Even as the baht surges, Thailand faces economic recession in mid-2023 with lower earnings

[webfact]

The sudden fall in the dollar against the baht this week is linked with comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell (left) that further interest rate hikes may be moderated in line with lower US inflation. This came even as US growth was ahead of expectations.

 

by Joseph O' Connor

KKP Research, the research arm of Kiatnakin Phatra Bank in Bangkok is predicting the Thai economy to enter recession in the opening quarter of 2023 with the kingdom facing a challenge to find foreign tourists and generate the same level of exports seen in 2022. This will be coming at a time when inflation is predicted to remain elevated at a significantly higher level than the Bank of Thailand’s target rate of 3% and loan interest rates are rising.

 

The economic malaise facing the world has seen the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in September this year, urging central banks to stress test their banking systems for a possible deterioration in real estate values in the short term. 

Thailand faces an economic recession in the middle of 2023 with growth only rebounding in the third quarter of the year to come in at 2.8%, below this year’s GDP growth projections, according to an economic forecast released this week from a research house associated with a leading Thai bank.

 

The news comes as a number of former ministers, in recent months, have urged the government to prepare for challenging times ahead with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), in September, urging all central banks to stress test lending institutions for a possible deterioration in real estate values. Thailand’s exports fell by 4.4% in October while a key foreign tourism industry leader in Phuket is warning that Thailand’s famed resort island is losing ground among high-spending European and Scandinavian regular visitors to Bali in Indonesia with the country this year only expected to achieve just over 25% of the visitor volume seen in 2019 and just over 20% of the revenue generated from foreign tourism despite inflation and a three-year time lag.

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2022/12/01/baht-surges-but-thailand-faces-a-recession-in-2023/

 

-- © Copyright Thai Examiner 2022-12-02

 

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[RichardColeman]

2 hours ago, webfact said:

Thailand’s exports fell by 4.4% in October

Once lost due to the insane currency, it wont be back in a hurry.

[sqwakvfr]

Going from 38 to 35 is now the definition of “Surging”?  Back in 2013 it was 28 to $1 USD.  If it went back to that level then I would say “surging and boom, boom”.  

[nigelforbes]

18 minutes ago, sqwakvfr said:

Going from 38 to 35 is now the definition of “Surging”?  Back in 2013 it was 28 to $1 USD.  If it went back to that level then I would say “surging and boom, boom”.  

Yes, surging means to increase suddenly and powerfully. It doesn't mean to increase by huge amounts.

[ikke1959]

Prawit said the THB has to strenghten to 35 THb 1 USD..... and see what is happening... Proof that the Government is totally incompetent

[Dialemco]

Unfortunately Russian aggression is causing recession in many countries therefore there are not the same number of potential tourists to be able to travel to Thailand or anyway else in addition air fares have risen at least double prepandemic levels. 

[KhunLA]

Oh well ... It was a good 6 month run up

[Onerak]

14 minutes ago, Dialemco said:

Unfortunately Russian aggression is causing recession in many countries therefore there are not the same number of potential tourists to be able to travel to Thailand or anyway else in addition air fares have risen at least double prepandemic levels. 

Still not able to find a one-way ticket from ORD (Chicago) to BKK for less than $700 in March, 2023. Pre covid it was less than $550. Even one time I remember buying for $330 for one way ticket around 2018. May be I should buy one for my March 2023 travel begore it start going up. 

[flexomike]

1 hour ago, sqwakvfr said:

Going from 38 to 35 is now the definition of “Surging”?  Back in 2013 it was 28 to $1 USD.  If it went back to that level then I would say “surging and boom, boom”.  

In the last month the baht has gained 7.7 percent against the US dollar, now to me that is a major surge

[Bim Smith]

They would have weathered it better if they hadn't closed the country for two years over a flu. So would the world economy. No cared a jot about jobs and people's ability to feed themselves this past years only the mass hysteria over a disease that was no more deadly than the flu. Strange how virtually no one got flu this past two years also. 

[Onerak]

22 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

Oh well ... It was a good 6 month run up

My dream and many others' like me of Baht weakening to 40 baht/dollar was shattered. ???? Apparently, Bride seekers have returned with a vengeance for their "wife visa" after two years of hiatus ????

Edited December 2, 2022 by Onerak

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, Bim Smith said:

They would have weathered it better if they hadn't closed the country for two years over a flu. So would the world economy. No cared a jot about jobs and people's ability to feed themselves this past years only the mass hysteria over a disease that was no more deadly than the flu. Strange how virtually no one got flu this past two years also. 

Not sure about that....other countries were taking similar measures and that would have had the same effect on Thailand. The far higher death rates would have had impact too. A recession was inevitable. I thought all the people comparing Covid, that killed 6.5 million, to 'flu' had learned to keep quiet, but no, they still carp on with their fool's message.

How about we get back to the topic...... 

[Classic Ray]

I’m more concerned with the surge in prices locally, for all food but especially imports, that dwarfs any fluctuations in the value of the baht.

[nigelforbes]

53 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

Prawit said the THB has to strenghten to 35 THb 1 USD..... and see what is happening... Proof that the Government is totally incompetent

BOT and Finance will have determined the optimum level for THB, given the current economic circumstances both nationally and globally. 34/35 seems reasonable to me. A Baht that is too strong means exports become expensive and unattractive, too weak and imports such as oil become expensive plus inflation risks increase. That's what he means, it's not that he's incompetent, it just means you don't understand what was said or why.

[jacko45k]

14 minutes ago, Classic Ray said:

I’m more concerned with the surge in prices locally, for all food but especially imports, that dwarfs any fluctuations in the value of the baht.

I am concerned about electricity prices which I am told will rise substantially in the New Year..... had a go at the Mrs last night as to why we had a rice cooker on for hours on end!

[KhunLA]

32 minutes ago, Onerak said:

Still not able to find a one-way ticket from ORD (Chicago) to BKK for less than $700 in March, 2023. Pre covid it was less than $550. Even one time I remember buying for $330 for one way ticket around 2018. May be I should buy one for my March 2023 travel begore it start going up. 

Expect a bit of sticker shock with hotel rates also, as they pass on their higher electric costs to customers.  Noticeable increases the last couple times O&A.

Edited December 2, 2022 by KhunLA

[nigelforbes]

7 minutes ago, jacko45k said:

I am concerned about electricity prices which I am told will rise substantially in the New Year..... had a go at the Mrs last night as to why we had a rice cooker on for hours on end!

"If a rice cooker uses, say 627 watts during cooking, that is 0.627 kilowatts. The operational cost in this instance is 13 hundredths of one cent (per minute) which is $0.0013. The cost per hour is then $0.07 cents. If you leave the rice cooker on warm after the cooking is completed, for no more than an hour, then your cost per day is $0.14.  

That would mean it costs you potentially around $4-5 to run per month". 

 

https://kitchensnitches.com/how-much-electricity-do-rice-cookers-consume/

[DUNROAMIN]

I dont get it, how does the barht surge if the economy is going down???

[jacko45k]

1 minute ago, nigelforbes said:

"If a rice cooker uses, say 627 watts during cooking, that is 0.627 kilowatts. The operational cost in this instance is 13 hundredths of one cent (per minute) which is $0.0013. The cost per hour is then $0.07 cents. If you leave the rice cooker on warm after the cooking is completed, for no more than an hour, then your cost per day is $0.14.  

That would mean it costs you potentially around $4-5 to run per month". 

 

https://kitchensnitches.com/how-much-electricity-do-rice-cookers-consume/

So I had every right to complain!

[nigelforbes]

Just now, DUNROAMIN said:

I dont get it, how does the barht surge if the economy is going down???

It didn't USD weakened on the back of smaller rate increases.....but the net effect is similar, the THB/USD exchange strengthened.

[nigelforbes]

1 minute ago, jacko45k said:

So I had every right to complain!

She's your wife, of course you do.

[thailand49]

Thai leaders will lie,  beg, steal, sell their own to get what they want.

It isn't the dollar weakening they will prop it up like they have always done!  ????

[Cake Monster]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Once lost due to the insane currency, it wont be back in a hurry.

Exports falling as more to do with the Worlds Economy at this present time, and also competition from other Nations.

Thailand has a heavy reliance upon the CCP, and with that Economy in a slide, it is going to domino into Thailands GDP also. The CCP is steadily losing some of its business to India now, and other Nations such as Vietnam, are more progressive than the Thai structure for Business, and also taking Business away from Thai shores.

Tourism that accounts for roughly 18 % of GDP in Thailand will also slide away in 2023/4 .

With what appears to be rampant Inflation within the Country, and an insane amount of lending by Banks to people with little or no means of full repayment on their Loans taking Household Debt to nearly 100 % of GDP, the Country has dug as very deep hole to encourage Consumer spending with a zero safety net.

Hence the warnings from the IMF

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Cake Monster

[Raphael Hythlodaeus]

3 hours ago, RichardColeman said:

Once lost due to the insane currency, it wont be back in a hurry.

Richard, I don't expect anyone would be interested in my own OPINIONS. They might be interested in FACTS supported by the source which can then be discussed.

Are you achieving anything with your 57+ k posts? 

Just my OPINION of course !!! ????

Edited December 2, 2022 by Raphael Hythlodaeus

[Clarkey611]

1 hour ago, DUNROAMIN said:

I dont get it, how does the barht surge if the economy is going down???

Manipulation?

[spermwhale]

2 hours ago, sqwakvfr said:

Going from 38 to 35 is now the definition of “Surging”?  Back in 2013 it was 28 to $1 USD.  If it went back to that level then I would say “surging and boom, boom”.  

The more it surges the less boom boom will be had in Thailand. 

[nigelforbes]

13 minutes ago, Clarkey611 said:

Manipulation?

How?

[Pinot]

1 hour ago, Bim Smith said:

They would have weathered it better if they hadn't closed the country for two years over a flu. So would the world economy. No cared a jot about jobs and people's ability to feed themselves this past years only the mass hysteria over a disease that was no more deadly than the flu. Strange how virtually no one got flu this past two years also. 

What would we do without amateur epidemiologists? You know, people who make up their own facts to support their ridiculous comments. 

 

The pandemic killed 15 million people. It's still killing people. It's not the flu! Jesus wept. 

 

By the way, if you enjoy living get your covid and flu shots up to date. They're two separate things. You need both and they're easily available. Or go with the amateur epidemiologists. Let me know how that works out for you. 

 

14.9 Million Deaths

 

Edited December 2, 2022 by Pinot

[crazykopite]

The Thais are very good at currency manipulation one day and it’s not that far off it’s going to bite them in the rear end 

[fulhamster]

3 hours ago, sqwakvfr said:

Going from 38 to 35 is now the definition of “Surging”?  Back in 2013 it was 28 to $1 USD.  If it went back to that level then I would say “surging and boom, boom”.  

And goodbye