The election is over, a new round of "war" begins

[webfact]

Picture: Siam Rath

 

OPINION/ANALYSIS

 

After the polls have closed, the victories of two major opposition parties mark a new chapter in Thai politics as the country enters the phase of forming a new government, reported Siam Rath .

 

However, the Thai political scene is abuzz with several pressing questions:

 

Will the Forward Party manage to establish the government successfully? Will Pita Limcharoenrat become the Prime Minister? Could the Forward Party face dissolution or will Pita face a dismissal?

 

Finally, will we see a fallen orange-shirt Prime Minister or an outsider Prime Minister?

 

According to the election results, despite the Forward Party securing the highest number of seats - 152 in total - surpassing the expectations by overthrowing the long-time champion, the Pheu Thai Party, which has transformed from Thai Rak Thai Party and People's Power Party, the political chessboard has changed dramatically. Pheu Thai now has to reverse roles from being the core party to a variable factor...

 

This has led to the movements of Pita Limcharoenrat, vying for leadership by fast-tracking his moves. Shortly after the unofficial results came out at noon on May 14, 2023, Pita announced an alliance with five political parties - the Forward Party, Pheu Thai Party, Thai Nation Party, Free Thai Party, and Dharma Party - to form a new government. The coalition claimed to have the majority with 310 seats, blocking the possibility of a minority government from the opposition.

 

However, the figure of 310 seats, which later included the Social Power Party with 1 seat and Pheu Thai Power Party with 2 seats, making it 313 seats, is not a safe number yet!

 

Although it is more than half of the 500-seat House of Representatives, which is 250 seats, the Senate's power to participate in the Prime Minister's selection process makes the 250 senators' votes a crucial "rock barrier" that requires additional support to reach 376.

 

While the Forward Party is filled with conditions that "lock themselves" by rejecting the joining of previous ruling political parties, also refraining from power-hungry parties. The allocation of ministerial and departmental quotas to coalition parties has also been scrutinized. It is suspected that the Forward Party has secured all A-grade ministries, including the Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Transport, and Ministry of Public Health.

 

The risks associated with walking on the tightrope of public expectations amidst a lack of trust are understandable. This lack of trust has been evident since the time the Forward Party and Pheu Thai Party worked together as the opposition in the past term.

 

Consequently, it is not only the numerous conditions that seem to be self-imposed traps, but psychological warfare is also unfolding. The "Phitha Fever" movement pressures the previous government coalition parties and senators to vote in favor of "Phitha" as Prime Minister, resulting in pushback.

 

This pushback includes the likes of "Noonah" Kanjana Silpa-acha, an advisor to the Thai Nation Development Party, who felt compelled to assert herself: "True democracy is about listening to the majority while respecting differing voices… You are using your prowess in creating social media trends to pressure us… Your version of democracy is actual dictatorship..."

 

And then there's Suchat Chomklin, a leader of the Thai National United Party, who compares the behavior of the Go Forward party to that of a child crying for candy, merely seeking appeasement.

 

Much of the friction arises from the Prime Minister selection process having no set deadline. In addition, we still await the Election Commission's certification of 95% of MPs, which involves the standing of "Phitha" who has been accused of holding media shares, with no resolution in sight. Therefore, if the game isn't hastily concluded, the 376-vote barrier and the 152 votes from the Go Forward party could be lost.

 

Amid close scrutiny of the Pheu Thai party's stance, their declaration to follow the traditional political tide and an announcement of "not setting up a competitive government" indicate that if the Go Forward party fails to establish a government or if a political accident occurs, targeting "Phitha", the Pheu Thai party would have a legitimate opportunity to assume leadership.

 

If one pays attention to those on the periphery, who are the real game changers, like "Big Brother Tony" Thaksin Shinawatra, even though he affirmed that the Pheu Thai party has a high sportsman spirit and will give the top-ranked party the chance to establish a government, he will still vote in favor, even if not invited to join the government.

 

However, "Big Brother Tony" still maintains that if an unforeseen event occurs where "Phitha" is disqualified due to the media shareholding case, the Go Forward party would not be able to propose a new Prime Minister, leaving the opportunity to the Pheu Thai party.

 

"I hope it doesn't happen, but if it does, naturally, the second party will take over. That's the nature of democracy."

 

It seems that the more time passes, the more likely it becomes that the Pheu Thai party, although not the first choice, might end up as the de facto leader.

 

Especially notable is the emphatic declaration by "Big Brother Tony" that he will return home, posing the question, "is there a problem?"

 

It's not surprising then that there remains a palpable tension of intense political struggle, ominously looming over the situation until you can sense the onset of this new round of "war"!

 

-- © Copyright  ASEAN NOW 2023-05-20

 

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[Enoon]

 

"Speak of the devil and he will appear"

 

How long before "war" becomes war?

 

 

Edited May 19, 2023 by Enoon

[OneMoreFarang]

The election is over, a new round of "war" begins

 

What a stupid headline! It seems some people want to declare this a war and that a war and something else a war. Stupid!

 

There are lots of things which can happen in politics. That is nothing unusual. There is no war! 

[Thailand]

What are the odds on the current incumbents still being there this time next year?

[MrMojoRisin]

2 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

The election is over, a new round of "war" begins

 

What a stupid headline! It seems some people want to declare this a war and that a war and something else a war. Stupid!

 

There are lots of things which can happen in politics. That is nothing unusual. There is no war! 

It is a war.

You are losing.

So sad.

????

[h90]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

The election is over, a new round of "war" begins

 

What a stupid headline! It seems some people want to declare this a war and that a war and something else a war. Stupid!

 

There are lots of things which can happen in politics. That is nothing unusual. There is no war! 

There is a lust for war everywhere...it is a 4th turning

[h90]

1 hour ago, Thailand said:

What are the odds on the current incumbents still being there this time next year?

Little....But it could be a Shinawatra or an independent.

[Enzian]

Would someone just wake me up when this is all over? I have a personal policy of not wasting time on news items about what "might" happen or "may" happen, and the past few days have been almost nothing but that. It's been an education, but I'm not a citizen. I should be interested only if one of the parties proposes to reform and rationalize Immigration.

[Eric Loh]

A propaganda piece written by Siam Rath owned by politician in the Junta coalition government. 

[bannork]

6 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

A propaganda piece written by Siam Rath owned by politician in the Junta coalition government. 

Nevertheless, Pita is MF's sole PM candidate. If he's banned, the baton for PM will pass to PT. They could bring in Bhumjai Thai, perhaps offering Anuthin the premiership if he helps bring Thaksin home, or even bring in Pravit's crew for the same reason.

But the  numbers for a PT government would be dodgy if MF went into the Opposition.

PT can't bring in The Democrats or Prayuth's party, plus Sudarat's party and Seri's would join MF in the Opposition.

In addition this would infuriate the public who voted for MF and hopefully hand a further dribbling to PT at the next election.

For Thailand's sake, I hope Pita can be PM 

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, bannork said:

Nevertheless, Pita is MF's sole PM candidate. If he's banned, the baton for PM will pass to PT. They could bring in Bhumjai Thai, perhaps offering Anuthin the premiership if he helps bring Thaksin home, or even bring in Pravit's crew for the same reason.

But the  numbers for a PT government would be dodgy if MF went into the Opposition.

PT can't bring in The Democrats or Prayuth's party, plus Sudarat's party and Seri's would join MF in the Opposition.

In addition this would infuriate the public who voted for MF and hopefully hand a further dribbling to PT at the next election.

For Thailand's sake, I hope Pita can be PM 

Perhaps MFP didn’t expect that they will win spectacularly or their inexperience not having push another candidate or even perhaps they don’t have leaders in their rank that have star power. Meanwhile PTP push 3 potential PM candidates. Wily party for sure. 
 

I’m my opinion, the case against Pita is very weak and I doubt EC will accept the case. Even if EC accept the case and the case is refer to the Constitution Court for judgement, it will take while for the case to be adjudicated. EC has only 60 days time frame to certify the election. The verdict will not affect the party. 
 

I doubt PTP will invite BJT if the PM goes to PTP. (Likely Sretha). Thaksin has not forgiven Newin’s  betrayal. 
 

I agree with you that PTP will be taking stock of their poor performance and public sentiments and would be rather reckless to have a party from the pro military coalition. 
 

PTP will stick with their MFP coalition and it is impossible that any military coalition will have the House majority. IMO Prayut and Prawit are done with politics. 

 

Edited May 20, 2023 by Eric Loh
Wrong word

[bristolgeoff]

As a farang  we have no say anyway,but look from the sidelines.Will be interesting to see what will happen

[ThailandRyan]

For those of us who have been here for many elections and a few coups, It will be interesting next week when things start to shake out even more with the EC and coalition formations solidifying.  As always I always seem to need to be in Bangkok during these times if potential military involvement as needing to get to the doctors or visit the US Embassy, and of course our condo just happens to be near ground zero......

[Felton Jarvis]

It becomes a “war” once the subject of “Article 112” is broached. As it stands the subject can’t even be discussed in an honest way.

[hotchilli]

7 hours ago, Enoon said:

 

"Speak of the devil and he will appear"

 

How long before "war" becomes war?

 

 

Depends on the senate vote.

[candide]

3 hours ago, Eric Loh said:

Perhaps MFP didn’t expect that they will win spectacularly or their inexperience not having push another candidate or even perhaps they don’t have leaders in their rank that have star power. Meanwhile PTP push 3 potential PM candidates. Wily party for sure. 
 

I’m my opinion, the case against Pita is very weak and I doubt EC will accept the case. Even if EC accept the case and the case is refer to the Constitution Court for judgement, it will take while for the case to be adjudicated. EC has only 60 days time frame to certify the election. The verdict will not affect the party. 
 

I doubt PTP will invite BJT if the PM goes to PTP. (Likely Sretha). Thaksin has not forgiven Newin’s  betrayal. 
 

I agree with you that PTP will be taking stock of their poor performance and public sentiments and would be rather reckless to have a party from the pro military coalition. 
 

PTP will stick with their MFP coalition and it is impossible that any military coalition will have the House majority. IMO Prayut and Prawit are done with politics. 

 

I think the EC decision in the case against Pita will be political. If It's political, the CC can decide quickly about it

One problem about MF is that, unlike PT, they have no communications channel with the stratospheric level. It's also likely that they not perceived positively there.

[Eric Loh]

1 hour ago, candide said:

I think the EC decision in the case against Pita will be political. If It's political, the CC can decide quickly about it

One problem about MF is that, unlike PT, they have no communications channel with the stratospheric level. It's also likely that they not perceived positively there.

The separation of power in Thailand is rather grey. In the case of similar context of having shares in a media company, Thanathorn was disqualified as MP by the CC in about 9 months. By then, Thanathorn was already part of the House opposition. The party survive. About 3 months later, his loan to party case was found guilty and the party was dissolved. Party MPs formed new party (MFP) while some joined other existing political parties. 
 

So assuming the worst case, Pita will be disqualify but the party will remain and will still be the majority with the coalition in the House. 

 

 

[marin]

1 hour ago, candide said:

One problem about MF is that, unlike PT, they have no communications channel with the stratospheric level.

How did they sweep Bangkok and win in almost every province in Thailand without that? Why are Taksin and Phua Thai saying they need to modernize their communications to match MF? Just sayin.

[candide]

10 minutes ago, marin said:

How did they sweep Bangkok and win in almost every province in Thailand without that? Why are Taksin and Phua Thai saying they need to modernize their communications to match MF? Just sayin.

More explicitly: by stratospheric level, I mean something we cannot freely talk about.

[mikebell]

On 5/20/2023 at 4:50 AM, webfact said:

or an outsider Prime Minister?

I am available; would also consider the Chief of police job.

[JemJem]

I know I probably won't be popular saying this, but, it will be a bit sad for me to see Khun Prayut go. I feel that he has improved himself quite a bit over the years. Yes, I know how he came to power. But, come on, still, I feel he has always had good intentions. 

 

But anyway, it is time for Prayut  to go. This Pita guy seems good. A breath of fresh air for Thai politics. But, time will tell. 

 

And, I shall say nothing about the Shinawatra clan. Not a big fan of them at all ????

[Thingamabob]

The result of an election should determine which party will form the next government. But not in Thailand....

[neeray]

9 hours ago, JemJem said:

I know I probably won't be popular saying this, but, it will be a bit sad for me to see Khun Prayut go. I feel that he has improved himself quite a bit over the years. Yes, I know how he came to power. But, come on, still, I feel he has always had good intentions. 

 

But anyway, it is time for Prayut  to go. This Pita guy seems good. A breath of fresh air for Thai politics. But, time will tell. 

 

And, I shall say nothing about the Shinawatra clan. Not a big fan of them at all ????

"I feel that he has improved himself" ............ He most certainly has. But improving his bank balance in offshore accounts didn't improve life for the average Thai.