A turning point in Myanmar as army suffers big losses

[CharlieH]

 

In a matter of days the military government in Myanmar has lost control of much of its border with China.

A co-ordinated attack by three ethnic insurgent armies in Shan State, supported by other armed groups opposing the government, has overrun dozens of military posts, and captured border crossings and the roads carrying most of the overland trade with China.

It is the most serious setback suffered by the junta since it seized power in February 2021. After two-and-half years of battling the armed uprising it provoked with its disastrous coup, the military is looking weak, and possibly beatable.

The government has responded with airstrikes and artillery bombardments, forcing thousands of people to leave their homes. But it has been unable to bring in reinforcements or recover the ground it has lost. Among hundreds of troops killed is believed to be the commander of government forces in northern Shan State, Brigadier General Aung Kyaw Lwin, the most senior officer killed in combat since the coup.

What makes this attack even more significant is that it marks the first time that the well-armed insurgents operating in Shan State have explicitly aligned themselves and their military operations with the wider campaign to overthrow the junta and restore democratic rule.

However, there are other factors at play. These three insurgent groups have long-held ambitions to expand the territory they hold. And crucially China, which normally acts as a restraining influence on all the groups along its border with Myanmar, has not prevented this operation from going ahead.

 

That is probably because of its frustration over the military government's inaction over the scam centres which have proliferated in Shan State. Thousands of Chinese citizens and other foreigners have been forced to work in these scam centres. The insurgents say one of their aims is to close them down.

 

FULL STORY

 

[thaibeachlovers]

That's a small chink of hope in an otherwise dismal situation.

I hope they succeed and lock every military man up for 50 years, and hang the top guys, after a trial of course.

[Tug]

I hope the Burmese people hunt down each and everyone of those murdering @ho+es and get their country back 

[heybruce]

The story illustrates how much influence China has in Myanmar.  As things now stand China will not allow any form of government in Myanmar that it doesn't approve of.

[John Drake]

China provides the military support for the government and controls the the ethnic militias fighting the government along the Chinese border. Where does this leave the ousted/arrested government, which is the only legitimate government there is?

[thaibeachlovers]

22 hours ago, John Drake said:

China provides the military support for the government and controls the the ethnic militias fighting the government along the Chinese border. Where does this leave the ousted/arrested government, which is the only legitimate government there is?

China must feel the elected government ( if any are left alive ) is of more benefit to them than a murderous criminal regime, else they would not have let the resistance off the leash.

I wish them well in their quest to destroy the military monsters.

I for one would prefer not needing to have court cases.

 

 

[John Drake]

1 hour ago, thaibeachlovers said:

China must feel the elected government ( if any are left alive ) is of more benefit to them than a murderous criminal regime, else they would not have let the resistance off the leash.

I wish them well in their quest to destroy the military monsters.

I for one would prefer not needing to have court cases.

 

 

 

It might be worth it to let the militias split from the legitimate government which is now under arrest. Let them form their own state. That would leave the rest of Myanmar independent. And the ethnic armies would soon get tired of China telling them what to do, so that would be a problem for Xi on his own doorstep. 

[heybruce]

19 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

China must feel the elected government ( if any are left alive ) is of more benefit to them than a murderous criminal regime, else they would not have let the resistance off the leash.

I wish them well in their quest to destroy the military monsters.

I for one would prefer not needing to have court cases.

I saw nothing in the article that indicates China has a preference for any side, so long as it can take advantage of the chaos.  I suspect China has no desire to share a border with a successful democratic government.

[tonbridgebrit]

The important thing is, is that Beijing will not send any of it's soldiers into Myanmar. Chinese soldiers entering Myanmar and firing their bullets at people will be disastrous for China and America.

And if we do see a new Myanmar government that is very friendly with China, America will likely step in. Washington will back whatever groups that are against a pro-Beijing Myanmar government.

What is a pro-Beijing government ?  This will be a government that will export lots of natural resources to China, and will allow a mountain of Chinese goods to be imported into Myanmar. As in, mobile phones, computer lap-tops, flat-screen tvs, etc, etc. And yes, a pro-Beijing Myanmar government will borrow money from China, and dish out big infra-structure contracts to Chinese companies. As in, railway lines, hydro-electric power stations, roads, etc, etc.

[tonbridgebrit]

18 hours ago, John Drake said:

 

It might be worth it to let the militias split from the legitimate government which is now under arrest. Let them form their own state. That would leave the rest of Myanmar independent. And the ethnic armies would soon get tired of China telling them what to do, so that would be a problem for Xi on his own doorstep. 

I doubt this will happen. Beijing will not be interested in Myanmar breaking up into two separate bits.  Beijing knows that causing Myanmar to split into different bits will weaken it's own position in keeping China as a single country.

Beijing would much rather have Myanmar staying together as a single unit, and encourage lots of trade between Myanmar and China.

[Morch]

3 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

The important thing is, is that Beijing will not send any of it's soldiers into Myanmar. Chinese soldiers entering Myanmar and firing their bullets at people will be disastrous for China and America.

And if we do see a new Myanmar government that is very friendly with China, America will likely step in. Washington will back whatever groups that are against a pro-Beijing Myanmar government.

What is a pro-Beijing government ?  This will be a government that will export lots of natural resources to China, and will allow a mountain of Chinese goods to be imported into Myanmar. As in, mobile phones, computer lap-tops, flat-screen tvs, etc, etc. And yes, a pro-Beijing Myanmar government will borrow money from China, and dish out big infra-structure contracts to Chinese companies. As in, railway lines, hydro-electric power stations, roads, etc, etc.

 

More PRC issued claptrap.

[placeholder]

13 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

The important thing is, is that Beijing will not send any of it's soldiers into Myanmar. Chinese soldiers entering Myanmar and firing their bullets at people will be disastrous for China and America.

And if we do see a new Myanmar government that is very friendly with China, America will likely step in. Washington will back whatever groups that are against a pro-Beijing Myanmar government.

What is a pro-Beijing government ?  This will be a government that will export lots of natural resources to China, and will allow a mountain of Chinese goods to be imported into Myanmar. As in, mobile phones, computer lap-tops, flat-screen tvs, etc, etc. And yes, a pro-Beijing Myanmar government will borrow money from China, and dish out big infra-structure contracts to Chinese companies. As in, railway lines, hydro-electric power stations, roads, etc, etc.

You mean like Laos did?

 

Laos is spiraling toward a debt crisis as China looms large

• Laos borrowed billions from President Xi Jinping’s administration to finance railways, highways and hydroelectric dams, which has ballooned public debt to over 100% of GDP.
• Combined with a currency crisis and soaring inflation, Laos is on the brink of economic collapse.
• Without a clear-cut debt reduction deal with China, Laos’ financial hardships are unlikely to ease, analysts warn.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/09/laos-is-spiraling-toward-a-debt-crisis-as-china-looms-large.html

 

Or Sri Lanka?

 

Sri Lanka hands over port to China to pay off debt
Hambantota port was signed over to Beijing on a 99-year lease because Sri Lanka cannot repay Chinese loans it took out to build the port in the first place

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/asia/sri-lanka-hands-over-port-to-china-to-pay-off-debt-1.684606

 

Lots of other examples out there, too.

 

Other countries and lending institutions look at the feasibility of a project before lending money. China lends money to corrupt governments regardless of the feasibility of projects. When the loans can't be repaid, China demands harsh concessions. It's called a debt trap.

[heybruce]

22 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

The important thing is, is that Beijing will not send any of it's soldiers into Myanmar. Chinese soldiers entering Myanmar and firing their bullets at people will be disastrous for China and America.

And if we do see a new Myanmar government that is very friendly with China, America will likely step in. Washington will back whatever groups that are against a pro-Beijing Myanmar government

What is a pro-Beijing government ?  This will be a government that will export lots of natural resources to China, and will allow a mountain of Chinese goods to be imported into Myanmar. As in, mobile phones, computer lap-tops, flat-screen tvs, etc, etc. And yes, a pro-Beijing Myanmar government will borrow money from China, and dish out big infra-structure contracts to Chinese companies. As in, railway lines, hydro-electric power stations, roads, etc, etc.

"Beijing will not send any of it's soldiers into Myanmar" but "Washington will back whatever groups that are against a pro-Beijing Myanmar government.Washington will back whatever groups that are against a pro-Beijing Myanmar government."

 

Total nonsense.  The dictatorship has always worked with China and China has always supported it, bought from it, invested in it and sold weapons to it.  Other than feeble protests against gross humanitarian abuses and lip service about democracy, what has the US done to or for Myanmar?

[tonbridgebrit]

On 11/14/2023 at 11:16 PM, heybruce said:

"Beijing will not send any of it's soldiers into Myanmar" but "Washington will back whatever groups that are against a pro-Beijing Myanmar government.Washington will back whatever groups that are against a pro-Beijing Myanmar government."

 

Total nonsense.  The dictatorship has always worked with China and China has always supported it, bought from it, invested in it and sold weapons to it.  Other than feeble protests against gross humanitarian abuses and lip service about democracy, what has the US done to or for Myanmar?

You want to talk about how Burma/Myanmar is fully connected to China ?   I suggest you look at a country that is next door to Myanmar, a country where the government has allowed a flood of Chinese tourists and Chinese manufactured goods to enter, a country that has allowed major infra-structure projects to be carried out by China, a country that the anti-China Brigade wants to call it a new name, the new name being "Chailand". 

The truth, for decades, the Myanmar government has carried out a policy of isolationism.  The Myanmar government does not like Washington, and they also don't like Beijing.  Hence, Myanmar has not been flooded by Chinese tourists, unlike Pattaya, Pattaya has been flooded with Chinese tourists.

So, how comes Washington, during the last four decades, why has Washington not given weapons to whatever anti-government rebels in Myanmar ?  You have to bear in mind the whole picture. Washington's track record in supporting whatever rebels in whatever country has been patchy or indeed, disastrous. Washington knows this. That's one reason why the US government has not got involved in Myanmar.

Supporting (actually, creating and supporting) the Contras in Nicaragua back in the 1980s. Arming and traing the Mujahadeen rebels in Afghanistan against the Russia/Communist government in Kabul. Backing the rebels in Libya against Gaddafi in Libya, and backing and arming the rebels in Syria. By the way, Assad in Syria is still there.  What does it all lead to ? Basically, a civil war in a country, and the civil war drags on. Would Myanmar today be a better place if the US government had of created and sponsored a civil war, going on for a decade ? Off-course not.

What's another reason, as to why Washington has not armed whatever rebels in Myanmar ?  Well, Washington understands that rebels should only be supported if they have a reasonable chance of success. In Myanmar's case, the government does have great strength. Actually, the cynics will say this. What if the Myanmar government does get removed ? All it means, is that, Myanmar becomes an action replay of Thailand.
Yes, Myanmar becomes a country flooded with Chinese tourists and importing a mountain of Chinese goods.

And why would Washington want that ? Well, Washington doesn't. Well, Washington is certainly not going to pay for, for Myanmar to become an almost Chinese economic colony.

[tonbridgebrit]

On 11/14/2023 at 1:49 PM, placeholder said:

You mean like Laos did?

 

 

Or Sri Lanka?

 

Sri Lanka hands over port to China to pay off debt
Hambantota port was signed over to Beijing on a 99-year lease because Sri Lanka cannot repay Chinese loans it took out to build the port in the first place

https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/asia/sri-lanka-hands-over-port-to-china-to-pay-off-debt-1.684606

 

Lots of other examples out there, too.

 

Other countries and lending institutions look at the feasibility of a project before lending money. China lends money to corrupt governments regardless of the feasibility of projects. When the loans can't be repaid, China demands harsh concessions. It's called a debt trap.

What's happening ?  China is simply carrying out a diluted version of what America and Europe did to the Third World back in the 1960s, 70s and 80s.  As in, give out aid and loans with strings attached.



https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lanka-still-debt-restructuring-talks-with-creditors-2023-10-11/

Above is a link from Reuters. Yes, correct, China is the biggest single creditor nation to Sri Lanka. But let's look at the details. From the report,  "Among bilateral creditors, Sri Lanka owed China $4.7 billion with debt to India standing at $1.74 billion. Japan, a part of the Paris Club group, was owed $2.68 billion. Sri Lanka has debt outstanding of $5.65 billion to the ADB and owed $3.88 billion to the World Bank."

So, India and Japan are also countries who have given loans to Sri Lanka. ADB is the Asian Development Bank. By the way, the reason why the Beijing government can hand out such big loans is because of the giant trade surplus that China has with the USA.  

[thaibeachlovers]

46 minutes ago, tonbridgebrit said:

By the way, the reason why the Beijing government can hand out such big loans is because of the giant trade surplus that China has with the USA.  

Indeed. IMO the only reason China has such influence and military might is that the USA and other western nations gave them the money to become so.

Another reason to dislike the 1% that exported all the real jobs to China, so they could get even richer exploiting poor Chinese.

[placeholder]

4 hours ago, tonbridgebrit said:

What's happening ?  China is simply carrying out a diluted version of what America and Europe did to the Third World back in the 1960s, 70s and 80s.  As in, give out aid and loans with strings attached.



https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lanka-still-debt-restructuring-talks-with-creditors-2023-10-11/

Above is a link from Reuters. Yes, correct, China is the biggest single creditor nation to Sri Lanka. But let's look at the details. From the report,  "Among bilateral creditors, Sri Lanka owed China $4.7 billion with debt to India standing at $1.74 billion. Japan, a part of the Paris Club group, was owed $2.68 billion. Sri Lanka has debt outstanding of $5.65 billion to the ADB and owed $3.88 billion to the World Bank."

So, India and Japan are also countries who have given loans to Sri Lanka. ADB is the Asian Development Bank. By the way, the reason why the Beijing government can hand out such big loans is because of the giant trade surplus that China has with the USA.  

The thing is, other countries turned down making loans for that project in Sri Lanka and elsewhere because they knew the government was deeply corrupt and that the project made no economic sense. To China, that Sri Lanka project made a lot of sense since it got them a huge chunk of land for a base in Sri Lanka. 

[Danderman123]

The Shan state is where there is great resistance to the current government.  Unlike the rest of Myanmar, the majority language in the Shan state is Tai (as opposed to Thai), and for a brief period during WWII, was part of Thailand.

 

It's possible that the Shan state will rejoin Thailand if it splits from Myanmar.

[KhaoNiaw]

53 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

It's possible that the Shan state will rejoin Thailand if it splits from Myanmar.

 

What evidence do you have for that rather odd claim?

[couchpotato]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

The Shan state is where there is great resistance to the current government.  Unlike the rest of Myanmar, the majority language in the Shan state is Tai (as opposed to Thai), and for a brief period during WWII, was part of Thailand.

 

It's possible that the Shan state will rejoin Thailand if it splits from Myanmar.

More likely China would annex it...next to their border and they love new territory.

[heybruce]

On 11/24/2023 at 1:22 AM, tonbridgebrit said:

You want to talk about how Burma/Myanmar is fully connected to China ?   I suggest you look at a country that is next door to Myanmar, a country where the government has allowed a flood of Chinese tourists and Chinese manufactured goods to enter, a country that has allowed major infra-structure projects to be carried out by China, a country that the anti-China Brigade wants to call it a new name, the new name being "Chailand". 

The truth, for decades, the Myanmar government has carried out a policy of isolationism.  The Myanmar government does not like Washington, and they also don't like Beijing.  Hence, Myanmar has not been flooded by Chinese tourists, unlike Pattaya, Pattaya has been flooded with Chinese tourists.

So, how comes Washington, during the last four decades, why has Washington not given weapons to whatever anti-government rebels in Myanmar ?  You have to bear in mind the whole picture. Washington's track record in supporting whatever rebels in whatever country has been patchy or indeed, disastrous. Washington knows this. That's one reason why the US government has not got involved in Myanmar.

Supporting (actually, creating and supporting) the Contras in Nicaragua back in the 1980s. Arming and traing the Mujahadeen rebels in Afghanistan against the Russia/Communist government in Kabul. Backing the rebels in Libya against Gaddafi in Libya, and backing and arming the rebels in Syria. By the way, Assad in Syria is still there.  What does it all lead to ? Basically, a civil war in a country, and the civil war drags on. Would Myanmar today be a better place if the US government had of created and sponsored a civil war, going on for a decade ? Off-course not.

What's another reason, as to why Washington has not armed whatever rebels in Myanmar ?  Well, Washington understands that rebels should only be supported if they have a reasonable chance of success. In Myanmar's case, the government does have great strength. Actually, the cynics will say this. What if the Myanmar government does get removed ? All it means, is that, Myanmar becomes an action replay of Thailand.
Yes, Myanmar becomes a country flooded with Chinese tourists and importing a mountain of Chinese goods.

And why would Washington want that ? Well, Washington doesn't. Well, Washington is certainly not going to pay for, for Myanmar to become an almost Chinese economic colony.

 

A lot of irrelevant whattaboutism.  I'll focus on the only pertinent part:

 

"The Myanmar government does not like Washington, and they also don't like Beijing.  Hence, Myanmar has not been flooded by Chinese tourists, unlike Pattaya, Pattaya has been flooded with Chinese tourists."

 

The second part is easy:  How many tourists of any nationality visit a country in an active civil war.

 

The Myanmar generals definitely like both China and Russia. 

 

"The report, which used trade data and spanned more than 50 pages, listed $406 million in sales from Russian entities and $267 million from China, including some state-owned companies."

....

"In response to a request for comment from CNN, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the special rapporteur of going “beyond his own authorization to smear normal military trade of sovereign countries without warrant, distorting facts and confusing the public.”"  https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/18/world/un-myanmar-report-military-junta-deadly-arms-sales-russia-china-intl-hnk/index.html

 

Is the US selling arms to Myanmar?

[thaibeachlovers]

On 11/27/2023 at 4:17 AM, KhaoNiaw said:

 

What evidence do you have for that rather odd claim?

Small landlocked states need to be at least aligned with a larger state if they want to be viable. Thailand would be the best option.

[KhaoNiaw]

20 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Small landlocked states need to be at least aligned with a larger state if they want to be viable. Thailand would be the best option.

 

Considering these rebel groups are receiving arms and support from the Chinese government in their current attacks, I wouldn't mind betting who they would align themselves with.   

[tonbridgebrit]

On 11/29/2023 at 4:24 PM, KhaoNiaw said:

 

Considering these rebel groups are receiving arms and support from the Chinese government in their current attacks, I wouldn't mind betting who they would align themselves with.   

And if it was Washington backing the rebels, the rebels would be aligned with Washington.

It's good that America has not backed the rebels, or any rebels at all. Washington usually makes the situation worse if it gets involved.

[novacova]

Chinese mouthpiece Global Times: Chinese military 'highly concerned' over situation in northern Myanmar: defense ministry

The Chinese military will be prepared for all kinds of possible emergencies that might occur along the China-Myanmar border due to the militants, who operating in northern Myanmar, on the border with China.

A Chinese defense ministry spokesperson has urged all relevant parties to stop the fighting in northern Myanmar as soon as possible and resolve differences through dialogue. 

 

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202312/1302840.shtml