Thailand's Heatwave: High Temperatures of 44 Degrees Expected

[mommysboy]

  On 4/29/2024 at 9:13 AM, jak2002003 said:

What, you young people who all insist on driving cars, charging your mobile phones, laptops,  and using plastic for eveeythinng?  The young ones who are flying around the world each year for holidays and ordering food deliveries to you home every day? Want foods available all year round shipped and flown from all over the world so u can eat a strawberry in December. 

 

The older generation...no smartphones or laptops to charge, no plastic bags or packaging,not everyone had a car and people used go cycle or use a bus.  Did not fly to go on a holiday etc. Etc

 

 

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Agreed.

 

Mind you, I assume you didn't get here by canoe!

 

It's all of us, now- all as guilty as each other.

[mommysboy]

  On 4/29/2024 at 12:28 PM, GammaGlobulin said:

 

You neglected to include two important pieces of data:

a. The average low temps at the coolest time of day.

b. The relative humidity.

c.  Two degrees difference is a LOT, and if the humidity is also higher, than this will severely impact the body's ability to cool itself.

 

 

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Agreed - it's a mistake to look only at air temperature during the day.  The heat index is still high midnight and beyond, perhaps as much as 40 degrees. Anyway, all these severe heat warnings aren't being issued for the fun of it.  It's not a heatwave though, rather a peculiar relentless heat that has the same effect. In a country defined by hot, humid weather you don't need much extra to create a problem.

 

Poster Dinsdale has provided the most succinct and factually accurate info though imo.

[dinsdale]

  On 4/29/2024 at 12:28 PM, GammaGlobulin said:

 

You neglected to include two important pieces of data:

a. The average low temps at the coolest time of day.

b. The relative humidity.

c.  Two degrees difference is a LOT, and if the humidity is also higher, than this will severely impact the body's ability to cool itself.

 

 

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Point a. How do you think average daily and monthly averages are calculated? Daily average is the average of  both maximum and minimum. Monthly average is the average of daily averages over the month. Point b. As it is the definition of a heatwave does not include heat index. Point c. As I said the monthly average will be up because every day the maximums are consistently high. As it is where I am the average daily high is 39°C and the average minimum is 29°C. Nothing unusual about these April maximums and minimums for my area it's just constant. Average for the month 34°C. It is the case though that this month is hot, hot, hot everyday. As for humidity, during the day has been between low 50% to low 60% but spikes after sunset. Daytime humidity here today was 53ish% and now it's 80%. Heat index has been low 40 to low 50°C.

[NotEinstein]

I've been recording the temperature in and around my house every 15 minutes for the last five years - this it what I can see to date:

Lowest Low per Year
9.562     8-12-2019
9.750     27-1-2020
11.750     14-1-2021
12.562     31-1-2022
13.125     8-1-2023
13.812     21-1-2024

 

Highest Low per Year
27.625     7-5-2019
26.187     26-7-2020
27.187     20-5-2021
25.937     19-7-2022
27.500     20-4-2023
28.625     29-4-2024

 

Highest High per Year
39.625     5-5-2019
40.500     22-4-2020
39.375     17-5-2021
37.937     28-4-2022
40.130     8-5-2023
39.560     24-4-2024

 

Lowest High per Year
23.312     8-12-2019
17.937     25-1-2020
18.625     12-1-2021
23.937     18-12-2022
24.687     13-3-2023
23.060     26-1-2024

 

While this year may well get hotter, the only trend is that it is getting progressively less cooler, especially in the cool season.

[dinsdale]

  On 4/29/2024 at 12:47 PM, mommysboy said:

Poster Dinsdale has provided the most succinct and factually accurate info though imo.

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Cheers.

 

 

[MangoKorat]

  On 4/29/2024 at 1:44 AM, webfact said:

and a strong southwesterly wind blowing at speeds of 5-15 km/hr. 

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Strong?  That's a gentle breeze!

[Bangkok Barry]

  On 4/29/2024 at 12:23 PM, GammaGlobulin said:

 

Hopefully, by next time around, when the same thing, or worse, happens again, they will have installed ACs...

 

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It's a toss-up, isn't it. Europe usually experiences only a few really hot days each year, so is the expense worth it? Same as us installing heating for the few really cold evenings in Thailand. I'd guess that many in Europe think of aircon as something of a luxury, especially with high electric charges there.

[GammaGlobulin]

  On 4/29/2024 at 1:37 PM, Bangkok Barry said:

 

It's a toss-up, isn't it. Europe usually experiences only a few really hot days each year, so is the expense worth it? Same as us installing heating for the few really cold evenings in Thailand. I'd guess that many in Europe think of aircon as something of a luxury, especially with high electric charges there.

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The expense is only worth it, to you, if you were to die due to heat stress.

It is not the same as Thailand installing heating.

We will not die from the frigid temperatures in BKK, most likely.

 

Anyway, it's a free world.

Install ACs if you wish.

Don't blame me if you get overheated.

The frequency of heatwaves is increasing.

 

Good Luck!

Chok Di!

 

 

[GammaGlobulin]

  On 4/29/2024 at 12:54 PM, dinsdale said:

How do you think average daily and monthly averages are calculated? Daily average is the average of  both maximum and minimum.

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But, this value, the average daily and monthly average, tells you nothing about the average minimum temperatures during the coolest time of the day, usually around 7AM.

 

And, it is EXACTLY THIS Minimum that Climate Scientists worry about, as well.  We are no longer seeing the cooler nights and early mornings that we once did. And, the effects of this can have severe consequences for humans.  I am sure that even you can understand their concern.  RIght?

 

 

Are you sure that you have studied university Statistics for the Natural Sciences?

Many a university student has failed Statistics, and it is a course that causes students much worry.

 

 

[arick]

  On 4/29/2024 at 9:35 AM, milesinnz said:

as regards human life or death... a couple of degrees can make the difference.. the effect of excess heat for humans is non-linear - go the extra bit and you are not just hotter.. you are dead..

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It's already been 44 for the last 3 days tomorrow should hit 45

[GammaGlobulin]

  On 4/29/2024 at 12:56 PM, NotEinstein said:

I've been recording the temperature in and around my house every 15 minutes for the last five years - this it what I can see to date:

Lowest Low per Year
9.562     8-12-2019
9.750     27-1-2020
11.750     14-1-2021
12.562     31-1-2022
13.125     8-1-2023
13.812     21-1-2024

 

Highest Low per Year
27.625     7-5-2019
26.187     26-7-2020
27.187     20-5-2021
25.937     19-7-2022
27.500     20-4-2023
28.625     29-4-2024

 

Highest High per Year
39.625     5-5-2019
40.500     22-4-2020
39.375     17-5-2021
37.937     28-4-2022
40.130     8-5-2023
39.560     24-4-2024

 

Lowest High per Year
23.312     8-12-2019
17.937     25-1-2020
18.625     12-1-2021
23.937     18-12-2022
24.687     13-3-2023
23.060     26-1-2024

 

While this year may well get hotter, the only trend is that it is getting progressively less cooler, especially in the cool season.

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So....

Have you been recording the Daily Minimum Temperature for all days of the year, during the past 5 years?

If so, then what can you say about the Daily Minimum Temperatures?

Are they the same, year on year, or are they gradually rising?

 

But still your data will not tell you much.

You need to have many well-placed temperature sensors throughout your region in order to avoid introducing artifacts due to things like the heat island effect, and other anomalies.

Weather is a very Fickle Thing....

 

 

[dinsdale]

  On 4/29/2024 at 2:00 PM, GammaGlobulin said:

But, this value, the average daily and monthly average, tells you nothing about the average minimum temperatures during the coolest time of the day, usually around 7AM

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For the last week the daily minimum (usually the overnight minimum) has been 29°C everyday. What do you think the average minimum for the week woulld be? The daily minimum alone tells you nothing about the daily average temperature and therefore tells you nothing about the average monthly temperature. Yes it's usually always coolest before dawn which tomorrow is 5:59 AM not "around 7AM" but I simply fail to see what this has got to do with April's temperatures. Hot days and hot nights. That's what's it's been for the entire month.

[NotEinstein]

  On 4/29/2024 at 2:10 PM, GammaGlobulin said:

 

So....

Have you been recording the Daily Minimum Temperature for all days of the year, during the past 5 years?

If so, then what can you say about the Daily Minimum Temperatures?

Are they the same, year on year, or are they gradually rising?

 

But still your data will not tell you much.

You need to have many well-placed temperature sensors throughout your region in order to avoid introducing artifacts due to things like the heat island effect, and other anomalies.

Weather is a very Fickle Thing....

 

 

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I have recorded the temperature every 15 minutes since 11th Jan 2019 at 5 different places around and inside my house so as to get an in-the-shade reading (no single place is in the shade all year round) as well as in direct sun. Each sensor is in its same environment - nothing has changed to skew readings during the 5 years.

 

The daily minimum temperatures are indeed rising, at least obviously during the cool season.

Here is at 6am and 10pm.....

 

[GammaGlobulin]

  On 4/29/2024 at 2:25 PM, NotEinstein said:

I have recorded the temperature every 15 minutes since 11th Jan 2019 at 5 different places around and inside my house so as to get an in-the-shade reading (no single place is in the shade all year round) as well as in direct sun. Each sensor is in its same environment - nothing has changed to skew readings during the 5 years.

 

The daily minimum temperatures are indeed rising, at least obviously during the cool season.

Here is at 6am and 10pm.....

 

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Nice!

Well Done!

 

Note:  Do you live close to or far from a city?

 

Note: Has the vegetation and tree cover remained basically the same during the past five years? (Has there been any significant clearing of land for agro purposes or building purposes near you?)

 

 

 

 

[Bangkok Barry]

  On 4/29/2024 at 1:45 PM, GammaGlobulin said:

Install ACs if you wish.

Don't blame me if you get overheated.

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It's not about me. It's about people who can't afford to install and run aircon in Europe. Have you heard that some, many, are struggling with the economy there? I guess not.

[NotEinstein]

  On 4/29/2024 at 2:26 PM, GammaGlobulin said:

 

Nice!

Well Done!

 

Note:  Do you live close to or far from a city?

 

Note: Has the vegetation and tree cover remained basically the same during the past five years? (Has there been any significant clearing of land for agro purposes or building purposes near you?)

 

 

 

 

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20 minutes south of Chiang Mai city center.

As I said - the immediate environment has not changed in any way that would effect the readings during the 5 years.

 

Here is max min and average per day:

 

[GammaGlobulin]

  On 4/29/2024 at 2:46 PM, Bangkok Barry said:

 

It's not about me. It's about people who can't afford to install and run aircon in Europe. Have you heard that some, many, are struggling with the economy there? I guess not.

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I have not.

And so, all the more reason for the governments to pay for ACs for those who are unable to afford it.

How much could it cost, anyway?

Not much.

 

It would not cost much for the gov to pay for and install small, high-efficiency room ACs in one room of each house, or any house that wanted one, providing that a financial need could be verified.

 

 

[GammaGlobulin]

  On 4/29/2024 at 2:51 PM, NotEinstein said:

20 minutes south of Chiang Mai city center.

As I said - the immediate environment has not changed in any way that would effect the readings during the 5 years.

 

Here is max min and average per day:

 

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Thank you, and I find your dedication remarkable, and your results very interesting.

 

 

 

[dinsdale]

  On 4/29/2024 at 1:45 PM, GammaGlobulin said:

 

The expense is only worth it, to you, if you were to die due to heat stress.

It is not the same as Thailand installing heating.

We will not die from the frigid temperatures in BKK, most likely.

 

Anyway, it's a free world.

Install ACs if you wish.

Don't blame me if you get overheated.

The frequency of heatwaves is increasing.

 

Good Luck!

Chok Di!

 

 

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The old and the poor can die from exposure especially upcountry when the cold season actually gets cold.

[Jim Jum]

  On 4/29/2024 at 12:10 PM, dinsdale said:

Having a look at historical data for Khon Kaen the monthly average temp is up about 2°C from April last year. This is not surprising because the daily maximums are constantly on the high side with no respite.

Monthly average for April 2023-31.5°C/April 2024-33.57°C. Bangkok April 2023-31.74°C/April 2024-33.05°C. It's not a huge difference and IMO can be put down to everyday being at the high end of daily maximums. Not due to unusually high temperatures.

https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/th/mueang-khon-kaen/VTUK/date/2023-4

 

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Well, I made my analysis between the historical averages and April 2024 data. If I understand the graph correctly:

- there's only one day in whole April 2024 when the daily maximum has not been higher than the historical average.

- on the last six days of April 2024 the daily maximum has been 5-7 degrees hotter than average.

 

The phenomenon seems quite similar regarding the lowest temperatures.

 

Correct me if I am wrong.

 

(https://weatherspark.com/h/m/149107/2024/4/Historical-Weather-in-April-2024-at-Khon-Kaen-Airport-Thailand#Figures-Temperature - "Khon Kaen Airport Temperature History April 2024").

[Neeranam]

  On 4/29/2024 at 4:47 AM, Enzian said:

Looking at the above, the heat is definitely affecting a lot of people. Meanwhile I'm sitting in Berkeley where it's currently 14C.

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Colder in Aberdeen.

[GammaGlobulin]

  On 4/29/2024 at 3:10 PM, dinsdale said:

The old and the poor can die from exposure especially upcountry when the cold season actually gets cold.

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Not to mention CO poisoning. 

 

Let's not underlay the effects of carbon-monoxide. 

 

 

[GammaGlobulin]

  On 4/29/2024 at 2:51 PM, NotEinstein said:

20 minutes south of Chiang Mai city center.

As I said - the immediate environment has not changed in any way that would effect the readings during the 5 years.

 

Here is max min and average per day:

 

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One other thought....

 

Originally, I had tried twice in this Topic to communicate the importance of DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE, and the fact that this range is changing due to Global Warming.

 

This is why I was interested in daily temperature minimums.

 

The Diurnal temp range is quite important for human health and the world economy, and for other important reasons.

 

So....

 

a. Climate change is closing daily temperature gap, clouds could be the cause

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/10/221025153358.htm

 

 

b. Asymmetric T Asymmetric Trends of Daily Maximum and Minimum T ends of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature

 

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/17228547.pdf

 

Enjoy the Heat...

While it lasts!

 

 

[Hanuman2547]

This is another reason why I try to escape from Thailand during the month of April.  

[NotEinstein]

  On 4/29/2024 at 8:56 PM, GammaGlobulin said:

 

 

One other thought....

 

Originally, I had tried twice in this Topic to communicate the importance of DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE, and the fact that this range is changing due to Global Warming.

 

This is why I was interested in daily temperature minimums.

 

The Diurnal temp range is quite important for human health and the world economy, and for other important reasons.

 

So....

 

a. Climate change is closing daily temperature gap, clouds could be the cause

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/10/221025153358.htm

 

 

b. Asymmetric T Asymmetric Trends of Daily Maximum and Minimum T ends of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature

 

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/17228547.pdf

 

Enjoy the Heat...

While it lasts!

 

 

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I'm interested in  obtaining facts when looking into phenomena. Trends can then be identified and used to debate what is occurring and why.

From what I can see, there is no maximum temperature increase, which the media shrieks and we think we feel. There is an obvious rate of increase of the minimum temperature during the cool season, so a kind of increase is occurring.

Another fact is that the planet is at the end of a period of ice-age (there is still ice at the poles to prove it), so getting progressively warmer shouldn't be a surprise. Have humans impacted the earth's climate? Probably, we have dramatically changed approx. 90% of the biomass. Is the burning of carbon-based, so called 'fossil fuels' an influence? maybe, but there are other more significant influences beyond our control, such as solar activity.

There is also the impact of 'global dimming', i.e. pollution we have generated in the atmosphere.

I remember when a few scientists were blaming CO2 and the politicians didn't want to know because there was no perceivable positive they could gain from it. Human inginuity being what it is, we have developed a whole new economy for those with power and influence to take advantage of, so here we are.

[RPCVguy]

  On 4/29/2024 at 10:59 AM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I have an Amazon Alexa device at home that gives me current temperatures for Bangkok in real time every day. That's been showing daily highs illustrated by the gray bar peaks right around 100 F., sometimes a bit above, sometimes a bit below, for many days now. And the below chart seems to confirm that.

 

 

https://weatherspark.com/h/m/113416/2024/4/Historical-Weather-in-April-2024-in-Bangkok-Thailand#Figures-Temperature

 

Seems as though past years in April, as illustrated by the peaks of the gray shaded bars, have been quite a bit cooler, though 2023 was warming up:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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  On 4/29/2024 at 11:19 AM, KhunLA said:

And yet, they look almost identical to me ... 

 

Nor has the average high changed in 40-70 years, all of 0.7°F

 

 

You do have to consider, there's a lot more concrete and buildings, holding and radiating temps, so without those, and ambient air, might even be less.

 

Maybe do comparison elsewhere in TH, that hasn't changed as much.

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Two posts with excellent detail to which I've extracted and commented upon why and how I see the comparisons need to be made.

The historical averages are increasing. they do so less rapidly near the coast than they do inland. Averages matter, but it is the peak temperatures in the tropics that stress the ability of humans to survive outside (or indoors if the power cuts off.)
The remnants of the El Niño that started last June are what are forecast to continue bothering SE Asia through most of May. If you have access to and are using air conditioning to modify your situation, enjoy it and appreciate its assistance. Many, many people in Thailand do not.
 

[Amethyst]

Several off-topic and bickering posts have been removed.

 

[ExpatOilWorker]

  On 4/29/2024 at 10:59 AM, TallGuyJohninBKK said:

I have an Amazon Alexa device at home that gives me current temperatures for Bangkok in real time every day. That's been showing daily highs illustrated by the gray bar peaks right around 100 F., sometimes a bit above, sometimes a bit below, for many days now. And the below chart seems to confirm that.

 

 

https://weatherspark.com/h/m/113416/2024/4/Historical-Weather-in-April-2024-in-Bangkok-Thailand#Figures-Temperature

 

Seems as though past years in April, as illustrated by the peaks of the gray shaded bars, have been quite a bit cooler, though 2023 was warming up:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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That is a fun site to explore, thanks for sharing.

Is precipitation data also available on that site?

I can see cloud cover and all sorts of weather data, but not rain.

 

Looks like 1950 had a few very hot days.

 

[mommysboy]

  On 4/29/2024 at 11:22 PM, NotEinstein said:

I'm interested in  obtaining facts when looking into phenomena. Trends can then be identified and used to debate what is occurring and why.

From what I can see, there is no maximum temperature increase, which the media shrieks and we think we feel. There is an obvious rate of increase of the minimum temperature during the cool season, so a kind of increase is occurring.

Another fact is that the planet is at the end of a period of ice-age (there is still ice at the poles to prove it), so getting progressively warmer shouldn't be a surprise. Have humans impacted the earth's climate? Probably, we have dramatically changed approx. 90% of the biomass. Is the burning of carbon-based, so called 'fossil fuels' an influence? maybe, but there are other more significant influences beyond our control, such as solar activity.

There is also the impact of 'global dimming', i.e. pollution we have generated in the atmosphere.

I remember when a few scientists were blaming CO2 and the politicians didn't want to know because there was no perceivable positive they could gain from it. Human inginuity being what it is, we have developed a whole new economy for those with power and influence to take advantage of, so here we are.

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Humidity?  

[NotEinstein]

  On 4/30/2024 at 6:25 AM, mommysboy said:

 

Humidity?  

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Yes, I know humidity has a major effect on how we humans feel and are endangered when it comes to higher temperatures.

If I had a wet bulb thermometer system I would add that, but I don't. The humidity monitor I had failed after a couple of years.

From occasional observation I would say that the humidity hasn't changed much year on year, it going up during the evening, and with rain obviously having the biggest impact. 31% in my house now.