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Solar Power is cheap and it’s going to get even cheaper very soon.


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7 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

The solar panels will provide power during daylight hours. If your household load a night is about 500 watts, the battery should see you through the night.

 

Installation is very difficult to estimate, because it varies so much based on the site and what ancillary equipment you use. Such as rails, brackets, cables and breakers. I think ฿20,000 would be a reasonable quote.

would I be safe to assume  that you could not run A?C overnight with that battery then? 

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Forget the battery which is half the total cost and, for ~50K Baht + installation you could run a couple of air cons during the day and keep the house nice and cool. The problem I find when I try and do the economics is that the 5kW solar panel only delivers that at the peak, and its average power production during, say, 8 hours of daylight is less than 5kW. But how much less? On a clear and sunny day, does it deliver 4kW, 3kW, 2kW or what on average over the period?

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11 minutes ago, Guderian said:

Forget the battery which is half the total cost and, for ~50K Baht + installation you could run a couple of air cons during the day and keep the house nice and cool. The problem I find when I try and do the economics is that the 5kW solar panel only delivers that at the peak, and its average power production during, say, 8 hours of daylight is less than 5kW. But how much less? On a clear and sunny day, does it deliver 4kW, 3kW, 2kW or what on average over the period?

 

A 5kW inverter is never going to produce more than 5kW, but if you oversize the panels with say 6kW of PV you will get more in the morning and in the afternoon.

 

This is one of my 5kW inverters with 4,845 Watts of PV. The Graph doesn’t show solar production but rather solar that was produced and consumed, as excess solar is curtailed. On this day I was charging my 2 electric cars so load consumption was quite high.

 

IMG_1548.jpeg.83501eb73157c53b2aeeac1a78100803.jpeg   

 

 

 

This is another graph where I was charging my BYD for longer

 

 

9abjpg.jpeg.b79acc250f5263e6b02c1e2bdb5c2456.jpeg

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2 minutes ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

A 5kW inverter is never going to produce more than 5kW, but if you oversize the panels with say 6kW of PV you will get more in the morning and in the afternoon.

 

This is one of my 5kW inverters with 4,845 Watts of PV. The Graph doesn’t show solar production but rather solar that was produced and consumed, as excess solar is curtailed. On this day I was charging my 2 electric cars so load consumption was quite high.

 

IMG_1548.jpeg.83501eb73157c53b2aeeac1a78100803.jpeg   

 

 

 

This is another graph where I was charging my BYD for longer

 

 

9abjpg.jpeg.b79acc250f5263e6b02c1e2bdb5c2456.jpeg

 

Thanks. Am I reading this right? You've got a 5kW inverter with somewhat more than 5kW of panels attached, and in the early morning it was producing around 2.5kW, which soon went up to occasional peaks of 4kW, maybe averaging around 3.5kW during that time between 10:30 and 14:00? I'd eyeball the average for the day at around 3kW. Is that fair?

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4 minutes ago, Guderian said:

 

Thanks. Am I reading this right? You've got a 5kW inverter with somewhat more than 5kW of panels attached, and in the early morning it was producing around 2.5kW, which soon went up to occasional peaks of 4kW, maybe averaging around 3.5kW during that time between 10:30 and 14:00? I'd eyeball the average for the day at around 3kW. Is that fair?

 

4.8kW of panels

 

It’s not solar production, but solar production for which there is a corresponding load.

 

If you don’t want to buy a battery and your house load is 1kW you should be able to cover that load from 8am to 5:30pm 

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7 hours ago, Bandersnatch said:

Don’t listen to the barstool experts when they talk about solar being too expensive, they’re wrong - they usually are.


IMG_3451.jpeg.a89c604c8da20a99f0eb9f3ca5ef6b56.jpeg

https://www.pv-magazine.com/2023/11/23/solar-module-prices-may-reach-0-10-w-by-end-2024/
 

Tier one solar panels are already at ฿6.5/Watt

 

 

20231219_021518000_iOS.thumb.png.58731b6c35d4431b1dd0af9ea90c32db.png

 


Inverters are already as low as ฿4K per kW

 

IMG_3449.thumb.jpeg.c6609b0b3b96cc522375337c44d571de.jpeg

 

Batteries are already at ฿5k per kWh with expectations to see further substantial falls this year

 

IMG_3448.thumb.png.fe194f7f287a370d36c8d97bb360328d.png

 

So just using the prices quoted above 

5kW of Solar = ฿32,000

5kW Inverter = ฿20,000

10kWh Battery = ฿50,000


Total cost = ฿102,000

or ฿52,000 without the battery 

 

Batteries are not cheap, nearly 3 years ago I bought my lithium batteries for40,880.00 THB 48V 260Ah, that time already 20% cheaper.

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As with many would be magical figures, many quoted are simply not feasible.

 

What is often forgotten ( or never really known) is the charge figures are never linear, nor are they reliable day to day, and Thailand does get a lot of cloudy /rainy days, together with the "forgotten RAC's and bath heaters."

 

Factor in about 50% derating might get one nearer the requirements.

 

Don't get me wrong, greatest thing I ever did was install solar but definitely not batteries.

 

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4 minutes ago, bluejets said:

Don't get me wrong, greatest thing I ever did was install solar but definitely not batteries.

 

I have been basically off-grid for 5 years using batteries, now that I’ve given my meter back I’m definitely off-grid.

 

electricBill_iOS.thumb.jpeg.03c56d5dfb12fcc4f5501670b2b39bcd.jpeg

 

 

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1 minute ago, newbee2022 said:

Supplying your house will cost around 500.000 Baht.

Incl Battery for 20 KW. With that you can run more than 2 or 3 aircon, fridge, TV aso. 

So not a bargain at all.

 

Can you support that ฿500,000 figure with some actual examples as in my opening post?

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6 hours ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

The first problem with Batteries is Depth of Discharge (DOD) and Li-ion batteries have a 80% DOD so you are only getting 8kWh out of a 10kWh battery. There are also some efficiency losses converting DC to AC to run the aircon.

 

Aircon sizes and power draws vary. I designed my house to be very well insulated and well sealed. I use 8,500 BTU aircons that have a max power consumption of 680W, but most of the time it’s only the fan that is running.

 

If you have big leaky windows your aircon will be constant cooling warm air that finds it’s way into the room so it will spend more time operating close to it’s max power consumption.

 

 

I had already 2 different companies inspecting my house. We run 3 aircon by totally 52 Btu and cooking electric. 3 TVs and 3 fridges and a chest deep freezer. And in addition all necessary appliances as hot shower. The system I was offered included a 20-25 KW battery and 40 solar panels. 

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2 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

I had already 2 different companies inspecting my house. We run 3 aircon by totally 52 Btu and cooking electric. 3 TVs and 3 fridges and a chest deep freezer. And in addition all necessary appliances as hot shower. The system I was offered included a 20-25 KW battery and 40 solar panels. 


 

Supply and fit can get expensive as the company makes a profit on the components and the installation. The good ones will warranty their work and offer after sales support.

 

However, there are some companies who think consumers have no idea of the price of solar components and they feel free to charge whatever they want.

 

hopefully with falling prices the savings will eventually start to get passed on to consumers. 

 

 

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30 minutes ago, newbee2022 said:

I had already 2 different companies inspecting my house. We run 3 aircon by totally 52 Btu and cooking electric. 3 TVs and 3 fridges and a chest deep freezer. And in addition all necessary appliances as hot shower. The system I was offered included a 20-25 KW battery and 40 solar panels. 

Think they could lower that number of panels if using higher spec'd panels.   We only have 18, and enough to run the house and recharge our 20kWh of batteries.  Batteries usually topped up between 1000-1200hrs, unless crappy out.  Using 6 or 7kWh overnight (14 hrs), w/ AC & air purifier, on in the bedroom the whole time, along w/2 frigs.   Laptops & 65" TV till midnight or beyond.

Edited by KhunLA
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1 hour ago, Bandersnatch said:

 

4.8kW of panels

 

It’s not solar production, but solar production for which there is a corresponding load.

 

If you don’t want to buy a battery and your house load is 1kW you should be able to cover that load from 8am to 5:30pm 

 

What I might be after is the ability on hot days, i.e when the sun is shining and the solar panels should be working fine, to run two air cons from the power produced, one 24 kBTU and the other 12 kBTU. I think that's around 4kW of power consumption, not 1 kW. On cloudy days and at night I'm happy to use the mains electricity. From what I saw from your graph, the peak power output availability is far from steady. Does that mean I'd need to generate far more power than I actually need to guarantee the necessary 4 kW to run the air cons, as they're probably not very happy with a fluctuating and unsteady power input? Or does it simply mean I would have to have a battery? Or can it all be configured so that I would use all the solar power available, and it could be topped up in the day to the required level by the mains if need be?

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46 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Think they could lower that number of panels if using higher spec'd panels.   We only have 18, and enough to run the house and recharge our 20kWh of batteries.  Batteries usually topped up between 1000-1200hrs, unless crappy out.  Using 6 or 7kWh overnight (14 hrs), w/ AC & air purifier, on in the bedroom the whole time, along w/2 frigs.   Laptops & 65" TV till midnight or beyond.

I agree what you said.

However, when I calculate the costs  vs price/kw then it was my conclusion that in old age it makes no sense to invest let's say 400.000 Baht for my last 10 years. If I would be in my 50s I would do it.

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A few years ago I looked at getting a solar network to power my house. I worked out the cost then to be around 300,000 baht and replacing the solar panels after 10 years max.

 

I have looked back at my past bills from 2017 forwards  and the most power I used was in April 2023 when I consumed 41.56 units a day for a monthly bill of 7,184 baht.

 

I was running the downstairs a/c for 13 hours a day, my bedroom a/c for 10 hours, my sons bedroom a/c for about 12 hours a day. We also have 2 freezers, 3 fridge/freezers, various lights, fans and water pump etc 24 hours a day and we were using 41.65 units per day on average for April.

 

What I would like to do is have a network that will supply at least 6 or even 7kW constantly per day, as it seems to be getting hotter year on year. A project that size should also be OK on dull. cloudy and rainy days

 

Space is no problem as we live on about 15 rai of land.

 

My problem. apart from paying for it, is that I am 79 and my wife is 58. I will probably be dead before the solar panels and also the batteries need replacing.

 

My PEA bill for 2023 was nearly 59,000 baht, but now my son is at university the bill should come down a bit this year.

 

It may be possible to resell the surplus electricity back to the PEA.

 

My wild guess is that a system like that will cost about 400.000 baht all in and the ROI will take about 7 years to pay for itself.

 

Is that a reasonable assumption?

 

What yearly maintenance would be required? 

 

 

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54 minutes ago, Guderian said:

 

What I might be after is the ability on hot days, i.e when the sun is shining and the solar panels should be working fine, to run two air cons from the power produced, one 24 kBTU and the other 12 kBTU. I think that's around 4kW of power consumption, not 1 kW. On cloudy days and at night I'm happy to use the mains electricity. From what I saw from your graph, the peak power output availability is far from steady. Does that mean I'd need to generate far more power than I actually need to guarantee the necessary 4 kW to run the air cons, as they're probably not very happy with a fluctuating and unsteady power input? Or does it simply mean I would have to have a battery? Or can it all be configured so that I would use all the solar power available, and it could be topped up in the day to the required level by the mains if need be?


Most on grid folk will set their inverter priority to be Solar, then Battery, then Grid. You shouldn’t see any drop in power as they switch between sources. 
 

A cheap and easy solar entry system is 5or6kW of PV and a 5kW inverter. The next step would 10 and 10. You have to make a choice of not enough on 5kW or possibly too much on 10kW.

 

As you seem to not want batteries there is nowhere for excess solar power to go.

 

Sounds like the cheapest solution for you is 5 and 5, no battery and a bit more PEA. The thing about PEA as a backup you are only paying for the power you actually use.

 

Although I am completely off-grid I wouldn’t recommend it if you’re only considering financials 

 

 

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