Residential market slows, new stimulus packages awaited

[webfact]

 

Despite slowing inflation, the residential market in the first few months of 2023 has been sluggish, the real estate sector reports. Overall, the housing demand in Thailand has dropped and consumer purchasing power remains weak, although the sector is hoping to benefit from new government policies.

 

Leading property website DDProperty says higher interest rates are the main barrier for home buyers, resulting in a 2% decline in housing demand in the second quarter of this year.

 

The latest DDProperty Outlook Report found that property prices remained stagnant, and the residential price index decreased across all properties. The government’s new economic stimulus plan is anticipated to provide clarity and serve as a significant aid to economic recovery, along with stimulating consumer spending. These factors are expected to contribute to the real estate market’s recovery in the second half of this year.

 

Full story: https://www.thaipbsworld.com/residential-market-slows-new-stimulus-packages-awaited/

 

-- © Copyright Thai PBS 2023-05-29

 

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[stoner]

there was an article the other day saying otherwise. strange. 

[KhunLA]

Guess it depends where & what is being sold, and price point.

 

Locally, we've been here almost 2 yrs, and last year, one of the local gals, bought 1 plot of land and build 8 houser, and almost all/7 sold already @ 2.5 M ish price tag.  

 

She now has bought up most of immediate area land available, and building 10 more.  All 3 area were empty 18 months ago.

 

No worries for us, as what she hasn't bought, isn't available.

 

Next door lot, owner is MIA, as we'd like to buy.

 

Nest to his, already planted and not selling, and behind us, is all pineapples, just replanted, and also not available.

 

There are 4 other lots in the area, cleared & plotted for sale.

 

Edited May 29, 2023 by KhunLA

[bamnutsak]

8 minutes ago, stoner said:

there was an article the other day saying otherwise. strange. 

 

Pump and dump.

 

followed by

 

Dump and pump.

 

 

[bkk6060]

There are pockets of areas in demand, but overall I have not seen a major rush in buying.

I am in Hua Hin and heard the Russians and Chinese are here buying up everything raising prices.  Just the opposite from my observations, plenty of places for sale or rent not more expensive then 4 years ago new projects offering big discounts and incentives. 

Edited May 29, 2023 by bkk6060

[Will B Good]

Strange....last article I read the market was booming and every China man (person) and his/her dog were buying up every last condo, villa and house available.......how quickly things change!

[KhunLA]

48 minutes ago, bkk6060 said:

There are pockets of areas in demand, but overall I have not seen a major rush in buying.

I am in Hua Hin and heard the Russians and Chinese are here buying up everything raising prices.  Just the opposite from my observations, plenty of places for sale or rent not more expensive then 4 years ago new projects offering big discounts and incentives. 

Daughter got a big discount on her condo at Krung Thep.  Project was slated for completion pre-covid, and her unit won't be ready till August.

 

Smaller, lower floor units (28 & 30m²) listed for 4.5M - 6.5M, and she picked up 40m² unit / 16th floor, for 5.39M ????  Still silly priced in my world, but I'm not HiSo ????

 

She was actually all set to buy a new car, and glad she listens to my investing advice ... "don't borrow money for krap that depreciates" ????

 

 

Edited May 29, 2023 by KhunLA

[hotchilli]

5 hours ago, stoner said:

there was an article the other day saying otherwise. strange. 

I read it was boom time for condo's the other day too?

[spidermike007]

The real estate market here is soft, except for land in some areas. Anything to the contrary is industry sponsored PR nonsense, such as the article about Phuket we saw a few days ago. It will likely only get softer in the short term, with rising interest rates. 

[Screaming]

Condominiums are a terrible investment in Thailand. Whereas in many Western countries the price of condos will appreciate, here in Thailand the prices keep depreciating because of the lack of maintenance and improvements. Many Thai condos turn into slums after twenty years.

[whiteman]

 and glad she listens to my investing advice ... "don't borrow money for krap that depreciates" ????

 

 

Appartments also depreciate   I hope she will live in it maybe better that way

That also includes apartments.

 

 

 

 

 

[RichardColeman]

1 hour ago, hotchilli said:

I read it was boom time for condo's the other day too?

Certainly not boom for all the condos that have been bought by the chinese tourists that are still unbuilt here

[mikebell]

23 hours ago, Will B Good said:

Strange....last article I read the market was booming and every China man (person) and his/her dog were buying up every last condo, villa and house available.......how quickly things change!

How quickly lies are published to talk up the market.

[Celsius]

18 hours ago, whiteman said:

 and glad she listens to my investing advice ... "don't borrow money for krap that depreciates" ????

 

 

Appartments also depreciate   I hope she will live in it maybe better that way

That also includes apartments.

 

 

 

 

 

 

In Thailand condos depreciate faster than cars short term. This is a fact and not sarcasm.

[sidneybear]

Marketing campaigns will always be optimistic, but rising interest rates reduces the amount of money people can borrow, which in turn reduces prices. 

[newnative]

2 hours ago, Celsius said:

 

In Thailand condos depreciate faster than cars short term. This is a fact and not sarcasm.

   Any actual data to back up this 'fact'?   I only ask because my partner and I have sold condos short term that we have bought new after just one or two years and all were sold at a profit.  The condos were at: The Base Central Pattaya, Unixx, Lumpini Park Beach, Centric Sea, Lumpini Seaview, View Talay 3, 5C, 5D, and 7, The Axis, and Lumpini Makkasan in Bangkok.  We've also bought and sold resale condos in older projects such as Northshore and Garden Cliff, also at a profit.  So, no depreciation was occurring for us, let alone at a new car's steep rate.  

[Celsius]

40 minutes ago, newnative said:

   Any actual data to back up this 'fact'?   I only ask because my partner and I have sold condos short term that we have bought new after just one or two years and all were sold at a profit.  The condos were at: The Base Central Pattaya, Unixx, Lumpini Park Beach, Centric Sea, Lumpini Seaview, View Talay 3, 5C, 5D, and 7, The Axis, and Lumpini Makkasan in Bangkok.  We've also bought and sold resale condos in older projects such as Northshore and Garden Cliff, also at a profit.  So, no depreciation was occurring for us, let alone at a new car's steep rate.  

 

No, no data. If there was any data we would actually know the "sold" prices of condos that you actually sold for, like in any civilized country.

 

That being said, if you bought The Base in Pattaya (which is an AirBnB central) it is possible to make a profit, especially if you bought during preconstruction or during pandemic. 

 

I am more familiar with Bangkok. Lumpini Makasan precon price started at 3.5 million which means the smallest room on the lowest floor (Studio 23sqm). Today I can get the cheapest room in this project on 24th floor 27sqm for 3.25 million, probably lower with negotiation. This building is what.... 4-5 years old? So, for at least this project that seems to be a lie.

 

Oh, and even if you were flipping these not so desirable condos the fact that you supposedly sold them in a short term would trigger quite a bit of taxes at the land office. 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Celsius

[newnative]

2 hours ago, Celsius said:

 

No, no data. If there was any data we would actually know the "sold" prices of condos that you actually sold for, like in any civilized country.

 

That being said, if you bought The Base in Pattaya (which is an AirBnB central) it is possible to make a profit, especially if you bought during preconstruction or during pandemic. 

 

I am more familiar with Bangkok. Lumpini Makasan precon price started at 3.5 million which means the smallest room on the lowest floor (Studio 23sqm). Today I can get the cheapest room in this project on 24th floor 27sqm for 3.25 million, probably lower with negotiation. This building is what.... 4-5 years old? So, for at least this project that seems to be a lie.

 

Oh, and even if you were flipping these not so desirable condos the fact that you supposedly sold them in a short term would trigger quite a bit of taxes at the land office. 

    Your figures are incorrect if you are referring to Lumpini Suites Phetchaburi-Makkasan, where we owned.  The Think of Living review website gives the pre-construction pricing as starting at 2.35MB for studio units, not your 3.5MB.  We actually bought one of the 24 sqm studios that you mentioned, pre-construction, for 2.4MB, so 100,000 baht a sqm.  It was on floor 8, facing the back of the building.  Studios are only on floors 4 to 8.  Fun fact: We were the very first buyer to go to closing at the project when it was finished.

     Sold it for 3.25MB after having it for about a year.  Just made a small profit on that one but we did not lose money and we were experimenting with whether we would like having a Bangkok getaway condo.  Decided we did and sold it to buy a bigger 1 bedroom unit at another project down the street closer to the Phetchaburi MRT.  Hipflat shows the average current price for the project at 153,149 baht per sqm.  I see a 23 sqm unit listed on floor 4 for 3,35MB, so priced slightly higher than what we achieved for our unit.  I'm not seeing your depreciation worse than a car with this project.  

[Celsius]

13 minutes ago, newnative said:

The Think of Living review website gives the pre-construction pricing as starting at 2.35MB for studio units, not your 3.5MB. 

 

Show me the link please.

 

Nevermind, I found it myself. 

 

Starts at 3.5 million or 140,000 per square meter.

 

https://thinkofliving.com/article/ลุมพินี-สวีท-เพชรบุรี-มักกะสัน-คอนโด-high-rise-35-ชั้น-ติดถนนเพชรบุรี-ห่าง-mrt-ประมาณ-900-ม-จากลุมพินี-preview-380091-พรีวิวโครงการ/

 

Edited May 30, 2023 by Celsius

[newnative]

4 minutes ago, Celsius said:

 

Show me the link please.

Here is the link:

https://thinkofliving.com/article/ลุมพินี-สวีท-เพชรบุรี-มักกะสัน-คอนโด-high-rise-35-ชั้น-ติดถนนเพชรบุรี-ห่าง-mrt-ประมาณ-900-ม-จากลุมพินี-preview-380091-พรีวิวโครงการ/

 

If that doesn't work just google Lumpini Phetchaburi Makkasan and Think of Living.

You're probably interested in this part:

• Lumpini Suite Petchburi-Makkasan (Lumpini Suite Petchburi-Makkasan)
• L.P.N Development Public Company Limited
• UPPER-HIGH CLASS ( read details of condo segment here )
• The project is located in the district: Ratchathewi
• High Rise Condo, 35 floors, 1 building, 636 units
• Up to 24  units per floor
• Approximately 40% of parking spaces, excluding double parking
• Approximately 3-0-71.1 rai of land
• Expected start of construction: April 2017
• Expected completion: end of 2018
• Studio 23 sq m. 
• 1 Bedroom 27-33 sq m. 
• 2 Bedrooms 34.5-61 sq m. 
• Ceiling height 2.6  meters
• Room rates start at 2.35 million baht (promotion room price).
• The average price per square meter for the entire project is 140,000  baht/square meter.
• Average price per square meter, lowest-highest n/a  baht/sq.m.

[Celsius]

I stand corrected then.

[newnative]

17 minutes ago, Celsius said:

 

Show me the link please.

 

Nevermind, I found it myself. 

 

Starts at 3.5 million or 140,000 per square meter.

 

https://thinkofliving.com/article/ลุมพินี-สวีท-เพชรบุรี-มักกะสัน-คอนโด-high-rise-35-ชั้น-ติดถนนเพชรบุรี-ห่าง-mrt-ประมาณ-900-ม-จากลุมพินี-preview-380091-พรีวิวโครงการ/

 

    You're misreading.  'Starts at 3.5 million' is incorrect for the project--and I didn't see that figure anywhere in the article, although I might have missed it.   Might be correct for a type of unit but not for the project as a whole--studios would not have started at that price or anywhere near it.

    You missed the 2.35MB price for buying off-plan.  We got 2.4MB buying pre-construction, for a 24sqm studio, so 100,000 baht a sqm, not 140,000 baht.  If you read the article it states the average price is 140,000 baht a sqm.  Obviously, higher floors and better view orientations command higher prices per sqm.  We were on floor 8 of a 35 floor building, with not much of a view.  As previously stated, this project is not conforming to your unsupported 'fact' that condos depreciate worse than a car.   Was an average 140,000 baht a sqm, now an average 153,000 baht a sqm.  

[newnative]

10 minutes ago, Celsius said:

I stand corrected then.

Did my latest post before I saw this.

[Celsius]

7 minutes ago, newnative said:

Did my latest post before I saw this.

 

However, in my wife's case who just sold her own condo she bought 12 years ago.

 

Purchase price, 1.7 million in 2010. Meanwhile BTS station opened (next door to condo), the shopping mall opened, next to major hospital and quite in demand with Stanford University students. The management went downhill. Sold 2 months ago for 1.39 million. 

 

Minus realtor fees, minus various taxes total around 1.3 mil. Location Srinakarin 

 

Her friend works for CBRE and she told me these depreciations are quite normal for condos. Not so for houses. So, forgive me for being a bit skeptical.

Edited May 30, 2023 by Celsius

[newnative]

57 minutes ago, Celsius said:

 

However, in my wife's case who just sold her own condo she bought 12 years ago.

 

Purchase price, 1.7 million in 2010. Meanwhile BTS station opened (next door to condo), the shopping mall opened, next to major hospital and quite in demand with Stanford University students. The management went downhill. Sold 2 months ago for 1.39 million. 

 

Minus realtor fees, minus various taxes total around 1.3 mil. Location Srinakarin 

 

Her friend works for CBRE and she told me these depreciations are quite normal for condos. Not so for houses. So, forgive me for being a bit skeptical.

     Nothing wrong with being skeptical.  And, certainly, not all condos appreciate here--and I've never said that they all do.  With some you are lucky if they hold their own in value.  I was mainly questioning  your statement that condos depreciate more than cars here--whether short or long-term.  I don't think that's the case with most condos.  

     For example, sticking with Lumpini Makkasan, we bought our studio in 2018 for 2.4MB.   That same year we bought a Honda CR-V for 1.5MB, which we still have.   2023 now and we would be lucky to get half our purchase price for the CR-V.  Meanwhile, the Lumpini studio has not depreciated by half to 1.2MB.  Your wife's condo lost some value, but did not depreciate as much as a new 2010 auto bought that same year. as her condo

     It's a shame her condo project was not better managed as those new things opening--especially the BTS stop--should have made the project more desirable.  On the plus side, she was able to find a buyer and she had the use of the condo for 12 years--that could have cushioned the depreciation had she lived there those years and saved on 12 years of rent payments.  Renting, though, has advantages if you don't mind living in someone else's space.  

[Celsius]

36 minutes ago, newnative said:

     

     It's a shame her condo project was not better managed as those new things opening--especially the BTS stop--should have made the project more desirable.  On the plus side, she was able to find a buyer and she had the use of the condo for 12 years--that could have cushioned the depreciation had she lived there those years and saved on 12 years of rent payments.  Renting, though, has advantages if you don't mind living in someone else's space.  

 

It was an investment property. It was quite easy to find student rentals pre covid.

 

Now she is stuck with another dog.....breeze Narathiwas. Although not next to BTS station the location is near Sathorn and units and building are quite well managed. Looking at another 20-25% loss.

[whiteman]

[newnative]

12 hours ago, Celsius said:

 

It was an investment property. It was quite easy to find student rentals pre covid.

 

Now she is stuck with another dog.....breeze Narathiwas. Although not next to BTS station the location is near Sathorn and units and building are quite well managed. Looking at another 20-25% loss.

      If the first condo was an investment property she might have held on to it while continuing to rent it rather than sell at a loss.  We never sell anything unless we make a profit and, instead, just continue to live in it rent free or rent it out.   I'm not understanding why you think her Breeze condo has lost 20 to 25% of its value.  Hipflat has the price per sqm going steadily up since it opened, with a current price per sqm of 136,754 baht per sqm.  Price per sqm up 8.89% from last year and rents up 10.92%.  See chart below which did not cut and paste very well but has the stats.  You say it is 'quite well managed' so that shouldn't be a factor, as it apparently might have been with the other condo.

 

Market Stats for The Breeze Narathiwas

• Current asking price per sqm.
  ฿136,754
• Asking price change from last quarter
   

   

  0

   

  %
• Asking price change from last year
   

   

  8.89

   

  %
• Achievable gross rental yield
  5.08

   

  %
• Rent price change from last year
   

   

  10.92

   

  %

Historical Asking Price per ㎡ (THB)

 

20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022฿80,000฿100,000฿120,000฿140,000

 

[KhunLA]

On 5/29/2023 at 2:17 PM, whiteman said:

 and glad she listens to my investing advice ... "don't borrow money for krap that depreciates" ????

 

 

Appartments also depreciate   I hope she will live in it maybe better that way

That also includes apartments.

She will be living in that condo, and in high demand, HiSo neighborhood, obviously.   She's pretty savvy buyer.

 

Her other, investment property, only 1 so far, is a townhouse (3X larger @ half the condo price) in Rangsit area, near Uni, so renting has been easy, covers cost & then some.   Just those 2 units, condo & townhouse, will be paid off in less than 20 years, giving her income to retire if wanting, at 45 yrs old.

 

Chip of the ol' block ????

[Tidal wave]

On 5/29/2023 at 4:01 AM, KhunLA said:

Daughter got a big discount on her condo at Krung Thep.  Project was slated for completion pre-covid, and her unit won't be ready till August.

 

Smaller, lower floor units (28 & 30m²) listed for 4.5M - 6.5M, and she picked up 40m² unit / 16th floor, for 5.39M ????  Still silly priced in my world, but I'm not HiSo ????

 

She was actually all set to buy a new car, and glad she listens to my investing advice ... "don't borrow money for krap that depreciates" ????

 

 

She probably wasn't listening to your self proclaimed investment advice but fast asleep like me ..