Avdiivka about to fall ?

[RayC]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Unlike you I'm not discussing what "might have been" and "wouldn't it be great if such and such hadn't happened". I'm discussing what has happened and what needs to be done to end it.

 

Ukraine had the opportunity to save all the lives by negotiating, but Zelensky apparently preferred death and destruction.

 

What I have been doing is refuting your arguments, some of which are factually incorrect: However, we still return to the same point. You lay the blame for the war in Ukraine at the feet of Zelensky. I make the obvious point - which you still refuse to accept - that if there had been no invasion, then there would be no war (at least not on this scale).

 

You are either an appeaser and apologist for Putin or a supporter who considers his actions justifiable.

 

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

 

 

And ignore the implications and consequences of allowing a powerful, aggressive, expansionist state to do what it likes in the region unopposed.

 

Only in non NATO countries and Europe has been fighting for thousands of years, and will continue to do so. It's in their nature.

 

What does "Only in NATO countries" mean/ refer to in this context? 

 

Nation's/ Tribes have fought (probably) since Mankind has existed and will continue to do so ..... And?

 

I have no idea how this addresses my point and/or what point you trying to make?

 

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

Wasn't it true after WW2 that a powerful, aggressive, expansionist state did what it liked in the region, and despite being at their highest military power, the western allies did nothing to help the countries being taken over by the Soviets? So, don't tell me that we have to have WW3 to save them now.

 

 

So on the one hand, you criticise the West for not intervening to support (presumably?) Hungary and Czechoslovakia in the '50s and '60s but, on the other, you criticise the West for involving itself in this conflict!! 

 

[RayC]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

No. The other eastern non NATO countries you reference.

 

They don't need Americans "liberating" them and leaving their countries destroyed and economies ruined.

 

You seem very keen to determine how Central and East Europeans should live their lives.

 

So what they needed post-WW2 was to have their liberty and rights removed and to live under a murderous tyrant.

 

You seem to be in favour of something similar today.

[RayC]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You are apparently not aware of forum rule 7. My bolding.

 

7. Do not quote more than three multiple nested quotes. Only quote the person you are replying to, and only quote the relevant section that you are discussing.

 

Have a nice day.

 

Do you admire Shakib Al Hasan by any chance?

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/67333235

[tgw]

8 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

You are apparently not aware of forum rule 7. My bolding.

 

7. Do not quote more than three multiple nested quotes. Only quote the person you are replying to, and only quote the relevant section that you are discussing.

 

Have a nice day.

 

apparently you are ignorant of, among other things, the meaning of "nested quote".

 

educate yourself: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nested_quotation

 

that rule is probably left over from previous forum versions which allowed for quotation of nested quotations. the current version's UI prevents this anyway.

 

you would probably also benefit from educating yourself on the other subjects this thread is about.

Edited November 10, 2023 by tgw

[thaibeachlovers]

2 hours ago, RayC said:

You are either an appeaser and apologist for Putin or a supporter who considers his actions justifiable.

I don't have to look at garbage like that any more thanks to the ignore function. Bye.

[Wobblybob]

Just now, thaibeachlovers said:

I don't have to look at garbage like that any more thanks to the ignore function.

As Betty from Brighton said, "oh no, not another one"😂😂😂. I too believe that sensitive sam has me on "ignore" but it hasn't been confirmed yet. 🥳

[tgw]

Just now, Wobblybob said:

As Betty from Brighton said, "oh no, not another one"😂😂😂. I too believe that sensitive sam has me on "ignore" but it hasn't been confirmed yet. 🥳

 

I find it disturbing that people like this can put others on ignore and then continue to post their ignorant drivel without risk of being contradicted by the posters who know the most about the subject at hand.

[tgw]

8 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Had Ukraine negotiated would Putin have invaded? Please don't give me one of your usual talking points, as I will just ignore it, and stop making me the topic as I'm not. It's getting boring.

 

Ukraine has negotiated. 1993, Budapest Memorandum.

Russia took Ukraine's nuclear weapons in exchange of guaranteeing its independence and borders.

Edited November 10, 2023 by tgw

[Wobblybob]

Just now, tgw said:

 

I find it disturbing that people like this can put others on ignore and then continue to post their ignorant drivel without risk of being contradicted by the posters who know the most about the subject at hand.

Dare I ask, are you? He went into radio silence on the Ukraine thread when I dropped a truth bomb, he is offended by the truth.🥴

[tgw]

3 minutes ago, Wobblybob said:

Dare I ask, are you? He went into radio silence on the Ukraine thread when I dropped a truth bomb, he is offended by the truth.🥴

 

You should rephrase, I don't understand who your post is about

[RayC]

13 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I don't have to look at garbage like that any more thanks to the ignore function. Bye.

 

(Presumably, you won't read this post but, nevertheless, I'll make the point).

 

This was bound to happen: You realise that your argument is lost, but rather than either a) admit this or b) let the matter quietly drop (by not responding further), you make a public show of playing the 'Ignore' card.

 

Sad (but, of course, that's just my subjective opinion).

[Wobblybob]

1 minute ago, tgw said:

 

You should rephrase, I don't understand who your post is about

I asked you are you on ignore too?

[RayC]

15 minutes ago, Wobblybob said:

As Betty from Brighton said, "oh no, not another one"😂😂😂. I too believe that sensitive sam has me on "ignore" but it hasn't been confirmed yet. 🥳

 

Perhaps we could form a club and have the occasional 'get together'? I'll bring cake.

[tgw]

2 minutes ago, Wobblybob said:

I asked you are you on ignore too?

 

I guess I am, since I don't get replies to my arguments.

Or maybe he's just too overwhelmed by the undeniable truth that he finds it impossible to respond.

 

It's rather ironic, as he posts in this thread, and I am the threadstarter, but he ignores my posts, lol.

Edited November 10, 2023 by tgw

[RayC]

19 minutes ago, tgw said:

 

I guess I am, since I don't get replies to my arguments.

Or maybe he's just too overwhelmed by the undeniable truth that he finds it impossible to respond.

 

It's rather ironic, as he posts in this thread, and I am the threadstarter, but he ignores my posts, lol.

 

Given that he appears to have a fair few people on 'Ignore', he will probably end up talking to himself. Probably for the best.

[dddave]

On 10/26/2023 at 2:14 PM, tgw said:

So I wonder about why this isn't done, there must be reasons I don't understand.

Post removed by poster.

Edited November 10, 2023 by dddave

[tgw]

Almost a month later, the situation is now dire in Avdiivka.

 

Inspite of a losses ratio rumored to be as high as 1 to 10, Ruzzian orcs continue creeping forward. Avdiivka is now 80% encircled.

 

Regarding my previous interrogations about artillery support for Ukraine, I can only conclude that Ukraine must be low on ammo.

 

Anyway, it's not good news for Avdiivka.

[tgw]

and there it is:

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-soldier-stopped-shooting-on-russians-running-out-of-ammo-2023-12

 

I had been speculating about this for over a month already.

 

USA republicans - stop playing around and behave like statesmen !

SEND AMMO

[asf6]

On 11/10/2023 at 5:19 AM, tgw said:

 

I find it disturbing that people like this can put others on ignore and then continue to post their ignorant drivel without risk of being contradicted by the posters who know the most about the subject at hand.

You can still contradict posts by members who have you on ignore. They might not read your post but you can still contradict them. 

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, asf6 said:

You can still contradict posts by members who have you on ignore. They might not read your post but you can still contradict them. 

I think the poster you quoted is more upset that he knows his attacks won't be seen by the target of his attacks, than being able to contradict them.

 

If they don't want to be put on ignore they should stop the personal insults, and debate about the topic, not the poster.

[RayC]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

I think the poster you quoted is more upset that he knows his attacks won't be seen by the target of his attacks, than being able to contradict them.

 

If they don't want to be put on ignore they should stop the personal insults, and debate about the topic, not the poster.

 

I'm a member of your 'Ignore' club. I have never insulted you unless you believe that labelling you a 'Putjn apologist' is an insult.

 

Rather than make a big show of using the 'Ignore' card every time you realise your rationale doesn't add up, why don't simply quietly let the matter drop?

[billd766]

On 11/6/2023 at 8:06 PM, RayC said:

 

Surely the relative casualty rates must be a factor?

Weapons and ammunition are always easier and cheaper to replace that fully qualified and trained soldiers.

 

It all depends on who decides which is the attrition rate for soldiers. Defenders usually have an advantage of the ground to be fought over, IF they have been there long enough to prepare it.

 

By preparing it, I mean mining it, spotting artillery fire on specific points, reinforcing strong points, being prepared to fight in buildings that have been destroyed to rubble.

 

Tanks, AFVs and vehicles have problems moving when streets are blocked and you have no idea what is around the next corner.

 

If, for example, a tank has its tracks destroyed, it can still be used as an armoured pill box until it runs out of fuel or ammunition and the it simply becomes a very heavy road block, unless it can be recovered, not easy under fire, dragged out of the way and then recovered and repaired.

[thaibeachlovers]

Avdiivka about to fall ?

 

I guess we know the answer to that by now.

[tgw]

5 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Avdiivka about to fall ?

 

I guess we know the answer to that by now.

 

yup, correct.
even with a severe ammo shortage, Ukrainians are still able to defend Avdiivka.
so Avdiivka doesn't seem about to fall after all.

[beautifulthailand99]

The Pentagon's think tank the  Rand Corporation maps out a potential road to peace. If the US wills it then I can't see it not happening. They always sneak these out with little fanfare to help shape and inform the mainstream narrative. This follows on from another paper back in February that also talked about an armistice. The days of "by any means necessary" have long gone - neither side can win but both can cause enormous suffering on each other. The problem is at 4 times the size and with ammo, material and men running out Ukraine is majorly disadvantaged in an attritional war.

 

https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/2023/12/elements-of-an-eventual-russia-ukraine-armistice-and.html

 

This guy Zelenskiy's previous advisor is positioning himself for a pole position in a  post-Zelenskiy world. It is doubtful that with Z at the helm, a peace deal could be agreed and it remains to be seen if extreme nationalists will accept anything but continual war. There can be no doubt when the end comes it will be a vicious struggle for power in the post-war world.

 

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/zelensky-ex-spokesman-russia-president-2796641

 

But the prospective candidate says that he is challenging Zelensky as a patriot, accusing him of authoritarianism and mismanagement of the war.

“Zelensky tried to create a regime of ‘small-Putinism’,” Arestovych said. “He liked to play the role of hero in parliaments around the world. That time is over now… but he became a hostage of his own propaganda.

“This has become a big problem because he thinks not about the national interest but about his own position.”

 

The ex-spokesman is not alone in that assessment. Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv and former heavyweight boxing champion, recently warned: “At some point we will no longer be any different from Russia, where everything depends on the whim of one man.”

Ukrainian MP Oleksii Goncharenko told i that he agreed. “You shouldn’t forget that Zelensky was an actor and he wants to be the only actor on the stage,” he said.

 

Critics point to the treatment of General Valery Zaluzhny, the popular commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces, who gave an interview stating that the war had reached a stalemate. He was slapped down by Zelensky. Members of the president’s party called for his resignation. The general has reportedly been named as a witness in a probe into wartime failures that some analysts have interpreted as a warning.

 

 

Edited January 3 by beautifulthailand99

[thaibeachlovers]

Al Jazeera has just reported that Ukraine has given up Adviika to the Russians

That "I told you so" moment is getting closer. If they gave up Adviika which they spent so many lives to protect, it indicates a far more fundamental problem for Zelinsky.

Pity about all the lives lost and destruction on both sides, but IMO it never had to happen, and would not have happened if the US and Britain had kept their noses out of a problem which they didn't have to create.

If, as seems likely, it ends in negotiations, it's going to end in a black eye for Biden and Sunak; Sunak because he's not doing well, and Biden as it's an election year.

 

That was yesterday, but too soon to provide a link, which is now available, from an American source no less.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/17/world/europe/ukraine-avdiivka-withdraw-despair.html

Avdiivka, Longtime Stronghold for Ukraine, Falls to Russians

With Ukraine’s forces at risk of encirclement, the top military commander ordered a retreat. In startlingly candid accounts, soldiers described disarray and despair.

[thaibeachlovers]

On 12/27/2023 at 4:35 PM, thaibeachlovers said:

Avdiivka about to fall ?

 

I guess we know the answer to that by now.

We certainly do.

[kwonitoy]

Avdivka as a town is about as important as Bakmut strategically.

It is a place of massive losses for the invader army.

As one commentator put it, there's a hundred Avdivkas on the road to Kiev

 

 

https://www.voanews.com/a/declassified-us-intelligence-reveals-massive-russian-losses-in-ukraine/7395271.html

 

The assessment, parts of which were shared with VOA, estimates more than 13,000 Russian forces have been killed or wounded since Moscow launched its October offensive along the Avdiivka-Novopavlivka axis in eastern Ukraine.

 

200 tanks and 400 other armored vehicles were also claimed to have been lost. 

[retarius]

Has fallen. It had to, the city was the source of most of the shelling in the Donbass and responsible for killing 15000 Russian civilians since 2014. A centre for the nazi elements of Ukraine's armed forces. 

And something heartening for Mr Putin to announce to his nation on the 24th or 25th which is the second anniversary of the war.....but it seems to have been going on much longer. If only the Ukrainians had abided by the Minsk agreements, there would have been no need for war, but French and German leaders told us that the Minsk agreements were negotiated in bad faith and the objective was to buy time to build up Ukraine's military. But in war there are often no winners, and this conflict seems the same. Russia has kept its warm water port in Crimea out of US hands, but NATO is all over Ukraine, so Russia even if it keeps the newly acquired oblasts, hasn't won much; hundreds of thousands have lost their lives or had their lives blighted by the war, what with dead kids on both sides. Time for Ukraine to surrender and save what it has left, kick it lying, idiot President out in Ukraine and replace him with someone sane, and to kick the demented idiot president out of the US and replace him with someone whom is not a warmonger. 

[retarius]

I've just read the discussion which was pretty good until some one started with the insults. Good on you ThaiBeach. You have not been infected with Western Propaganda Disease (WPD) as so many of your detractors have. And I support your judicious use of the ignore function. With so many commenters blinded by WPD and getting their news exclusively from based western sources the ignore function is a necessity. It is refreshing to hear from an informed commenter who is knowledgeable and able to withstand the assault from the WPD sufferers.