Electric cars ain't all they are cracked up to be.

[Muhendis]

"A driver told of how he was trapped behind the wheel of his electric car when it sped up to 90mph and would not respond to him pressing the brakes."

Full story here:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/electric-car-motorway-driver-nathan-owen-jaguar-ipace-b1143726.html

 

The fact that the car uses batteries is not relevant in my opinion. I think the blame lies with the computer.

One thing is certain. Jaguar who have discontinued that particular model will take a big hit and maybe MG also.

Nobody wants to be in a car that suddenly decides to do it's own thing. 

[Crossy]

Holding the Start-Stop button "should" behave like the power switch on your PC, a hard power-off (at least that's what our Mu-X is supposed to do).

 

[retarius]

One swallow does not a summer make, and all that.....

An anecdote cannot be used to denigrate a whole class of vehicles. But there have been reports of people being locked in their cars when the batteries catch fire and the computer presumably fries. I don't like the sound of that really. But people also get locked out of their cars when it it is cold. I prefer to be in control, I hate it when my laptop does stuff automatically. I keep my lap top on a shirt leash and will do so with an EV if in the highly unlikely event I ever buy one. 

[Muhendis]

23 minutes ago, Crossy said:

Holding the Start-Stop button "should" behave like the power switch on your PC, a hard power-off (at least that's what our Mu-X is supposed to do).

 

ALT....CTRL....DEL.

[Fruit Trader]

55 minutes ago, Muhendis said:

The fact that the car uses batteries is not relevant in my opinion. I think the blame lies with the computer.

 

And if bugs remain in software the right set of events can lead to failure.

 

Electrically, ICE vehicles have the ABS pump and control module to handle. EV's throw regenerative braking into the same mix adding one more control function to the braking system logic.

[OneMoreFarang]

I remember another article where the driver of an EV wanted to get out of his car.

But he couldn't, because the electric system had locked the doors.

 

That doesn't mean that all EVs are bad all the time.

But obviously there are lots of problems which happen from time to time. And because it's all electric and all computerized there are lots of things which can go wrong.

 

And then there are the fixes, remotely installed updates. I wait for the day where some hackers hack that system and install some special updates like swapping the gas pedal with the brake pedal or little jokes like that.

We can be pretty sure it will happen. The question is only how fast and what impact it will have.

[Muhendis]

15 minutes ago, OneMoreFarang said:

I remember another article where the driver of an EV wanted to get out of his car.

But he couldn't, because the electric system had locked the doors.

 

That doesn't mean that all EVs are bad all the time.

But obviously there are lots of problems which happen from time to time. And because it's all electric and all computerized there are lots of things which can go wrong.

 

And then there are the fixes, remotely installed updates. I wait for the day where some hackers hack that system and install some special updates like swapping the gas pedal with the brake pedal or little jokes like that.

We can be pretty sure it will happen. The question is only how fast and what impact it will have.

Bring back the Kettering system.

Clean the points.

Change the coil.

Change the "condenser".

Spray anti condensation stuff all over the place.

Crank the engine with the starting handle.

 

Ah. Yes. Those were the days.

[MJCM]

The driver of the car has been arrested 

 

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/driver-arrested-after-runaway-electric-car-stopped-by-police

[lom]

Why would he be arrested if the "runaway" was due to a car fault? There's more to this than what is reported..

[Muhendis]

1 hour ago, lom said:

Why would he be arrested if the "runaway" was due to a car fault? There's more to this than what is reported..

If the car maker says everything is fine, the police have a problem so they will arrest everyone 'til the courts sort it out.

[lom]

1 hour ago, Muhendis said:

If the car maker says everything is fine, the police have a problem so they will arrest everyone 'til the courts sort it out.

That sounds very unlikely to me. Arrested for a week or two until the investigation is finished? In a democratic country?  No...

 

Edit: He was brought in for questioning and then released, that's not arresting.

Edited March 20 by lom

[Muhendis]

19 hours ago, MJCM said:

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/news/driver-arrested-after-runaway-electric-car-stopped-by-police

 

37 minutes ago, lom said:

That sounds very unlikely to me. Arrested for a week or two until the investigation is finished? In a democratic country?  No...

 

Edit: He was brought in for questioning and then released, that's not arresting.

According to the MJCM link he was arrested but released whilst the police try to sort out what's what.

The article doesn't say if the arrest is still active or not.

He was driving a car that was in a dangerous condition and that's an offence.

[sirineou]

On 3/8/2024 at 5:28 PM, Muhendis said:

"A driver told of how he was trapped behind the wheel of his electric car when it sped up to 90mph and would not respond to him pressing the brakes."

Full story here:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/electric-car-motorway-driver-nathan-owen-jaguar-ipace-b1143726.html

 

The fact that the car uses batteries is not relevant in my opinion. I think the blame lies with the computer.

One thing is certain. Jaguar who have discontinued that particular model will take a big hit and maybe MG also.

Nobody wants to be in a car that suddenly decides to do it's own thing. 

Another story against EVs , 

We have gone over these issues at nauseum . 

I remember in the late seventies people in the US being against Japanese cars , they called them "rice burners" and they had Jap car bashing parties . A few years later, they all were driving Japanese cars.

  How much do you want to bet that all those who disparage  Electric cars will be driving one in the next 10 years? 

[quake]

14 minutes ago, sirineou said:

How much do you want to bet that all those who disparage  Electric cars will be driving one in the next 10 years? 

 

I wonder what other tech will be on sale by then.

More to choose from I think.

 

[sirineou]

4 minutes ago, quake said:

 

I wonder what other tech will be on sale by then.

More to choose from I think.

 

Sure, If I was you I hold up for the jet packs. 

Like ICE cars , EV's will evolve. No technology remains static. 

I expect EV batteries to be Hydrogen fuel cell based.  

Edited March 20 by sirineou

[JBChiangRai]

On 3/8/2024 at 5:28 PM, Muhendis said:

"A driver told of how he was trapped behind the wheel of his electric car when it sped up to 90mph and would not respond to him pressing the brakes."

Full story here:

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/electric-car-motorway-driver-nathan-owen-jaguar-ipace-b1143726.html

 

The fact that the car uses batteries is not relevant in my opinion. I think the blame lies with the computer.

One thing is certain. Jaguar who have discontinued that particular model will take a big hit and maybe MG also.

Nobody wants to be in a car that suddenly decides to do it's own thing. 

 

The driver was speeding and this was his excuse.

 

The car has been thoroughly examined and there is no fault.

 

Jaguar discontinuing this model has nothing to do with this event.

 

This a non-story, move along @Muhendis

Edited March 20 by JBChiangRai

[JBChiangRai]

10 minutes ago, sirineou said:

Sure, If I was you I hold up for the jet packs. 

Like ICE cars , EV's will evolve. No technology remains static. 

I expect EV batteries to be Hydrogen fuel cell based.  

 

I think we will see some Hydrogen vehicles in the future, they will be 5 times more expensive per kilometer to run than a BEV so they are likely to be cheaper to buy.

[sirineou]

15 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

5 times more expensive per kilometer to run

Why would you say that? 

[NotEinstein]

A minor anecdote: My daughter leases a Hyundai hybrid. Last summer, while I was visiting, we got into the car with children in the back, the 9-year old behind the drivers seat. When my daughter switched on, on it's own volition, the driver's seat reclined fully onto my grandson's legs and there was nothing we could do to make it stop until, after it decided to 'behave' again.

[JBChiangRai]

18 hours ago, sirineou said:

Why would you say that? 

Because you produce electricity by whatever means and you can either put it in your BEV achieving 90% efficiency 

 

OR

 

you can electrolyze water into Hydrogen with waste product Oxygen, very inefficient 

 

THEN

 

compress that hydrogen using lots of electricity to put it into storage tanks which is inefficient 

 

THEN

 

you pump it into tankers using more electricity which is inefficient 

 

THEN

 

you drive this tankers to fuel stations using energy to make the delivery 

 

THEN

 

you pump the hydrogen into tanks at the fuel station using electricity 

 

THEN 

 

you pump and compress the hydrogen into vehicles using electricity and producing heat as a waste product

 

By now we are at 50% efficiency 

 

THEN

 

and this is the kicker, you either explode the hydrogen in a specially converted ICE which are typically 25% efficient 

 

OR

 

you convert it to electricity to run the electric motor in a Fuel Cell which is 50% efficient 

[sirineou]

40 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

Because you produce electricity by whatever means and you can either put it in your BEV achieving 90% efficiency 

 

OR

 

you can electrolyze water into Hydrogen with waste product Oxygen, very inefficient 

 

THEN

 

compress that hydrogen using lots of electricity to put it into storage tanks which is inefficient 

 

THEN

 

you pump it into tankers using more electricity which is inefficient 

 

THEN

 

you drive this tankers to fuel stations using energy to make the delivery 

 

THEN

 

you pump the hydrogen into tanks at the fuel station using electricity 

 

THEN 

 

you pump and compress the hydrogen into vehicles using electricity and producing heat as a waste product

 

By now we are at 50% efficiency 

 

THEN

 

and this is the kicker, you either explode the hydrogen in a specially converted ICE which are typically 25% efficient 

 

OR

 

you convert it to electricity to run the electric motor in a Fuel Cell which is 50% efficient 

Have ever  heard of scales of markets?  

And technological innovations?

All that you posted make the assumption that all that exist today will remain the same . 

even as me talk there innovations in the production and storage of Hydrogen is being made. that will make traditional BEV's obsolete. 

"Green Hydrogen Will Become The 21st Century Version Of Oil "

"The green hydrogen market will expand from about $1 billion today to $30 billion in 2030, according to MarketsandMarkets. Low renewable energy prices and advancements in electrolysis will drive the growth.  "

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2024/03/18/green-hydrogen-will-become-the-21st-century-version-of-oil/?sh=377c3cfd6365

 

"New Hydrogen Storage Tech Crucial for Aviation, Could Make Hydrogen Cars Viable After All "

"A team of researchers from the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST) in Korea has discovered a new storage technology. The research centers around a nanoporous magnesium borohydride structure (Mg(BH₄)₂) that can store hydrogen at high densities even under normal atmospheric pressure.  "

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/new-hydrogen-storage-tech-crucial-for-aviation-could-make-hydrogen-cars-viable-after-all-230995.html

[JBChiangRai]

1 minute ago, sirineou said:

Have ever  heard of scales of markets?  

And technological innovations?

All that you posted make the assumption that all that exist today will remain the same . 

even as me talk there innovations in the production and storage of Hydrogen is being made. that will make traditional BEV's obsolete. 

"Green Hydrogen Will Become The 21st Century Version Of Oil "

"The green hydrogen market will expand from about $1 billion today to $30 billion in 2030, according to MarketsandMarkets. Low renewable energy prices and advancements in electrolysis will drive the growth.  "

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kensilverstein/2024/03/18/green-hydrogen-will-become-the-21st-century-version-of-oil/?sh=377c3cfd6365

 

"New Hydrogen Storage Tech Crucial for Aviation, Could Make Hydrogen Cars Viable After All "

"A team of researchers from the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (UNIST) in Korea has discovered a new storage technology. The research centers around a nanoporous magnesium borohydride structure (Mg(BH₄)₂) that can store hydrogen at high densities even under normal atmospheric pressure.  "

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/new-hydrogen-storage-tech-crucial-for-aviation-could-make-hydrogen-cars-viable-after-all-230995.html

 

OK let's work on theoretical maximum efficiency for electrolysis where experts think we could end up with Fuel Cells.

 

The theoretical maximum efficiency of electrolysing water into Hydrogen is 66%, currently Fuel Cells are between 40% and 60% efficiency, the best ever achieved is 87% but that involves a process that could never be shrunk in size to fit a car as it involves extreme heat so let's go with 70%.  I don't think we could ever get more than 95% efficiency in compressing & distributing Hydrogen.

 

66% times 70%times 95% gives 44% efficiency, if we accept that producing hydrogen must have losses of at least 5% ie 95% of the theoretical maximum efficiency is 42%

 

It can never be more than 42% efficient so that puts a Hydrogen Fuel Cell car at 2.5 times more expensive per mile than a BEV.

 

If we are talking about an ICEngine adapted for Hydrogen (there's a video doing the rounds titled "This new Toyota Engine will destroy the EV industry") then the sums are 95% times 66% times 95% times 25% which gives 15% efficiency or 6 times more expensive per mile than a BEV.  ICEngines are typically 25% efficient, we've been developing them for more than a century and that's where we are at right now.

 

The science and the math don't lie.  Further, I expect Hydrogen to attract a Fuel Tax.  It's possible that they may sell the Hydrogen for less than they could sell the electricity to the grid, but would any commercial operation want to do that?

 

Taking your point about the new Hydrogen Storage Tech, that's great, it means we can store Hydrogen in a smaller volume to give the car a greater range, but it doesn't change the efficiency calculations.

 

[sirineou]

5 minutes ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

OK let's work on theoretical maximum efficiency for electrolysis where experts think we could end up with Fuel Cells.

 

The theoretical maximum efficiency of electrolysing water into Hydrogen is 66%, currently Fuel Cells are between 40% and 60% efficiency, the best ever achieved is 87% but that involves a process that could never be shrunk in size to fit a car as it involves extreme heat so let's go with 70%.  I don't think we could ever get more than 95% efficiency in compressing & distributing Hydrogen.

 

66% times 70%times 95% gives 44% efficiency, if we accept that producing hydrogen must have losses of at least 5% ie 95% of the theoretical maximum efficiency is 42%

 

It can never be more than 42% efficient so that puts a Hydrogen Fuel Cell car at 2.5 times more expensive per mile than a BEV.

 

If we are talking about an ICEngine adapted for Hydrogen (there's a video doing the rounds titled "This new Toyota Engine will destroy the EV industry") then the sums are 95% times 66% times 95% times 25% which gives 15% efficiency or 6 times more expensive per mile than a BEV.  ICEngines are typically 25% efficient, we've been developing them for more than a century and that's where we are at right now.

 

The science and the math don't lie.  Further, I expect Hydrogen to attract a Fuel Tax.  It's possible that they may sell the Hydrogen for less than they could sell the electricity to the grid, but would any commercial operation want to do that?

 

Taking your point about the new Hydrogen Storage Tech, that's great, it means we can store Hydrogen in a smaller volume to give the car a greater range, but it doesn't change the efficiency calculations.

 

These all  might be true. 

But again it makes assumptions . Theoreticals change, as do processes. 

   But even assuming that they remain constant and indeed  the productions frontier is at 66% ,and ignoring natural hydrogen. and other processes of extraction. 

Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the Universes, and a less efficient  but abundant recourse  always always trumps a more efficient but finite resources . 

One simply produces more. 

There is a reason why Giants in the automotive industry who know more about this than you and me ever would, are betting on Hydrogen.

   You sound like a thoughtful educated guy think about it.

  . You can't only consider the contemporary science, if there is one constant is that the science changes but  also the economics involved change . 

Aside from  the scarcity of materials nessacery for the production of traditional Batteries , the political realities of the location of such material, and the environmental concerns of their extraction. 

Conventional batteries are heavy, and anyone familiar with  F= MA  now that weight is critical for not only cars, but airplanes , and trunks. 

Airplanes for obvious reasons,   and trucks  because of the payload limitation. currying abound non productive weight makes no economic sense.  

Once the hydrogen infustracture for airplanes and trucks exists , and the continual RD for them , I find it difficult to think that this infustracture will not extend to passenger vehicles.  

  I keep using the term "Traditional batteries" because fuel cells are also batteries , which causes some confusion in the mind of many . 

   

 

 

 

[JBChiangRai]

2 minutes ago, sirineou said:

These all  might be true. 

But again it makes assumptions . Theoreticals change, as do processes. 

   But even assuming that they remain constant and indeed  the productions frontier is at 66% ,and ignoring natural hydrogen. and other processes of extraction. 

Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the Universes, and a less efficient  but abundant recourse  always always trumps a more efficient but finite resources . 

One simply produces more. 

There is a reason why Giants in the automotive industry who know more about this than you and me ever would, are betting on Hydrogen.

   You sound like a thoughtful educated guy think about it.

  . You can't only consider the contemporary science, if there is one constant is that the science changes but  also the economics involved change . 

Aside from  the scarcity of materials nessacery for the production of traditional Batteries , the political realities of the location of such material, and the environmental concerns of their extraction. 

Conventional batteries are heavy, and anyone familiar with  F= MA  now that weight is critical for not only cars, but airplanes , and trunks. 

Airplanes for obvious reasons,   and trucks  because of the payload limitation. currying abound non productive weight makes no economic sense.  

Once the hydrogen infustracture for airplanes and trucks exists , and the continual RD for them , I find it difficult to think that this infustracture will not extend to passenger vehicles.  

  I keep using the term "Traditional batteries" because fuel cells are also batteries , which causes some confusion in the mind of many . 

   

 

 

 

 

You probably haven't read it, but I have stated where I think the industry is going, I'll do it again here.

 

Yes, Hydrogen is indeed the most abundant element in the universe but it's not commercially available in its free state.  It forms strong bonds with other elements like Oxygen to make water.

 

The reason the theoretical maximum efficiency in electrolysing it from water is 66% is because for every 2 molecules of Hydrogen produced, a molecule of Oxygen is produced, so 33% goes towards making Oxygen.

 

Oxygen is abundant in air and can be extracted very cheaply by using Zeolit so in effect the Oxygen produced has a very small value.

 

It's quite possible (likely even) that we will have a Lithium shortage, that will cause Lithium prices to increase and then BEV cars (and the smaller batteries in Hydrogen Fuel Cell cars) will become more expensive.

 

We will probably have a situation where demand exceeds supply of BEV's, market dynamics will take care of the rest, they will be expensive.  Hydrogen cars will cost more to run but be freely available, so they will be cheaper.

 

Your choice will be an expensive BEV or a cheaper Hydrogen car.  I think we will see both and this is exactly what will happen.

 

Let's look at refueling times.  I watched a video yesterday, I didn't keep it so I can't reference it here, but currently it takes approximately 10 minutes to fuel a Hydrogen car for 300km, BEV charging is going to be shorter than that.  They are already working on batteries that will do that in 5 minutes.

 

Hydrogen will be used for semis, it may be used for planes if the storage methodology you mentioned comes off.  It will be used for other cases where batteries are going to be too heavy.  There are countries where the electric infrastructure doesn't exist and they may also use Hydrogen.  Then we have synthetic fuel, that is also a possibility, but not for general cars as it's too inefficient and expensive.  However manufacturers like Porsche are hoping that is the answer for their 911 range and even have a plant in South America.

 

Of course, the automotive industry know more about this than I do, but I understand enough to forecast what will happen.  There are some bad actors in the automotive industry who are worried about their survival and they are behind a lot of the FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) being promulgated across the web and news sites.  The automakers know more but they cannot be trusted, they have a horse in the race, or to be precise a young foal in a race of stallions (Tesla, BYD et al).

 

If we look at Norway, 90% of new vehicle sales are electric.  They have abundant hydroelectric power.  Abundance of power is also a great indicator for Hydrogen production.  They have trialed Hydrogen cars and customers have shunned them.

 

However you look at it, the premier solution is BEV and Hydrogen is an inferior solution from the customers viewpoint. It doesn't drive as well, Fuel Cells ramp up power slowly and decrease slowly so you still need Lithium batteries.  They have less performance and currently the tanks are massive, though hopefully new technology can change that.

 

I

[Muhendis]

21 hours ago, JBChiangRai said:

 

I think we will see some Hydrogen vehicles in the future, they will be 5 times more expensive per kilometer to run than a BEV so they are likely to be cheaper to buy.

We already have them in the UK but only in small numbers with Hydrogen filling stations few and far between. Is this a non-story also?

[JBChiangRai]

1 minute ago, Muhendis said:

We already have them in the UK but only in small numbers with Hydrogen filling stations few and far between. Is this a non-story also?

 

No, it's the beginning of cheap Hydrogen cars which are expensive to run and expensive BEV's which are cheap to run.

[StandardIssue]

On 3/8/2024 at 6:35 PM, OneMoreFarang said:

I remember another article where the driver of an EV wanted to get out of his car.

But he couldn't, because the electric system had locked the doors.

 

That doesn't mean that all EVs are bad all the time.

But obviously there are lots of problems which happen from time to time. And because it's all electric and all computerized there are lots of things which can go wrong.

 

And then there are the fixes, remotely installed updates. I wait for the day where some hackers hack that system and install some special updates like swapping the gas pedal with the brake pedal or little jokes like that.

We can be pretty sure it will happen. The question is only how fast and what impact it will have.

Its all electric and all computerized that is the problem? LOL!!! todays conventional combustion engine gas/diesel cars also use computers and have massive electrical systems. Another arm chair expert LOL! .. 

 

Electric cars are the way to go period. Combustion engine cars have greatly contributed to climate change by spewing tons of carbon dioxide and pollution into the worlds air daily for decades. The era of the combution engine car is coming to an end. Electric cars are so much simpler from an engineering stand point that it reveals the ignorance of anyone complaining that the EV problem is they are all electrical and computerized. Stay in your lane arm chair experts LOL!! Electric cars are much simpler to engineer and manufacture. If you want to make any argument about the down side it is mainly the manufacture of lithium ion batteries that is the issue BUT battery technology is being improved almost daily.

Edited March 21 by StandardIssue

[OneMoreFarang]

23 minutes ago, StandardIssue said:

Another arm chair expert LOL! .. 

 

Electric cars are the way to go period.

 

It's always nice to get some nuanced competent reply... 

[Muhendis]

How about the new Toyota hydrogen ICE?

https://www.autoracing1.com/pl/395761/automotive-this-new-engine-will-destroy-the-entire-ev-market-toyota-ceo/

I personally think its a backward step into the world of high temperatures and way too many moving parts.

[OneMoreFarang]

2 minutes ago, Muhendis said:

I personally think its a backward step into the world of high temperatures and way too many moving parts.

I watch from time to time a YouTube channel where a guy brings cars which are 20 or 30 years old up to a standard as if they were new. Many of these cars have more than 200,000km on the clock. Obviously, he replaces parts, but most of the car parts are still the originals.

I wonder how many EV will still be usable after 20 years. Probably near to zero. 

So too many moving parts is maybe not the main issue.