In Thailand, the war in Ukraine divides the generations

[MrJ2U]

6 hours ago, vandeventer said:

Young or old who would stand with Putin's Russia? I would rather live in a cave without his oil and gas that supports him in this massive killing of the Ukraine people. I can't see how India and the EU can do this, there must be other places they can go for oil and gas, like the USA which has the most oil and LPG in the world but has no interest in doing the right thing by helping out other countries not even there own.

It's logistically impossible to get the gas needed to the EU from the USA at the moment.

 

India is another story.  

 

 

[earthscar]

4 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

It's logistically impossible to get the gas needed to the EU from the USA at the moment.

 

India is another story.  

 

 

Not an inaccurate statement, but there are a lot of nuances there. At the same time, there is no way to completely cut themselves off from gas from Russia that doesn't mean that they have no options. They can't stop imports today, but there are steps they can and are to mitigate and lessen their reliance. I want to think that if Russia continues to commit atrocities on the scale, they are that even should it be "impossible" to cut their oil ties, they would do so, and they would be supported in any way possible by those countries able to do so. 

 

Some of the things ppl gave up during WW2 we could consider requirements today, and while this, as of yet, isn't WW3, the actions Russia is taking in Ukraine should fall under "never again," IMO. War crimes are being caught on video daily. At what point does having the power to our PS5 outstrip stop mass murder, rape, and genocide?

[impulse]

31 minutes ago, MrJ2U said:

It's logistically impossible to get the gas needed to the EU from the USA at the moment.

 

India is another story.  

True, but transitory.  The bigger picture is that if Germany quits buying gas from Russia, they'll have to buy it elsewhere, and that will displace the countries that will have to find a new source, and that will lead back eventually to Russia selling their gas to someone who isn't in on the sanctions.  

 

So what has that particular sanction accomplished other than driving up the world price of Russia's main export product(s)?

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by impulse

[earthscar]

Just now, impulse said:

True, but transitory.  The bigger picture is that if Germany quits buying gas from Russia, they'll have to buy it elsewhere, and that will displace the countries that will have to find a new source, and that will lead back eventually to Russia selling their gas to someone who isn't in on the sanctions.  

 

So what has that particular sanction accomplished other than driving up the world price of Russia's main export product(s)?

 

That only assumes that would be the only place we would pressure. The most likely customer would be China and India, and we are now actively making it clear that if anyone attempted to subvert sanctions being put in place, actions would be taken to make them regret it. 

 

It is worth noting there are countries along Russia's border that get almost all of their imports from Russia, so this isn't an easy problem to solve, and yet again, at some point, the cost in horror should out weight the hardships we would need to deal w/. 

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/ 

 

this is 2020 but from what i remember reading recently that hasn't changed much. 

[Dcheech]

Quote

"Antagonism towards the US, which some establishment figures accuse of stoking Thailand’s recent youth-led protests, has also shaped conservative responses to the conflict"

In Thailand they always have to find something/someone to blame. The protests and the "youth" who lead them cannot be protesting on their own, that would be un-Thai. No, the evil thoughts and ideas must come from outside of Thailand. The US and the west in this case. Yawn. 

[impulse]

5 minutes ago, earthscar said:

That only assumes that would be the only place we would pressure. The most likely customer would be China and India, and we are now actively making it clear that if anyone attempted to subvert sanctions being put in place, actions would be taken to make them regret it. 

If you were to keep Russian oil and gas completely out of the international market, it would drive the prices up high enough to collapse the world economy. 

 

Not an attractive outcome.

[ozimoron]

13 minutes ago, impulse said:

If you were to keep Russian oil and gas completely out of the international market, it would drive the prices up high enough to collapse the world economy. 

 

Not an attractive outcome.

That may not be true and in fact may actually save the planet by hastening the transition to green energy.

 

The Green federal economics minister, Robert Habeck, answered with a decisive “yes it can”, a day after the chancellor, Olaf Scholz, announced the suspension of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was meant to deliver from Russia as much as 70% of Germany’s gas requirements. There are considerable doubts as to whether the $11bn project will ever now go ahead.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/25/can-germany-function-without-vladimir-putins-gas

[earthscar]

6 minutes ago, impulse said:

If you were to keep Russian oil and gas entirely out of the international market, it would drive the prices up high enough to collapse the world economy. 

 

Not an attractive outcome.

There is a discussion about the fallout that will be felt the world around, but I have not seen anyone say it will collapse the world economy. I'm all for reading otherwise, a a link to a reputable news article? There are a lot of factors that are in play. The least of which is how long the ban would be in place. Russia is teetering on collapse; a broader ban on their oil exports and denying them of the china and Indian markets would most likely be the last straw. The few players left that could purchase from them don't consume enough to replace the income lost. 

 

At some point, you can't let the bully keep bulling you, or he will never stop and will get worse. Crimea was a prime example of this. Putin has made it quite clear that he will not stop empire-building until the USSR is back in its glory. 

[impulse]

40 minutes ago, earthscar said:

That only assumes that would be the only place we would pressure. The most likely customer would be China and India, and we are now actively making it clear that if anyone attempted to subvert sanctions being put in place, actions would be taken to make them regret it. 

 

It is worth noting there are countries along Russia's border that get almost all of their imports from Russia, so this isn't an easy problem to solve, and yet again, at some point, the cost in horror should out weight the hardships we would need to deal w/. 

 

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1201743/russian-gas-dependence-in-europe-by-country/ 

 

this is 2020 but from what i remember reading recently that hasn't changed much. 

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-expects-earn-96-bln-more-april-due-high-oil-prices-2022-04-05/

 

Unintended consequences, anyone?

 

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, impulse said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-expects-earn-96-bln-more-april-due-high-oil-prices-2022-04-05/

 

Unintended consequences, anyone?

 

Or perhaps another reason Putin started the war apart from an outright land grab or a chance to cement his place in Russian history before he dies of cancer.

[spidermike007]

The old guard are not only conservative and conventional in their thinking, they tend to also be far less conscious. Saying you are OK with the Ukraine war, is like admitting you are morally bankrupt. Sure, go ahead and slaughter women and children. We support you. 

 

Thailand desperately needs their youth to take control. Out with the dinosaurs. 

[ozimoron]

2 minutes ago, spidermike007 said:

The old guard are not only conservative and conventional in their thinking, they tend to also be far less conscious. Saying you are OK with the Ukraine war, is like admitting you are morally bankrupt. Sure, go ahead and slaughter women and children. We support you. 

 

Thailand desperately needs their youth to take control. Out with the dinosaurs. 

It's really sad that these are the flower power hippie generation who were going to be the enlightened generation and make sure this kind of corrosive thinking got buried forever. Unfortunately, those who claimed history always repeats itself are right.

[impulse]

38 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

52 minutes ago, impulse said:

If you were to keep Russian oil and gas completely out of the international market, it would drive the prices up high enough to collapse the world economy. 

 

Not an attractive outcome.

That may not be true and in fact may actually save the planet by hastening the transition to green energy.

In the short and medium terms, it's more likely to send countries back to burning their own coal and to support even less sustainable and riskier methods of producing oil and gas.

 

If you think about it, coal "saved the planet" by preventing countries from burning all their trees, and oil and gas "saved the planet" again by offering a cleaner alternative to mining and burning coal and cutting down forests to burn wood.

 

Imagine Thailand with 60 baht diesel and twice the price for electricity, which is 65% gas fired...  Not a pretty picture

 

Edited April 6, 2022 by impulse

[Adumbration]

11 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

Fortunately the young are the future not the dinosaurs

Not yet.  The dinos are just getting started.  Wait until China moves on Taiwan and the regime here pledges allegiance.

[earthscar]

12 minutes ago, impulse said:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-expects-earn-96-bln-more-april-due-high-oil-prices-2022-04-05/

 

Unintended consequences, anyone?

 

And if that meant their economy was successfully dealing w/ the sanctions, it would mean something. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-economic-defences-likely-crumble-over-time-under-sanctions-onslaught-2022-02-25/

 

An interesting all-around article it says their economy has baked in protections from sanctions similar to what we have in place. It mentions that the loopholes for oil are part of why it's doing so well against said sanctions. But as a whole, while they will make a profit(all oil companies are atm), in the more larger picture, their economy is decimated and will take generations to come back. In a few metrics, this could look positive for them, but as a whole. not so much.

 

I found an article from a journalist-owned news agency that claimed a 600billion hit to the economy, but I couldn't find something similar from routers/BBC/etc., so take it with a grain of salt. from what I could gather it seems like a reputable group with no apparent signs of bias/corruption

 

https://thebarentsobserver.com/ru/node/414

 

The Sanctions are having an effect, and stricter ones, especially if we discourage china and India from hindering them, will see(force) a change in Russia's actions. 

[earthscar]

4 minutes ago, impulse said:

In the short and medium terms, it's more likely to send countries back to burning their own coal and to support even less sustainable and riskier methods of producing oil and gas.

 

If you think about it, coal "saved the planet" by preventing countries from burning all their trees, and oil and gas "saved the planet" again by offering a cleaner alternative to mining and burning coal and cutting down forests to burn wood.

 

Imagine Thailand with 60 baht diesel and twice the price for electricity, which is 65% gas fired...  Not a pretty picture

 

We may(are) going to see that but at the same time it is actually forcing a exceleration of greener tech aswell. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/ev-sales-soar-in-2022/

 

There are a whole host of articles about discussions in countries on increasing green tech so they are not forced to rely on dangerous partners. As of yet there is no concrete plan but there is a common refrain across all major news orgs(ruters/etc) that one of the focuses is on green tech. 

 

will we see a coal increase at the start? sure but green tech has shown that it is the better long-term way to back a country's energy needs. That is not in question. the time to roll out said green tech is. 

[ozimoron]

13 minutes ago, earthscar said:

We may(are) going to see that but at the same time it is actually forcing a exceleration of greener tech aswell. 

 

https://www.forbes.com/wheels/news/ev-sales-soar-in-2022/

 

There are a whole host of articles about discussions in countries on increasing green tech so they are not forced to rely on dangerous partners. As of yet there is no concrete plan but there is a common refrain across all major news orgs(ruters/etc) that one of the focuses is on green tech. 

 

will we see a coal increase at the start? sure but green tech has shown that it is the better long-term way to back a country's energy needs. That is not in question. the time to roll out said green tech is. 

Sadly, the world has had ample warning since 1973 about what replying on a cartel for oil means and ignoring the challenge to move to green tech. Some countries have done better than others but none have really stepped up to what is needed by fully supporting the IPCC. Now Russia is making hay while the sun shines and thumbing its nose at the West.

[earthscar]

1 minute ago, ozimoron said:

Sadly, the world has had ample warning since 1973 about what replying on a cartel for oil means and ignoring the challenge to move to green tech. Some countries have done better than others but none have really stepped up to what is needed by fully supporting the IPCC. Now Russia is making hay while the sun shines and thumbing its nose at the West.

can't argue with that... too many things across almost every aspect of humanity for proof otherwise. That being said we do make changes when we are forced and in this case, we have already seen them. NATO was on shaky ground thanks in large part due to Trump and the overall laziness of NATO members. It's now stronger than it has ever been. Finland was pro neutrality has over 50% of this pop wanting to join NATO now. 

 

Germany has shifted their stance on wartime footing..Its looking like after the changes go into effect their spending will make them the 3rd largest in the world($$ wise) which is impressive. There was an amusing tweet about how the world was okay with this.. can't find it sadly.

 

Russia is forcing us all to make changes we were loath to do because it would cost us $$ all the more horrible that it took genocide and mass rape to make them. 

[ozimoron]

34 minutes ago, earthscar said:

Germany has shifted their stance on wartime footing..Its looking like after the changes go into effect their spending will make them the 3rd largest in the world($$ wise) which is impressive. There was an amusing tweet about how the world was okay with this.. can't find it sadly.

 

Russia is forcing us all to make changes we were loath to do because it would cost us $$ all the more horrible that it took genocide and mass rape to make them. 

Second time in a century. Unfortunately, Germany has always had its fair share of Russian appeasers. Fascist like fascists.

[aussienam]

9 hours ago, TropicalGuy said:

Russians descended from, occupied for 250 years by & strongly admire the savage merciless Mongols and adopted all their brutal war tactics including indiscriminate savagery against military & civilians, including their own civilians! Raped every female aged 8 to 80 they could find between Moscow and Berlin 1942-45.

All well documented….

As previously relayed by my now deceased German father, that when he lived in Berlin: as a small child, he witnessed Russian soldiers at the end of WWII raping his young sister, who was only a little girl, leaving an imprint that caused him lifelong trauma, a broken marriage, alcoholism and a tragic ending.  

Pedophile soldiers using war as an excuse to rape little children.  Disgusting and evil.  I feel sorry for the children suffering in the Ukraine.  Horrors beyond what most of us will ever experience.  

[Mac Mickmanus]

44 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Second time in a century. Unfortunately, Germany has always had its fair share of Russian appeasers. Fascist like fascists.

Hitler and Stalin didn't get on too well 

[ozimoron]

1 minute ago, Mac Mickmanus said:

Hitler and Stalin didn't get on too well 

Merkel, Schroder and Putin did.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/germany-angela-merkel-power-to-vladimir-putin-russia

[baboon]

9 hours ago, TropicalGuy said:

Russians descended from, occupied for 250 years by & strongly admire the savage merciless Mongols and adopted all their brutal war tactics including indiscriminate savagery against military & civilians, including their own civilians! Raped every female aged 8 to 80 they could find between Moscow and Berlin 1942-45.

All well documented….

Russians are ordinary folk just like us. Demonising them will just create angst in your own heart, not to mention bolstering the politics of hate. I urge you not to take the path of least resistance. Focus instead on the super rich who will have we, the common and decent folk tear each other apart in order to protect their capital and power..

Love and understanding is what they fear. Therefore we need much more of it.

[earthscar]

11 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Merkel, Schroder and Putin did.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/05/germany-angela-merkel-power-to-vladimir-putin-russia

Can't speak for Schroder due not having even the slightest past tracking his political career in Germany and I can't claim much more for Merkel. I would say as an outsider my impression of Merkel was that she was strategic and any affection you might be able to claim with her and Putin was political in nature and not admiration. Germany was tied very tightly to the Oil out of Russia but that's a claim that most of EU has and shouldn't be the sole thing to condemn her prior stances. 

[earthscar]

5 minutes ago, baboon said:

Russians are ordinary folk just like us. Demonising them will just create angst in your own heart, not to mention bolstering the politics of hate. I urge you not to take the path of least resistance. Focus instead on the super rich who will have we, the common and decent folk tear each other apart in order to protect their capital and power..

Love and understanding is what they fear. Therefore we need much more of it.

True enough I condemn what Russia is doing but at the same time am fully aware as a US citizen my government and my support of my government, even if in taxes only, has lead to alot of atrocities across the globe. The significance is that I don't think the wrongs of my Government preclude me to want others to do better. I can push for positive changes, though damn if it doesn't seem slow, in the USA while still demanding Russia be held accountable. 

 

I'm one of those "<deleted>" that would support the USA signing onto the ICC and allowing it to hold US soldiers accountable for any heinous act they were to commit while acting in a US war. One small additional action that would hopefully make it so the US would think long and hard before it used boots on the ground. 

 

At the same time, I would also support having some of our troops take a vacation in Ukraine right now. As well as taxes and other actions to give aid and support to Ukraine. I accept as I am not a soldier that the most effective way for me to assist Ukraine is thru financial/economic hardship. Tax the right would be a good first step. Bezo and his pals did well the last 2 years alone..there is a lot of fat there to trim. 

[Lacessit]

8 hours ago, jcojco said:

you must be very old, and very misinformed. Like most of the TV sheeps ...

Just wondering what your previous identity on ASEAN was.

Help us out here, post a link to your brand of information. Although that may not work too well if the link has the suffix .ru.

[Stygge]

6 hours ago, impulse said:

True, but transitory.  The bigger picture is that if Germany quits buying gas from Russia, they'll have to buy it elsewhere, and that will displace the countries that will have to find a new source, and that will lead back eventually to Russia selling their gas to someone who isn't in on the sanctions.  

 

So what has that particular sanction accomplished other than driving up the world price of Russia's main export product(s)?

 

Europe is mainly dependent on Russian gas, not gasoline. The gas is hard to transport. You really need pipelines if you don´t want to freeze it to liquid and transport it on ships. Russia don´t have any major pipelines to China or India. It´s gonna take many years to build. So Russia will suffer, be sure. Gasoline they can probably sell on the black market but to a fraction of the market value.

Europe was in the transit for green tech energy anyway so this just hasten the process. It will cost more since it now must be done quicker. But after that the Russians will have nothing to sell to the world.
War is not won by militaristic strong men with big guns. It´s won by economy, and in that field Russia is a dwarf and will sink even further down. Today they rival Italy in economic terms. Tomorrow they will have to compare themselves with North Korea.

[Stygge]

13 hours ago, BestB said:

Up until mass media hysteria most did not know what Ukraine was , where it was or what it was.

 

Do not agree with war but also do not agree with American manipulations.

 

MSM pound a Russia and yet not only do not report but cover up Ukrainian officials calling on mass murder of all Russians any time , any place. And in case many forgotten or were not aware Ukraine was a willing collaborator with Nazi on Jewish people extermination.Babi Yar ,Nazi battalions still in existence and still have nazi SS as a flag , now called Azov.

 

But for some unknown reason MSM and the rest seem to totally ignore it  and arm them . Weird if you asked me 

Russian troll propaganda is effective in Russia with no choice in news is given, but you don´t often see it where free media is available, so it´s interesting to see you embracing it.
It´s worth mentioning that what you call nazis only got 2 percent of the votes in the latest free election in Ukraine. By the way the largest part of those 2 percent call themselves nationalists - being for Ukraine. The fact is that Russia has a far greater "nazi problem".
What happend in WW2 is history and holds less interest today but one can say that the ukrainians, same as the fins would have cooperated with the devil if it  would help them to get rid of their long time opressor, Russia.
 

[bojo]

11 minutes ago, Stygge said:

Europe is mainly dependent on Russian gas, not gasoline. The gas is hard to transport. You really need pipelines if you don´t want to freeze it to liquid and transport it on ships. Russia don´t have any major pipelines to China or India. It´s gonna take many years to build. So Russia will suffer, be sure. Gasoline they can probably sell on the black market but to a fraction of the market value.

Europe was in the transit for green tech energy anyway so this just hasten the process. It will cost more since it now must be done quicker. But after that the Russians will have nothing to sell to the world.
War is not won by militaristic strong men with big guns. It´s won by economy, and in that field Russia is a dwarf and will sink even further down. Today they rival Italy in economic terms. Tomorrow they will have to compare themselves with North Korea.

Good straight forward informed logic and many would wish it was going to be that simple, me included...................but you know the jigsaw is far more complicated and certainly unpredictable.....................................I don't think there's anyone on this earth that has a clue what the outcome will be, but if I were a betting man, I would say that it will be an East and West carve up, coming alot quicker than we had anticipated 6 weeks ago...............................where Russia comes into the equation, I wouldn't have a clue............................................

[Stargeezr]

Information for posters like Jack Cook with his 114 posts? and Pedrogaz as well.

Did you 2 know that Donbass and the Crimean peninsula were parts of Ukraine?

  Did you know that Russia invaded Crimea, and have been fighting in Donbass.

  Well that should show you that Russia invaded Ukraine and not the other way around.

    As other posters have said, where are you two from?  I have to wonder about your

attitudes and your knowledge. Putin will have no respect from any Western countries,

and when the Russian population ever finds out the truth of the invasion of Ukraine

and all the damage and deaths caused there from the Russian military, I do believe

that Putin and his supporters will be an embarrassment to all of Russia as well.