tensions in the south china sea

[save the frogs]

 

[save the frogs]

well, not everyone thinks the invasion is inevitable

 

https://aheadoftheherd.com/why-china-wont-go-to-war-with-taiwan-richard-mills/

The Chinese and US navies will continue to rattle sabers and play war games in the Taiwan Strait but an actual war over the tiny island? I don’t see it. Taiwan is simply too important economically and neither the United States nor China is independent enough of Taiwanese semiconductor control to risk the massive hit to manufacturing that a global chip shortage much worse than the current one would entail.

[AgMech Cowboy]

Dude said a lot of words without saying 'anything'...

China's a bully and the US is showing support and organizing all the 'little' nations who are being bullied.

Joe will bow to Xi.

[Stevemercer]

China claims the whole of the sea and treats it as its own territorial waters (despite the claim being rejected by International Tribunes). The Chinese position is that anyone else is trespassing illegally on its territorial seas.

 

China wants to bilaterally negotiate with each of the other claimant countries so it can screw each of them them for the best deal. The only way that these other nations can hope to face off China is by banding together to present a united front. China's diplomacy has always been to 'divide and conquer'.

 

 

[Srikcir]

15 hours ago, save the frogs said:

well, not everyone thinks the invasion is inevitable

 

https://aheadoftheherd.com/why-china-wont-go-to-war-with-taiwan-richard-mills/

The Chinese and US navies will continue to rattle sabers and play war games in the Taiwan Strait but an actual war over the tiny island? I don’t see it. Taiwan is simply too important economically and neither the United States nor China is independent enough of Taiwanese semiconductor control to risk the massive hit to manufacturing that a global chip shortage much worse than the current one would entail.

"America buys 70% of its most sophisticated chips from Taiwan." The same amount applies to China.

In 2022 about 92% of the most advanced chips in the world are made in Taiwan. A Chinese invasion would shutdown a  trillion dollar enterprise that would crush the Chinese industry,

However, if China can neutralize its dependence on Taiwan and/or pull Taiwan into its political and economic orbit as it has done with Hong Kong, relations between Taiwan and the US may be jeopardized without a shot being fired.