The S&P could fall as low as 3,000 points in 2023 - Morgan Stanley.

[nigelforbes]

3 minutes ago, Lucky Bones said:

Missed the humour in the comment did we?????????

It's really tough to know these day, who understands what, especially in forums such as these where people can cover themselves and use the, "it was a joke, stupid why didn't you get it" card to get out of jail free.

[Neeranam]

44 minutes ago, gargamon said:

During that year the crash happened and he lost his house. Pretty funny if you ask me.

Why do you find this funny? I think it's sad. 

Is it because you worked in silicon Valley and never made money like others? 

Maybe you have a resentment against crypto as you missed the boat there too. 

Actually, you haven't missed the boat, blockchain technology is the future. 

As for the Internet, its done pretty good too, look at Google, Facebook etc. 

Morgan Stanley are not fools, despite what you say. 

 

 

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, Neeranam said:

What do you mean? 

 

I mean that if I went into 7/11 I would not even be able to buy a cup of crypto coffee - - but if I had my wallet w/cash, no problem... 

 

You would appropriately say that I don't understand crypto and I would agree... but cash, I don't really need to understand... I don't launder money or have any need for secrecy... wooooo - - 

 

Stocks fluctuate but ultimately it is based on a companies performance - sure, there is price movement dependent on perceptions of where it might produce future profits...

 

whereas crypto fluctuates based only on ???? .. my pet rock has more physical presence... 

 

what I am saying is that crypto could halve or double for no particular reason other than sentiment or a celebrity endorsement... there is no other asset that I know of that has no 'there - there' 

 

 

[gargamon]

16 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

Why do you find this funny? I think it's sad. 

Is it because you worked in silicon Valley and never made money like others? 

Maybe you have a resentment against crypto as you missed the boat there too. 

Actually, you haven't missed the boat, blockchain technology is the future. 

As for the Internet, its done pretty good too, look at Google, Facebook etc. 

Morgan Stanley are not fools, despite what you say. 

 

 

So pointless to continue this farcical conversation. You obviously have a lot tied up in crypto and will hype it as much as you can until you can get out. It's called pump and dump. Good luck finding enough suckers. 

[Neeranam]

51 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

I mean that if I went into 7/11 I would not even be able to buy a cup of crypto coffee - - but if I had my wallet w/cash, no problem... 

 

You would appropriately say that I don't understand crypto and I would agree... but cash, I don't really need to understand... I don't launder money or have any need for secrecy... wooooo - - 

All my family have gone digital, when I send allowances every week, they all ask for digital transaction, ie sent to their account,they don't use cash at all. Thailand is going the same way as China, a cashless society. I left the house the other day without my wallet with paper money -  I played golf, tipped the caddy etc using my phone. Blockchain makes things easier, and yes you don't understand, all transactions on the blockchain are transparent and registered for anyone to see, believing Bitcoin to be secret is what Luddites and Fuddites said years ago. 

I pay my  bills with a crypto.com card, and get 3% back in crypto. I pay my kid's school and university, 4 phones bills, weekly/monthly shopping at Tesco, actually pretty much everything. 

[Neeranam]

49 minutes ago, gargamon said:

You obviously have a lot tied up in crypto and will hype it as much as you can until you can get out.

I am not hyping crypto. 

[1FinickyOne]

30 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

All my family have gone digital, when I send allowances every week, they all ask for digital transaction, ie sent to their account,they don't use cash at all. Thailand is going the same way as China, a cashless society. I left the house the other day without my wallet with paper money -  I played golf, tipped the caddy etc using my phone. Blockchain makes things easier, and yes you don't understand, all transactions on the blockchain are transparent and registered for anyone to see, believing Bitcoin to be secret is what Luddites and Fuddites said years ago. 

I pay my  bills with a crypto.com card, and get 3% back in crypto. I pay my kid's school and university, 4 phones bills, weekly/monthly shopping at Tesco, actually pretty much everything. 

well, hopefully one day you won't have to do any mining... 

 

And w/ no wallet and cash, what would you have done if you want a bottle of water somewhere? 

 

and don't get me started on the silliness of golf... the illusion of power by being able to drive a little ball out of sight... 

Edited January 17, 2023 by 1FinickyOne

[save the frogs]

10 hours ago, gargamon said:

I worked in silicon valley during the dotcom bubble. It was the same. Companies that were making no money with stock market valuations through the roof. The hype was that they didn't need to make money, and it all depended on the number of eyeballs they attracted. At the time I couldn't believe it lasted as long as it did. Just like I can't believe crypto has lasted this long .

 

Silicon valley was interesting. Everybody was a (multi) millionaire on paper. The engineers all thought it would go on forever. The secretaries were the smart ones. They were the ones who cashed out early and took their million. The engineers held out until the end and ended up with little. One engineer thought he was clever, took out a mortgage on his house so he could buy his options. He needed to hold them a year to get taxed at long term capital gains rate. During that year the crash happened and he lost his house. Pretty funny if you ask me.

 

In the dotcom bubble, Morgan Stanley, or it's equivalents at the time, were all hyping dotcom. Were they wrong? Yes, they were, just like the ones buying crypto now are wrong. Their profits come from transactions. The more suckers they get to do transactions, the more money they make.

you've highlighted the 2 biggest problems with the stock market.

1 - the stock prices are not directly related to company performance, so cannot be predicted. no one can predict stocks. 

2 - the stock market is like a casino. when stocks go high fast, the casino knows people will get greedy and not pull out on time. then the dealer pulls the rug, so dealer usually wins. 

 

[save the frogs]

9 hours ago, Neeranam said:

blockchain technology is the future. 

but not necessarily for gambling. 

[gargamon]

1 hour ago, save the frogs said:

you've highlighted the 2 biggest problems with the stock market.

1 - the stock prices are not directly related to company performance, so cannot be predicted. no one can predict stocks. 

2 - the stock market is like a casino. when stocks go high fast, the casino knows people will get greedy and not pull out on time. then the dealer pulls the rug, so dealer usually wins. 

 

That's why index funds are the way to go. I never worry about pulling out on time. Ride the cycle. It will come back. You definitely can't do that with individual stocks.

 

Timing the market is a futile quest. If you do happen to buy/sell at the right time, it was a fluke. You cannot possibly consistently do it.

 

Besides, why waste all that time? I spend less than 30 minutes a year adjusting my portfolio.

[Gaccha]

The SP500 green flags are screaming BUY this week. The sheer number of indicators flashing green are remarkable.

 

 

If you can rely on the past then by day 252, you can expect a return of 24%.

 

 

Obviously we all have our own buying strategies, but to me, the key is to buy as a contrarian, when my gut says "don't!", when everyone says "don't!", that's my moment.

 

 

Gentleman, if you can hear me over the screams to buy, and the terror of the doomsayers saying noooo, then I just want to say I'll talk again in 252 days.

 

[Neeranam]

2 hours ago, gargamon said:

Timing the market is a futile quest.

Time in the market is better than timing the market. 

However, swing trading doesn't take long to learn and is worth it, IMHO 

[spidermike007]

The economy is long overdue for a major correction. The S & P dropping to 800, and the Dow dropping to 6,000 is not out of the realm of possibility. Likewise, real estate prices plummeting by 60% is also possible. 

 

Hope you have a cheery day! 

[Jingthing]

8 hours ago, gargamon said:

That's why index funds are the way to go. I never worry about pulling out on time. Ride the cycle. It will come back. You definitely can't do that with individual stocks.

 

Timing the market is a futile quest. If you do happen to buy/sell at the right time, it was a fluke. You cannot possibly consistently do it.

 

Besides, why waste all that time? I spend less than 30 minutes a year adjusting my portfolio.

You're basically right for long term investors (as opposed to active traders) but I've recently found it's kind of fun to have at least o portion of your portfolio in indivual stocks. For the very knowledgeable it could even be 100 percent but if it's more of a hobby perhaps 20 percent would be OK for most. Doesn't mean you'll beat the indexes but if you buy a bunch of stocks in different sectors / caps / growth / value / dividends / regions etc., you are diversifying, and it's not likely to be much worse than the market. 

Edited January 17, 2023 by Jingthing

[gargamon]

4 hours ago, Jingthing said:

Doesn't mean you'll beat the indexes but if you buy a bunch of stocks in different sectors / caps / growth / value / dividends / regions etc., you are diversifying, and it's not likely to be much worse than the market. 

I will always have something better to do than than manage my own mutual fund, which is what you are describing. Especially when, as you say, if I'm really good, I might get close to the performance I'm getting now by just buying a mutual fund. I'll never be so bored I'd waste all that time/effort.

Edited January 18, 2023 by gargamon

[Jingthing]

1 hour ago, gargamon said:

I will always have something better to do than than manage my own mutual fund, which is what you are describing. Especially when, as you say, if I'm really good, I might get close to the performance I'm getting now by just buying a mutual fund. I'll never be so bored I'd waste all that time/effort.

Up to you.

But you can learn a lot about the real world by getting into this.

I've found it intellectually stimulating.

Zinc mines in South America to power EVs.

Pharmaceutical pipelines.

Anti obesity wonder drugs.

Waste management company so boring but safe dividends.

Amazon so much more than shopping. Who knew?

The fates of the multiple corporations I used to work for.

It brings me back to college where I wrote a long paper about the American beer industry.

 

Also I'm doing buy and hold. Not really active management. 

 

Of course I'll keep an eye on developments.

 

One suggestion I do have to people that don't stock pick.

 

Consider Berkshire Hathaway  B.

It's a stock that is in many ways like a fund itself as it holds so many stocks. 

 

Also when you buy Berkshire you're buying a lot of Amazon and Bsnk of America

 

https://capital.com/top-20-berkshire-hathaway-holdings-buffett-buys

 

 

Edited January 18, 2023 by Jingthing

[1FinickyOne]

On 1/17/2023 at 11:05 AM, Neeranam said:

All my family have gone digital, when I send allowances every week, they all ask for digital transaction, ie sent to their account,they don't use cash at all. Thailand is going the same way as China, a cashless society. I left the house the other day without my wallet with paper money -  I played golf, tipped the caddy etc using my phone. Blockchain makes things easier, and yes you don't understand, all transactions on the blockchain are transparent and registered for anyone to see, believing Bitcoin to be secret is what Luddites and Fuddites said years ago. 

I pay my  bills with a crypto.com card, and get 3% back in crypto. I pay my kid's school and university, 4 phones bills, weekly/monthly shopping at Tesco, actually pretty much everything. 

ps - Roubini just said 99% of crypto is a scam... maybe he said 90% before, but if he is even 50% correct, that's a lot of alligators in the waters... 

[Neeranam]

17 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

ps - Roubini just said 99% of crypto is a scam... maybe he said 90% before, but if he is even 50% correct, that's a lot of alligators in the waters... 

Whoever he is, obviously doesn't understand crypto.  Maybe he should tell Morgan Stanley ???? 

[Neeranam]

24 minutes ago, 1FinickyOne said:

ps - Roubini just said 99% of crypto is a scam... maybe he said 90% before, but if he is even 50% correct, that's a lot of alligators in the waters... 

If it's the guy in this video, what an ignoramus, he obviously knows nothing. I don't even know where to begin -  https://finance.yahoo.com/nouriel-roubini-crypto-scam-144628068.html

[1FinickyOne]

15 minutes ago, Neeranam said:

If it's the guy in this video, what an ignoramus, he obviously knows nothing. I don't even know where to begin -  https://finance.yahoo.com/nouriel-roubini-crypto-scam-144628068.html

So, you are saying Bankman-Fried, a crypto expert knows better? 

[Neeranam]

4 hours ago, 1FinickyOne said:

So, you are saying Bankman-Fried, a crypto expert knows better? 

No, not at all. He is a conman; there are many conmen in dollars, aren't there?

You must admit, if you watch that video, he is spouting nonsense. 

[Jingthing]

I'm with the technology is important but all the speculation on coins is ponzi city brigade.

[1FinickyOne]

1 hour ago, Neeranam said:

No, not at all. He is a conman; there are many conmen in dollars, aren't there?

You must admit, if you watch that video, he is spouting nonsense. 

I guess my thoughts are this.. money is money... you don't have to explain much.. if you need to explain it to me, then I am out.... 

[Neeranam]

9 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

I'm with the technology is important but all the speculation on coins is ponzi city brigade.

Don't put them all in one basket. 

 

[itsari]

On 1/11/2023 at 9:19 AM, Adumbration said:

In relative terms I like to think of myself as broke.  But I still have too much money to qualify for the OAP.

You must be Australian for that eventuality . 

Means testing pensions for what you have paid into in  first world  countries is not attempted apart from Australia .

[Neeranam]

On 1/16/2023 at 11:14 PM, Neeranam said:

@gargamon I repeat my questions -   are you saying MS didn't buy BTC recently? Do you think they are foolish?

And what make it so utterly pathetic is that Jamie Dimon continues to spread FUD about Bitcoin, whilst buying it all up. The traditional banking system is going down, look at the Bank of America recently.

 

Edited January 20, 2023 by Neeranam

[Neeranam]

On 1/19/2023 at 8:48 PM, Jingthing said:

I'm with the technology is important but all the speculation on coins is ponzi city brigade.

Did you know the US government bought BTC last week? Well according to Tucker Carlson. 

[Jingthing]

The U.S. government SEIZES crypto from CRIMINALS. Then later it auctions them off.

 

 

[Rimmer]

A post with a link to an unauthorized questionable source  has been removed

[ozimoron]

We could see a stock market crash next week. Technical indicators are showing a divergence between the S&P market price and the RSI. This would also affect crypto and gold negatively. It will be interesting to see if it happens. 

 

Intel posted a dismal forecast today. The Fed are also in disagreement with the market and the saying is never fight the Fed. If they raise interest rates by more than 0.25% next week, it's on.