Sobering news for new Pheu Thai ministers as economic growth rate continues to weaken

[webfact]

Newly appointed Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce Phumtham Wechayachai arrives at his ministerial office in Nonthaburi on Thursday. (Right) Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin in Khon Kaen on Saturday as he toured Thailand’s northeastern provinces and addressed the concerns of the farming community.

A claim that Thailand can return to a 5% GDP growth rate made by Srettha Thavisin in Khon Kaen on Saturday is at odds with the trend with the Bank of Thailand cutting back its projection to 3.6% for 2023 with even this moving out of reach amid flagging exports and a darker external environment with serious problems in China and rising geopolitical discord.

Pheu Thai ministers taking up cabinet positions, this week, including the new Prime Minister and Finance Minister Srettha Thavisin and Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai at the Ministry of Commerce have been greeted with sobering economic data showing that the kingdom’s economy, still reeling from the devastation of the pandemic, is struggling to achieve target growth rates for the year with the Bank of Thailand reducing projected growth to 3.6% while figures for the second quarter and the first half of the year show impaired GDP growth of between 1.8% to 2.2%.

 

The new Minister of Commerce and Deputy Prime Minister Mr Phumtham Wechayachai took up his post on Thursday at the Commerce Ministry in Nonthaburi province near Bangkok.

 

by Joseph O' Connor

 

Full story: https://www.thaiexaminer.com/thai-news-foreigners/2023/09/09/sobering-data-for-new-pheu-thai-ministers-srettha-thavisin-phumtham-wechayachai/

 

-- Thai Examiner 2023-09-11

 

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[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, webfact said:

A claim that Thailand can return to a 5% GDP growth rate made by Srettha Thavisin in Khon Kaen on Saturday

Promises promises...

[morrobay]

As well as projecting Chinese arrivals to 5 million at end of year from current 1.8 million. And with this Chinese style restaurant in Naklua that used to have 4-5 tour busses in front mid-day and now none ? Vietnam, Malaysia , Philippines are at 8 and 7 percent GDP . Seems major economic problems here. Maybe the government should use it's foreign currency reserves to shore up all the distressed sectors instead of propping up the baht. 

[stoner]

later today or tomorrow a new story will come out about how tourism is and/or is expected to hit record numbers. hotel bookings are up. searches are up. etc etc.

 

 

[bamnutsak]

The Prayuth regime, after eight years of rule pillaging the country's coffers, have left this government with nothing but problems, many of which are hidden.

 

The corruption they've allowed to grow will make solving any problem much more challenging.

 

Unexploded mines everywhere.

 

Can't see Srettha lasting what, six months?

 

 

[Longwood50]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

A claim that Thailand can return to a 5% GDP growth rate made by Srettha Thavisin

[retarius]

Personally I don't see 5% growth this year. Is a miracle going to happen in the last quarter? Then when growth comes in a 2% or 3% blame it on Prayut. 

[morrobay]

36 minutes ago, bamnutsak said:

 

 

The corruption they've allowed to grow will make solving any problem much more challenging.

 

Unexploded mines everywhere.

 

 

 

 

"Unexploded mines everywhere". And can you say just exactly what they may be ? 

[bamnutsak]

6 minutes ago, morrobay said:

And can you say just exactly what they may be ? 

I shall, once they explode and make the news.

 

Obviously this latest submarine engine fiasco has been brewing for some time, but only became an issue this week when the new government was saddle with it.

 

Next may be they requirement for the government to bail out the Village Fund and many of the Savings Cooperatives.

 

Just watch Srettha scurry from one crisis to another and you'll see the explosions.

 

 

IMO MFP was lucky to have been denied the opportunity to lead this government given the shambles it was left in.

 

 

 

 

 

[mfd101]

1 hour ago, bamnutsak said:

Can't see Srettha lasting what, six months?

 

 

We shall see. So far he's doing fine - intelligent, open-minded, approachable.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Thailand have a stagnation problem,  with low inflation and high debt.

 

[Adumbration]

14 minutes ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Thailand have a stagnation problem,  with low inflation and high debt.

 

The show stopper however is the inverted population pyramid.

[bamnutsak]

18 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

We shall see. So far he's doing fine - intelligent, open-minded, approachable.

 

"So far..."

 

Yes, it's been a brilliant six days since he was sworn into office last Tuesday.

 

Based on video and news reports he doesn't seem very open-minded (other than telling anyone exactly what they want to hear), and he is far from "approachable", again based on reports and video.

 

"Intelligent"? I'll take your word on that one.

 

 

In just six days he's already walked back two MAJOR campaign promises: 10,000 Baht Digital Wallet, which he banished to the back seat of a Thai TAxi-cab hoping the driver doesn't return it, and the 20 baht electric train fare.

 

So maybe not so "fine"?

 

 

 

 

 

 

[whiteman]

[whiteman]

drop the bhat might also help

[sammieuk1]

Good or bad news up go's the baht no doubt ????

[ikke1959]

The result of holding the country back from improvements.. In every country where Gay Marriage is possible it boosted the local economy.. Here in Thailand more than a decade needed before making a decision and still no hope that it would be shortly implemented.. The so called strong THB has done a lot of damage as products were more expensive.. By suddenly weaken the THB there are probably many contracts lost as other countries with te same products could be cheaper, a political instable situation is also a reason why businesses are being careful to invest , besides the outdated laws here already. And tourism is discouraged all over the world for long flight holidays for climate change, while a lot of restrictions are also not welcoming tourists, alcoholsales hours, e-cigarettes, double standards in price and police enforcements etc, combined with a strong( expensive) THB not attractive for tourists at this moment. Nothing to do with visa, as most tourist come for not more than 3/4 weeks. Another thing are the people for retirement. Thailand doesn't notice that children and grandchildren will visit their parents/grandparents, and they will go out and explore the country. But instead of welcoming them, it is being discouraged, by outdated laws and rules and requirements...There is a lot of work to do  

[Sydebolle]

Thailand's CPI lower than Switzerland - what a joke. The Swiss figure might be right (or not, I don't know) but living here for many years I certainly can attest, that the CPI on a year-on-year basis certainly rose more than just 0.9% ???? 

[ExpatOilWorker]

45 minutes ago, Adumbration said:

The show stopper however is the inverted population pyramid.

Good point. The Demographics is a long term challenge for many Asian countries. Koreans have exceptionally few kids.

 

[sscc]

1 hour ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Thailand have a stagnation problem,  with low inflation and high debt.

 

 

High inflation and negative growth at same time  =  Stagflation. 

Thailand currently has NONE of either. 

 

Stick with your claim elsewhere even you are keen to criticize Thailand. 

 

 

 

 

[Adumbration]

36 minutes ago, Sydebolle said:

Thailand's CPI lower than Switzerland - what a joke. The Swiss figure might be right (or not, I don't know) but living here for many years I certainly can attest, that the CPI on a year-on-year basis certainly rose more than just 0.9% ???? 

Every statistic coming from the Thai government is entirely fabricated.

[Adumbration]

41 minutes ago, ikke1959 said:

The result of holding the country back from improvements.. In every country where Gay Marriage is possible it boosted the local economy.. Here in Thailand more than a decade needed before making a decision and still no hope that it would be shortly implemented.. The so called strong THB has done a lot of damage as products were more expensive.. By suddenly weaken the THB there are probably many contracts lost as other countries with te same products could be cheaper, a political instable situation is also a reason why businesses are being careful to invest , besides the outdated laws here already. And tourism is discouraged all over the world for long flight holidays for climate change, while a lot of restrictions are also not welcoming tourists, alcoholsales hours, e-cigarettes, double standards in price and police enforcements etc, combined with a strong( expensive) THB not attractive for tourists at this moment. Nothing to do with visa, as most tourist come for not more than 3/4 weeks. Another thing are the people for retirement. Thailand doesn't notice that children and grandchildren will visit their parents/grandparents, and they will go out and explore the country. But instead of welcoming them, it is being discouraged, by outdated laws and rules and requirements...There is a lot of work to do  

Good grief....the biggest hurdle on Thailand's horizon is it inverted population pyramid.  And you think that legalising gay marriage will help that issue.  Jeesuz wept.

[positivevibes]

We need more covid spreading animals from China!

 

They spend way more than the fat old pervs from Arizona or the young pork dodgers from Israel.

 

We love you Chinese people. Just stop eating our pets!

[sammieuk1]

Good or bad news up go's the baht no doubt ????

[ExpatOilWorker]

1 hour ago, sscc said:

 

High inflation and negative growth at same time  =  Stagflation. 

Thailand currently has NONE of either. 

 

Stick with your claim elsewhere even you are keen to criticize Thailand. 

 

 

 

 

Stagnation is not the same as stagflation. Apples are also not the same as oranges, you are correct.

[Eric Loh]

The ministers get to work starting this week and will have to hit the road running. They have the luxury of a full 4 years term to implement and drive their policies. With export slowing, the best options for growth will fall on domestic consumption, tourism and attracting FDI. There is high hopes for Sretha's policy statement today that will be heavy on handouts like the 10k e-wallet, lower energy prices, debt payment moratoriums to boost the economy as well as further relaxation of visa requirements for specific countries to boost tourism. I look forward to a robust debates from the opposition parties as policies shaped up. After 2 decades that have more years of military government than civilian government that has rendered Thailand the moniker as the sick man of south ease asia, the next 4 years of civilian government is expected to make a difference. . 

[realfunster]

2 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Thailand have a stagnation problem,  with low inflation and high debt.

 

 

Yep.

Apart from the relatively "no-brain" option of milking tourism to death (2000 : 10m pax --> 2019 : 40m pax) I find it hard to clearly identify what Thailand has done to innovate or meaningfully develop it's economy over the last 20 years or so...which is concerning for a middle-income country with a super-aged population status.

[soalbundy]

3 hours ago, ExpatOilWorker said:

Thailand have a stagnation problem,  with low inflation and high debt.

 

Yes, the good times are coming to an end, we are at the beginning of a bad economic cycle, Europe and China, both major economic blocks, seem especially vulnerable which will no doubt hurt EM's and even America. It's a case of lock your door until the sun shines again, I for one expect unrest even in mature economies, the patience of the working poor has limits.

[mancub]

33 minutes ago, Eric Loh said:

the next 4 years of civilian government is expected to make a difference. . 

Not unless this "civilian" government can (or has the desire to) break it's military affiliated shackles,

 

[ikke1959]

1 hour ago, Adumbration said:

Good grief....the biggest hurdle on Thailand's horizon is it inverted population pyramid.  And you think that legalising gay marriage will help that issue.  Jeesuz wept.

the inverted population pyramid will help the economy more do you think??? For me easy.. start with easy to implement measures, for a economy boost for locals.. If there is more to earn things will change, but keep on going like this will only worse things. and yes.. Gay Marriage  will contribute to that.Or do you never go to weddings??