What's your fact based forecast for the AUD?

[scorecard]

What's your fact based forecast for the AUD?

 

Will it get back  to around 23.5 to 1Baht in the near future?

[CharlieKo]

No such thing as a fact based forecast. However the answer to your question is. It might or it might not. Probably it won't get back to 23.5 in the near future!  

[Celsius]

How old are people posting on this forum?

[NONG CHOK]

Maybe a change of government here may see the AU/Thai exchange rate improve. I moved over here 20 years ago and the AU$ was barely 19 baht. Then it surged to around 27 baht and I was geting 33.5 Baht when Yinluck was PM. Shortly after the military muscled in it swiftly declined. Given the ecconomic situation in Australia at the moment I can't see much change if things remain as they are.

[Fat is a type of crazy]

Interest rates are one significant factor and before the decision last week economists from banks and elsewhere were 50 50 whether it would rise or stay the same. Point being if they aren't sure about something a bit more straight forward like that any free advice here will be worth what you paid for it as they say. 

[scorecard]

3 hours ago, Celsius said:

How old are people posting on this forum?

Why?

[gearbox]

3 hours ago, Celsius said:

How old are people posting on this forum?

Probably most are 60+...but how is this relevant to the topic?

[scorecard]

9 minutes ago, gearbox said:

Probably most are 60+...but how is this relevant to the topic?

Good question. 

[NONG CHOK]

If it dusturbs you I exercise every morning, drink beer in the evening and throw the leg sometime after that and I'm 80 years old. I must add I don't fire blanks either. I hope that answers your question.

[scorecard]

I still wonder why the poster asked he question

1 hour ago, NONG CHOK said:

If it dusturbs you I exercise every morning, drink beer in the evening and throw the leg sometime after that and I'm 80 years old. I must add I don't fire blanks either. I hope that answers your question.

Similat at 78.

I still wonder WHY the poser asked 'How old are people posting on this forum?'

[Adumbration]

No.  Your chance to exchange AUD for 23.5 baht is long gone.

 

Move quickly if you want to still get 21.

 

And if you are living on an Australian OAP, make sure you have your ducks in a row so that you can live when the exchange rate is below 

18.

 

Fact 1:

There has not been a single time in all recorded economic history where inflation was brought under control until the cash rate was raised higher than the CPI print.

 

CPI rate currently 7-8%  and cash rate still sub 4%.

 

Fact 2: Interest rates are going to be held much higher and for much longer than most politicians, banks and other talking heads currently expect.

 

Fact 3: As I have already posted numerous times inflation will ease slightly over the next few months but then it will surge even higher later in the year and moving into 2024.  Food shortages (due to fertilizer shortages and subsequent depleted crop yields) will drive inflation to new highs.

 

Fact 4: The RBA are entirely corrupt.  They paused on rates (a soft pivot) in the facile attempt to stop the complete implosion of the residential property market.  But they are retarded because if they fail to raise in lockstep with the US and Europe the AUD will collapse further, and then higher inflation due to more expensive imports is a given.

 

Fact 5: When, not if, America joins in conflict against China, Australia will lose access more than 70% of its export markets.

 

When China moves on Taiwan, or when Putin fires a tactical nuke the AUD will collapse below 50C on the USD.

 

Use your AUD to buy gold.  I bought a large holding of Thai gold ingots just a few weeks back and have already made nearly 10% on my money.

 

And finally.  Why was there a need to start a new thread.  There is already a great deal of useful information posted in the thread I started on this very topic months ago:

 

 

Edited April 8, 2023 by Adumbration

[NONG CHOK]

If your an Aussie living in Thailand you will understand my advice. You're a gamer man than me Gunga Din.

[scorecard]

On 4/8/2023 at 7:49 PM, NONG CHOK said:

If your an Aussie living in Thailand you will understand my advice. You're a gamer man than me Gunga Din.

Why's that, please share.

[KhunHeineken]

On 4/8/2023 at 12:37 PM, Adumbration said:

No.  Your chance to exchange AUD for 23.5 baht is long gone.

 

Move quickly if you want to still get 21.

 

And if you are living on an Australian OAP, make sure you have your ducks in a row so that you can live when the exchange rate is below 

18.

 

Fact 1:

There has not been a single time in all recorded economic history where inflation was brought under control until the cash rate was raised higher than the CPI print.

 

CPI rate currently 7-8%  and cash rate still sub 4%.

 

Fact 2: Interest rates are going to be held much higher and for much longer than most politicians, banks and other talking heads currently expect.

 

Fact 3: As I have already posted numerous times inflation will ease slightly over the next few months but then it will surge even higher later in the year and moving into 2024.  Food shortages (due to fertilizer shortages and subsequent depleted crop yields) will drive inflation to new highs.

 

Fact 4: The RBA are entirely corrupt.  They paused on rates (a soft pivot) in the facile attempt to stop the complete implosion of the residential property market.  But they are retarded because if they fail to raise in lockstep with the US and Europe the AUD will collapse further, and then higher inflation due to more expensive imports is a given.

 

Fact 5: When, not if, America joins in conflict against China, Australia will lose access more than 70% of its export markets.

 

When China moves on Taiwan, or when Putin fires a tactical nuke the AUD will collapse below 50C on the USD.

 

Use your AUD to buy gold.  I bought a large holding of Thai gold ingots just a few weeks back and have already made nearly 10% on my money.

 

And finally.  Why was there a need to start a new thread.  There is already a great deal of useful information posted in the thread I started on this very topic months ago:

 

 

Good post. 

 

I just posted this link in another thread. 

 

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/a-feeble-economy-for-rest-of-decade-imf-downbeat-on-outlook-20230411-p5czgf.html

 

It paints a bleak picture of the Australian economy. 

[KhunHeineken]

On 4/12/2023 at 3:04 PM, scorecard said:

Why's that, please share.

It means Australia is heading towards becoming a banana republic.