Kiwi Residential Property is Toast. Australia to follow shortly.

[KhunHeineken]

On 5/1/2023 at 3:39 AM, Adumbration said:

None. 

 

And the political naievity of most Australians is sickening. 

Sadly, I think you are correct. 

 

Everyone voting for individual financial benefit, not the benefit of the country. 

[KhunHeineken]

On 2/2/2023 at 1:08 PM, Adumbration said:

The common view in the MSM is that inflation will abate later this year and then central banks will begin cutting rates.

With electricity set to rise between 20% and 31% on the 1st July, that's going to see a surge in inflation that will not be easy to tame.  

 

 https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bills-to-rise-by-20-per-cent-from-july-1-20230314-p5crzg

 

 

[Adumbration]

4 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

With electricity set to rise between 20% and 31% on the 1st July, that's going to see a surge in inflation that will not be easy to tame.  

 

 https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bills-to-rise-by-20-per-cent-from-july-1-20230314-p5crzg

 

 

There is not a snowball's hope in hell of inflation abating in Australia until the RBA lifts the cash rate to at least the CPI print.  That is still running at 7% after a year of raising rates. And that figure is already fudged and obfuscated.

 

I the gubberment now realises that the cash rate will have to be raised, perhaps into double figures in late 2024 early 2025, that is why they are replacing Lowe with a panel of multiple individuals.  This is to try and avoid him being called the man who crashed Australian residential property in the MSM and lynched when the hordes of angry foreclosed property owners hit the streets.

 

 

[Adumbration]

4 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

With electricity set to rise between 20% and 31% on the 1st July, that's going to see a surge in inflation that will not be easy to tame.  

 

 https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/power-bills-to-rise-by-20-per-cent-from-july-1-20230314-p5crzg

 

 

Price of Gas will go up as well:

 

https://www.afr.com/companies/energy/gas-tensions-rife-as-producers-stall-on-supply-promises-20230504-p5d5qq

 

[chalawaan]

Never gonna happen. And I don't own property there.

The price could drop by 30% Armageddon case. So long as you're paid off, who cares?

The only people who will lose are the newly mortgaged who then have to have forced sales, maybe some tragic death of one partner or something. 

But there's no glut, so a price correction will only be a Skyfall story to the media, but everyone 99.8% will be just fine. 

[chalawaan]

On 11/21/2022 at 9:03 AM, Paul Catton said:

25 seconds visiting a website and updating a spreadsheet, conversely gives peace of mind. 

Yeah for a week. 

Like he said, if you're not selling now, it's pointless, regardless which way the market moves. 

The price will be the price on the day and that's in the future, it could include selling after an earthquake, selling under one hundred reasons of personal financial duress, or great good luck. 

I would do the same with shares, eventually its mostly boring in either direction, but it's not going to mean squat until the sell by date. 

[KhunHeineken]

Government manufactured change in Australia culture.

 

  https://www.9news.com.au/national/rental-crisis-australian-children-move-back-in-with-parents/de73d3a4-192a-4370-912a-ce43a3f8edf4

[4MyEgo]

On 11/1/2022 at 2:53 PM, KhunHeineken said:

Somewhere over the last couple of decades houses, which should have been "homes" for Aussie families, became "investments" for all property owners, especially with negative gearing.

 

Fast forward to 2022, and you have the situation the housing market is now in, which is not unlike what happened in America in 2008.

 

I wonder how exposed some Aussie banks are. 

Negative gearing has been around since it was reintroduced back in September 1986 under Paul Keating I believe because the property market $hit itself, i.e. nothing was moving.

 

The property market in Oz is still resilient because the government keeps tweaking things, the latest being increasing the stamp duty threshold to $800k for 1st home buyers and then a sliding scale up to a million $.

 

Then you have, buy with the government, e.g. they will go in with you on the purchase of a property up to XZY and pay, if I am correct, up to 40% of the mortgage, so your investment in property is with the government.

 

The government has played with the property market since i 1st started investing in it 4 decades ago, without negative gearing, the market would tank.

 

Banks aren't exposed because APRA have had them under a leash and keep applying pressure so for every $ they lend, they must be able to have a $ in their bank, and banks won't foreclose as it's not that simple, they have to renegotiate with customers, i.e. cut them some slack, reduce the payments, but allow the interest to compound on the original repayments, which would be adding to the original loan.

 

I believe the Oz market is due for a major correction, but until the government stops bailing it out with all of it's interferences, they ain't going to happen soon. 

[KhunHeineken]

8 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

The property market in Oz is still resilient because the government keeps tweaking things,

The property market in Oz is resilient because of the lack of supply.  

 

It's in the financial interest of all 3 tiers of government to have a higher housing prices.  

 

8 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

The government has played with the property market since i 1st started investing in it 4 decades ago, without negative gearing, the market would tank.

I have never suggested they should do away with negative gearing.  In my opinion, it needs some regulation.  For example, a barrister or a surgeon, on a high salary, having 5 or 6 investment properties in nice suburbs, in order to lower their own personal tax, needs to change. 

 

They could put a cap on the amount of properties one can own, or a cap on the dollar value of an investment property portfolio. 

 

Bill Shorten went to an election with this idea and was voted down.  Too many people on the negative gearing gravy train now. 

 

8 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Banks aren't exposed because APRA have had them under a leash and keep applying pressure so for every $ they lend, they must be able to have a $ in their bank, and banks won't foreclose as it's not that simple, they have to renegotiate with customers, i.e. cut them some slack, reduce the payments, but allow the interest to compound on the original repayments, which would be adding to the original loan.

You're joking, right?

 

You don't think there is a property bubble back in Australia?  Are you serious? 

 

You do know thousands of property owners are coming off fix rates and they already know they can't afford their monthly repayment after several interest rate rises over the last 12 months.  They thought cheap money would be around forever. 

 

I think there will be another interest rate rise next month, or in December. 

 

8 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

I believe the Oz market is due for a major correction, but until the government stops bailing it out with all of it's interferences, they ain't going to happen soon. 

You have contradicted yourself. 

 

You say the property market in Oz is resilient, but then say it's due for a market correction.  If due for a market correction, it's not going to be so resilient, is it? 

 

It's a bubble that is being propped up by lack of supply, hence, the housing shortage Australia has right now, which is leading to unaffordable housing, and homelessness, not to mention enslaving people for 30 years to a bank. 

 

Look at all the land in Australia, and we have a housing crisis.  It's a disgrace. 

[4MyEgo]

13 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

You have contradicted yourself. 

 

No I haven't.

 

13 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

You say the property market in Oz is resilient, but then say it's due for a market correction.  If due for a market correction, it's not going to be so resilient, is it? 

Read my post below, resilient because ?

 

22 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

The property market in Oz is still resilient because the government keeps tweaking things, the latest being increasing the stamp duty threshold to $800k for 1st home buyers and then a sliding scale up to a million $.

You really shouldn't cut out all of ones sentence to suit your agenda.

 

13 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

You don't think there is a property bubble back in Australia?  Are you serious? 

 

You do know thousands of property owners are coming off fix rates and they already know they can't afford their monthly repayment after several interest rate rises over the last 12 months.  They thought cheap money would be around forever. 

 

I think there will be another interest rate rise next month, or in December. 

There never has been a bubble in the Australian real estate market, please do correct me if you can.

 

Yes they are all coming off of their fixed rates and banks will structure things to suit their clients, like split loans, extend the period of repayments etc, for those that have no hope, well they will sell, but they will be few because rates will be on the way down in 2024, if not December 2023.

 

I did say the government tweaks things to suit itself, and if you think the reserve bank doesn't take instructions from the government, you'd be blind as a bat.

 

 

[KhunHeineken]

22 hours ago, 4MyEgo said:

Yes they are all coming off of their fixed rates and banks will structure things to suit their clients, like split loans, extend the period of repayments etc, for those that have no hope, well they will sell, but they will be few because rates will be on the way down in 2024, if not December 2023.

You really have no idea. 

 

Have you heard of the term "mortgage prison?" 

 

Basically, it's where a mortgagee does not qualify for a new mortgage on the same property they have being paying their current mortgage on because interest rates have gone up, and they no longer meet the bank's lending criteria for a mortgage on the property. 

 

Plenty on the internet and in the news about it. 

 

https://www.smh.com.au/money/banking/borrowers-warned-mortgage-prison-escape-plan-could-trip-them-up-20230622-p5dioy.html

 

"With the rise in interest rates since May last year, many mortgage holders would fail the stress test now, leaving them unable to switch to a mortgage with a lower interest rate."

 

The bank will not and can not "structure things" for people they know can not afford the loan under current interest rates.  It's as simple as that. 

[Paul Catton]

On 4/26/2023 at 8:28 PM, Paul Catton said:

Updating the thread regarding our tracked valuation median.

Opal and I are currently at NZ$595,000 which is down from previously the previous posted figure of $630,000.

This now represents, from our peak at NZ$840,000 as historically posted, equates to an overall 41% shaving within two years.

Update for the thread, last month we bottomed out at a $585,000 valuation median being early November. There were  many reports in the media that many people were experiencing negativity equity, and, with much higher interest rates had forced them to walk away due to affordability of their home ownership..

This month, after a change in Government, we have gone from the estimate of $585,000 valuation median, to $610,000 valuation median, as of today.

 

 

[xylophone]

15 minutes ago, Paul Catton said:

Update for the thread, last month we bottomed out at a $585,000 valuation median being early November. There were  many reports in the media that many people were experiencing negativity equity, and, with much higher interest rates had forced them to walk away due to affordability of their home ownership..

This month, after a change in Government, we have gone from the estimate of $585,000 valuation median, to $610,000 valuation median, as of today.

 

 

 

From what I read in the NZ Herald, property prices are on the up.......so don't despair!!

[Paul Catton]

2 minutes ago, xylophone said:

 

From what I read in the NZ Herald, property prices are on the up.......so don't despair!!

Dear Xylophone,

 

As always I hope all is well with you.

 

I am not despairing for myself, especially that my "median valuation" rose by $25,000 within the space of of a month.

 

My despair is for destitute families, that had scraped together, a significant amount of money for a deposit on a "HOME" and then found themselves being snookered, thus caught between the fabled rock and a hard place, being both, significant property devaluation and similarly the inflated cost of fiance trough, and huge mortgage rate increases.  

 

[Adumbration]

Thanks for the update

 

[KhunHeineken]

Interesting article.

 

I can't remember a time when this was the case.  Sad, indeed. 

 

So much land, yet so little housing. 

 

Supply restricted, to create an artificial demand, thus inflated prices. 

 

Basically, government made homelessness. 

 

https://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/more-australians-set-to-retire-in-debt-amp-20231211-p5eqkg.html

[still kicking]

On 10/22/2022 at 5:53 PM, Adumbration said:

That's fine if you house is all paid for and you can ride out the lows.  How many people in Australia or New Zealand own their home outright.

Just to let you know I have 2.

[KhunHeineken]

11 minutes ago, still kicking said:

Just to let you know I have 2.

If you have 2 houses, how is it you can get an Aged Pension?

 

Yes, we all know the answer. 

[Adumbration]

8 hours ago, KhunHeineken said:

If you have 2 houses, how is it you can get an Aged Pension?

 

Yes, we all know the answer. 

@still kicking is just another fake account.  There is so many on this forum they are forgetting their own backstories.  If you read this guys thread history he was apparently broke after losing his house in Thailand to a Thai, then had to go back to Oz to get the pension, then suddenly he has a Thai wife living in OZ with him (But still getting the pension??).  And now apparently has two houses and a Thai wife (But still getting the pension??).  Oh....and let us not forget his chestnut....he rents a two bedroom apartment in Australia for under $250 per week.  

 

This forum has become a basket case of fantasy and misinformation because of fake accounts.

 

Sad really.

[KhunHeineken]

16 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

@still kicking is just another fake account.  There is so many on this forum they are forgetting their own backstories.  If you read this guys thread history he was apparently broke after losing his house in Thailand to a Thai, then had to go back to Oz to get the pension, then suddenly he has a Thai wife living in OZ with him (But still getting the pension??).  And now apparently has two houses and a Thai wife (But still getting the pension??).  Oh....and let us not forget his chestnut....he rents a two bedroom apartment in Australia for under $250 per week.  

 

This forum has become a basket case of fantasy and misinformation because of fake accounts.

 

Sad really.

I agree.

 

It's the same as a member on the pension thread.  One post he's on a veteran's pension, next post he's on the age pension.  You can't be on both pensions, at the same time. 

[KhunHeineken]

Are they brave enough to revisit the inequity of the negative gearing policy? 

 

Stage 3 tax cuts: Allegra Spender, Bill Kelty call to overhaul system beyond income tax cuts (smh.com.au)

[Adumbration]

10 minutes ago, KhunHeineken said:

Are they brave enough to revisit the inequity of the negative gearing policy? 

 

Stage 3 tax cuts: Allegra Spender, Bill Kelty call to overhaul system beyond income tax cuts (smh.com.au)

 

No longer matters what they do.  Damage to the societal fabric of Australia is beyond repair now.  Young Australians cannot afford to buy or rent a house and so no children or families for them.  And so the Government, Liberal or Labor is filling the taxable workers void with immigrants.  It used to be a fun country to live in.  Now it is a *hithole.  Plain and simple.

 

 

[KhunHeineken]

4 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

 

No longer matters what they do.  Damage to the societal fabric of Australia is beyond repair now.  Young Australians cannot afford to buy or rent a house and so no children or families for them.  And so the Government, Liberal or Labor is filling the taxable workers void with immigrants.  It used to be a fun country to live in.  Now it is a *hithole.  Plain and simple.

 

 

I could see some years ago policy was pushing Australia into the extended family model like Europe and Asia.  Basically, no chance to own your own home, so you and your wife / husband live with parents / in laws, and inherit a house. 

 

So much land in Australia, yet, there is a housing crisis.  We are a laughing stock of the world.  It's a man made disgrace. 

[Adumbration]

1 minute ago, KhunHeineken said:

I could see some years ago policy was pushing Australia into the extended family model like Europe and Asia.  Basically, no chance to own your own home, so you and your wife / husband live with parents / in laws, and inherit a house. 

 

So much land in Australia, yet, there is a housing crisis.  We are a laughing stock of the world.  It's a man made disgrace. 

 

Absolutely entirely engineered problem.  I am amazed how gullible and politically naive the Australian public are.  Banks and politicians have raped and utterly destroyed a once good place to live.

[KhunHeineken]

9 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

 

Absolutely entirely engineered problem.  I am amazed how gullible and politically naive the Australian public are.  Banks and politicians have raped and utterly destroyed a once good place to live.

Check out these obscene profits.

 

https://www.actu.org.au/media-release/back-workers-not-big-business-profits-politicians-urged/

 

"Recently we’ve seen the big four banks post bumper profits, with the Commonwealth Bank posting $10.2 billion, Westpac $7.2bn, NAB $7.7bn and ANZ $7.4bn.

Back in August, we also saw significant profits from Coles, up 17.1% to $643 million and Woolworths, up 14% to over $900 million. IAG, Australia’s top general insurer, saw profits soar 140% to $832 million. Origin Energy, one of Australia’s biggest energy providers, grew profits by 83.5% to over a billion dollars."

Price gouging, but guess what, the higher the price, the more GST the government gets, so why would they care?