US and UK hint at military action after largest Houthi attack in Red Sea

[Morch]

4 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Could also be simpler than that. Perhaps ships with israeli connections have ceased trying to transit through the Red Sea.

 

@thaibeachlovers

 

In essence, you're alright with this so long as it fits your politics.

But if it's allowed now, what's to stop the Houthis from doing the same whenever they have issues (real or otherwise) with whichever country?

[RayC]

6 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Could also be simpler than that. Perhaps ships with israeli connections have ceased trying to transit through the Red Sea.

 

All shipments to Israel from the Indian sub-continent, SE Asia and Australasia go via the Red Sea. You'd have suppliers take a 8000+km detour around Africa and the Mediterranean Sea in order to pacify a terrorist group.

 

'Simple' is one word for that suggestion.

[Hawaiian]

7 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Could also be simpler than that. Perhaps ships with israeli connections have ceased trying to transit through the Red Sea.

Maybe you could find out by sailing a ship flying the Israeli flag through the Red Sea.  Any other volunteers?

Edited January 15 by Hawaiian
Correction

[placeholder]

8 hours ago, Hawaiian said:

The U.S. has stepped up its efforts to halt revenues supporting the Houthi attacks by issuing new sanctions, some with connections to Iran. And as far as the mullahs go, they know a direct confrontation with the U.S. would be a disaster for Iran.

So it is in their best interests to stop the attacks on shipping.  If Iran refuses to replenish the Houthi arsenal then it will be just a matter of time before they run out of steam.

China, in the meantime, is does not want to see a full-on regional conflict since it will certainly curtail their oil imports from the Middle East.  The Chinese are already having a hard time meeting electrical power needs and are turning more and more to coal.

As for issuing new sanctions, are there any serious ones left for the US to invoke? After the previous administration not only pulled out of the nuclear agreement with Iran, but made it virtually impossible for any business interests in the West to legitimately do business with Iran, they pretty much removed all incentives for Iran to cooperate with the west. And once the agreement fell apart, it vitiated the status of the moderates in the Iranian government who had staked their hopes and reputations on the agreement.

As for China, it's not so much about imports as it is about exports. China's economy is hugely reliant on exports to the west. Its economy is already in big trouble. A crimp in its exports would be especially damaging now.

[Danderman123]

US fighter aircraft shot down an anti-ship cruise missile fired at a Navy destroyer in the Red Sea from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen on Sunday. No injuries or damage were reported.

 

Isolated attacks are probably the future of this conflict. I don't think that carrier based fighter aircraft have counter-battery fire capability. So, if a local Houthi commander wheels out a ballistic missile and fires it, he won't be bombed, DoD would likely just hit a random target in response.

 

[Hawaiian]

1 hour ago, placeholder said:

As for issuing new sanctions, are there any serious ones left for the US to invoke? After the previous administration not only pulled out of the nuclear agreement with Iran, but made it virtually impossible for any business interests in the West to legitimately do business with Iran, they pretty much removed all incentives for Iran to cooperate with the west. And once the agreement fell apart, it vitiated the status of the moderates in the Iranian government who had staked their hopes and reputations on the agreement.

As for China, it's not so much about imports as it is about exports. China's economy is hugely reliant on exports to the west. Its economy is already in big trouble. A crimp in its exports would be especially damaging now.

If China were to lose its Middle Eastern oil there might not be much energy left to produce sorely needed exports. Rather doubt it if Russian oil could make up the loss.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1310953/oil-imports-by-country-china/

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-China-Overly-Reliant-On-Middle-Easter-Oil.html

I mentioned sanctions on Yemen, not Iran, albeit some may be tied to Iran.  The U.S. is imposing sanctions on the Houthi's key financiers. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Hawaiian]

12 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

US fighter aircraft shot down an anti-ship cruise missile fired at a Navy destroyer in the Red Sea from a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen on Sunday. No injuries or damage were reported.

 

Isolated attacks are probably the future of this conflict. I don't think that carrier based fighter aircraft have counter-battery fire capability. So, if a local Houthi commander wheels out a ballistic missile and fires it, he won't be bombed, DoD would likely just hit a random target in response.

 

Not yet.  Supposedly the U.S. Navy is in the final stages of testing their newly developed counter-battery fire system. 

[Bkk Brian]

That's exactly what they are, get them on the list.

 

Britain urged to designate Houthi rebels as terrorists

The Houthis, who are trained and funded by the IRGC, the Iranian regime’s military wing, declared war on Israel after the October 7 attacks.
Yesterday they published videos of training exercises including storming Israeli settlements, much like Hamas in Gaza. The Houthis have in the past been accused of training child soldiers and using civilians as human shields against airstrikes.

https://archive.ph/HjPxx

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/01/14/britain-urged-to-proscribe-houthi-rebels-as-terrorists/

[Danderman123]

Another ship was hit today.

 

A few years back, I sailed by Yemen, and took a photo of the Red Sea coast.

 

[thaibeachlovers]

23 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

Why aren't the Houthis lobbing missiles at foreign warships in the Red Sea?

Why would they? Are they israeli warships? Did israel even join the coalition?

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Why would they? Are they israeli warships? Did israel even join the coalition?

what's your point?

 

The Houthis seem reduced to pinprick attacks now. They may not have intelligence capabilities to know who they are attacking.

 

Bottom line: randomly attacking international shipping is for idiots.

[Hawaiian]

2 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Why would they? Are they israeli warships? Did israel even join the coalition?

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna133909

[placeholder]

3 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

what's your point?

 

The Houthis seem reduced to pinprick attacks now. They may not have intelligence capabilities to know who they are attacking.

 

Bottom line: randomly attacking international shipping is for idiots.

Depends on what the goal is. Why do you think the Houthis are attacking ships?

[Danderman123]

5 hours ago, placeholder said:

Depends on what the goal is. Why do you think the Houthis are attacking ships?

My guess is that Iran wants to drive up the price of oil, and is urging the Houthis to help them.

[thaibeachlovers]

11 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

what's your point?

 

The Houthis seem reduced to pinprick attacks now. They may not have intelligence capabilities to know who they are attacking.

 

Bottom line: randomly attacking international shipping is for idiots.

Well, they attacked an American ship, but that is expected after America bombed them. The UK can also expect retaliation. So much for not wanting to expand the Gaza war.

 

Isn't there an on line site that tracks all the ships in the whole world? I imagine there would be.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, Danderman123 said:

My guess is that Iran wants to drive up the price of oil, and is urging the Houthis to help them.

So they reportedly attacked a container ship. That's not doing much for your theory, is it?

[Hawaiian]

16 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

So they reportedly attacked a container ship. That's not doing much for your theory, is it?

Not according to this: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/A-Houthi-Retaliation-Could-Send-Oil-Prices-Soaring.html

[Danderman123]

19 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Well, they attacked an American ship, but that is expected after America bombed them. The UK can also expect retaliation. So much for not wanting to expand the Gaza war.

 

Isn't there an on line site that tracks all the ships in the whole world? I imagine there would be.

There is a marine tracking system called AIS, which is used for tracking ships. I suspect ships passing near Yemen turn off their AIS.

 

This raises the question of how the Houthis are tracking ships over the horizon.

[Danderman123]

19 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Well, they attacked an American ship, but that is expected after America bombed them. The UK can also expect retaliation. So much for not wanting to expand the Gaza war.

 

Isn't there an on line site that tracks all the ships in the whole world? I imagine there would be.

There is a marine tracking system called AIS, which is used for tracking ships. I suspect ships passing near Yemen turn off their AIS.

 

This raises the question of how the Houthis are tracking ships over the horizon.

[Danderman123]

27 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

So they reportedly attacked a container ship. That's not doing much for your theory, is it?

You seem unaware of maritime insurance costs.

[scottiejohn]

16 minutes ago, Danderman123 said:

This raises the question of how the Houthis are tracking ships over the horizon.

Info from the Iranian Spy Satellite perhaps and a few other sources!

 

Khayyam satellite - Wikipedia

Edited January 16 by scottiejohn
li

[placeholder]

“The Houthis may well calculate that, having withstood seven years of Saudi aerial bombardment over the course of the Yemeni civil war, it’s unlikely that a U.S. air assault on Yemeni targets would inflict more substantial damage or that any damage to its equipment or facilities could not be quickly repaired or replaced,” observed Gerald Feierstein, a former U.S. ambassador in Yemen.

“Moreover, a U.S. (or other) attack on Houthi military targets would validate, from the Houthi perspective, their propaganda that they are fighting on the front lines in support of Palestinians and that their operations are succeeding in threatening U.S. and allied interests,” he added.

Indeed, the Gaza war and its repercussions, noted the International Crisis Group, have “provided the Houthis with an opportunity to deflect mounting public pressure over their governance practices in the areas under their control, and enabled them to quell opposition to their rule by arresting opponents in those areas on charges of collusion with Israel and the U.S.”

https://archive.ph/Cew6z

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/16/houthi-yemen-red-sea-strikes-what-gained-won/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_todayworld&utm_campaign=wp_todays_worldview

[Danderman123]

7 hours ago, scottiejohn said:

Info from the Iranian Spy Satellite perhaps and a few other sources!

 

Khayyam satellite - Wikipedia

This satellite is insufficient to track ships passing through a small area. The satellite is in a sun-sychronous orbit, which means it follows the terminator between sunrise/sunset (or vice versa). So if a ship is traveling at night, or mid-day, the satellite can't see it.

 

I'm not sure if the Iranians have a global tracking ground station network, and if not, even if the satellite were passing over a ship in the Red Sea, Iran might not know.

 

Iran could put a ground station in Yemen, but the US would probably knock that out first.

 

Update: Iran says that it inly has ground stations in Iran, and that the satellite is only used over Iran.

 

Edited January 16 by Danderman123

[Hawaiian]

4 hours ago, placeholder said:

“The Houthis may well calculate that, having withstood seven years of Saudi aerial bombardment over the course of the Yemeni civil war, it’s unlikely that a U.S. air assault on Yemeni targets would inflict more substantial damage or that any damage to its equipment or facilities could not be quickly repaired or replaced,” observed Gerald Feierstein, a former U.S. ambassador in Yemen.

“Moreover, a U.S. (or other) attack on Houthi military targets would validate, from the Houthi perspective, their propaganda that they are fighting on the front lines in support of Palestinians and that their operations are succeeding in threatening U.S. and allied interests,” he added.

Indeed, the Gaza war and its repercussions, noted the International Crisis Group, have “provided the Houthis with an opportunity to deflect mounting public pressure over their governance practices in the areas under their control, and enabled them to quell opposition to their rule by arresting opponents in those areas on charges of collusion with Israel and the U.S.”

https://archive.ph/Cew6z

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/01/16/houthi-yemen-red-sea-strikes-what-gained-won/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&wpisrc=nl_todayworld&utm_campaign=wp_todays_worldview

As I mentioned in a previous post, besides aerial attacks and financial sanctions the U.S. is also attempting to stem the flow of Iranian weapons components to the Houthis.

https://www.aol.com/2-missing-navy-seals-were-155200542.html

 

Notice the photos of items seized.

Edited January 16 by Hawaiian
Additional comment.

[thaibeachlovers]

9 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

You seem unaware of maritime insurance costs.

That affects all shipping, not just oil tankers.

 

End the Gaza conflict and the Houthi problem ends. Seems the Americans are unable to do that, despite them having the means to do so.

[Bkk Brian]

59 minutes ago, thaibeachlovers said:

That affects all shipping, not just oil tankers.

 

End the Gaza conflict and the Houthi problem ends. Seems the Americans are unable to do that, despite them having the means to do so.

End the Gaza conflict and the Houthi problem ends.

 

Great, then tell your buddies, I can only assume they're buddies of yours as I've never seen you criticize them, to get the hell out of their tunnels, stop hiding like cowards behind the civilians in Gaza, hand over the hostages and give themselves up. I presume you agree with that yes?

[Georgealbert]

11 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

Well, they attacked an American ship, but that is expected after America bombed them. The UK can also expect retaliation. So much for not wanting to expand the Gaza war.

 

Isn't there an on line site that tracks all the ships in the whole world? I imagine there would be.

Still showing your support for terrorist groups.

 

They got bombed because of attacks of civilian shipping and it them and Iran that are trying to expand the Gaza war.

 

Try reading facts and not using IMO as an excuse to post your nonsense.

[Hawaiian]

11 hours ago, Danderman123 said:

You seem unaware of maritime insurance costs.

Bloomberg is reporting that insurance carriers are considering withdrawing coverage for shipping in the Red Sea.

NOTE: Not furnishing link because it has a paywall.

[Bkk Brian]

 

 

Biden admin to relist Houthis as specially designated global terrorists – source

 

The Biden administration was expected to announce plans to relist Houthi rebels as specially designated global terrorists, a US official tells Reuters.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/biden-admin-to-relist-houthis-as-specially-designated-global-terrorists-source/

[placeholder]

 

 

31 minutes ago, Hawaiian said:

Bloomberg is reporting that insurance carriers are considering withdrawing coverage for shipping in the Red Sea.

NOTE: Not furnishing link because it has a paywall.

The upper link will take you there.

https://archive.ph/Kvojt

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-16/insurers-seek-to-exclude-us-uk-ships-from-red-sea-cover?embedded-checkout=true