Analysis Israel's options don't look good - but a full-scale military campaign in the near future is inevitable

[Yellowtail]

4 minutes ago, placeholder said:

What don't you understand about the fact that Israel has imposed a blockade on Gaza?

What don't you understand about the same materials being used to build tunnels and rockets as hotels? 

 

How were they able to build a desalinization plant with the blockade? 

 

What does the blockade not allow in? Does it stop all imports from all countries? 

 

 

[placeholder]

2 minutes ago, placnx said:

It will be impossible to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank without shrinking these settlements and dismantling the most egregious, such as Hebron. Settler rampages show that a lot of thought would have to go into stop them from being a danger to Palestinians. Or offending settlers would have to be banned from the West Bank; extraterritorial status of settlers should be limited so that crimes committed in the West Bank (against Palestinians) would fall under Palestinian law.

 

It will be a very heavy lift to achieve a viable Palestinian state.

As far as I can tell, not one settler family has ever experienced the collective punishment inflicted on the Palestinians.

[Yellowtail]

Just now, placeholder said:

Given the way that Israel has crippled the Palestinian economy in the West Bank, allow me to doubt that it would allow strong economic development in Gaza. Especially given the hostility that the locals feel towards Israel.

How has Israel crippled the Palestinian economy? Does Israel stop Palestine from trading from all the other countries in the region? 

[Yellowtail]

2 minutes ago, placeholder said:

As far as I can tell, not one settler family has ever experienced the collective punishment inflicted on the Palestinians.

Can you explain the "collective punishment" inflicted on the Palestinians?

 

[placeholder]

9 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

What don't you understand about the same materials being used to build tunnels and rockets as hotels? 

 

How were they able to build a desalinization plant with the blockade? 

 

What does the blockade not allow in? Does it stop all imports from all countries? 

 

 

Really, hotels are built with same materials as tunnels and rockets? Nothing else? There's not a huge variety of materiel and a huge volume as well to build a modern economy?

 

"For years, Israel has restricted the entry of construction materials, chemicals, machinery, and spare parts into Gaza that are needed for industry and agriculture, the health sector, and civilian infrastructure. Israel considers thousands of items to be “dual-use,” that is, civilian goods that could also be used for a military purpose. The list of items Israel defines as “dual-use” for purposes of entry into the Gaza Strip and the West Bank far exceeds the internationally accepted standard and contains vague, broad categories such as “communications equipment” or “vehicles.” The section of the list pertaining to Gaza is particularly long."

https://gisha.org/en/thermometers-incubators-and-selfie-sticks-100-products-that-israel-will-no-longer-treat-as-dual-use-items/

 

First, do you acknowledge that your statement about the Unicef desalination plant was false? And, by the way, the word "Unicef" might lead you to an answer to your query.

 

 

[Yellowtail]

Oh, and tell us again about how Gaza's an "open air prison" 

 

Of course they have cars and what whatnot, so at least they can drive around in the open air prison...

[placeholder]

7 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Can you explain the "collective punishment" inflicted on the Palestinians?

 

https://www.btselem.org/topic/punitive_demolitions

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

How has Israel crippled the Palestinian economy? Does Israel stop Palestine from trading from all the other countries in the region? 

I have just given you access to detailed information about how Israel harms the economies of the West Bank and Gaza. I have neither the power nor the desire to force you to engage with it.

[Yellowtail]

9 hours ago, placeholder said:

Really, hotels are built with same materials as tunnels and rockets? Nothing else? There's not a huge variety of materiel and a huge volume as well to build a modern economy?

 

"For years, Israel has restricted the entry of construction materials, chemicals, machinery, and spare parts into Gaza that are needed for industry and agriculture, the health sector, and civilian infrastructure. Israel considers thousands of items to be “dual-use,” that is, civilian goods that could also be used for a military purpose. The list of items Israel defines as “dual-use” for purposes of entry into the Gaza Strip and the West Bank far exceeds the internationally accepted standard and contains vague, broad categories such as “communications equipment” or “vehicles.” The section of the list pertaining to Gaza is particularly long."

https://gisha.org/en/thermometers-incubators-and-selfie-sticks-100-products-that-israel-will-no-longer-treat-as-dual-use-items/

 

First, do you acknowledge that your statement about the Unicef desalination plant was false? And, by the way, the word "Unicef" might lead you to an answer to your query.

 

 

I'll admit I was wrong when about the de-sal plant when it's finished. They've been building a two-year project for almost ten years, and (per your link) it's in the "final stages" 

 

Yeah, pretty much the same materials for hotels as tunnels and desalinization plants.

 

Does Israel block trading with all other countries? If so, how?

 

[Yellowtail]

5 minutes ago, placeholder said:

https://www.btselem.org/topic/punitive_demolitions

If you don't know, just say you don't know. 

[Morch]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Given the way that Israel has crippled the Palestinian economy in the West Bank, allow me to doubt that it would allow strong economic development in Gaza. Especially given the hostility that the locals feel towards Israel.

You are just deflecting now, and avoiding the issue.

 

Hamas could have changed its stance vs. Israel, could have kept it but avoid acting on it, or whatever. Choices carry consequences. Hamas could have given Israel the motivation to ease restrictions, and generally did just the opposite. Somehow you find that this is Israel's fault.

 

You can imagine what you like, but the fact is that crippled as it might be, the West Bank economy is still in a much better shape than the Gaza Strip's. If you wish to claim there's no significant differences, you're either being obstinate, clueless or an all-or-nothing person.

 

Similar concepts apply to the Egypt side of things as well.

 

And again - even with the blockade at place, Gaza's situation could have been better had the Hamas chosen to invest less in 'resistance' and more in developing infrastructure, welfare, education and so on. Civilian stuff. Instead it invested in arms, rockets, tunnels, bunkers and took a hefty cut of everything. The choice was made to prefer 'resistance' over civilians' well being.

 

The 7/10 attack, and expected Israeli response are just another symptom of the same (I'm not getting into the domestic political angle within Hamas now, even).

 

You seem to try and paint things with Israel as the sole responsible for all that's wrong  - that's not how reality is.

[placeholder]

Just now, Yellowtail said:

I'll admit I was wrong when about the de-sal plant when it's finished. They've been building a two-year project for almost ten years, and (per your link) it's in the "final stages" 

 

Yeah, pretty much the same materials for hotels as tunnels and desalinization plants.

 

Does Israel block trading with all other countries? If so, how?

 

Please provide a link to evidence showing that "They've been building a two-year project for almost ten years, and (per your link) it's in the "final stages"" 

 

Clearly, you didn't even read the excerpts I cited to you. There is information in one of them about the range of items that Israel prevents from entering Gaza via its blockade. I have given you the information needed to answer these questions. I cannot help it if you refuse to engage with it.

[Morch]

25 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

How has Israel crippled the Palestinian economy? Does Israel stop Palestine from trading from all the other countries in the region? 

Yes.

[placeholder]

4 minutes ago, Morch said:

You are just deflecting now, and avoiding the issue.

 

Hamas could have changed its stance vs. Israel, could have kept it but avoid acting on it, or whatever. Choices carry consequences. Hamas could have given Israel the motivation to ease restrictions, and generally did just the opposite. Somehow you find that this is Israel's fault.

 

You can imagine what you like, but the fact is that crippled as it might be, the West Bank economy is still in a much better shape than the Gaza Strip's. If you wish to claim there's no significant differences, you're either being obstinate, clueless or an all-or-nothing person.

 

Similar concepts apply to the Egypt side of things as well.

 

And again - even with the blockade at place, Gaza's situation could have been better had the Hamas chosen to invest less in 'resistance' and more in developing infrastructure, welfare, education and so on. Civilian stuff. Instead it invested in arms, rockets, tunnels, bunkers and took a hefty cut of everything. The choice was made to prefer 'resistance' over civilians' well being.

 

The 7/10 attack, and expected Israeli response are just another symptom of the same (I'm not getting into the domestic political angle within Hamas now, even).

 

You seem to try and paint things with Israel as the sole responsible for all that's wrong  - that's not how reality is.

Hamas could have changed its stance? You have a very naive view of the situation. The reason it's Hamas in charge and not the PA is precisely because the PA was seen as collaborators with Israel as well as being corrupt. There are some excellent books out there, some written by Israeli Jews, that show how and why Palestinians feel this way. Maybe you should acquaint yourself with them

And you still ignore the fact of the blockade.

[Morch]

Just now, placeholder said:

Hamas could have changed its stance? You have a very naive view of the situation. The reason it's Hamas in charge and not the PA is precisely because the PA was seen as collaborators with Israel as well as being corrupt. There are some excellent books out there, some written by Israeli Jews, that show how and why Palestinians feel this way. Maybe you should acquaint yourself with them

And you still ignore the fact of the blockade.

Hamas's election victory had more to do with playing the PA-is-corrupt  card. The 'struggle' message was put on a relatively low burner during the campaign as to win more moderate votes.

 

If you think that an organization, a government, or a leadership cannot (or should not) change their policy even in the face of obvious disaster maybe you shouldn't be so surprised and enraged at Israeli government policies. The fact is that there are always choices, and when it suited Hamas's interests they displayed restraint and willingness to engage (especially with regard to economic issues). By making this claim, you essentially absolve the Hamas from any accountability to as to how things are. This is wrong.

 

I most definitely did not ignore the blockade - that was a major part of most posts I made. You, on the other hand, seem bent on denying (or minimizing)  any connection between Hamas actions and policies and the restrictions placed on the Gaza Strip. Before advising me to read books I probably have, perhaps concentrate on reading posts made in reply to yours.

 

 

[placnx]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

You are just deflecting now, and avoiding the issue.

 

Hamas could have changed its stance vs. Israel, could have kept it but avoid acting on it, or whatever. Choices carry consequences. Hamas could have given Israel the motivation to ease restrictions, and generally did just the opposite. Somehow you find that this is Israel's fault.

 

You can imagine what you like, but the fact is that crippled as it might be, the West Bank economy is still in a much better shape than the Gaza Strip's. If you wish to claim there's no significant differences, you're either being obstinate, clueless or an all-or-nothing person.

 

Similar concepts apply to the Egypt side of things as well.

 

And again - even with the blockade at place, Gaza's situation could have been better had the Hamas chosen to invest less in 'resistance' and more in developing infrastructure, welfare, education and so on. Civilian stuff. Instead it invested in arms, rockets, tunnels, bunkers and took a hefty cut of everything. The choice was made to prefer 'resistance' over civilians' well being.

 

The 7/10 attack, and expected Israeli response are just another symptom of the same (I'm not getting into the domestic political angle within Hamas now, even).

 

You seem to try and paint things with Israel as the sole responsible for all that's wrong  - that's not how reality is.

With 500+ checkpoints and settlers gobbling Area C, the West Bank is heading in the direction of Gaza. Just this week, I've just heard that four Palestinian villages have been depopulated, i.e. ethnically cleansed. For the past two years settlers assisted by IDF have been attacking villages and towns. When Palestinians resist, IDF steps in to shoot them.

 

The Gaza economy is non-functional due to the blockade, so it's no wonder that there is high unemployment. Gazans are forced to survive on aid and need 150 trucks per day in "normal" times.

[still kicking]

2 hours ago, placeholder said:

As far as I can tell, not one settler family has ever experienced the collective punishment inflicted on the Palestinians.

Absolutely, today I watched a documentary about the west bank and Gaza, Palestinian have to go through 5 check points just to buy food (if there is any) Automatic guns, and cameras everywhere. All Jewish settlers can go across the border without any problems but not Palestinians. Every day more Jewish settlers arrive and establish a new city from stolen land. I am not saying Hamas is ok don't get me wrong, but I feel the pain inflicted on the Palestine's.

[transam]

10 hours ago, placeholder said:

I'm going to go out on a limb here and and guess that this "Look, you don't Jew's, that's up to you"  is an accusation of anti-semitism.

 

If I'm right, then most likely what I'm seeing here is a case of doublethink. When Jewish people in the diaspora are murdered as a way of showing hatred for Israel, such actions are quite rightly denounced. After all, Israel is a country, not a religion, and just because a person happens to be Jewish in no way means that they are responsible for Israeli policy. Israel does not speak for all Jews.  But when Israel is criticized for its policies, that is somehow anti-Semitic. Try to keep in mind that Israel is a country, not a religion, and just because its leaders and most of its populace are Jewish, that doesn't mean that criticism of Israel is anti-Semitic. Mort Sahl once told a joke about an actor with politically unpopular views that it was possible to dislike her for herself. It's equally possible to dislike Israeli policy for itself.

 

As for the terrorist bit. we heard the same judgements pronounced against various ethnic groups that revolted against  oppressive regimes.   And it's true. Members of those communities committed horrible acts. That doesn't excuse what they did but denying that the various regimes didn't create the toxic conditions for such people to flourish is just self-righteous denialism.

Mr.Link man, here's one for you.............😬

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/hamas-militants-ate-familys-lunch-095623203.html

[Morch]

8 hours ago, placnx said:

With 500+ checkpoints and settlers gobbling Area C, the West Bank is heading in the direction of Gaza. Just this week, I've just heard that four Palestinian villages have been depopulated, i.e. ethnically cleansed. For the past two years settlers assisted by IDF have been attacking villages and towns. When Palestinians resist, IDF steps in to shoot them.

 

The Gaza economy is non-functional due to the blockade, so it's no wonder that there is high unemployment. Gazans are forced to survive on aid and need 150 trucks per day in "normal" times.

 

Hyperbole. The situation in the West Bank is not nearly the same as in the Gaza Strip. That you claim it's heading in the same direction doesn't make it so. What you've 'heard' (without providing support) is immaterial.

 

You can go on and on about the blockade. If you refuse to acknowledge the reason it is in place, then your comments are meaningless. Prior to the attack there were 20,000-30,000 Gazans working in Israel everyday.

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, placnx said:

It will be impossible to establish a Palestinian state in the West Bank without shrinking these settlements and dismantling the most egregious, such as Hebron. Settler rampages show that a lot of thought would have to go into stop them from being a danger to Palestinians. Or offending settlers would have to be banned from the West Bank; extraterritorial status of settlers should be limited so that crimes committed in the West Bank (against Palestinians) would fall under Palestinian law.

 

It will be a very heavy lift to achieve a viable Palestinian state.

Every israeli settlement in the west bank is illegal, ergo they should go to allow a Palestinian state. However, given the israelis will never agree to go voluntarily, seems israel will be oppressing the Palestinians for a very long time ( at least until the time America is no longer able or willing to protect them ) and brutalising their own youth. most of which have to serve in the military.

Perhaps WW3 will happen and then the situation will be resolved as not many of us may be around after.

[Morch]

8 hours ago, still kicking said:

Absolutely, today I watched a documentary about the west bank and Gaza, Palestinian have to go through 5 check points just to buy food (if there is any) Automatic guns, and cameras everywhere. All Jewish settlers can go across the border without any problems but not Palestinians. Every day more Jewish settlers arrive and establish a new city from stolen land. I am not saying Hamas is ok don't get me wrong, but I feel the pain inflicted on the Palestine's.

Not all Palestinians on the West Bank have to pass that many checkpoints for everyday stuff. That's simply not true. Also, doubt there's food shortage in the West Bank - again, something you add in without support. The Israelis can obviously cross the border to Israel as they do not normally pose a risk of carrying out terrorist attack, and, surprise - they are Israeli citizens. One can certainly criticize and object to the Israeli illegal settlement effort without getting carried away.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 hours ago, placnx said:

With 500+ checkpoints and settlers gobbling Area C, the West Bank is heading in the direction of Gaza. Just this week, I've just heard that four Palestinian villages have been depopulated, i.e. ethnically cleansed. For the past two years settlers assisted by IDF have been attacking villages and towns. When Palestinians resist, IDF steps in to shoot them.

 

The Gaza economy is non-functional due to the blockade, so it's no wonder that there is high unemployment. Gazans are forced to survive on aid and need 150 trucks per day in "normal" times.

IMO if most western people understood the conditions the Palestinians live under, I'm sure the situation would change, but I'm sure most just don't care that much to find out. I'm also pretty sure the western media isn't big on pointing it out.

[placeholder]

11 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

It's the knowledge you don't have. If you knew, you would just explain it. 

 

Link on brother, it's all you have, which again means you have nothing. 

This knowledge I have i acquired is through reading. I have shared some of that reading material with you. It may be that the material I've provided access to is too difficult for you to read.That's unfortunate, I suppose, but it is not incumbent upon me to remedy your deficiencies of comprehension.  However, if you need my tutoring services, perhaps we can come to some financial arrangement.

[Morch]

5 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Every israeli settlement in the west bank is illegal, ergo they should go to allow a Palestinian state. However, given the israelis will never agree to go voluntarily, seems israel will be oppressing the Palestinians for a very long time ( at least until the time America is no longer able or willing to protect them ) and brutalising their own youth. most of which have to serve in the military.

Perhaps WW3 will happen and then the situation will be resolved as not many of us may be around after.

People thought Israel will not retreat from the Sinai Peninsula. It did. People thought Israeli settlement will not be removed from the Gaza Strip. They were. Granted, the West Bank is a different level, so to speak - but wholesale denial of the possibility and precedent does not indicate much honesty or knowledge.

 

As usual, nothing in your post as to what the Palestinians ought to do to promote this, nothing about how they contribute to the ongoing situation, and of course, nothing about the brutalization of their own youths.

[Morch]

4 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

IMO if most western people understood the conditions the Palestinians live under, I'm sure the situation would change, but I'm sure most just don't care that much to find out. I'm also pretty sure the western media isn't big on pointing it out.

There's actually quite a lot of coverage. Much of it negative, as far as Israel is concerned. Interesting that when it suits you claim the world watches or some other nonsense, and on other times (see above) assert it does not. Make up your mind.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, transam said:

Mr.Link man, here's one for you.............😬

 

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/hamas-militants-ate-familys-lunch-095623203.html

And this addresses the points I've raised how exactly?

And here to reinforce the points I've raised is that notable Jewish American journalists, and, according apparently to your way of thinking, leading anti-Semite, Thomas Friedman of the New York Times:

 

Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake

"If Israel goes into Gaza and takes months to kill or capture every Hamas leader and soldier but does so while expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank — thereby making any two-state solution there with the more moderate Palestinian Authority impossible — there will be no legitimate Palestinian or Arab League or European or U.N. or NATO coalition that will ever be prepared to go into Gaza and take it off Israel’s hands.

There will be no one to extract Israel and no one to help Israel pay the cost of caring for more than two million Gazans — not if Israel is run by a government that thinks, and acts, as if it can justifiably exact its revenge on Hamas while unjustifiably building an apartheidlike society run by Jewish supremacists in the West Bank. That is a completely incoherent policy.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

 

Friedman goes on to note that settlers have attacked Palestinian villages and killed at least 7 Palestinians.

 

Palestinians under attack as Israeli settler violence surges in the West Bank

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67173344

[placeholder]

48 minutes ago, Morch said:

Not all Palestinians on the West Bank have to pass that many checkpoints for everyday stuff. That's simply not true. Also, doubt there's food shortage in the West Bank - again, something you add in without support. The Israelis can obviously cross the border to Israel as they do not normally pose a risk of carrying out terrorist attack, and, surprise - they are Israeli citizens. One can certainly criticize and object to the Israeli illegal settlement effort without getting carried away.

Not all? Vague much?  That could mean anything from 1 Palestinian to all Palestinians. You care to attach an actual percentage to that?

[Morch]

6 minutes ago, placeholder said:

Your claim of "not all" is so vague as to be useless. Are not multiple checkpoints a common feature of daily life for Palestinians?

Here's a link to an article about checkpoints. The number has actually been sharply on the increase:

 

Barriers to Movement are the Never Ending Normal for Palestinians

https://www.globalissues.org/news/2023/09/21/34808

Again with your pointless nitpicking? Doesn't seem like you had much issues with the wholesale generalization. If I was to say 'all Palestinians are...." you'd be all over that in a sec.

 

I did not deny the existence of checkpoints. I did not deny Palestinians in the West Bank face hardship and oppression.

I addressed a statement which was obviously over the top.

 

You, as you often do, take (or make) any opportunity to bicker about nonsense.

[placeholder]

1 hour ago, Morch said:

Again with your pointless nitpicking? Doesn't seem like you had much issues with the wholesale generalization. If I was to say 'all Palestinians are...." you'd be all over that in a sec.

 

I did not deny the existence of checkpoints. I did not deny Palestinians in the West Bank face hardship and oppression.

I addressed a statement which was obviously over the top.

 

You, as you often do, take (or make) any opportunity to bicker about nonsense.

I think this is the first time I've ever seen you even semi-acknowledge that Palestinians on the West Bank face hardship and oppression. Which is why I'd day your comments about checkpoints are the real nitpicking.

[placnx]

15 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

You say: That doesn't excuse what they did but denying that the various regimes didn't create the toxic conditions for such people to flourish is just self-righteous denialism.

 

You say it doesn't excuse it, but then go on to say it does excuse it. 

 

Palestine has been ruling itself for 15-20 years. What "toxic conditions" have caused these people to videotape themselves laughing while they kill and burn babies and gang-rape children? 

 

 

 

Two wrongs don't make a right is another way of expressing what @placeholder said. It is disingenuous to ignore the blockade in place since at least 2007, where Gazans have been kept in a state of near starvation and their economy cannot properly function.

 

The attack was an act of desperation provoked by the prospect of Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, as Netanyahu's obvious intent was to eliminate external opposition to the settler colonization of the West Bank while continuing the blockade of Gaza. Saudi Arabia was the author of the peace proposal in place since 2002, which was not compatible with the policy of filling Area C with settlements, so getting the Saudis to effectively sign off on existing Israeli policy would have meant abandoning their peace proposal.

 

This attack is in a sense a trap for the current ultra-Orthodox/Kahanist faction in the Israeli government as they seize the opportunity to increase their pogroms on the West Bank. There are too many witnesses with cameras. For now centrist Israelis are overcome with horror at these massacres of secular Israelis, so it will take a while for backlash to resume against the judicial "reform" agenda and the disproportional death and destruction in Gaza and the West Bank pogroms. In the meantime the world will have taken stock of massive war crimes and depopulation in Gaza, so Hamas probably anticipated that Israel would end up with Europe and most of the world against it, with only the US still supporting it, and with qualifications. Whether merely attacking military targets would have produced a sufficiently vehement reaction is debatable. That this attack may accelerate the end of the current Israeli government is probable.