Distinct signs of upturn' for recession-hit economy, Bank of England governor says

[Social Media]

 

Bank of England Governor, Andrew Bailey, has expressed optimism about the UK economy, indicating "distinct signs of an upturn" despite the recent recession. Bailey addressed a committee of MPs, noting that while the country entered a recession late last year, he believes it will be one of the shallowest recessions in modern times.

 

Bailey highlighted the Bank's role in deliberately cooling down demand in the economy to combat inflation. The Bank's actions, including 14 consecutive interest rate hikes, were aimed at bringing inflation back to its target level of 2% to facilitate sustainable growth.

 

Although the Monetary Policy Committee paused rate hikes last summer, they have refrained from cutting rates due to concerns about future inflation. Bailey emphasized the risks associated with the UK's full employment status, which could potentially increase demand and drive inflation.

 

Additionally, Bailey mentioned concerns about rising energy costs and disruptions to shipping in the Red Sea, which could contribute to inflationary pressures in the latter part of 2024.

 

Regarding financial market speculation about rate cuts in late spring, Bailey clarified that the Bank does not endorse market predictions and emphasized that any decision on rate cuts would be data-driven rather than based on predetermined dates.

 

Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent echoed Bailey's sentiment, emphasizing that decisions on rate cuts would be made based on data rather than specific timelines.

 

21.02.24

Source

 

[JonnyF]

Well that didn't take long.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68346038

 

One of the benefits of being a sovereign nation free of the shackles of the EU means you can act quickly and make decisions that benefit your own country.

 

Let's hope the Germans can turn things around as quickly. They are the powerhouse economy of the EU after all. It won't be easy being tied to such a behemoth but I'm sure they can do it with a couple of years, even without Britain's massive contributions to the EU. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/15/germany-two-year-recession-2023-gdp

 

[RuamRudy]

No doubt, people the length and breadth of the UK will be filled with Rishi fever as they see their bank accounts swell in front of their eyes.

 

The third choice for PM has single handedly dragged us from the economic ruins he inherited from Labour's disastrous tenure, and assured the Nasty Party of another record majority at the next election.

[RayC]

2 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Well that didn't take long.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68346038

 

One of the benefits of being a sovereign nation free of the shackles of the EU means you can act quickly and make decisions that benefit your own country.

 

Let's hope the Germans can turn things around as quickly. They are the powerhouse economy of the EU after all. It won't be easy being tied to such a behemoth but I'm sure they can do it with a couple of years, even without Britain's massive contributions to the EU. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/15/germany-two-year-recession-2023-gdp

 

 

Never let it be said that you miss an opportunity to have a dig at Germany and the EU and, equally, never let it be said that there is ever any substance to these digs.

 

Given that the UK government was free to adjust its' fiscal policies when we were in the EU, and the BoE was equally free to adjust the base rate, how exactly has being outside the EU helped the UK economy recover?

 

On the other side of the coin, how does being in the EU 'shackle' its' members' economic recovery? How has the German economy been negatively affected by Germany's EU membership?

[placeholder]

10 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

Never let it be said that you miss an opportunity to have a dig at Germany and the EU and, equally, never let it be said that there is ever any substance to these digs.

 

Given that the UK government was free to adjust its' fiscal policies when we were in the EU, and the BoE was equally free to adjust the base rate, how exactly has being outside the EU helped the UK economy recover?

 

On the other side of the coin, how does being in the EU 'shackle' its' members' economic recovery? How has the German economy been negatively affected by Germany's EU membership?

Actually, Germany is in trouble because it relied on exports to keep its economy growing. This is the same strategy that Brexiters endorsed for the UK.

[jollyhangmon]

3 hours ago, placeholder said:

Actually, Germany is in trouble because it relied on exports to keep its economy growing. This is the same strategy that Brexiters endorsed for the UK.

 

... indeed, plus their neo-liberal minister of finance is running a wierd austerity program, scratched a lot of pubic funding/spending, the polar opposite of the USofAs pretty successful tactic.

 

Appears to be quite a narcissistic & hypocritical fool that not only constantly slows down the whole show by now - even across EU -  but managed to hopefully eliminate his loser club (FDP) from parliament for good by kicking them below 5% threshold (from 11.5%, now polling at 4%) come next election in 2025.

 

[candide]

6 hours ago, JonnyF said:

Well that didn't take long.

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-68346038

 

One of the benefits of being a sovereign nation free of the shackles of the EU means you can act quickly and make decisions that benefit your own country.

 

Let's hope the Germans can turn things around as quickly. They are the powerhouse economy of the EU after all. It won't be easy being tied to such a behemoth but I'm sure they can do it with a couple of years, even without Britain's massive contributions to the EU. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/15/germany-two-year-recession-2023-gdp

 

Do you realise It's not a good news for UK (and any other European country)? 

Germany weights around 8% of UK foreign trade, and a crisis in Germany would also affect the whole EU, which weights more than 40% of UK foreign trade.

[JonnyF]

3 minutes ago, candide said:

Do you realise It's not a good news for UK (and any other European country)? 

Germany weights around 8% of UK foreign trade, and a crisis in Germany would also affect the whole EU, which weights more than 40% of UK foreign trade.

 

Of course it is not good news for the UK. That's why I said I hope the Germans can turn it around quickly. 

 

However it dispels the myth that the UK's incredibly brief recession is due to Brexit, when we can see countries that remained in the EU like Germany (or even strong countries outside the EU like Japan) doing even worse due to worldwide economic issues and shifts.

 

The Europhiles/Rejoiners love to jump on any bad news from the UK (see the other thread on World News), but get all butthurt when someone points out that the current economic climate is affecting countries both inside and outside the EU. 

 

I also like to point out all the lies of Project Fear now that we can see they were ridiculous exaggerations to try to scare people into voting Remain. 

 

 

[candide]

29 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

Of course it is not good news for the UK. That's why I said I hope the Germans can turn it around quickly. 

 

However it dispels the myth that the UK's incredibly brief recession is due to Brexit, when we can see countries that remained in the EU like Germany (or even strong countries outside the EU like Japan) doing even worse due to worldwide economic issues and shifts.

 

The Europhiles/Rejoiners love to jump on any bad news from the UK (see the other thread on World News), but get all butthurt when someone points out that the current economic climate is affecting countries both inside and outside the EU. 

 

I also like to point out all the lies of Project Fear now that we can see they were ridiculous exaggerations to try to scare people into voting Remain. 

 

 

Of course, every country is affected by the current economic climate. Brexit is just an aggravating factor. It seems, so far, that this negative impact has been lower than expected. Then numbers can be interpreted in different ways. More diplomatically, it can be said without any doubt that Brexit did not bring the positive economic impact some people expected.

 

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn02784/

[RayC]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

 

Of course it is not good news for the UK. That's why I said I hope the Germans can turn it around quickly. 

 

However it dispels the myth that the UK's incredibly brief recession is due to Brexit, when we can see countries that remained in the EU like Germany (or even strong countries outside the EU like Japan) doing even worse due to worldwide economic issues and shifts.

 

The Europhiles/Rejoiners love to jump on any bad news from the UK (see the other thread on World News), but get all butthurt when someone points out that the current economic climate is affecting countries both inside and outside the EU. 

 

I also like to point out all the lies of Project Fear now that we can see they were ridiculous exaggerations to try to scare people into voting Remain. 

 

 

 

It is undeniable that the COVID related lockdown and the war in Ukraine has had a negative effect on the UK and EU member states' economies. Indeed, the effect of the war has had a more pronounced negative effect on most EU member states when compared to the UK.

 

Have the worst case scenarios e.g. a 50000 increase in the number of unemployed, suggested by the 'Remain' side prior to the referendum occurred? No but it is undeniable that there have been negative effects, both economic and political, as yet another report shows.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-off-uk-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-says.html

 

And what about the promised benefits? There is virtually no chance of a trade deal with the US in the foreseeable future irrespective of who wins the Presidential election this year, and it's a similar story for China and India. On the political front, one only has to look at  Northern Ireland since we left the EU to see negative effects.

 

Staying on the political front, why has there been no mass repeal of EU law? I'd suggest that one reason might be that the overwhelming majority of EU laws are good laws and therefore shouldn't be repealed (Incidentally, the UK voted in favour of 95+% of the laws which originated in Brussels).

 

The simple truth, which you fail to acknowledge despite all the evidence, is that Brexit has damaged the UK and brought few, if any, benefits.

[placeholder]

6 minutes ago, RayC said:

And what about the promised benefits? There is virtually no chance of a trade deal with the US in the foreseeable future irrespective of who wins the Presidential election this year, and it's a similar story for China and India. .

Actually, even the Tory led government acknowledged in 2018 that a free trade deal with the US would have negligible effects on the UK economy

 

Britain to set out mandate for post-Brexit US deal

"Striking a free-trade agreement with the US is seen as a great prize by Brexit advocates, increasing economic and trading ties between both countries. But the government’s economic analysis suggested any economic gains would be negligible.

A cross-Whitehall analysis from 2018 suggested that a US free-trade deal would only increase UK GDP by 0.2 per cent over 15 years."

https://archive.ph/hcqlL#selection-1847.0-1855.93

https://www.ft.com/content/9a08c37a-5be6-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4

[metisdead]

A post attempting to deflect the topic contravening our Community Standards has been removed.

[JonnyF]

14 hours ago, RayC said:

 

It is undeniable that the COVID related lockdown and the war in Ukraine has had a negative effect on the UK and EU member states' economies. Indeed, the effect of the war has had a more pronounced negative effect on most EU member states when compared to the UK.

 

Have the worst case scenarios e.g. a 50000 increase in the number of unemployed, suggested by the 'Remain' side prior to the referendum occurred? No but it is undeniable that there have been negative effects, both economic and political, as yet another report shows.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/14/brexit-has-sliced-5percent-off-uk-economic-growth-goldman-sachs-says.html

 

And what about the promised benefits? There is virtually no chance of a trade deal with the US in the foreseeable future irrespective of who wins the Presidential election this year, and it's a similar story for China and India. On the political front, one only has to look at  Northern Ireland since we left the EU to see negative effects.

 

Staying on the political front, why has there been no mass repeal of EU law? I'd suggest that one reason might be that the overwhelming majority of EU laws are good laws and therefore shouldn't be repealed (Incidentally, the UK voted in favour of 95+% of the laws which originated in Brussels).

 

The simple truth, which you fail to acknowledge despite all the evidence, is that Brexit has damaged the UK and brought few, if any, benefits.

 

Huge benefits. Sovereignty, self determination, a purer form of democracy to start with.

 

Economically it hasn't had much of an effect either way yet, but it was always going to be a long term project. I always felt that between 5-10 years would be the start of the upturn but it came much quicker than that. I also expected more of a negative impact the first 2 years after leaving (obviously not to the ridiculous degree Project Fear suggested) but it never really materialized.  

 

As for the laws, you can't unwrap 30 years of ligature (that's not meant to say legislation BTW) in a couple of years. The fact is, we make our own laws now. We'll work through which ones we want to keep over the next decade. All in our own good time. By your logic you wouldn't mind me locking you in your condo all day because you didn't plan on going too far anyway.

[RayC]

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

Huge benefits. Sovereignty, self determination, a purer form of democracy to start with.

 

The sovereignty issue is overstated. As I have mentioned on numerous occasions, the fact is that between 1997 - 2016, the UK was forced to enact 3% against its' wishes. We were either in favour of 97% of laws originating in Brussels or, at worse, indifferent to them.

 

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

Economically it hasn't had much of an effect either way yet,

 

That is just utter nonsense. See any of the numerous links which have been posted.

 

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

but it was always going to be a long term project.

 

In the long-term, we are all dead. The UK economy may be on life support by then.

 

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

I always felt that between 5-10 years would be the start of the upturn but it came much quicker than that.

 

The economic benefits of Brexit are starting to appear? Can you give some concrete examples or offer any evidence for this claim?

 

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

I also expected more of a negative impact the first 2 years after leaving (obviously not to the ridiculous degree Project Fear suggested) but it never really materialized.  

 

This is just more utter nonsense and bears no resemblance to reality.

 

There are no end of studies which conclude that Brexit has cost the UK between 4 - 8% of growth; has fundamentally altered the labour market (immigration) for the worse; has reduced trade between the UK and EU with limited increases elsewhere; has negatively affected inward investment to the UK; has lead to a decrease in the value of the pound of +/-10% with limited benefit for UK exports; has lead to domestic political chaos (N. Ireland); has divided the country and has weakened our diplomatic position in the world.

 

Just how bad did you expect the impact to be?

 

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

As for the laws, you can't unwrap 30 years of ligature (that's not meant to say legislation BTW) in a couple of years. The fact is, we make our own laws now. We'll work through which ones we want to keep over the next decade. All in our own good deal.

 

We were promised a 'bonfire of EU legislation' almost immediately. I would like to say that good sense prevailed, but it was probably more a case that reality bit.

 

In theory, we are free to make our own laws without restriction. In practice, unless we want to reinvent ourselves as Europe's North Korea - something I believe the flat earthers in the ERG might find attractive - then the ability to do so will be severely restricted by our dealings with the rest of the world.

 

3 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

 By your logic you wouldn't mind me locking you in your condo all day because you didn't plan on going too far anyway.

 

Yet another conclusion based on a false argument.

 

I'll adjust your analogy. You (Brexit) are locked out of your home where a fire is raging. The fire brigade (EU) arrive - complete with a full array of fire fighting equipment in working order - and offer to help you fight the fire. "No thanks", say you, "I've got this. Me and my leaky one gallon pail will soon have things under control".

[candide]

5 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

Huge benefits. Sovereignty, self determination, a purer form of democracy to start with.

 

Economically it hasn't had much of an effect either way yet, but it was always going to be a long term project. I always felt that between 5-10 years would be the start of the upturn but it came much quicker than that. I also expected more of a negative impact the first 2 years after leaving (obviously not to the ridiculous degree Project Fear suggested) but it never really materialized.  

 

As for the laws, you can't unwrap 30 years of ligature (that's not meant to say legislation BTW) in a couple of years. The fact is, we make our own laws now. We'll work through which ones we want to keep over the next decade. All in our own good time. By your logic you wouldn't mind me locking you in your condo all day because you didn't plan on going too far anyway.

One of the main issue is the absence of a project, and most of all which could rally the British people, and even only the Brexiteers.

The only ones who have a clear project are the proponents of ultra-liberal economics (i.e. Singapore on Thames). However  it is not able to rally the "left behind" component of Brexiteers. So there is hardly a project, and certainly not a project shared by all Brexiteers.

It's actually more like navigate by visual....

 

[JonnyF]

31 minutes ago, candide said:

One of the main issue is the absence of a project, and most of all which could rally the British people, and even only the Brexiteers.

The only ones who have a clear project are the proponents of ultra-liberal economics (i.e. Singapore on Thames). However  it is not able to rally the "left behind" component of Brexiteers. So there is hardly a project, and certainly not a project shared by all Brexiteers.

It's actually more like navigate by visual....

 

 

I favoured No Deal followed by "Singapore on Thames" myself.

 

We could certainly have done of better job of exiting had we not had traitors like Theresa May trying to undermine the project with BRINO. 

 

However, thank our lucky stars we are out now. We can continue to diverge further from the EU in coming years as it continues to swirl around the plughole. With Germany's manufacturing continuing to be undermined/undercut/outperformed by the likes of China and more basket case countries being allowed to join, I really don't see the EU as something I would want to be a part of, even if I didn't have an issue with being reduced to a state of a Federal Europe (which I would have a massive issue with). 

[Chomper Higgot]

People who for years have scorned economic forecasts, now cling to economic forecasts.

 

Meanwhile the real data is in.

[transam]

Nice to read a positive UK headline ...........