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Tourism officials say domestic visitors making up bulk of Songkran tourists


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Posted

26334666394_fc0cdfa3d5_o.jpg

PHOTO: Flickr/dominique cappronnier

 

Tourism representatives say most of Thailand’s Songkran tourists are domestic, while most international visitors are from neighbouring countries, where Thailand is a short haul destination. Thaneth Tantipiriyakij from the Phuket Tourist Association says he expects 40% of tourists visiting Phuket this year to be Thai, compared to 30% in 2019.

 

“The association is focusing on travellers from inside the nation and from other Asian countries, except China, where tourism has not yet recovered. European travellers are not our primary market during this Songkran period because they normally come to Thailand in the winter to escape the cold.”

 

According to a Nation Thailand report, Thanet expects visitor numbers on the island to exceed 50% of 2019 figures, generating around 70% of 2019 revenue.

 

Full Story: https://phuket-go.com/phuket-news/national-news/tourism-officials-say-domestic-visitors-making-up-bulk-of-songkran-tourists/

 

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Posted
27 minutes ago, dinsdale said:

Yesterday: "The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) anticipates that both Thai and foreign tourists will contribute up to 18.53 billion baht during the three-day event. Meanwhile, the Kasikorn Research Centre estimates that Thai tourists alone could spend as much as 23 billion baht."

 

Today: "Tourism representatives say most of Thailand’s Songkran tourists are domestic, while most international visitors are from neighbouring countries, where Thailand is a short haul destination."

".... European travellers are not our primary market during this Songkran period because they normally come to Thailand in the winter to escape the cold.”

 

Guess it didn't go the way their 'expert' figures projected.

 

On the contrary, TAT has always understood that domestic tourism has been the economic driver since covid began in 2019. The domestic tourism contribution to consumer consumption far outweighs anything the limited number of international tourists can add, except in places such as Phuket. Even before covid, regional tourists comprised 75% of all international tourists, long haul western tourism has been secondary for many years.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, bradiston said:

Hmm, bit of a climb down from the usual 100 billion THB predicted from 5 million visitors this Songkran, isn't it? Somebody with the balls to report more realistic figures.

Not if each of them, toddler to granny, spends 20,000 baht each. LOL

 

But it will be a fraction of that...

Edited by StayinThailand2much
Posted

Domestic Tourists making up the bulk of Tourism for Songkran

This means there are not so many International Tourists on Thai soil at the moment.

High Season well and truly over.

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Posted
14 minutes ago, bradiston said:

I'm really not sure what you're saying has any truth in it at all. Domestic tourism has been hugely subsidised by the govern5fir years. Several campaigns to try and get Thais to travel inside Thailand and spend have been launched. Yes, they were a huge success, but at an enormous cost to the Exchequer. And Thais don't bring in any foreign exchange. Just a few measly baht. They almost always bring their own food and drink. Rarely eat out. Rarely even leave their booked at a discount rooms. And what is "consumer consumption"?

 

As for regional tourists, I guess that's the sector including Lao, Cambodian, Malay, Vietnamese and Burmese right? Do Thais holiday in those countries? Are you kidding? I don't think most visitors from the region are tourists. Migrant workers maybe. Day trippers. I wouldn't believe a single word out of TAT.

I thought the issue was domestic or international tourism estimates in the eyes of TAT, and your comments therein? The extent to which government subsidised domestic tourism programs is, I think, a different subject entirely.

 

Foreign currency exchange in itself doesn't improve GDP or the Thai economy very much at all, spending by tourists does because that puts income into the hands of the Thai consumer who then spend it to live.....that spending is known in GDP as Domestic or Consumer Consumption. Anyone can put that money into their hands, international tourists or domestic ones. International tourism does help increase BOT foreign currency reserves which in turn help strengthen the Baht. But that foreign currency doesn't serve any other purposes apart from being available to pay for imports if payment in that currency is required. This entire subject is discussed at length in the Baht Thread which I've linked below, in case you are interested.

 

Regional tourism is also discussed at length in the attached thread, there are also some charts and links showing tourists by country of origin. From memory, regional tourists account for over 74% of all International tourists, during the past year Malaysian tourists were the biggest single group. I's a fallacy to think that Western tourists are dominant or that Chinese are so today, neither is true. It's also a fallacy to think that regional (not necessarily neighbors) are major components of international tourism to Thailand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted

with stories like that or similar happening on a daily basis TAT numbers surely will go down as no or minimum foreigners will come.... great advertise for a "Thailand is Safe"

 

Pattaya motorcycle taxi rider threatens to kill 2 foreigners over fare dispute

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mavideol said:

with stories like that or similar happening on a daily basis TAT numbers surely will go down as no or minimum foreigners will come.... great advertise for a "Thailand is Safe"

 

Pattaya motorcycle taxi rider threatens to kill 2 foreigners over fare dispute

Wasn't there talk of 'Thailand is dangerous' in Chinese social media recently? While I doubt that news as above will keep the average Westerner from coming, things might very well be different with the preferred arrivals, Chinese and Indians...

Edited by StayinThailand2much
Posted
17 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

European travellers are not our primary market during this Songkran period because they normally come to Thailand in the winter to escape the cold.

The first couple times I travelled to Thailand and Phuket it was in summer. Also, Europeans plan their holidays ahead, esp. if it is long-distance like to Thailand. But those TAT guys don't understand that. If they promote Thailand in November, they will get few takers during winter.

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

(...) except China, where tourism has not yet recovered.

Not true. Domestic air travel in China is back to 80% post-Covid, and Chinese tourists have been travelling in large numbers everywhere in the world for weeks and months now. Maybe travel (prices) to Thailand is/are not that attractive anymore...

Edited by StayinThailand2much
Posted
2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

I thought the issue was domestic or international tourism estimates in the eyes of TAT, and your comments therein? The extent to which government subsidised domestic tourism programs is, I think, a different subject entirely.

 

Foreign currency exchange in itself doesn't improve GDP or the Thai economy very much at all, spending by tourists does because that puts income into the hands of the Thai consumer who then spend it to live.....that spending is known in GDP as Domestic or Consumer Consumption. Anyone can put that money into their hands, international tourists or domestic ones. International tourism does help increase BOT foreign currency reserves which in turn help strengthen the Baht. But that foreign currency doesn't serve any other purposes apart from being available to pay for imports if payment in that currency is required. This entire subject is discussed at length in the Baht Thread which I've linked below, in case you are interested.

 

Regional tourism is also discussed at length in the attached thread, there are also some charts and links showing tourists by country of origin. From memory, regional tourists account for over 74% of all International tourists, during the past year Malaysian tourists were the biggest single group. I's a fallacy to think that Western tourists are dominant or that Chinese are so today, neither is true. It's also a fallacy to think that regional (not necessarily neighbors) are major components of international tourism to Thailand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Much of what you say is agreed upon. Regional tourism makes up ~75% of tourism overall. But we were being told only a few months ago that tourism was an essential pillar of the Thai economy, in the region of 20% of GDP. This figure moves around, from a low of 9%. Whether international or domestic seems moot. But the estimates and projections made by TAT and Phuket were in the order of billions incoming from international (non regional?) tourists. Now they say actually most of it is domestic or regional. Surely domestic tourism is just churn. It's just spending in a different location.

 

So if what you say is right the farenghi are not very important to the Thai economy at all. But I don't actually believe that either. I did some sums last year based on the most up to date stats I could find on how many expats were based here and a nominal average annual spend. It was not peanuts. All those figures I've now lost.

 

Actually, I can find no stats on who spends what when they come to Thailand. Maybe you have sources. But there are endless projections of 30m visitors, xxx trillion THB etc. With TAT I glance and go. Nothing to see here. Move along. Why don't their press releases ever quote sources?

Posted
15 minutes ago, bradiston said:

Much of what you say is agreed upon. Regional tourism makes up ~75% of tourism overall. But we were being told only a few months ago that tourism was an essential pillar of the Thai economy, in the region of 20% of GDP. This figure moves around, from a low of 9%. Whether international or domestic seems moot. But the estimates and projections made by TAT and Phuket were in the order of billions incoming from international (non regional?) tourists. Now they say actually most of it is domestic or regional. Surely domestic tourism is just churn. It's just spending in a different location.

 

So if what you say is right the farenghi are not very important to the Thai economy at all. But I don't actually believe that either. I did some sums last year based on the most up to date stats I could find on how many expats were based here and a nominal average annual spend. It was not peanuts. All those figures I've now lost.

 

Actually, I can find no stats on who spends what when they come to Thailand. Maybe you have sources. But there are endless projections of 30m visitors, xxx trillion THB etc. With TAT I glance and go. Nothing to see here. Move along. Why don't their press releases ever quote sources?

Tourism overall is equal to about 20% of the Thai economy, in a normal year. That is divided between domestic (Thailand citizens/residents only) and international (anyone from another country, regardless of whether they live in the Asia Region or outside). Domestic tourism is around 9% of GDP, International is around 11%, approximately the total is 20%. Often the people who write about Tourism and the economy seem to use one number or the other, without knowing which or why! 

 

I don't agree that domestic tourism is chrun. People everywhere save up for their holidays, it's non-routine spending.

 

Lastly, the value of farangs in Thailand. If you calculate the best case scenario, the total value of all expat farangs in Thailand is no more than 3% of GDP. Even if everyone was to leave tomorrow and remove their 800K baht from the banks, nobody would suffer any great pain.

 

 

Posted
3 hours ago, Mavideol said:

with stories like that or similar happening on a daily basis TAT numbers surely will go down as no or minimum foreigners will come.... great advertise for a "Thailand is Safe"

 

Pattaya motorcycle taxi rider threatens to kill 2 foreigners over fare dispute

Well i do agree with you but how many tourists read this 

Posted

The Thai Gov, offered a limited amount to subsidise hotels re 40% . That money got spent very quickly with people planning Songran holidays. As a foreigner with a Thai girlfriend I got the benefit too 555

Posted
12 hours ago, bradiston said:

Much of what you say is agreed upon. Regional tourism makes up ~75% of tourism overall. But we were being told only a few months ago that tourism was an essential pillar of the Thai economy, in the region of 20% of GDP. This figure moves around, from a low of 9%. Whether international or domestic seems moot. But the estimates and projections made by TAT and Phuket were in the order of billions incoming from international (non regional?) tourists. Now they say actually most of it is domestic or regional. Surely domestic tourism is just churn. It's just spending in a different location.

 

So if what you say is right the farenghi are not very important to the Thai economy at all. But I don't actually believe that either. I did some sums last year based on the most up to date stats I could find on how many expats were based here and a nominal average annual spend. It was not peanuts. All those figures I've now lost.

 

Actually, I can find no stats on who spends what when they come to Thailand. Maybe you have sources. But there are endless projections of 30m visitors, xxx trillion THB etc. With TAT I glance and go. Nothing to see here. Move along. Why don't their press releases ever quote sources?

The National Statistics Office or NSO produces stats on just about everything, it's a stat geeks heaven (the link is below). One of their offerings is tourist arrivals by nationality, for every year since 2012. Below is a list of regions showing arrivals in 2012 and 2019 so you can see the change and latest full year stats pre-covid (in millions rounded). Note: the NSO hasn't published 2022 numbers yet and the 2020/2021 numbers are heavily distorted because of covid:

 

ASEAN - 6.3, 10.8, 

Other E Asia - 6.2, 16.6

Europe - 5.6, 6.7 

America's - 1.1, 1.6 

SA - 1.3, 2.4

S Asia - 1.3, 2.4 

Oceana - 1.0, 0.9  

ME - 0.6, 0.7

Africa - 0.2, 0.2

 

in 2019, S and SE Asia generated  about 30 mill tourists (75%) whereas the remaining approx 10 mill were from other countries, including US and Europe. I have seen numbers for 2022 which show a trend similar to the above continuing, I'll dig them out and post them.

 

http://statbbi.nso.go.th/staticreport/page/sector/en/17.aspx

 

Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Even if everyone was to leave tomorrow and remove their 800K baht from the banks, nobody would suffer any great pain

Not so sure there. I can't locate the Bangkok Post article but foreign funds were substantial. Most Thais broke, indebted. It's not so much the lump sum but the liquidity and fractional reserve practices (lending). 

 

My guess is the money plenty important and if some event triggered a truly massive exodus there would be serious problems especially given the state of economy and no signs of any plan or clue to sort out intrinsic and institutional problems

Edited by Menken
Posted
52 minutes ago, Menken said:

Not so sure there. I can't locate the Bangkok Post article but foreign funds were substantial. Most Thais broke, indebted. It's not so much the lump sum but the liquidity and fractional reserve practices (lending). 

 

My guess is the money plenty important and if some event triggered a truly massive exodus there would be serious problems especially given the state of economy and no signs of any plan or clue to sort out intrinsic and institutional problems

Many many western expats have harboured the notion for the past two decades that they are Thailand's financial salvation, they really do need to get over themselves! 

 

There is something like 4 million foreigners living in Thailand, legally and illegally, only about 130,000 of them are westerns retirees and expats, the vast majority are workers from neighbouring countries. As we have seen  repeatedly from this forum, many Western expats don't even have the funds in Thailand to be able to obtain a long term visa and must resort to using dodgy agents.

 

130k bank accounts times an extremely generous 600k per account equals about USD 2.5 bill. or 0.5% of GDP or not really anything at all in economic or banking terms. By way of an example, here's the balance sheet of BBL:

 

https://www.bangkokbank.com/-/media/files/investor-relations/agm/2023/agm2023_summary_en.pdf?la=en&hash=3903ECE2D34A1DE75C88D5DA303AE941CF81BD18

 

130k accounts times an average 60k Baht per month times 12 months equals USD 3 bill per year in cash flow, spread across all the banks in Thailand. Basel III Capital Adequacy regulation require banks in Thailand to hold a minimum 8% Tier I and 18% through Tier II.....see the BBL balance sheet above and do the math, it wouldn't even dent cash flow. Just as an aside, Bank of Ayudhya (sp) is owned by Bank Sumitomo Mitsubishi which has over three trillion USD in assets.

 

Lastly, BOT holds about USD 220 bill in Foreign Currency Reserves, the bank of last resort is well capitalised.

 

 

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, nigelforbes said:

Below is TISCO's tourist arrivals forecast which uses the NSO data as its base. You can see the forward looking estimates for arrivals show that ASEAN countries and Asia continue to be the source of most arrivals throughout.

 

https://www.thaienquirer.com/46530/thailand-sees-better-tourism-arrival-in-november-than-estimates-but-spending-remains-subdued-due-to-global-economic-slowdown/

 

November-2022-Foreign-Tourist-Arrivals-Estimates-for-2023-2024-1024x606.jpg

 

 

 

I only have figures for 2018, and I'm not disputing where the majority of arrivals originate from. It's plain to see. But arrivals simply means they pass through immigration. How many are high spending tourists? I would guess from ASEAN, except Singapore, and possibly Malaysia, a very small percentage. And how long do they stay? Cross border trade between Thailand and its immediate neighbours is huge, just for everyday items. But it's a 2 to 3 day visit. Sure there's revenue there. But hardly an input into tourism revenue. The majority are migrant workers, nothing to do with tourism. The link below is to a massive 220 page report, but the first 40 pages have tables.

 

https://thailand.un.org/sites/default/files/2020-06/Thailand-Migration-Report-2019.pdf

 

Also, according to immigration statistics as of 2018, there were 150,707 "ex pats" living in Thailand, by visa status. Just 72,969 retirees. The remainder, and the majority, had family here. But taken as a whole, 150,000 people either supporting themselves or family, and extended families, making a sizable contribution to the Thai economy. Supposing, including rent, and all other outgoings, the daily spend was 3000 thb. That's 450m per day, 13.5b per month, 164b per annum. Include assets, vehicles, property, money held in banks, investments, businesses.... I think ex pats contibute well, in proportion to their relatively small numbers. And we're here in the main, 24/7. So it's not just a 2 week pre booked holiday with much of the outlay staying in the country of origin. We spend at all levels, from street to penthouse.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, bradiston said:

I only have figures for 2018, and I'm not disputing where the majority of arrivals originate from. It's plain to see. But arrivals simply means they pass through immigration. How many are high spending tourists? I would guess from ASEAN, except Singapore, and possibly Malaysia, a very small percentage. And how long do they stay? Cross border trade between Thailand and its immediate neighbours is huge, just for everyday items. But it's a 2 to 3 day visit. Sure there's revenue there. But hardly an input into tourism revenue. The majority are migrant workers, nothing to do with tourism. The link below is to a massive 220 page report, but the first 40 pages have tables.

 

https://thailand.un.org/sites/default/files/2020-06/Thailand-Migration-Report-2019.pdf

 

Also, according to immigration statistics as of 2018, there were 150,707 "ex pats" living in Thailand, by visa status. Just 72,969 retirees. The remainder, and the majority, had family here. But taken as a whole, 150,000 people either supporting themselves or family, and extended families, making a sizable contribution to the Thai economy. Supposing, including rent, and all other outgoings, the daily spend was 3000 thb. That's 450m per day, 13.5b per month, 164b per annum. Include assets, vehicles, property, money held in banks, investments, businesses.... I think ex pats contibute well, in proportion to their relatively small numbers. And we're here in the main, 24/7. So it's not just a 2 week pre booked holiday with much of the outlay staying in the country of origin. We spend at all levels, from street to penthouse.

A lot of points there, let me just make a few comments before sitting down to read the report.

 

I haven't done it for over a year but I did sit down with the AOT investors report which gave detail stats of passengers arriving by air at all AOT airports, this was net passengers, excluding transits. By factoring in the traffic at non-AOT airports it was fairly easy to agree with TAT's overall tourist arrivals numbers, this meant that land border arrivals were not part of TAT's equation and weren't being counted.

 

Spend per day and length of stay, by country of origin, is included in the link that I posted earlier, the National Stats Office, I think if you check you'll see that Malays are fairly high spenders. It's important also to deal in average spend rather than high spend. I've been through this loop so many times of posting numbers I'm not inclined to do it again because I'm not the one who needs to be convinced what the reality is.

 

150k expats versus 130k expats, doesn't change the calculation very much as far as the impact on spending and banks if they all repatriated tomorrow, the banks here are much bigger than most people understand. Also, AVERAGE expat spending is a lot lower than 3k per day, way way lower.

 

 

 

 

Posted
18 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

But those TAT guys don't understand that. If they promote Thailand in November, they will get few takers during winter.

Of course they do.

I think it was back in 2012 that TAT took the decision to move the focus of their marketing from the west to the east, in particular India and China.

Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, nigelforbes said:

A lot of points there, let me just make a few comments before sitting down to read the report.

 

I haven't done it for over a year but I did sit down with the AOT investors report which gave detail stats of passengers arriving by air at all AOT airports, this was net passengers, excluding transits. By factoring in the traffic at non-AOT airports it was fairly easy to agree with TAT's overall tourist arrivals numbers, this meant that land border arrivals were not part of TAT's equation and weren't being counted.

 

Spend per day and length of stay, by country of origin, is included in the link that I posted earlier, the National Stats Office, I think if you check you'll see that Malays are fairly high spenders. It's important also to deal in average spend rather than high spend. I've been through this loop so many times of posting numbers I'm not inclined to do it again because I'm not the one who needs to be convinced what the reality is.

 

150k expats versus 130k expats, doesn't change the calculation very much as far as the impact on spending and banks if they all repatriated tomorrow, the banks here are much bigger than most people understand. Also, AVERAGE expat spending is a lot lower than 3k per day, way way lower.

 

 

 

 

Yes, the 3k average spend is probably high. But even the beer sipping old boys probably have to find 1k per day, and those with families or a preferred high end lifestyle much much more. I live alone in Pratamnak. My monthly outgoings range between 65 and 150k. I have 2 hospital bills coming up of 45k each. You can move the figure around, but I think the bottom line is, ex pats do contribute handsomely and well in proportion to their numbers. I wouldn't go along with the proposition that if we all upped sticks and left tomorrow, Thailand's economy would collapse. But in particular, Russian money has flooded into Phuket this year, and probably Pattaya too. The figures on property purchases and rentals are mind boggling. They have almost single handedly revived and boosted the property market there and elsewhere.

Edited by bradiston
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Posted
11 minutes ago, bradiston said:

Yes, the 3k average spend is probably high. But even the beer sipping old boys probably have to find 1k per day, and those with families or a preferred high end lifestyle much much more. I live alone in Pratamnak. My monthly outgoings range between 65 and 150k. I have 2 hospital bills coming up of 45k each. You can move the figure around, but I think the bottom line is, ex pats do contribute handsomely and well in proportion to their numbers. I wouldn't go along with the proposition that if we all upped sticks and left tomorrow, Thailand's economy would collapse. But in particular, Russian money has flooded into Phuket this year, and probably Pattaya too. The figures on property purchases and rentals are mind boggling. They have almost single handedly revived and boosted the property market there and elsewhere.

I agree that "ex pats do contribute handsomely and well in proportion to their numbers", relative to the average or even majority of the population they are big spenders. The problem is, there aren't enough of them to make an economic impact, relative to their numbers, 150k vs 69 million is a very small percentage. 

 

I would hazard a guess that the average expat spend is circa 50k baht per month, big spenders don't impact the median by much. I used to spend at the same levels as you but that was back in 2006 when I lived in Phuket, today I spend 50k per month. 150k a month included rent of 35k, constantly hopping on planes here and there and pretty much spending what I wanted, when I wanted. Today, I own my own home, don't drink any longer and live more like a native, I'm also older and happier to be banking money instead of spending it - expats are aging, not getting younger. 

Posted
30 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Of course they do.

I think it was back in 2012 that TAT took the decision to move the focus of their marketing from the west to the east, in particular India and China.

So you work for the TAT that you so vehemently defend them? LOL

 

Yes, they love the Chinese and Indian tourists, but (as for Chinese arrivals) how well did that work out in 2023?

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