Thailand’s economic crisis feared amidst digital wallet dispute

[webfact]

The Bank of Thailand and the government have been at odds for months, with tensions escalating last week when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept interest rates at 2.5% despite political pressure for a reduction. This disagreement came to the fore during discussions about the digital wallet scheme, a 560 billion baht (US$15.58 billion) project which the central bank has urged caution over.

 

A poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) revealed that 68.8% of respondents wouldn’t be upset if the project was abandoned, while Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai remains committed to the scheme. He argued it is essential for reviving the economy and warned that a crisis akin to the 1997 Tom Yam Kung crisis could occur without some form of stimulus.

 

This has led to speculation within the private sector about an impending economic crisis, with some suggesting that the government should explore alternative measures rather than sticking to the digital wallet scheme.

 

President of the Federation of Thai SMEs, Sangchai Theerakulwanich, added to these concerns by stating that an economic crisis in Thailand is likely due to a combination of internal and external factors within the financial sector. He singled out the issue of non-performing loans (NPLs), particularly within the automotive industry, as a potential trigger for an economic crisis.

 

by Alex Morgan

Photo courtesy of เศรษฐา ทวีสิน - Srettha Thavisin (Facebook)

 

Full story: The Thaiger 2024-02-12

 

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[OneMoreFarang]

Does Thailand really need this, and can it be rightly called an economic crisis? I don't think so.

If the country is in an economic crisis, then our politicians should explain that.

 

Thaksin and his minions invented the cash scheme. And like the rice scheme was planned as a rice scam we can expect the same in this case. They do it to become richer. Why else? Maybe to get reelected so that can get even more money. And that's about it. 

[lordgrinz]

You can't borrow 560 Million Baht, then hand it to poor people, and expect it to return anything. Tell Pheu Thai if they wish to move forward, they will have to guarantee return on investment, otherwise the government will seize all of its members assets to pay for the debt, starting with all of PM Srettha's extensive personal assets.

[Mike Lister]

There is no economic crisis, it's scaremongering tactics.

 

Factory production is down true, but factory production is dependent on overseas demand and the Chinese economy hasn't recovered.

 

"Thailand's tourism industry saw a strong start to 2024 with nearly 4 million foreign arrivals in January, the government’s spokesperson Chai Wacharonke said on Feb. 10.

 

Thailand welcomed 128,969 foreign visitors on Feb. 8, two days ahead of the Lunar New Year.

 

As of the same day, visitors from China topped the list with 730,747, followed by travelers from Malaysia (419,116), Russia (275,641), India (209,431) and Laos (130,551)".

 

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/travel/thailand-welcomes-nearly-4-million-foreigners-in-january-4711026.html#:~:text=Thailand's tourism industry saw a,Wacharonke said on Feb. 10.

 

 

"Thailand's exports rose for a fifth straight month in December but at a slower pace and less than analysts' forecasts, and the commerce ministry said on Friday that it expected small export growth in 2024 after a slight drop last year.

Customs-based exports (THCEX=ECI), opens new tab rose 4.7% in December from a year earlier, compared with a forecast for a 6.0% year-on-year increase in a Reuters poll, and following November's 4.9% rise".

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/thai-export-growth-misses-forecast-dec-small-rise-seen-2024-2024-01-26/

[retarius]

35 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

There is no economic crisis, it's scaremongering tactics.

 

Factory production is down true, but factory production is dependent on overseas demand and the Chinese economy hasn't recovered.

 

"Thailand's tourism industry saw a strong start to 2024 with nearly 4 million foreign arrivals in January, the government’s spokesperson Chai Wacharonke said on Feb. 10.

 

Thailand welcomed 128,969 foreign visitors on Feb. 8, two days ahead of the Lunar New Year.

 

As of the same day, visitors from China topped the list with 730,747, followed by travelers from Malaysia (419,116), Russia (275,641), India (209,431) and Laos (130,551)".

 

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/travel/thailand-welcomes-nearly-4-million-foreigners-in-january-4711026.html#:~:text=Thailand's tourism industry saw a,Wacharonke said on Feb. 10.

 

 

"Thailand's exports rose for a fifth straight month in December but at a slower pace and less than analysts' forecasts, and the commerce ministry said on Friday that it expected small export growth in 2024 after a slight drop last year.

Customs-based exports (THCEX=ECI), opens new tab rose 4.7% in December from a year earlier, compared with a forecast for a 6.0% year-on-year increase in a Reuters poll, and following November's 4.9% rise".

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/thai-export-growth-misses-forecast-dec-small-rise-seen-2024-2024-01-26/

Nothing like a few facts to dispel scaremongering, is there?

[shackleton]

I don't know who they are asking about not wanting the Digital payout

Most Thais I know are looking forward to receiving it 🤑

[hotchilli]

4 hours ago, webfact said:

The Bank of Thailand and the government have been at odds for months, with tensions escalating last week when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept interest rates at 2.5% despite political pressure for a reduction. This disagreement came to the fore during discussions about the digital wallet scheme, a 560 billion baht (US$15.58 billion) project which the central bank has urged caution over.

Crisis, what crisis?? 

[hotchilli]

3 hours ago, OneMoreFarang said:

Does Thailand really need this, and can it be rightly called an economic crisis? I don't think so.

If the country is in an economic crisis, then our politicians should explain that.

The first one who spoke would be sacked.

[bradiston]

This is hilarious. You've got the PM bawling about a crisis and the banks saying rubbish, calm down, there's no crisis. But with no crisis Gollum can't get his prrrrecious wallet out. So can't get the votes secured he'll be needing next time round. He won't be shouting about a crisis once he's been in government for 12 months. Quite the opposite.

[Purdey]

Thais don't understand economics below master degree level. They just want free money. Pheu Thai just wanted votes and didn't calculate that they would create huge excitement after the election. Now they are stuck and will grind the economy into dust. But no one will remember. 

[DonniePeverley]

7 hours ago, Mike Lister said:

There is no economic crisis, it's scaremongering tactics.

 

Factory production is down true, but factory production is dependent on overseas demand and the Chinese economy hasn't recovered.

 

"Thailand's tourism industry saw a strong start to 2024 with nearly 4 million foreign arrivals in January, the government’s spokesperson Chai Wacharonke said on Feb. 10.

 

Thailand welcomed 128,969 foreign visitors on Feb. 8, two days ahead of the Lunar New Year.

 

As of the same day, visitors from China topped the list with 730,747, followed by travelers from Malaysia (419,116), Russia (275,641), India (209,431) and Laos (130,551)".

 

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/travel/thailand-welcomes-nearly-4-million-foreigners-in-january-4711026.html#:~:text=Thailand's tourism industry saw a,Wacharonke said on Feb. 10.

 

 

"Thailand's exports rose for a fifth straight month in December but at a slower pace and less than analysts' forecasts, and the commerce ministry said on Friday that it expected small export growth in 2024 after a slight drop last year.

Customs-based exports (THCEX=ECI), opens new tab rose 4.7% in December from a year earlier, compared with a forecast for a 6.0% year-on-year increase in a Reuters poll, and following November's 4.9% rise".

 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/thai-export-growth-misses-forecast-dec-small-rise-seen-2024-2024-01-26/

 

 

There was simply no need to stop the visa fees for Chinese tourists. Tourism from China has resumed all around the world. In a blind panic and desperation they've invested billions into wiping away visa fees - when there was simply no need to in my opinions. 

 

4 million tourists January - means we could be heading to 50 million tourists by the year end. That is just too much. 

 

That was a massive investment when you consider they also did the same for Indian tourists. Huge investments. 

Edited February 12 by DonniePeverley

[john donson]

buying votes is illegal, no ?  so that party should be banned for life for doing politics...

 

they did not even win the elections, only by kissing ass of other parties and even the military...

[xtrnuno41]

Mmmmm seems Thailand is very rich

Expanding Suvarnabhumi and don Mueang

Digital wallet

new airport Pangh nga

Stupid land bridge

2 submarines or they trade it now for fregats?

F 16's and F 35"s 

bridge Samui to Surat thani

Crisis ?

[Purdey]

Well I suppose they could give people a gift of THB 1,000 every new year over the next 10 years. Hopefully they won't stay in power 10 years. 

[Karma80]

The only crisis is this government. Dump $15b of free money into the economy then look bemused when inflation spikes. Cash printer goes brrrrr - now where have we seen that.

[Mike Lister]

11 hours ago, xtrnuno41 said:

Mmmmm seems Thailand is very rich

Expanding Suvarnabhumi and don Mueang

Digital wallet

new airport Pangh nga

Stupid land bridge

2 submarines or they trade it now for fregats?

F 16's and F 35"s 

bridge Samui to Surat thani

Crisis ?

Exactly, it's these "I wanna do" projects that are creating the future economic crisis.

[John Drake]

On 2/12/2024 at 9:31 AM, webfact said:

A poll conducted by the National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) revealed that 68.8% of respondents wouldn’t be upset if the project was abandoned

 

I'm guessing the 31.2 percent who would be upset are PTP voters.

[Mike Lister]

Wow, just reading that the cabinet has approved new borrowings, equal to the amount of digital wallet (560 bill baht) but for a different purpose, or so it is  reported, nod nod wink wink. It looks like they are going to go ahead with this regardless....I'm amazed.

[bradiston]

42 minutes ago, Mike Lister said:

Wow, just reading that the cabinet has approved new borrowings, equal to the amount of digital wallet (560 bill baht) but for a different purpose, or so it is  reported, nod nod wink wink. It looks like they are going to go ahead with this regardless....I'm amazed.

Money laundering by any other name.

[ExpatOilWorker]

I can teach Srettha to fix the economy: Lower corruption!

OK, class is over and if still can't find Thailand, then it is because it is down below Sout Africa and Argentina.