Government must prepare for the effects of the El Nino climate phenomenon, expert says

[webfact]

 

With increasing awareness among the voting public of the environmental challenges faced in this part of the world, it is imperative that the new government draws up a Memorandum of Understanding with all concerned agencies to take urgent action in fighting the worse impacts of global warming and the upcoming El Nino, says Assistant Professor Thon Thamrong-Nawasawat of the Faculty of Fisheries, Kasetsart University. 

 

The last two months have clearly shown that this year is already hotter than 2022 and this is likely to continue. And scientists are warning that the return of the El Nino climate phenomenon later this year will cause global temperatures to rise and that it is very likely that the next big El Nino will take the world’s warming above the much-touted 1.5C over pre-industrial levels.

 

Asst. Prof. Thon, a well-known expert in marine ecology, points out that in addition to the effects of global warming, the return of  El Nino next year will cause coral bleaching, damaged seagrasses, marine heat waves, interrupted fish migration, rising sea levels, and worsening wildfires due to longer periods of hot and dry conditions.

 

He suggested that the new government takes serious action on all sides focusing on CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage), better measures to preserve the ecology and improve the operations to gain international recognition of Thailand’s nature-based carbon credits. For the longer term, the government should consider bills that support the development of CCS technology.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/government-must-prepare-for-the-effects-of-the-el-nino-climate-phenomenon-expert-says/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2023-05-26

 

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[foreverlomsak]

Assume this to be a newly discovered phenomenon, with the government only being told now about it's potential effects

[ikke1959]

First start to solve the air pollution in Thailand. Replace old vehicles, 24/7/365 black smoke cars, and oldtimers which almost fall apart , take them of the roads, overloaded old trucks, use of plastic, simple things to do and with some support of the Government everybody can contribute.. And of course promote solar energy for every household. Thailand did not do much in the past decades for climate change.. as we can see of the use of motorbikes for a few meters, instead of walking..The rising temperatures we can't handle but we can make our daily life better

[ozimoron]

15 minutes ago, foreverlomsak said:

Assume this to be a newly discovered phenomenon, with the government only being told now about it's potential effects

No, it bears repeating ove rand over again until the slow learners understand that climate change is real.

[h90]

16 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

First start to solve the air pollution in Thailand. Replace old vehicles, 24/7/365 black smoke cars, and oldtimers which almost fall apart , take them of the roads, overloaded old trucks, use of plastic, simple things to do and with some support of the Government everybody can contribute.. And of course promote solar energy for every household. Thailand did not do much in the past decades for climate change.. as we can see of the use of motorbikes for a few meters, instead of walking..The rising temperatures we can't handle but we can make our daily life better

Well the old cars die soon on themself. So you don't need to make the poor people even poorer. They don't need to promote solar energy, they only need to remove the bureaucracy.....just let the people do it without the huge costs of doing it alright with regulations that have no technical reason.
Easiest would be to put solar panels on large government buildings. Many of these are huge, it pays for itself and some electric is directly used there on the AC when it is produced. If there is a parking place, roof it and put electric charger for cars only during day. If doing smart solar panels in Thailand make profit after 3-4 years.

That is not enough but that is a very low hanging fruit.

[mikeymike100]

1 hour ago, ozimoron said:

No, it bears repeating ove rand over again until the slow learners understand that climate change is real.

Very few folks believe Climate Change is NOT real, is has been changing for a very long time, billions of years!

The question is, what is causing the climate to change, this is where the conversation gets muddied? And what if anything can be done?

[ozimoron]

8 minutes ago, mikeymike100 said:

Very few folks believe Climate Change is NOT real, is has been changing for a very long time, billions of years!

The question is, what is causing the climate to change, this is where the conversation gets muddied? And what if anything can be done?

1. You and everybody else knows that when we say climate change we are referring to man induced aka anthropomorphic climate change. It has long been established beyond any credible doubt that natural climate change is playing NO part in global warming. We there no man made climate clange going on the earth would be in a cooling phase. Basic science.

 

2. Carbon dioxide in the air is what's causing climate change. 19th century physics established the link between carbon dioxide levels and atmospheric temperatures. Again, this is not credibly contested.

 

3. What can be done is to stop burning fossil fuels. That is the main component. Removal of carbon sinks like forests is another, albeit smaller cause of global warming.

[happysoul]

Waste management. As many countries, the waste is burned but equip burners with filters, stop burning everything open air in a pit. Also, educate people about plastic management and stop the "put the veggies in a plastic bag that I put in another plastic bag" at markets.

 

Here up North we must now buy special garbage bags or else not collected. People go trash the forests around because they don't want to pay for those bags. And the "special" bags, anyway, go to a pit where sometimes unluckily it burns. So no care at all about ecology here even with some marketing slogan on the garbage bags.  

[khunPer]

And I thought el Nino and la Nina had been here for ages, long before the industrial era...

 

ENSO (El Niño–Southern Oscillation) conditions have occurred at two- to seven-year intervals for at least the past 300 years, but most of them have been weak. Evidence is also strong for El Niño events during the early Holocene epoch 10,000 years ago. (Source: Wikipedia)

[cncltd1973]

3 hours ago, ikke1959 said:

First start to solve the air pollution in Thailand. Replace old vehicles, 24/7/365 black smoke cars, and oldtimers which almost fall apart , take them of the roads, overloaded old trucks, use of plastic, simple things to do and with some support of the Government everybody can contribute.. And of course promote solar energy for every household. Thailand did not do much in the past decades for climate change.. as we can see of the use of motorbikes for a few meters, instead of walking..The rising temperatures we can't handle but we can make our daily life better

don't forget burning - that accounts for 50%. industry accounts for 30%. vehicles and humans make the list at a minority, but every little bit helps

[koolkarl]

Ban all fossil fuels.  Use horse and buggy.

Jail anyone starting fires on their land.

[KhunLA]

So once again ... a big nothing ... ????????????

 

From OP:

... "And scientists are warning that the return of the El Nino climate phenomenon later this year will cause global temperatures to rise and that it is very likely that the next big El Nino will take the world’s warming above the much-touted 1.5C over ... pre-industrial levels."

 

Are we not already at 1°C over pre-industrial levels ?

 

From NOAA:

"Given the tremendous size and heat capacity of the global oceans, it takes a massive amount of heat energy to raise Earth’s average yearly surface temperature even a small amount. The roughly 2-degree Fahrenheit (1 degrees Celsius) increase in global average surface temperature that has occurred since the pre-industrial era (1880-1900) might seem small, but it means a significant increase in accumulated heat."

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature#:~:text=The 2022 surface temperature was,period (1880-1900).

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, webfact said:

With increasing awareness among the voting public of the environmental challenges faced in this part of the world, it is imperative that the new government draws up a Memorandum of Understanding with all concerned agencies to take urgent action in fighting the worse impacts of global warming and the upcoming El Nino, says Assistant Professor Thon Thamrong-Nawasawat of the Faculty of Fisheries, Kasetsart University

Judging by the affects of the latest strong winds and damage encountered Thailand has shown as usual it's not prepared for anything.

It's a reactionary country not a proactive one.

[Pink Mist]

A reported off-topic post and replies have been removed 

[dinsdale]

6 hours ago, webfact said:

The last two months have clearly shown that this year is already hotter than 2022 and this is likely to continue.

What! The wet season started mid May. Or was it last Monday? Or is it this week? Or is it ...................................................................................................................................?

Please wait for the next definitive 'update/projection/guess' from the 

[VincentRJ]

4 hours ago, ozimoron said:

It has long been established beyond any credible doubt that natural climate change is playing NO part in global warming. Were there no man made climate clange going on the earth would be in a cooling phase. Basic science.

 

If this is true, then man-made global warming must be beneficial. Do you know that, globally, far more people die from cold weather than hot weather?

 

"Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries."
 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm

[ukrules]

18 minutes ago, VincentRJ said:

If this is true, then man-made global warming must be beneficial. Do you know that, globally, far more people die from cold weather than hot weather?

 

"Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries."
 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm

Indeed, when I was in school the doomsayers were warning about a mini ice age that's going to come in the next 10 years or so, it will freeze everything, make everyones lives untolerable and last for a hundred years.

 

That's what they taught me as a child. They absolutely lied and as we all know the climate is never unchanging - I am skeptical about what 'they' say because I've been lied to all my life, even my teachers at school were getting in on it.

 

They probably didn't know any better as they were merely simple teachers reading from a script written by the prognosticating professors at the universities.

 

[thaipo7]

Bring the Tuk Tuk back to BKK.  Like we can prevent Climate Change.  Just a way for more government control and making all poorer except this pushing this.

[ozimoron]

7 hours ago, VincentRJ said:

If this is true, then man-made global warming must be beneficial. Do you know that, globally, far more people die from cold weather than hot weather?

 

"Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries."
 

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm

What about famine, drought, migration, etc which are caused by global warming? People die in cold weather from hypothermia, largely a product of poverty. Global warming contributes to poverty. Stronger storms, floods , droughts and fires do untold damage and engender increased poverty. Your analysis is very shallow. I'd say deliberately so.

[mikebell]

22 hours ago, webfact said:

Asst. Prof. Thon, a well-known expert

If he is so well-known, why is he only an assistant?  Daily we hear these experts stepping up to the mike to state the bleedin' obvious!  The cure is there for all to see but will never happen in Thailand without Education and Enforcement.

Besides making it hotter, air pollution kills; speed kills.  Both are evident every minute yet both are ignored by authorities.

[VincentRJ]

18 hours ago, ozimoron said:

What about famine, drought, migration, etc which are caused by global warming? People die in cold weather from hypothermia, largely a product of poverty. Global warming contributes to poverty. Stronger storms, floods , droughts and fires do untold damage and engender increased poverty. Your analysis is very shallow. I'd say deliberately so.

If you check the actual data, instead of news stories written to create alarm, you'll find that the number of deaths, world-wide, from floods, droughts, storms, and temperature extremes, have dropped significantly since the 1920s, and those figures in the attached graph do not take into account the dramatic population increase since the 1920s.

 

"This decline is even more impressive when we consider the rate of population growth over this period. When we correct for population – showing this data in terms of death rates (measured per 100,000 people) – we see an even greater decline over the past century." 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters#natural-disasters-kill-tens-of-thousands-each-year

 

There are two major issues to consider here. 
(1) The reporting of an increase in extreme weather events in recent decades is related to an increase in the improvement of recording such events, due to modern technology, when anyone with a cellphone can immediately share news of a storm or flood from halfway around the world. Therefore, an increase in registered disasters does not necessarilly equate to more disasters in reality. 
(2) The same improvement in technology also reduces the number of deaths from extreme weather events, because of better reporting and predictions of extreme weather events, allowing people to get out of the way before the storm or flood arrives.

 

 

[Bkk Brian]

31 minutes ago, VincentRJ said:

If you check the actual data, instead of news stories written to create alarm, you'll find that the number of deaths, world-wide, from floods, droughts, storms, and temperature extremes, have dropped significantly since the 1920s, and those figures in the attached graph do not take into account the dramatic population increase since the 1920s.

 

"This decline is even more impressive when we consider the rate of population growth over this period. When we correct for population – showing this data in terms of death rates (measured per 100,000 people) – we see an even greater decline over the past century." 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters#natural-disasters-kill-tens-of-thousands-each-year

 

There are two major issues to consider here. 
(1) The reporting of an increase in extreme weather events in recent decades is related to an increase in the improvement of recording such events, due to modern technology, when anyone with a cellphone can immediately share news of a storm or flood from halfway around the world. Therefore, an increase in registered disasters does not necessarilly equate to more disasters in reality. 
(2) The same improvement in technology also reduces the number of deaths from extreme weather events, because of better reporting and predictions of extreme weather events, allowing people to get out of the way before the storm or flood arrives.

 

 

Its correct, deaths have been decreasing.

 

"Quite simply, we are better than ever before at saving lives,” “More lives are being saved thanks to early warning systems"

 

But the economic costs are increasing and the extreme weather events are also increasing. Famine and extreme hunger has more than doubled in the 10 most climate hotspots.

 

We can't reply on early warnings forever. 

 

Weather-related disasters increase over past 50 years, causing more damage but fewer deaths

The number of disasters has increased by a factor of five over the 50-year period, driven by climate change, more extreme weather and improved reporting. But, thanks to improved early warnings and disaster management, the number of deaths decreased almost three-fold.

Economic losses have increased sevenfold

https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/weather-related-disasters-increase-over-past-50-years-causing-more-damage-fewer

 

Extreme hunger has more than doubled in 10 of the world’s worst climate hotspots over past six years

Climate-fueled hunger is a stark demonstration of global inequality. Countries that are least responsible for the climate crisis are suffering most from its impact and are also the least resourced to cope with it. Collectively responsible for just 0.13 per cent of global carbon emissions, the 10 climate hotspots sit in the bottom third of countries least ready for climate change.

https://www.oxfamamerica.org/press/extreme-hunger-has-more-than-doubled-in-10-of-the-worlds-worst-climate-hotspots-over-past-six-years/

 

 

 

 

 

[ozimoron]

2 hours ago, VincentRJ said:

If you check the actual data, instead of news stories written to create alarm, you'll find that the number of deaths, world-wide, from floods, droughts, storms, and temperature extremes, have dropped significantly since the 1920s, and those figures in the attached graph do not take into account the dramatic population increase since the 1920s.

 

"This decline is even more impressive when we consider the rate of population growth over this period. When we correct for population – showing this data in terms of death rates (measured per 100,000 people) – we see an even greater decline over the past century." 

 

https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters#natural-disasters-kill-tens-of-thousands-each-year

 

There are two major issues to consider here. 
(1) The reporting of an increase in extreme weather events in recent decades is related to an increase in the improvement of recording such events, due to modern technology, when anyone with a cellphone can immediately share news of a storm or flood from halfway around the world. Therefore, an increase in registered disasters does not necessarilly equate to more disasters in reality. 
(2) The same improvement in technology also reduces the number of deaths from extreme weather events, because of better reporting and predictions of extreme weather events, allowing people to get out of the way before the storm or flood arrives.

 

 

The fact that modern tech has reduced the number of deaths due to better warning systems is really irrelevant to the question of whether climate change is occurring or not.

 

The WMO, meanwhile, warned that while deaths have plunged, the economic losses incurred in weather-related disasters have soared.

The agency previously recorded economic losses had increased sevenfold from 1970 to 2019, rising from $49m per day during the first decade to $383m per day in the final one.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/22/climate-change-causes-2m-deaths-in-50-years-poor-suffer-most-un

[bignok]

On 5/27/2023 at 10:19 AM, ozimoron said:

No, it bears repeating ove rand over again until the slow learners understand that climate change is real.

Yes for billions of years.

[bignok]

3 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The fact that modern tech has reduced the number of deaths due to better warning systems is really irrelevant to the question of whether climate change is occurring or not.

 

The WMO, meanwhile, warned that while deaths have plunged, the economic losses incurred in weather-related disasters have soared.

The agency previously recorded economic losses had increased sevenfold from 1970 to 2019, rising from $49m per day during the first decade to $383m per day in the final one.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/22/climate-change-causes-2m-deaths-in-50-years-poor-suffer-most-un

Does that include inflation? In 1970 $10 was a lot of money. Nothing now.

 

 

[bignok]

5 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The fact that modern tech has reduced the number of deaths due to better warning systems is really irrelevant to the question of whether climate change is occurring or not.

 

The WMO, meanwhile, warned that while deaths have plunged, the economic losses incurred in weather-related disasters have soared.

The agency previously recorded economic losses had increased sevenfold from 1970 to 2019, rising from $49m per day during the first decade to $383m per day in the final one.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/22/climate-change-causes-2m-deaths-in-50-years-poor-suffer-most-un

In a 2021 report covering disaster-linked deaths and losses from 1970 to 2019, the agency had pointed out that at the beginning of the period, the world saw more than 50,000 such deaths each year. By the 2010s, the disaster death toll had dropped to below 20,000 annually.

 

Deaths dropped by 60% 555

[bignok]

8 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

The fact that modern tech has reduced the number of deaths due to better warning systems is really irrelevant to the question of whether climate change is occurring or not.

 

The WMO, meanwhile, warned that while deaths have plunged, the economic losses incurred in weather-related disasters have soared.

The agency previously recorded economic losses had increased sevenfold from 1970 to 2019, rising from $49m per day during the first decade to $383m per day in the final one.

 

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/22/climate-change-causes-2m-deaths-in-50-years-poor-suffer-most-un

https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1970?amount=1

 

After inflation about the same.

 

Funny how you left out that bit.

[ozimoron]

10 minutes ago, bignok said:

In a 2021 report covering disaster-linked deaths and losses from 1970 to 2019, the agency had pointed out that at the beginning of the period, the world saw more than 50,000 such deaths each year. By the 2010s, the disaster death toll had dropped to below 20,000 annually.

 

Deaths dropped by 60% 555

Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01058-x

[bignok]

4 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent. Burdens varied geographically but were of the order of dozens to hundreds of deaths per year in many locations. Our findings support the urgent need for more ambitious mitigation and adaptation strategies to minimize the public health impacts of climate change.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01058-x

Cold kills people 9:1 as compared tp heat.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/interactive/2023/hot-cold-extreme-temperature-deaths/

 

In most places, the temperature is more often too cold than too hot, which helps explain why more than 90 percent of temperature-related deaths were from cold, according to the Lancet study. On every continent, cold deaths surpassed heat deaths.

 

[ozimoron]

14 minutes ago, bignok said:

https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1970?amount=1

 

After inflation about the same.

 

Funny how you left out that bit.

Climate crisis is ‘battering our economy’ and driving inflation, new book says

 

Climatenomics lays out how ‘supply chain disruptions’ has become a euphemism for the effects of climate change

 

Assessing the role of climate change on economies is one thing but, for now, most models merely assess the cost of climate-related disasters, not their underlying effect on inflation.

According to Keefe, citing National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Noaa) figures, climate-related weather disasters cost the US economy more than $145bn in 2021 – a nearly 50% increase from last year. Over the last five years, they have cost $750bn. Since 1980 323 weather and climate disasters have cost $1bn or more, the total cost of these events exceeds $2.195tn.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/11/climate-crisis-inflation-economy-climatenomics-book