notrub Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 30 06 2023 Crystal ball question coming up... Is the current valuation of the THB only due to recent political problems or is there deeper problem with the Thai economy? Exchange to the Euro is as high as it has been for well over5 years. Given the war in Europe and uncertainty there it is surprising that the Euro is strengthening. Is the current trend too good to last? Should I change more than just a couple of thousand now? Yes, I know, 'nobody knows' but it would be interesting to learn your thoughts. Thank you???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieH Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Banking forum. MOVED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitkof Island Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 So much debt in Thailand due to greed and shear stupidity trying to copy foreigners will be their downfall. Only a matter of time before the banks crash. Once again like 1997 begging America to save their A$$e$ again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bamboozled Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 Come on, man! The Thai economy has no bearing on the Thai baht. Everyone knows that! Nor do political events or sea changes in deeply embedded cultural touchstones. I am being somewhat facetious, I think. Having been here awhile and having tried to gauge the direction of the baht, based on the various factors mentioned above, I have come to see that it's very difficult. You get black swan events in Thailand and the baht appreciates. Well, that's my experience. I'm no financial wizard by any means. Not for nothing is it called Teflon Thailand. Also known as TITs. Together: Teflon Tits. Who knew? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pomchop Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 The tide comes in...the tide goes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhunBENQ Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, bamboozled said: Come on, man! The Thai economy has no bearing on the Thai baht. Everyone knows that! Nor do political events or sea changes in deeply embedded cultural touchstones May 22, 2014 Military coup. For two months no significant change in EUR/THB (~44.5). And after that a long period of gain for the THB started (EUR down to 34.5 in March 15, loss of more than 20%). Markets love stable dictatorships. Markets hate change/uncertainty. So I am not quite sure whether the current perspective of change does not affect the rate. Edited June 30, 2023 by KhunBENQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chivas Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 To the OP three simple words "Pound Cost Averaging" or in your case the Euro If you're happy with the current rate change the monies, If it further rises change more and "Euro Cost average" Its win win.....however do nothing whatsoever and the rate subsequently drops from the current level then its simply lose lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caldera Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 It's pretty much impossible to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BenStark Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 10 hours ago, Chivas said: To the OP three simple words "Pound Cost Averaging" or in your case the Euro If you're happy with the current rate change the monies, If it further rises change more and "Euro Cost average" Its win win.....however do nothing whatsoever and the rate subsequently drops from the current level then its simply lose lose Tomorrow there will be sunshine all day, with rain showers in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ozimoron Posted June 30, 2023 Share Posted June 30, 2023 (edited) I think the US dollar will weaken soon, so the baht should strengthen. The baht is at a fairly low level to the US, it's most traded zone is around 31 baht over the past fifteen years. From a chart point of view, the baht strengthened significantly from October to January and then reversed course to weaken in a correction. It touched the neckline of its current pattern at the end of February at the current price of 31.3. This week it stole that high at the neck line and will finish the week with a strong rejection wick on Sunday if the current price holds which it likely will being a long weekend in the US. This rejection wick is an evening star pattern and on the weekly is a strongly bearish (for the USD) candle pattern. Against that is that it had a strong bounce off it's last swing low at 32.7 and again bounced off a retest of the 200 week moving average and cleared all the major moving averages. The dollar should be bullish against the baht but there's that candle. I'm probably wrong but I think the baht will strengthen to 32 in the near term. The DXY is also looking weak and the inflation numbers today might reduce the expectations for more than 1 future rate hike in July. In the short term it could go either way but I expect the DXY to show continuation to the downside over the next weeks. There was also strong hidden bullish divergence for the USD at the swing low which is why the baht weakened after January. That has probably now played out. Edited June 30, 2023 by ozimoron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now