Investors plight.

[swissie]

It's always the same:

If an investment goes well, I regret that I have only invested so little in it. (leading to self flagellation for days).

If an investment goes not so well, I regret that I invested so much in it. (Leading to self flagellation for days).

With the result that I have reason to self-flagellate constantly. My back is always full of scars. My Doctor does not belive my "investment story". He says that I and my lady are not the only ones that like "kinky sex". Ahhhhhhh.....

[1FinickyOne]

That's the way of investments - always a reason to kick yourself... try and relax and enjoy the ones that go well.. 

[Celsius]

Makes senz

[Keeps]

I personally find the disposal of my "losers" the most difficult part of investing. It's like you need to admit you made a mistake in that particular investment. The need to hang on until it bounces back or breaks even or kidding yourself that the dividends are masking the losses.

 

Luckily, I don't have too many of these but happy to admit I have some. Most of us see no problem in taking some profit from our "winners" rather than letting the full amount ride. Why the shame then in crystallising a loss now and again? That investment that is showing a 25% loss could be working profitably for you elsewhere and make up the shortfall in a reasonable amount of time. 

 

I never berate myself for investing too little or too much in any one investment. I ensure that I never have more than 5% of capital in any one fund/share. If a "winner" starts to exceed that amount then I mostly trim back and reinvest in a "lagger" (as long as it is still a sound investment choice) often at an attractive price. 

[QuantumQuandry]

I find that having a detailed game plan before you buy anything helps avoid this.

 

I know how much I have to invest in different segments, how much I will risk and a set of rules for getting in and out.

 

Whether it goes well or it goes poorly, I have a plan and I commit to it before buying anything.

[swissie]

45 minutes ago, Keeps said:

I personally find the disposal of my "losers" the most difficult part of investing. It's like you need to admit you made a mistake in that particular investment. The need to hang on until it bounces back or breaks even or kidding yourself that the dividends are masking the losses.

 

Luckily, I don't have too many of these but happy to admit I have some. Most of us see no problem in taking some profit from our "winners" rather than letting the full amount ride. Why the shame then in crystallising a loss now and again? That investment that is showing a 25% loss could be working profitably for you elsewhere and make up the shortfall in a reasonable amount of time. 

 

I never berate myself for investing too little or too much in any one investment. I ensure that I never have more than 5% of capital in any one fund/share. If a "winner" starts to exceed that amount then I mostly trim back and reinvest in a "lagger" (as long as it is still a sound investment choice) often at an attractive price. 

Grrr. "Let your profits run and cut your losses" comes to mind. Or: Buy when everyone is selling and vice versa. Easy. So how come we are not all millionaires? Because "timing" was an invention of the devil.

[save the frogs]

1 hour ago, swissie said:

If an investment goes well, I regret that I have only invested so little in it. (leading to self flagellation for days).

If an investment goes not so well, I regret that I invested so much in it. (Leading to self flagellation for days).

Because stock market is not investing. It's gambling.

 

And that is the nature of gambling. 

 

And they know they have you hooked and keep you coming back for more, win or lose. 

 

 

[Keeps]

26 minutes ago, save the frogs said:

Because stock market is not investing. It's gambling.

 

And that is the nature of gambling. 

 

And they know they have you hooked and keep you coming back for more, win or lose. 

 

 

Totally disagree. Long term investing is exactly that, investing. Yes, there can be up's and downs but over any, say, 10 year period it is almost certain you will show a profit based on a balanced, diversified portfolio. Certainly more than holding cash would return, even with the current attractive interest rates. We are not talking day trading here - that certainly is gambling.

 

What would your interpretation of an investment be? Don't say bricks and mortar as the value of that can also fluctuate over a given period. Not that I'm saying Property is not a sound investment long term.

 

Will be interested to know your definition of an investment.

[swissie]

26 minutes ago, save the frogs said:

Because stock market is not investing. It's gambling.

 

And that is the nature of gambling. 

 

And they know they have you hooked and keep you coming back for more, win or lose. 

 

 

Basically I agree. But lo and behold, there is an "investment-industry", telling investors what to do with their money. 10 thousand of "investment advisors" in the city of London, on Wall street etc etc etc.

 

Comes to mind: "Look at all the yachts of investment advisers. But where are the yachts of their customers?"

[Prubangboy]

I'm value-dividend. So selling is rare. If they don't raise the div for 2 years, it's time to look elsewhere.

 

But if it's a high yielder throwing off 5-8%, it can def blunder along for a while.

 

 

[swissie]

8 minutes ago, Keeps said:

Totally disagree. Long term investing is exactly that, investing. Yes, there can be up's and downs but over any, say, 10 year period it is almost certain you will show a profit based on a balanced, diversified portfolio. Certainly more than holding cash would return, even with the current attractive interest rates. We are not talking day trading here - that certainly is gambling.

 

What would your interpretation of an investment be? Don't say bricks and mortar as the value of that can also fluctuate over a given period. Not that I'm saying Property is not a sound investment long term.

 

Will be interested to know your definition of an investment.

Will be interested to know your definition of an investment.

 

Perhaps I can help. An investment is something that you buy for 1$, hoping to sell the same thing to a greater fool for 1.50$.

[Keeps]

6 minutes ago, Prubangboy said:

I'm value-dividend. So selling is rare. If they don't raise the div for 2 years, it's time to look elsewhere.

 

But if it's a high yielder throwing off 5-8%, it can def blunder along for a while.

 

 

Same here. In my younger years I was a growth investor. Over the last couple of years I have realised some large profits from holding growth funds for many years and have reinvested in UK based financials paying dividends of 8-10% which now provide me with an income. I still maintain holdings in growth areas but am rebalancing the portfolio to provide a growing income.

[Prubangboy]

If they can raise the div above inflation, and will, and have, then a stock bought at about 4.5% yield or a muni ETF in that range is as good as life gets.

 

Pension funds and endowments are all buying these same stocks -as are the income elf's- so they're not so volatile.

 

95% of retirees should be buying about 10% of income stocks. Treat them as bonds that (hopefully) keep up with inflation.

[swissie]

High Dividends come in 2 ways. Traditionally, Utilities, Beer brewers and other very basic industries with not much "upward potential" come to mind. Might as well buy their bonds.

Have looked at other "high yield " stocks. Have found out that 1/3rd of them can not maintain their dividends if an economic downturn should occur.

- Dividends can be cut. As fast as your "honey" tells you:"I dont love you anymore".

[Fat is a type of crazy]

Delete

[save the frogs]

4 hours ago, swissie said:

Comes to mind: "Look at all the yachts of investment advisers. But where are the yachts of their customers?"

 

I thought I typed "if you want to get rich, become a financial adviser" I guess I forgot to add it at the end of my last post, but that's exactly right. 

 

[save the frogs]

4 hours ago, Keeps said:

Will be interested to know your definition of an investment.

I never got wealthy with investing. I am hardly an expert and will not give out investment advice. 

I simply don't trust the stock market. 

I believe most people over a certain age should probably stop risking their money in the markets and stick with GICs.

 

[TorquayFan]

I've been up to my neck in AIM cancer vaccine company Scancell for 12 years now but as their data and trials seem to substantially improve SoC on Stage 3/4 metastatic melanoma, and they have 4 platforms and patents to die for, I'm still living in hopes, but at a persisting 30% loss!

 

Never mind, a swift tenfer will put that right. After this investment, (if the wait EVER ends), never ever again. GLA

[Mike Lister]

6 hours ago, QuantumQuandry said:

I find that having a detailed game plan before you buy anything helps avoid this.

 

I know how much I have to invest in different segments, how much I will risk and a set of rules for getting in and out.

 

Whether it goes well or it goes poorly, I have a plan and I commit to it before buying anything.

I agree, it also helps to understand what level of ROI is acceptable, rather than merely hoping for a large amount.

 

Understanding your own rules for when to sell a losing fund or take profit on a winning fund is important, just because "buy and hold" is what some people think you're supposed to do. doesn't mean it's the right thing to do. If markets are heading down and a fund turns negative by 5%, it's cheap and easy enough to switch into something else.  

 

 

 

[gamb00ler]

18 hours ago, save the frogs said:

Because stock market is not investing. It's gambling.

 

And that is the nature of gambling.

Is that Warren Buffet guy just one lucky gambler?  NOT!

 

In his early years he had a significant edge over the majority of stock owners.... not so much the last few years as his competitors closed the gap.

 

 

[sirineou]

1 minute ago, gamb00ler said:

Is that Warren Buffet guy just one lucky gambler?  NOT!

 

In his early years he had a significant edge over the majority of stock owners.... not so much the last few years as his competitors closed the gap.

 

 

Aside from being an astute investor and a bit of luck, he is a great salesman and has created a brand of trust.

He reached critical mass early and as such  opportunity flows to him rather than had to be aggressively pursued. 

[save the frogs]

11 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

Is that Warren Buffet guy just one lucky gambler?  NOT!

 

How can you prove how wealthy he is? Have you seen his bank account? 

How do you know exactly how he earned his money? Have you been following him around? 

 

Maybe the real way he made money is, as another poster alluded to in a previous post, by being a fund manager. Which is essentially just taking a percentage of people's savings whether the stock goes up or down. 

 

The media can and usually does lie about anything. 

 

Here's a conspiracy for you. Maybe he's promoted in the media to make everyone think they can get rich in the markets so millions of people can keep pumping their money in the markets. 

 

 

 

[noobexpat]

7 hours ago, save the frogs said:

 

How can you prove how wealthy he is? Have you seen his bank account? 

How do you know exactly how he earned his money? Have you been following him around? 

 

Maybe the real way he made money is, as another poster alluded to in a previous post, by being a fund manager. Which is essentially just taking a percentage of people's savings whether the stock goes up or down. 

 

The media can and usually does lie about anything. 

 

Here's a conspiracy for you. Maybe he's promoted in the media to make everyone think they can get rich in the markets so millions of people can keep pumping their money in the markets. 

 

This is the mentality of people who never made any free money from the stockmarket. Suddenly everything is a conspiracy.

 

Its so easy to make money from it - you put a lot in, you leave it a long time and never sell (just draw down).

[Mike Lister]

Anybody care to crystal ball gaze and anticipate how and when this current surge will end? 

 

I was playing a defensive game, which I suspect many others were also, the current upturn took me by surprise because there's been so many bull traps in the past year. Yet all the market commentators have revised their year end targets for the S&P, most to over 5,000 (it's 4,700 currently and down 1.5% overnight). I think 5,200 is fantasy, valuations were already very high. I suspect the markets are oversold and will fall back, there's no justification for 5,200, even if rates do start to fall at start 2Q.

 

All the economic forecasts are that Asian countries GDP will outstrip those in the West plus Chinese shares are very cheap right now, that will certainly change at some point.

[gamb00ler]

On 12/19/2023 at 7:55 PM, sirineou said:

Aside from being an astute investor and a bit of luck, he is a great salesman and has created a brand of trust.

He reached critical mass early and as such  opportunity flows to him rather than had to be aggressively pursued. 

It's pretty funny that you consider him a salesman..... can you point us to any video clips of his pitches?  Surely someone has captured video evidence of his great pitches?

 

As for opportunities flowing to him.... I think it's much more likely that he just finds opportunities/good value before others.  How does that illustrate "flowing to him"?

[gamb00ler]

On 12/20/2023 at 7:01 AM, save the frogs said:

Maybe the real way he made money is, as another poster alluded to in a previous post, by being a fund manager. Which is essentially just taking a percentage of people's savings whether the stock goes up or down.

People can conjure up truly amazing things out of envy and lack of success.

Buffet has never been a fund manager.  He's the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a conglomerate, earns 100K/year in salary and gives 50% of that back to the company.  He hasn't had a raise in 40 years.  But of course you don't believe the public filings that publicly traded companies must produce... especially since you are unlikely to have ever read a single one.

[StayinThailand2much]

On 12/19/2023 at 1:09 AM, save the frogs said:

Because stock market is not investing. It's gambling.

 

And that is the nature of gambling. 

 

And they know they have you hooked and keep you coming back for more, win or lose. 

 

The professional investors and insiders make profits, while the amateur investors are always behind, effectively losing out long-term...

[save the frogs]

2 hours ago, StayinThailand2much said:

 

The professional investors and insiders make profits, while the amateur investors are always behind, effectively losing out long-term...

exactly, maybe if you do it 60 hours a week for years and years, you might learn the tricks and make serious money ...

the average person who has a job and thinks he can get rich on the side in the stock market is fooling themselves. 

[save the frogs]

2 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

People can conjure up truly amazing things out of envy and lack of success.

Buffet has never been a fund manager.  He's the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, a conglomerate, earns 100K/year in salary and gives 50% of that back to the company.  He hasn't had a raise in 40 years.  But of course you don't believe the public filings that publicly traded companies must produce... especially since you are unlikely to have ever read a single one.

 

Sorry, not exactly sure what Buffet is doing. It's too complex and way over my head. And I cannot trust every single piece of information about him I read in the news. There's stuff you're not told, so it's hard to know exactly what he's doing.

 

But with 1 billion people investing in stocks, you can only name one guy who got rich? 

 

[sirineou]

3 hours ago, gamb00ler said:

It's pretty funny that you consider him a salesman..... can you point us to any video clips of his pitches?  Surely someone has captured video evidence of his great pitches?

 

As for opportunities flowing to him.... I think it's much more likely that he just finds opportunities/good value before others.  How does that illustrate "flowing to him"?

IMO You have a mistaken  idea of what a 'salesman is" . I am afraid you are equation a salesman with a pitchman.A Pich men is not a sales person he is really a con artist.

In fact we are all in sales, some sell products some sell ideas.  When you are interviewing for a job. you are selling the idea that you are the best person for the job, or even when you are trying to get in some young ladies pans, We are all always engaging in the  art of the deal. but some are con artists and some are salesman. there is a difference. 

Both of the concepts I introduced in my original post are , business 101

Being a good salesman does not mean an overt pitch, in fact such thing would be amateurish .

a sales  technique has failed if it recognised as such. 

  Buffet  has developed a brand "The oracle of Omaha"  and has cultivated such brand . 

Not taking anything away from him. He worked hard and eventually reached a level of "Critical mass" 

where instead of actively trying to identify and pursue opportunities. Opportunities find you .

    Again not taking anything away from him. 

He still has to evaluate these opportunities and approve or deny. 

    But remember everything is sales, even when you are trying to get laid you are selling the concept of you as a desirable partner.

 The art of the sale is not something you are born with, some are natural salesmen but everyone else can benefit from a few sales seminars. There are proven techniques and concepts everyone needs to know not only so that they can apply themselves, but also recognise when they are directed at them.

So is Buffet a great salesmen?  

"The wisdom of Warren Buffet extends beyond the stock market. Buffett is a master deal maker. If there is one person a CEO could call to help them close a critical deal, Warren Buffett would be on the top of most lists "

https://www.janek.com/blog/sales-lessons-from-warren-buffett/