4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

In other words, you've got nothing.

I love it when you say that. It's funny.

 

Especially when you've linked to a source that cannot be cited. Good work.

8 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

I love it when you say that. It's funny.

 

Especially when you've linked to a source that cannot be cited. Good work.

Here's another source for you

 

https://oxfordre.com/economics/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.001.0001/acrefore-9780190625979-e-327;jsessionid=5A588A34D38D6EF63AF6948E56DD7A24#:~:text=The gravity model of international,for more than 50 years.

 

And another

https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/medias/doc/by/chaney/distance.pdf

 

Let me know when you've got some actual evidence to counter what I've offered. I think it's going to be a long wait.

In other words, you've still got nothing.

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Here's another source for you

 

https://oxfordre.com/economics/display/10.1093/acrefore/9780190625979.001.0001/acrefore-9780190625979-e-327;jsessionid=5A588A34D38D6EF63AF6948E56DD7A24#:~:text=The gravity model of international,for more than 50 years.

 

And another

https://www.tse-fr.eu/sites/default/files/medias/doc/by/chaney/distance.pdf

 

Let me know when you've got some actual evidence to counter what I've offered. I think it's going to be a long wait.

In other words, you've still got nothing.

I have to agree. I have nothing against the links you posted.

 

Then again, I've never claimed I have. It was you who decided to go down that road, for some reason. 

 

You seem to be arguing against yourself on this one.

1 minute ago, youreavinalaff said:

I have to agree. I have nothing against the links you posted.

 

Then again, I've never claimed I have. It was you who decided to go down that road, for some reason. 

 

You seem to be arguing against yourself on this one.

So you agree that that gravity is a robust description of how global trade works in relation to distance? And that it augurs badly for UK's attempts to replace what it has lost because of Brexit with trade from more distant nations? Good to know.

 

 

1 minute ago, placeholder said:

So you agree that that gravity is a robust description of how global trade works in relation to distance? And that it augurs badly for UK's attempts to replace what it has lost because of Brexit with trade from more distant nations? Good to know.

 

 

Replace what it's lost because of Brexit?

 

This is my whole point with regards to Brexit being ongoing, not finished, a work in progress.

 

Some people are writing off any future trade with EU or countries within it. Not sure why that is.

Just now, youreavinalaff said:

Replace what it's lost because of Brexit?

 

This is my whole point with regards to Brexit being ongoing, not finished, a work in progress.

 

Some people are writing off any future trade with EU or countries within it. Not sure why that is.

So back to the future and anything can happen no matter how unlikely?

And what would be the incentive for the EU to give the UK for free what it's own members have to pay for?

Or will the UK will get for free what non-members like Norway and Switzerland have to pay for?

Or are you just sharing fan fiction with us?

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

So back to the future and anything can happen no matter how unlikely?

And what would be the incentive for the EU to give the UK for free what it's own members have to pay for?

Or will the UK will get for free what non-members like Norway and Switzerland have to pay for?

Or are you just sharing fan fiction with us?

I don't recall talking about what's free or needs paying for.

 

Trade deals are not one way. Hence the word "deal".

Whatever way you look at it Brexit is/was a failure for the UK. 

How so few could persuade your average man in the street to vote for it beggars belief.

History will show that we joined the club, then did as much as possible to disrupt it.

No fan of Thatcher but she did get us a better deal than we had, only for the Establishment to still keep whining about it until Cameron came up with the Referendum never expecting the Turkeys to vote for Xmas.

So we are where we are, in the mire and it will only get deeper.

Personally it did make me get off my backside and quit the sorry mess and come to LOS, best decision I ever made. 

 

1 minute ago, youreavinalaff said:

I don't recall talking about what's free or needs paying for.

 

Trade deals are not one way. Hence the word "deal".

But the promise of Brexiters was that the UK would find other trading partners that would actually result in a better situation for the UK than what had been the status quo under EU membership. What's more, they contended that payments to the EU were costing more than they were worth. And stil contend the same. Nowhere amongst the prominent Brexit supporters have I ever seen any support at all that the UK would have to offer something to the EU to regain some measure of the privileges it once enjoyed.

3 hours ago, youreavinalaff said:

Unless you are under 25, it won't happen in your lifetime.

I see it’s you who has the forum crystal ball today.

8 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

I don't recall talking about what's free or needs paying for.

 

Trade deals are not one way. Hence the word "deal".

They are not all equal either.

 

Worst Brexit deal of all is the much hoped for UK/US trade deal which Washington has said is not a priority (Washington speak for we are busy with stuff that matters).

 

 

7 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Nowhere amongst the prominent Brexit supporters have I ever seen any support at all that the UK would have to offer something to the EU to regain some measure of the privileges it once enjoyed.

Quite right, too.

 

Just now, youreavinalaff said:

Quite right, too.

 

So you believe that the UK and the EU can come to terms on some sort of deal which would only include concessions from the UK that don't involve cash? Can you share with us what those concessions might be? Or are you going to revert to your go-to of who knows?

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

So you believe that the UK and the EU can come to terms on some sort of deal which would only include concessions from the UK that don't involve cash? Can you share with us what those concessions might be? Or are you going to revert to your go-to of who knows?

Did I say that? No. I mentioned deals. You are the one mentioning cash. Not me. 

1 hour ago, youreavinalaff said:

You mention reasoning. You don't appear to have done any prior to posting this. 

You're right. The example I gave is a logical fallacy. Now apply it to your own suggestion. See any difference? No, me neither.

 

1 hour ago, youreavinalaff said:

 

You are asking the electorate to look into the future. I would have thought that would be impossible.

Again I agree, and again it is no different to the argument that you employ: You contend that Brexit is on-going, therefore the only logical conclusion is that we must look into the future to judge it.

 

Ignoring the rather important fact that the success criteria for Brexit remain (no pun intended) undefined, your argument amounts to 

 

1. Brexit is on-going

2. We shouldn't rejoin the EU unless Brexit is judged a failure

3. We can only judge Brexit a success or failure if we rejoin the EU

 

Therefore,

a) we will never rejoin the EU (because we can't know if Brexit is a failure)

b) it is - and always will be - impossible to judge whether Brexit is a success or failure (because we can't rejoin the EU)

c) Brexit will continue to be on-going ad infinitum

 

(Note: #2 is my insertion. I accept that you did not state or imply this. However, surely it is uncontroversial? Why would we rejoin the EU if Brexit is a success? < although we can't actually confirm whether Brexit is a success as we are not in the EU; all these circular arguments can tie you up in knots if you are not careful!>: 

The conclusions are mine, not yours).

 

No doubt you will say that I am twisting your words. If so, please point out where and how I have done so.

24 minutes ago, RayC said:

You're right. The example I gave is a logical fallacy. Now apply it to your own suggestion. See any difference? No, me neither.

 

Again I agree, and again it is no different to the argument that you employ: You contend that Brexit is on-going, therefore the only logical conclusion is that we must look into the future to judge it.

 

Ignoring the rather important fact that the success criteria for Brexit remain (no pun intended) undefined, your argument amounts to 

 

1. Brexit is on-going

2. We shouldn't rejoin the EU unless Brexit is judged a failure

3. We can only judge Brexit a success or failure if we rejoin the EU

 

Therefore,

a) we will never rejoin the EU (because we can't know if Brexit is a failure)

b) it is - and always will be - impossible to judge whether Brexit is a success or failure (because we can't rejoin the EU)

c) Brexit will continue to be on-going ad infinitum

 

(Note: #2 is my insertion. I accept that you did not state or imply this. However, surely it is uncontroversial? Why would we rejoin the EU if Brexit is a success? < although we can't actually confirm whether Brexit is a success as we are not in the EU; all these circular arguments can tie you up in knots if you are not careful!>: 

The conclusions are mine, not yours).

 

No doubt you will say that I am twisting your words. If so, please point out where and how I have done so.

I totally agree with your arguments. Hence, no one can post here to say "Brexit is a failure". It's simply impossible to say so.

Edited May 21, 20233 yr by youreavinalaff

1 hour ago, youreavinalaff said:

Did I say that? No. I mentioned deals. You are the one mentioning cash. Not me. 

No you didn't mention cash. But you did mention deals. And why would the UK be able to negotiate a better deal than others? In fact, all of your arguments depend on your contention that the future is unknowable therefore there's no way to predict outcomes. Tell that to insurance companies or bookies.  To your way of thinking past knowledge and past experiences are irrelevant to predicting the future. In your world, there is no such thing as probability or likelihood. To follow the logic of your thinking, it makes no sense to save and prepare for the future, for example. After all we can't know what will happen. Maybe a long-lost rich uncle will leave us a fortune. Or maybe we'll get struck by a meteorite. Now to those of us who believe that certain events and outcomes are more likely than others, that the past does have relevance in predicting the future, your class of argument is just a kind of reductive nihilism. In other words, you've quite literally got nothing to offer.

41 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

I totally agree with your arguments. Hence, no one can post here to say "Brexit is a failure". It's simply impossible to say so.

By your criteria, no one can say that any plan is a failure since the future is infinite and we can never know final outcomes.

A post discussing another poster has been removed.

31 minutes ago, placeholder said:

By your criteria, no one can say that any plan is a failure since the future is infinite and we can never know final outcomes.

Not at all. That is not what I said. 

 

There are plans that come to an end. That end in failure. There are also those that end in success. 

 

Some plans take longer than others to realise their success or failure. Whilst ongoing it is possible to evaluate, of course. To suggest things are not going well or that they are going very well but not possible to suggest failure as that would suggest the plan has concluded.

 

 

2 minutes ago, youreavinalaff said:

Not at all. That is not what I said. 

 

There are plans that come to an end. That end in failure. There are also those that end in success. 

 

Some plans take longer than others to realise their success or failure. Whilst ongoing it is possible to evaluate, of course. To suggest things are not going well or that they are going very well but not possible to suggest failure as that would suggest the plan has concluded.

 

 

So it doesn't matter how many years pass, but just so long as Brexit isn't finished, then no conclusions can be drawn? Trendlines don't matter? Timelines don't matter? Predictions don't count?

10 minutes ago, placeholder said:

So it doesn't matter how many years pass, but just so long as Brexit isn't finished, then no conclusions can be drawn? Trendlines don't matter? Timelines don't matter? Predictions don't count?

Don't forget that we've been told time and time again Brexit has finished.

On 5/17/2023 at 2:57 PM, Drumbuie said:

Why was this not applicable to the UK electorate in a decision with far greater consequences?

Nobody thought "Leave" would win.  They thought "Remain" would win by a landslide and leavers would be made to shut up.  I think that's why Boris was allowed off his leash to really have fun with it.

10 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

Nobody thought "Leave" would win.  They thought "Remain" would win by a landslide and leavers would be made to shut up.  I think that's why Boris was allowed off his leash to really have fun with it.

Where do you come up with these falsehoods? In fact, the polls showed a very close race.

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

 

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Where do you come up with these falsehoods? In fact, the polls showed a very close race.

https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

 

What the hell are you talking about? 

 

I mentioned how people thought the result would turn out and you post how the result actually turned out?!!

 

How does what you have posted relate to what I said in any way?

 

Falsehoods?!!  How do you come out with such ridiculous, illogical and irrelevant ideas? 

Just now, BangkokReady said:

What the hell are you talking about? 

 

I mentioned how people thought the result would turn out and you post how the result actually turned out?!!

 

How does what you have posted relate to what I said in any way?

 

Falsehoods?!!  How do you come out with such ridiculous, illogical and irrelevant ideas? 

These were polls taken up to through the day of election. So, no, I didn't post how the result actually turned out. If that were the case, then Remain would have won by 48% to 46%. 

1 hour ago, youreavinalaff said:

Not at all. That is not what I said. 

 

There are plans that come to an end. That end in failure. There are also those that end in success. 

 

Some plans take longer than others to realise their success or failure. Whilst ongoing it is possible to evaluate, of course. To suggest things are not going well or that they are going very well but not possible to suggest failure as that would suggest the plan has concluded.

 

 

And then there’s the lunacy of removing the UK from the worlds largest developed integrated  free trade market without any plan at all:

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-no-plan-b2326008.html#

11 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Given that the polls showed nothing of the sort, that's quite an extravagant claim that whoever "They" are would make such a prediction in the face of overwhelmingly contrary evidence.

You shared a poll that was taken on the day of the referendum, so it really doesn't support what you are saying at all.

12 minutes ago, BangkokReady said:

You shared a poll that was taken on the day of the referendum, so it really doesn't support what you are saying at all.

First off, you made a claim that "They thought remain would win by a landslide..". To date, you have offered no evidence to back up your assertion.

Time for you to get acquainted with the rule from the landing page of the World News Forum

" Any alleged factual claims must be supported by a valid link to an approved credible source."

 

Second, you originally claimed that I was showing election results. That was false. I was showing opinion poll results.

 

Had you gone to the linked page you would have seen a lot more data about what the polls showed. But to spare you that effort, here's this:

 

Days Before the Brexit Vote, Polls Show British Voters Are Sharply Divided on Staying in the EU

Polls show the 'remain' and 'leave' campaigns in dead heat.

With only three days left until British voters decide whether the United Kingdom will stay in or leave the European Union, polls show that the campaigns on the two sides of the issue are neck-and-neck.

Although earlier polls had forecast that a majority would vote in the June 23 referendum to leave the EU -- known as “Brexit” – a series of new polls paint a different picture.

https://abcnews.go.com/International/days-brexit-vote-polls-show-british-voters-sharply/story?id=39988473

 

3 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Days Before the Brexit Vote

This is only days before.  The campaign went on for months.