Analysis The chance of Trump winning another term is very real

[Social Media]

 

Donald Trump is facing two indictments, with the potential for more. Political wisdom may have once suggested the former president’s bid for a second White House term would be nothing but a pipe dream. But most of us know better by now.

Trump is not only in a historically strong position for a nonincumbent to win the Republican nomination, but he is in a better position to win the general election than at any point during the 2020 cycle and almost at any point during the 2016 cycle.

No one in Trump’s current polling position in the modern era has lost an open presidential primary that didn’t feature an incumbent. He’s pulling in more than 50% of support in the national primary polls, i.e., more than all his competitors combined.

 

Three prior candidates in open primaries were pulling in more than half the vote in primary surveys in the second half of the calendar year before the election: Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and Democrat Hillary Clinton in 2016. Gore remains the only nonincumbent to win every single presidential nominating contest, while Bush and Clinton never lost their national polling advantage in their primaries.

 

FULL ARTICLE

[BenStark]

I don't like Trump, and if I was an American I would never vote for him, since I know from long before he even was in politics that he's a liar and bragger.

 

I have an even bigger dislike for the liberals and 90% of their policies.

 

 

[riclag]

“But for now, the chance that Trump is president in less than two years time is a very real possibility”.

Why is it a possibility! Some people 

want somebody thats willing to stand up for Americans and fight for traditional values imop 

 

 Do the neocons and dems dislike his ideas, no doubt! 
He has a vision to rearrange the Washington  establishment and he has many grassroots supporters who feel the same.

He mentioned at his rally he’s got grassroots support and many of his donations are less than $50

 

 

Edited July 31, 2023 by riclag

[Bkk Brian]

18 minutes ago, riclag said:

“But for now, the chance that Trump is president in less than two years time is a very real possibility”.

Why is it a possibility! Some people 

want somebody thats willing to stand up for Americans and fight for traditional values imop 

 

 Do the neocons and dems dislike his ideas, no doubt! 
He has a vision to rearrange the Washington  establishment and he has many grassroots supporters who feel the same.

He mentioned at his rally he’s got grassroots support and many of his donations are less than $50

 

 

"He mentioned at his rally he’s got grassroots support and many of his donations are less than $50"

 

Do these grassroots supporters know that much of their donations go towards his legal fee's due to his many indictments bought about by the evidence against him breaking the law?

[SunnyinBangrak]

53 minutes ago, riclag said:

“But for now, the chance that Trump is president in less than two years time is a very real possibility”.

Why is it a possibility! Some people 

want somebody thats willing to stand up for Americans and fight for traditional values imop 

 

 Do the neocons and dems dislike his ideas, no doubt! 
He has a vision to rearrange the Washington  establishment and he has many grassroots supporters who feel the same.

He mentioned at his rally he’s got grassroots support and many of his donations are less than $50

 

 

I'd vote for him solely because he will negotiate peace rather than continue the insane democrats foreign wars. The only winners in the left's war with Russia are the weapons manufacturers and other parasitical companies that thrive on the left's foreign military adventures.

 

 Plus he's incredible with the economy, and favors free speech over govt/social media collaboration to censor content that is inconvenient to the narrative(such as the biden corruption & crime laptop). Oh, and he is a fan of rewarding everyone for their own efforts rather than making everything about the color of one's skin.

 

Go Trump!! Humankind's survival depends on you winning in 2024. 

[placeholder]

16 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

I'd vote for him solely because he will negotiate peace rather than continue the insane democrats foreign wars. The only winners in the left's war with Russia are the weapons manufacturers and other parasitical companies that thrive on the left's foreign military adventures.

 

 Plus he's incredible with the economy, and favors free speech over govt/social media collaboration to censor content that is inconvenient to the narrative(such as the biden corruption & crime laptop). Oh, and he is a fan of rewarding everyone for their own efforts rather than making everything about the color of one's skin.

 

Go Trump!! Humankind's survival depends on you winning in 2024. 

Here's a piece of Trump's "incredbile with the economy" record" GDP Growth:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-growth

[Bkk Brian]

26 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

I'd vote for him solely because he will negotiate peace rather than continue the insane democrats foreign wars. The only winners in the left's war with Russia are the weapons manufacturers and other parasitical companies that thrive on the left's foreign military adventures.

 

 Plus he's incredible with the economy, and favors free speech over govt/social media collaboration to censor content that is inconvenient to the narrative(such as the biden corruption & crime laptop). Oh, and he is a fan of rewarding everyone for their own efforts rather than making everything about the color of one's skin.

 

Go Trump!! Humankind's survival depends on you winning in 2024. 

Trump calls again for blackmailing Ukraine – echoing what got him impeached

[Hanaguma]

Most polls these days show Trump up on Biden. Plus he has the advantage of being able to point to a few things like his economy, gas prices, peace in the Middle East, not starting any new wars, great economy for minorities, destroying ISIS, reforming the judiciary... a decent list of accomplishments.

[ozimoron]

3 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

Most polls these days show Trump up on Biden. Plus he has the advantage of being able to point to a few things like his economy, gas prices, peace in the Middle East, not starting any new wars, great economy for minorities, destroying ISIS, reforming the judiciary... a decent list of accomplishments.

Links?

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Edited July 31, 2023 by ozimoron

[Bkk Brian]

10 minutes ago, nauseus said:

Raw story or bed time story?

When you've got nothing to respond with except the media outlet which has a high factual rating

[Hanaguma]

8 minutes ago, ozimoron said:

Links?

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Thanks for posting that. In the latest 4 head-to-head polls on the site, Trump beats Biden by from 2 to 8 points. The other is a tie. 

[Jingthing]

28 minutes ago, Hanaguma said:

Most polls these days show Trump up on Biden. Plus he has the advantage of being able to point to a few things like his economy, gas prices, peace in the Middle East, not starting any new wars, great economy for minorities, destroying ISIS, reforming the judiciary... a decent list of accomplishments.

No they don't. 

[Hanaguma]

21 minutes ago, Jingthing said:

No they don't. 

See above. On the 538 website (hardly a bastion of the right wing), 3 of the 4 most recent polls put Trump AHEAD of Biden. 

[Trippy]

IMHO Trump has no chance to win the general election. The never-Trumpers voted him out last time, and that was before Jan 6th, and his overall behavior since the election, so I'm sure there's even more that would never vote for him now.

 

 

[candide]

1 hour ago, Hanaguma said:

Most polls these days show Trump up on Biden. Plus he has the advantage of being able to point to a few things like his economy, gas prices, peace in the Middle East, not starting any new wars, great economy for minorities, destroying ISIS, reforming the judiciary... a decent list of accomplishments.

Really?

https://www.racetothewh.com/president/polls

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, nauseus said:

The expected clownish comment.

And from you, the expected distaste for facts.

[Tug]

With abortion ,fighting any remedy for the gun violence that’s slaughtering our kids and regular folk also the fact that the Biden administration is taming inflation excellent unemployment #s foreign policy back on track creating jobs not obstructing justice not blabbing state secrets to god knows who not trying to destroy our democracy not being a serial sexual assaulter don’t think so unless there’s a lot of voter apathy and some freak of that miserable electoral college 

[LosLobo]

1 hour ago, Hanaguma said:

Most polls these days show Trump up on Biden. Plus he has the advantage of being able to point to a few things like his economy, gas prices, peace in the Middle East, not starting any new wars, great economy for minorities, destroying ISIS, reforming the judiciary... a decent list of accomplishments.

What no citations to support your hodge-podge of  opinions.

 

You obviously voted for Trump in 2016.

 

IMHO, if Trump was representative of all the supporters who voted for him in the 2016 election and they vote the same again next year, God help us!

 

The mafioso Don, would without the guard rails from the very few good men of his past administration, present a dystopian world, the same as we see in Russia, China and even North Korea now.

 

With the weak and ineffective GOP and the tainted and biased SCOTUS, he would achieve what the founders feared the most.

 

In the words of James Madison: “The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few, or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny.”

 

[riclag]

29 minutes ago, Trippy said:

IMHO Trump has no chance to win the general election. The never-Trumpers voted him out last time, and that was before Jan 6th, and his overall behavior since the election, so I'm sure there's even more that would never vote for him now.

 

 

Only time will tell ! But right now Harvard / Harris shows the Independent voter siding heavily toward 45.

In June Trump was beating biden with Independents by 4% points in this july poll,it went to 18%

points! 
The lines have been drawn on both sides, left & right! The fight is for the Swing vote!

https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/HHP_July2023_KeyResults.pdf

 

 

[Yellowtail]

3 hours ago, Bkk Brian said:

"He mentioned at his rally he’s got grassroots support and many of his donations are less than $50"

 

Do these grassroots supporters know that much of their donations go towards his legal fee's due to his many indictments bought about by the evidence against him breaking the law?

Do you think that there are people paying enough attention to donate money that do not know he is being targeted for prosecution? 

 

 

[spidermike007]

4 hours ago, riclag said:

“But for now, the chance that Trump is president in less than two years time is a very real possibility”.

Why is it a possibility! Some people 

want somebody thats willing to stand up for Americans and fight for traditional values imop 

 

 Do the neocons and dems dislike his ideas, no doubt! 
He has a vision to rearrange the Washington  establishment and he has many grassroots supporters who feel the same.

He mentioned at his rally he’s got grassroots support and many of his donations are less than $50

 

 

That is total nonsense. He replaced 8 foot alligators, with 14 foot crocodiles. Analyze his cabinet. Nearly every one of his appointments were men and women totally lacking morality, character, ethics, or capability. His presidency was likely the 44th worst in American history. His foreign policy was an absolute disaster. His trade war with China failed miserably, as did his "negotiations" with Xi, Kim, MBS, Putin and nearly everyone else. The man cannot negotiate his way out of a paper bag.

 

I do not like the choice of Biden as a choice for the dems. I think it is a huge mistake. But, I would vote for Mylie Cyrus over Trump. His base is narrower than it was the first time. He will lose. But, being a loser is something he is accustomed to.

 

 

Edited July 31, 2023 by spidermike007

[LosLobo]

5 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Do you think that there are people paying enough attention to donate money that do not know he is being targeted for prosecution? 

 

 

Obviously not!

 

If they were paying attention they would realise that Trump is a sociopathic, pathological and narcissistic liar and that they are being conned.

 

Edited July 31, 2023 by LosLobo

[Yellowtail]

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

When you've got nothing to respond with except the media outlet which has a high factual rating

And a left bias. 

 

The issue is generally not the "facts", but the bias. 

 

 

 

[nauseus]

33 minutes ago, placeholder said:

And from you, the expected distaste for facts.

Your falsely annotated so-called "facts" chart seems to blame Trump for the Covid outbreak. 

 

That is what is distateful.

[Hanaguma]

13 minutes ago, LosLobo said:

What no citations to support your hodge-podge of  opinions.

 

You obviously voted for Trump in 2016.

 

IMHO, if Trump was representative of all the supporters who voted for him in the 2016 election and they vote the same again next year, God help us!

 

The mafioso Don, would without the guard rails from the very few good men of his past administration, present a dystopian world, the same as we see in Russia, China and even North Korea now.

 

With the weak and ineffective GOP and the tainted and biased SCOTUS, he would achieve what the founders feared the most.

 

In the words of James Madison: “The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few, or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny.”

 

No, I didn't vote for The Donald in 2016. Nice try though. 

 

As for "my opinions", they are common sense and easily searched for. All simple facts that are not in dispute. 

[nauseus]

18 minutes ago, LosLobo said:

What no citations to support your hodge-podge of  opinions.

 

You obviously voted for Trump in 2016.

 

IMHO, if Trump was representative of all the supporters who voted for him in the 2016 election and they vote the same again next year, God help us!

 

The mafioso Don, would without the guard rails from the very few good men of his past administration, present a dystopian world, the same as we see in Russia, China and even North Korea now.

 

With the weak and ineffective GOP and the tainted and biased SCOTUS, he would achieve what the founders feared the most.

 

In the words of James Madison: “The accumulation of all powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary, in the same hands, whether of one, a few, or many, and whether hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, may justly be pronounced the very definition of tyranny.”

 

That last para seems to summaries' what the Democrats are tying to do right now. Just as well the Republicans won the house back.

[Bkk Brian]

16 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Do you think that there are people paying enough attention to donate money that do not know he is being targeted for prosecution? 

 

 

Do you think those people know that their money is being spent on his legal bills, not only his bills but dozens of others with costs mushrooming daily?

 

Do you think they know that this year alone they have contributed $40 million to those bills?

 

That total is more than any other expense the PAC has incurred during Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and, according to federal filings from earlier this month, more than Trump’s campaign raised in the second quarter of 2023.

PAC, which raises most of its money from small-dollar contributions by Trump supporters across the country, is footing the legal bills for almost anyone drawn into the investigations who requests help from the former president and his advisers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/29/trump-lawyers-pac-deoliveira-loyal/

 

[Yellowtail]

1 minute ago, Bkk Brian said:

Do you think those people know that their money is being spent on his legal bills, not only his bills but dozens of others with costs mushrooming daily?

 

Do you think they know that this year alone they have contributed $40 million to those bills?

 

That total is more than any other expense the PAC has incurred during Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign and, according to federal filings from earlier this month, more than Trump’s campaign raised in the second quarter of 2023.

PAC, which raises most of its money from small-dollar contributions by Trump supporters across the country, is footing the legal bills for almost anyone drawn into the investigations who requests help from the former president and his advisers.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/07/29/trump-lawyers-pac-deoliveira-loyal/

 

Yes, I think they know Trump needs money to defend himself. 

[Bkk Brian]

22 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

And a left bias. 

 

The issue is generally not the "facts", but the bias. 

 

Thanks for confirming that the facts take second place. Its also reported in the W.P.

 

Former president Donald Trump called on congressional Republicans to withhold military support for Ukraine until the Biden administration cooperates with their investigations into the president and his son Hunter Biden’s business dealings.

The demand, delivered at a rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, echoed Trump’s conduct at issue during his first impeachment, when Trump withheld aid from Ukraine while pressuring the country’s president to announce an investigation of Biden.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/29/trump-ukraine-congress-hunter-biden/

Edited July 31, 2023 by Bkk Brian

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, riclag said:

want somebody thats willing to stand up for Americans and fight for traditional values imop

A nice sentiment, unfortunately America is on the slippery slope to self destruction.

No-one can save the people from destroying themselves with crazy ideologies.

Not even a half decent president.