What stocks are you buying in this bear market ...

[nigelforbes]

6 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

The OP asked for stock picks. You said it might take 10 years for the market to recover. Let us see how that goes.

 

I see a new high in 2 years.

I said no such thing! I wrote:

 

"It's perfectly reasonable to think that markets might not recover, several respected analysts are talking in terms of recovery within a decade".

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, nigelforbes said:

I said no such thing! I wrote:

 

"It's perfectly reasonable to think that markets might not recover, several respected analysts are talking in terms of recovery within a decade".

Might not recover? What does that mean? Never?

 

That is not reasonable at all. That's irrational bearish.

[Sparktrader]

4 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

several respected analysts are talking in terms of recovery within a decade".

Who are these people?

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, Sparktrader said:

Who are these people?

Judging from the volume of your posts you must be lonely or bored. Please go find some friends and find somebody else to annoy, we're well and truly done and now you ARE going onto my ignore list..

[Sparktrader]

According to Seeking Alpha — which analyzed every bear market since 1928 — the longest-ever bear market occurred in 1973-74, when it lasted 630 days, or about 21 months. The stock market shed about 48% during that period. The second-longest bear market, from 1980-82, lasted 622 days.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/longest-bear-market-us-history-152647191.html

[Liverpool Lou]

8 hours ago, Jingthing said:

So for people looking at stocks now or in the near future, what stocks are you looking at?

I'm sticking with my Thaivisa/AN investments, always served me well!

Edited November 1, 2022 by Liverpool Lou

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, nigelforbes said:

Judging from the volume of your posts you must be lonely or bored. Please go find some friends and find somebody else to annoy, we're well and truly done and now you ARE going onto my ignore list..

You asked for a discussion. You made a big claim about respected analysts but cannot name them. 

 

I always back up my claims with data.

 

 

[Liverpool Lou]

8 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

now you ARE going onto my ignore list..

Hahahahaaaa!   Oh, my God, no...not that "ignore" list! 

So lame.  You know that has no effect, whatsoever, on him, yes?

Edited November 1, 2022 by Liverpool Lou

[Sparktrader]

Average bear market is 289 days. About average now. High was in January. So a low should come in the next 340 days unless a new record occurs.

 

So looking at October next year at the latest.

 

https://www.hartfordfunds.com/practice-management/client-conversations/managing-volatility/bear-markets.html

[Sparktrader]

1 minute ago, Liverpool Lou said:

Hahahahaaaa!   Oh, my God, no...not that "ignore" list! 

So lame.  You know that has no effect, whatsoever, on him, yes?

Fine. I just use facts to discuss topics. Others quit and use ignore.

[Jingthing]

20 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

I said no such thing! I wrote:

 

"It's perfectly reasonable to think that markets might not recover, several respected analysts are talking in terms of recovery within a decade".

That's not never.

Yeah look at the lost decades in Japan.

Edited November 1, 2022 by Jingthing

[Liverpool Lou]

2 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

Fine. I just use facts to discuss topics.

You know they don't go down well here!

Edited November 1, 2022 by Liverpool Lou

[Jingthing]

A big factor in how screwy the markets are internationally is dollar strength. While yes American expats benefit from that with Fx, I am feeling that is peaking which may mean another year but the dollar can't get stronger forever, can it?

Edited November 1, 2022 by Jingthing

[Sparktrader]

Just now, Jingthing said:

A big factor in how screwy the markets are internationally is dollar strength. While yes Americans benefit from that I am feeling that is peaking which may mean another year but the dollar can't get stronger forever.

Inverse relationship between dollar and stocks often. When other currencies are stronger US products become cheaper which boost sales.

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

That's not never 

Sure, many people have their own time frames in mind, I don't care because I have been in defensive mode for over a year and have lost hardly anything. But at age 70+ years, a decade long recovery may as well be never, especially for those who are avid buy and hold fanatics. I know people who entered the current markets downturn holding a handful of high risk Baillie Gifford funds and they have lost about 50%. They didn't get out when the writing was on the wall because they were convinced that the buy and hold mantra which had stood the test of time would protect them. I don't think investors can take the buy and hold approach in isolation, they have to look at the surrounding economic picture and also consider their age. We're currently in an economic and geopolitical scenario that we've never experienced before and the way out is very unclear. For over 65 year olds to start taking risks in this environment is sheer craziness. 

[Jingthing]

1 minute ago, nigelforbes said:

Sure, many people have their own time frames in mind, I don't care because I have been in defensive mode for over a year and have lost hardly anything. But at age 70+ years, a decade long recovery may as well be never, especially for those who are avid buy and hold fanatics. I know people who entered the current markets downturn holding a handful of high risk Baillie Gifford funds and they have lost about 50%. They didn't get out when the writing was on the wall because they were convinced that the buy and hold mantra which had stood the test of time would protect them. I don't think investors can take the buy and hold approach in isolation, they have to look at the surrounding economic picture and also consider their age. We're currently in an economic and geopolitical scenario that we've never experienced before and the way out is very unclear. For over 65 year olds to start taking risks in this environment is sheer craziness. 

I retired very early because I have a high risk temperament. You're right about the age factor of course but I've never believed its ideal for older people to be entirely out of the markets.

Another factor is legacy.

Many people care about that. I'm of the you win if your last check bounces brigade.

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, Jingthing said:

I retired very early because I have a high risk temperament. You're right about the age factor of course but I've never believed its ideal for older people to be entirely out of the markets.

Another factor is legacy.

Many people care about that. I'm of the you win if your last check bounces brigade.

I agree, it's not good to be out of the markets completely, the issue is, what does being in the markets mean to an older person. I bought PNL, CGT and RICA about 13 months ago, all UK based wealth preservations funds that mix variable amounts of global equities with bonds and other financial instruments aimed at protecting wealth. The equities element is currently only about 26%, so whilst the downside loss is limited, so is the potential upside gain. But when markets turn those fund managers will increase their equities holdings up to 45% hence the upside potential increases. I think blue chip fund managers stand a far better chance of reading markets accurately than I ever will, that scenario gives me all the risk I need at my age. If we were talking 5 years ago, the story would be different, you'd have to be a complete imbecile not to make money in equities back then....but that was then and this is now.

[Sparktrader]

Index funds beat most fund managers who pick stocks. 

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/stock-picking-has-a-terrible-track-record-and-its-getting-worse.html

Edited November 1, 2022 by Sparktrader

[Sparktrader]

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/27/new-report-finds-almost-80percent-of-active-fund-managers-are-falling-behind.html

[Sparktrader]

20 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I retired very early because I have a high risk temperament. You're right about the age factor of course but I've never believed its ideal for older people to be entirely out of the markets.

Another factor is legacy.

Many people care about that. I'm of the you win if your last check bounces brigade.

Back your own judgement or use Index. Most "experts" ie 80% are no good anyway.

 

 

[Jingthing]

"Treat those two Imposters just the same."

 

 

What is the name of the Chinese stock he mentioned?

 

I can't make it out.

Edited November 1, 2022 by Jingthing

[nigelforbes]

Here's a couple of video's to watch in your pare time, if you're interested and if you want to understand the underlying economic picture. Roubini is of course known as Dr Doom so you should cherry pick what he has to say and see how it compares against other market commentators. That said, Roubini has remarkable qualifications as an economist. 

 

 

Jeremy Grantham is a Brit who owns an extremely successful investment company in the US and tends to be right more often than he's wrong so he's worth listening to.

 

 

 

There are plenty of other highly regarded investors and market analysts out there who are worth listening to, after you've heard a few speak you pick up on the common theme. Ray Dalio, Ken Moelis, even Charlie Munger are all worth understanding, before you jump in.

[pomchop]

4 hours ago, Sparktrader said:

I made no mention of 1929. There are bearish people preaching doom every year. They are wrong 9/10. Markets always go up. Gdp growth means markets have to go up.

 

Not logical to think markets will never recover.

yes markets do overall go up over some period of time..if we only had a crystal ball clock to know what and when that period of time starts and ends....but  a lot of companies stocks might well become worthless in bankruptcy next month, next year, next decade next?......if u are one that picks a holds lot of high risk stocks and they go belly up then good luck recovering....not all stocks go up up up over time....a lot of very strong companies may well end up broke over time.....

[nigelforbes]

2 minutes ago, pomchop said:

yes markets do overall go up over some period of time..if we only had a crystal ball clock to know what and when that period of time starts and ends....but  a lot of companies stocks might well become worthless in bankruptcy next month, next year, next decade next?......if u are one that picks a holds lot of high risk stocks and they go belly up then good luck recovering....not all stocks go up up up over time....a lot of very strong companies may well end up broke over time.....

Exactly.

[connda]

[Sparktrader]

5 minutes ago, pomchop said:

yes markets do overall go up over some period of time..if we only had a crystal ball clock to know what and when that period of time starts and ends....but  a lot of companies stocks might well become worthless in bankruptcy next month, next year, next decade next?......if u are one that picks a holds lot of high risk stocks and they go belly up then good luck recovering....not all stocks go up up up over time....a lot of very strong companies may well end up broke over time.....

1 look at bear market averages

2 look at company debt levels

3 look at long term charts

 

Companies who make large $ with low debt and high cash reserves cant go broke!

 

For example look at Rio or Cba. Look at their cash reserves.

 

How does Apple go broke?

 

 

 

[pomchop]

4 minutes ago, Sparktrader said:

1 look at bear market averages

2 look at company debt levels

3 look at long term charts

 

Companies who make large $ with low debt and high cash reserves cant go broke!

 

For example look at Rio or Cba. Look at their cash reserves.

 

How does Apple go broke?

 

 

 

companies who make large $$ with low debt and high cash reserves are not the ones to worry about at least in the short term and i doubt many would consider such a company to be very risky,,,but things can and do change and the horse buggy makers along with hundreds of others of once high flying companies probably also once thought wow look at our high profits and cash reserves we will never go bankrupt....until they did.

[nigelforbes]

4 minutes ago, pomchop said:

companies who make large $$ with low debt and high cash reserves are not the ones to worry about at least in the short term and i doubt many would consider such a company to be very risky,,,but things can and do change and the horse buggy makers along with hundreds of others of once high flying companies probably also once thought wow look at our high profits and cash reserves we will never go bankrupt....until they did.

Yep, nothing lasts forever and anyone who doesn't understand that shouldn't be allowed to invest. 

 

Here's a three year old article about Apple, the author compares Apple to Sony and talks about maxing out its key product without having anything to replace it with.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/08/26/dark-days-are-closing-in-on-apple/?sh=4a86df473957

[Sparktrader]

6 minutes ago, pomchop said:

companies who make large $$ with low debt and high cash reserves are not the ones to worry about at least in the short term and i doubt many would consider such a company to be very risky,,,but things can and do change and the horse buggy makers along with hundreds of others of once high flying companies probably also once thought wow look at our high profits and cash reserves we will never go bankrupt....until they did.

You think Apple is a horse buggy stock?

 

 

[Sparktrader]

Just now, nigelforbes said:

Yep, nothing lasts forever and anyone who doesn't understand that shouldn't be allowed to invest. 

 

Here's a three year old article about Apple, the author compares Apple to Sony and talks about maxing out its key product without having anything to replace it with.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/08/26/dark-days-are-closing-in-on-apple/?sh=4a86df473957

3 years old article.