russian dollar denominated sovereign bonds. By increasing the interest rate to 20%, the central bank of Russia almost tempted Russians to keep their ruble in their own banks, instead of withdrawing it  in dollar or Euro. Russia also forced exporters to convert 80% their foreign currency remittances  into rubles. 

[ThailandRyan]

4 hours ago, CartagenaWarlock said:

Spectacular ruble come back. Now it is trading almost the same as at the start of the war. How did Russia achieve this feat? By demanding all gas payments in ruble, thereby forcing buyer to put buy demand on ruble? It's now the top performing currency in the month of March. The enormous hole created in the sanctions for easy buying of Russian gas by European countries, specially by Germany so that its people don't suffer. As soon as India realized the nifty trick played by the western countries, they  jumped in and abstained from voting in UN criticizing Russia for its invasion of Ukraine and started negotiating with Russia for cheaper oil imports. Now there is a steady flow of foreign  currency to Russia. Russia holds around 640 Billion dollar worth of foreign  currency in European and USA banks which are under sanctions except the western countries left a big hole for their own benefits. Interest payments on Russian foreign currency denominated sovereign bonds are exempted and US treasuries allowed intermediaries to process payments from those banks for interest payments of Russian dollar denominated sovereign bonds. By increasing the interest rate to 20%, the central bank of Russia almost tempted Russians to keep their ruble in their own banks, instead of withdrawing it  in dollar or Euro. Russia also forced exporters to convert 80% their foreign currency remittances  into rubles. 

Your talking misinformation. Putin backed down on the rubles for payment of fuel.  Raising interest rates also made things more expensive as far as those in the country making payments on CCs or businesses repaying loans 

 

Putin may have been able to keep the rouble afloat but it can not last and will cause the economy to eventually collapse under the weight of its own making.

 

 

[Saanim]

On 4/5/2022 at 5:04 PM, placeholder said:

I certainly hope that this doesn't turn out to be the case. With the mighty economy of Slovakia consuming oil and gas from Russia, the boycott will surely fail. After all, Slovakia with a population of 5.5 million and ranked either 61st in GDP (nominal) or 68th (PPP) worldwide, is an unstoppable economic colossus.

Who would like to suffer more than the Russians? (and the Americans)

 

Germany resists EU ban on Russian gas as bloc prepares new sanctions

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-moving-step-by-step-toward-russian-energy-embargo-habeck-2022-04-04/