Shorting Sterling

[Chomper Higgot]

If you’ve not already done it, you’re too late already.

 

But some where quick to the ‘party’ (Pun intended).

 

The UK Government’s mini budget of last week has tanked the pound; just what the nation needs in a cost of living crisis.

 

But it’s not bad news for everyone, by example, there are others, Crispin Odey ( he who made a vast fortune betting against Sterling during Brexit) is again raking it in.

 

One could be forgiven for thinking there’s method in this madness, where the UK Government enacts policies that depreciate Sterling while significant donors to the Tory Party take in fortunes with by timely shorting the very same currency.

 

People living in Thailand on income from the UK are now getting a shade under ฿39/£1.

 

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/odeys-hedge-fund-soars-145-bets-against-uk-bonds-sources-2022-09-22/

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Chomper Higgot

[CharlieH]

Wise currently 39.7 ! Ouch !????

Thats around 10% drop in just a few weeks.

[Chomper Higgot]

Just now, CharlieH said:

Wise currently 39.7 ! Ouch !????

What was it a week ago?

[CharlieH]

3 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

What was it a week ago?

42.13

[foreverlomsak]

3 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

What was it a week ago?

9 am 19th 42.13

[Kwasaki]

3 minutes ago, CharlieH said:

Wise currently 39.7 ! Ouch !????

Thats around 10% drop in just a few weeks.

Been there before so it doesn't make any difference and there's nowt you can do about it so why worry. ????????

[Chomper Higgot]

Just now, Kwasaki said:

Been there before so it doesn't make any difference and there's nowt you can do about it so why worry. ????????

The last time the pound tanker like this it ended the retirement/life in Thailand dreams of many British expats.

 

Tanking the pound has real negative consequences for people living in Thailand on income from the UK and of course for the millions in the UK already struggling with the cost of living crisis.

 

A tanking pound absolutely does make a difference.

[nigelforbes]

The prospect of the Pound at 35 has been on the cards for decades, the  writing has been on the wall and in the charts for years, the covid19 pandemic only interrupted that process. https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/bank-of-england-spot/historical-spot-exchange-rates/gbp/GBP-to-THB

Edited September 26, 2022 by nigelforbes
Add Graph

[anchadian]

The pound has fallen to its lowest level against the US dollar since decimalisation in 1971.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63030208?at_custom3=%40BBCBreaking&at_campaign=64&at_medium=custom7&at_custom1=[post+type]&at_custom2=twitter&at_custom4=1B6C7EE8-3D3F-11ED-BED4-6A8D0EDC252D

 

 

 

[OJAS]

3 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

The prospect of the Pound at 35 has been on the cards for almost a decade, the  writing has been on the wall and in the charts for years, the covid19 pandemic only interrupted that process. 

Which would take the GBP to well below parity against both the USD and EUR as things stand at present.

 

Wise are now refusing to guarantee their GBP conversion rates because of all the volatility.

 

 

 

 

[theoldgit]

38 minutes ago, foreverlomsak said:

9 am 19th 42.13

I got 42.24 on Thursday 22nd, and was complaining about that.

 

The USD is touching 39 this morning.

[nigelforbes]

26 minutes ago, OJAS said:

Which would take the GBP to well below parity against both the USD and EUR as things stand at present.

 

Wise are now refusing to guarantee their GBP conversion rates because of all the volatility.

 

 

 

 

I'm not suggesting the Pound will fall to 35 and stay there now, it may well drop further but I would expect it to recover at some point, to what level I've no idea but it won't be stellar. The point I was trying to make is that longer term, a gradual permanent fall to 35 is almost guaranteed but that may take time.

[worgeordie]

Speculators ....making money when people are suffering ,they need

to get a proper job, 

regards Worgeordie

[Denim]

1 hour ago, Kwasaki said:

Been there before so it doesn't make any difference and there's nowt you can do about it so why worry. ????????

I've changed at 27 baht to the pound in the past. Another time I was getting 79. ( was 85 on 20th January 1998 )

 

As you say , no point crying over spilt milk. Up and down like panties in Soi 6.

 

 

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Denim

[CharlieH]

Look like the USD GBP EURO will all be equal soon.

[OJAS]

47 minutes ago, OJAS said:

Wise are now refusing to guarantee their GBP conversion rates because of all the volatility.

Correction: this refusal only appears to apply to transfers of £5,000 and above, and not to those of £4,999 and below.

[Chomper Higgot]

49 minutes ago, worgeordie said:

Speculators ....making money when people are suffering ,they need

to get a proper job, 

regards Worgeordie

They make even more money when they are ‘given the nod’.

 

 

[nigelforbes]

Wait until the FTSE opens, that should be fun!

[Kwasaki]

2 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

The last time the pound tanker like this it ended the retirement/life in Thailand dreams of many British expats.

 

Tanking the pound has real negative consequences for people living in Thailand on income from the UK and of course for the millions in the UK already struggling with the cost of living crisis.

 

A tanking pound absolutely does make a difference.

Disagree the consensus is you don't come to Thailand to retire without planning your financial future.

There is exchange rate history.

[JayClay]

1 hour ago, nigelforbes said:

I would expect it to recover at some point

Why?

[Chomper Higgot]

7 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Disagree the consensus is you don't come to Thailand to retire without planning your financial future.

There is exchange rate history.

Sadly many people don’t have the awareness or ability to make long term financial plans around market fluctuations.

 

So let’s not blame them and ask why is the Government enacting policies that are damaging the economy and that they warmed would damage the economy?

 

 

[Kwasaki]

1 hour ago, Denim said:

I've changed at 27 baht to the pound in the past. Another time I was getting 79. ( was 85 on 20th January 1998 )

 

As you say , no point crying over spilt milk. Up and down like panties in Soi 6.

 

Yeah my visa extension money I got over to put in my Thai bank was 75 and got it over free by taking from ATM machine over a course of days, it has been kept there ever since.

Like you say it's worth a lot more than it cost and I doubt if we will ever seen that kind of rate anymore. 

[Chomper Higgot]

13 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

Wait until the FTSE opens, that should be fun!

Roll profits from shorting the pound into buying stock at the bottom of a crashed market - Kerr-Ching.

[Chomper Higgot]

3 minutes ago, Kwasaki said:

Yeah my visa extension money I got over to put in my Thai bank was 75 and got it over free by taking from ATM machine over a course of days, it has been kept there ever since.

Like you say it's worth a lot more than it cost and I doubt if we will ever seen that kind of rate anymore. 

 Not much use to fill the exchange loss in the meantime.

Edited September 26, 2022 by Chomper Higgot

[Kwasaki]

1 minute ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Sadly many people don’t have the awareness or ability to make long term financial plans around market fluctuations.

 

So let’s not blame them and ask why is the Government enacting policies that are damaging the economy and that they warmed would damage the economy?

 

 

Yes like for one supporting Ukraine when they can't afford it. 

[Chomper Higgot]

Just now, Kwasaki said:

Yes like for one supporting Ukraine when they can't afford it. 

Wandering off topic again are we?

[nigelforbes]

7 minutes ago, JayClay said:

Why?

Currency exchange rates rarely make big moves and stay there forever, at some point the markets will see the Pound is oversold and it will rebound. That may well be a dead cat bounce, unless the UK economy starts to see some tangible benefit to the tax cuts that caused all of this. The other reason it will improve is because the BOE will have to increase interest rates at some point, that will make the Pound more attractive or rather I should say, less unattractive.

[Kwasaki]

12 minutes ago, JayClay said:

Why?

Because it has to. ????

[JayClay]

2 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

the BOE will have to increase interest rates at some point,

They literally just did that.

 

I don't even think there was a dead-cat bounce in response.

[JayClay]

Just now, Kwasaki said:

Because it has to. ????

Why?