Latest developments and discussion of recent events in the Ukraine War

[Social Media]

Mutiple posts containg false claims removed from the same poster along with a misquoted post.

[Seppius]

1 hour ago, Cameroni said:

I predicted it and it's already starting. Donor nations to stop funding Ukraine:

 

Germany's FAZ reports Germany to halt military aid to Ukraine.

 

"Germany to halt new Ukraine military aid: Report

 

The ban, which is already in place, will affect all new requests for assistance to Kyiv, Germany’s FAZ newspaper reported."

 

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-halt-new-ukraine-military-aid-report-war-russia/

Germany refutes report that it will stop additional aid to Ukraine

Germany will continue to support Ukraine in its defence against Russia’s invasion for as long as necessary, according to a spokesman for the finance ministry in Berlin.

 

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/global-stocks/germany-refutes-report-it-will-stop-additional-aid-ukraine

 

[Cameroni]

Just now, Seppius said:

Germany refutes report that it will stop additional aid to Ukraine

Germany will continue to support Ukraine in its defence against Russia’s invasion for as long as necessary, according to a spokesman for the finance ministry in Berlin.

 

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/global-stocks/germany-refutes-report-it-will-stop-additional-aid-ukraine

 

 

Germany has stopped funding Ukraine by 50 percent, at best Ukraine will get 4 billion from Germany, not 8 as before.

 

"Berlin, which is Europe's main supplier of military aid to Kyiv, had already signaled a change in course on Ukraine last month, when the governing coalition of the Social Democrats, the Greens and the Liberals adopted a preliminary deal on a draft budget for 2025. The compromise seen by POLITICO detailed plans to slash future assistance to Ukraine by half to €4 billion to fulfill other spending priorities."

https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-halt-new-ukraine-military-aid-report-war-russia/

 

[Cameroni]

4 minutes ago, Seppius said:

Germany refutes report that it will stop additional aid to Ukraine

Germany will continue to support Ukraine in its defence against Russia’s invasion for as long as necessary, according to a spokesman for the finance ministry in Berlin.

 

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/global-stocks/germany-refutes-report-it-will-stop-additional-aid-ukraine

 

 

From your own link:

 

"In his letter to the defence ministry, Lindner downplayed the impact of the move, suggesting that funds could be made available to Kyiv from frozen Russian central bank assets. Still, it’s unclear how those resources could be tapped amid ongoing legal issues, the FAZ reported.

Under current plans, Germany’s military support for Ukraine — second only to the US, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy — is set to be almost halved next year and then reduced to less than a tenth of the current amount in 2027, the newspaper reported. "

 

So not only is Germany halving its funding for Ukraine by half, in due course Germany plans to reduce funding to less than one tenth of the current funding. 

 

 

[Mavideol]

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Drones strike Russian airbase as Putin’s forces suffer significant losses in Kursk

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-live-joint-033914158.html

 

[Mavideol]

Ukraine advances in Russia as Moscow mayor accuses Kyiv of ‘one of largest ever’ drone attacks

 

https://au.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-advances-russia-moscow-mayor-071848485.html

[Mavideol]

Russian Jets Damaged In Ukrainian Long-Range Drone Attack On Air Base

https://www.yahoo.com/news/russian-jets-damaged-ukrainian-long-004031051.html

 

[Mavideol]

Drone attack sets fire at Russian military airfield

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/drone-attack-sets-fire-russian-091008916.html

 

[Mavideol]

Ukraine says it destroyed glide bombs at a Russian air base that aircraft fly out of to bomb the front lines

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-says-destroyed-glide-bombs-162439573.html

 

[Mavideol]

Ferry loaded with fuel sinks at Russian port after Ukrainian attack

https://www.yahoo.com/news/fire-breaks-russian-port-ukrainian-154000996.html

 

[Mavideol]

Ship Full Of Fuel Train Cars Detonates In Russian Port, Ukrainian Neptune Missile Suspected (Updated)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ship-full-fuel-train-cars-211252568.html

[ballpoint]

19 minutes ago, Mavideol said:

Ship Full Of Fuel Train Cars Detonates In Russian Port, Ukrainian Neptune Missile Suspected (Updated)

https://www.yahoo.com/news/ship-full-fuel-train-cars-211252568.html

 

According to this video, it was the last remaining ferry operating between Crimea and the Russian mainland. Russia now has a problem getting heavy loads across, as the damaged bridge isn't up to it.

 

[Jingthing]

Watched likely future President Harris speech and while no specifics it gave the impression that her administration would be even more pro Ukraine than under Biden!

[beautifulthailand99]

The Kremlin is close to crushing Pokrovsk, a vital Ukrainian town - Even as Ukraine raids Russia, it is losing another key battle -The Economist

 

 

https://archive.is/xGgEx#selection-945.0-949.61

 

Ukrainian commanders give different reasons for the Russian advance. Some say there aren’t enough shells, with the enemy firing up to ten times as many. Others point to Russian tactics—small infantry assaults, glide bombs, new types of electronic warfare. But exhaustion and manpower issues seem to be at the heart of the collapse. “People aren’t made of steel,” says Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko. Ukrainian troops, outnumbered 4:1, aren’t getting any rest, he says. Some stay on the front lines for 30 or 40 days at a time, cramped in foxholes inches from death. “Dublin,” a fighter attached to the 59th brigade south-east of Pokrovsk, knows soldiers who have been in place for more than two months. Two had strokes. Ukraine’s problems are compounded by “idiotic” orders, he says.

[beautifulthailand99]

Latest FT take on German aid

 

The difference between the Germans on the one hand and the British/Americans on the other hand is that the Germans actually know what losing a war is like. And specifically they have first hand experience in being in a hot war against an inexhaustible Russia. The Americans/Brits have never been defeated in a war and seen their homeland destroyed as a consequence. The former leads to caution. The latter leads to hubris and the misguided idea that winning a war is a solely matter of choice, not a matter of the real balance of power and what happens on the battlefield.

 

https://archive.is/Nqj03

 

Scholz also seems determined to stymie the EU as it seeks a greater role in defence industry collaboration, vital if Europe is to improve its capabilities. The chancellor objected to any discussion of defence projects when EU leaders met in June to review the bloc’s strategic agenda, according to two European diplomats. The European Commission’s ambitions to create a defence industry fund of up to €100bn through joint EU borrowing has met a wall of German resistance.

 

Because this is what the war is costing them and if the German industrial engine collapses then so does the Euro and the southern EU countries economoes along with it.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-01/four-in-ten-german-manufacturers-eye-move-abroad-on-energy-costs

 

Four in ten German manufacturers are considering limiting production or relocating abroad amid uncertainty over the nation’s future energy supplies and crippling bureaucracy, according to a survey.

Energy-intensive firms and those with more than 500 employees are particularly prone to such considerations, according to a report by the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce, with about half looking at curbing production or leaving Germany.

[Cameroni]

10 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

The Kremlin is close to crushing Pokrovsk, a vital Ukrainian town - Even as Ukraine raids Russia, it is losing another key battle -The Economist

 

 

https://archive.is/xGgEx#selection-945.0-949.61

 

Ukrainian commanders give different reasons for the Russian advance. Some say there aren’t enough shells, with the enemy firing up to ten times as many. Others point to Russian tactics—small infantry assaults, glide bombs, new types of electronic warfare. But exhaustion and manpower issues seem to be at the heart of the collapse. “People aren’t made of steel,” says Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko. Ukrainian troops, outnumbered 4:1, aren’t getting any rest, he says. Some stay on the front lines for 30 or 40 days at a time, cramped in foxholes inches from death. “Dublin,” a fighter attached to the 59th brigade south-east of Pokrovsk, knows soldiers who have been in place for more than two months. Two had strokes. Ukraine’s problems are compounded by “idiotic” orders, he says.

From the Economist article itself:

 

"Ukraine’s surprise mini-invasion of Russia provokes mixed feelings. Dublin says early successes lifted morale. But it didn’t last. The hope that Russia might respond by moving troops from Pokrovsk has been supplanted by the realisation that it has not. Ukrainian security sources confirm that while Russia has moved troops from other sections of the eastern front line, it reinforced around Pokrovsk. Ukraine meanwhile redeployed special forces units to Kursk, and is patching up the Pokrovsk front with untested formations. “The Russians have figured things out and aren’t taking the bait,” complains Dublin.

 

The defenders of Pokrovsk are reluctant to say how long they can hold out. The Russians may take weeks or months to get past outlying towns like Myrnohrad, Selydove, and Ukrainsk, all now haunted by drones, artillery and bomber planes. The advance has slowed since August 19th, says Oleksandr, a drone commander with the 110th brigade, who watches the battlefield from his screens. But the Russians have a habit of pouncing on weak spots to devastating effect, he warns. It seems only a matter of time before Pokrovsk is crushed like Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka."

 

And some say Russia is not winning the war. Bizarre.

[beautifulthailand99]

18 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

From the Economist article itself:

 

"Ukraine’s surprise mini-invasion of Russia provokes mixed feelings. Dublin says early successes lifted morale. But it didn’t last. The hope that Russia might respond by moving troops from Pokrovsk has been supplanted by the realisation that it has not. Ukrainian security sources confirm that while Russia has moved troops from other sections of the eastern front line, it reinforced around Pokrovsk. Ukraine meanwhile redeployed special forces units to Kursk, and is patching up the Pokrovsk front with untested formations. “The Russians have figured things out and aren’t taking the bait,” complains Dublin.

 

The defenders of Pokrovsk are reluctant to say how long they can hold out. The Russians may take weeks or months to get past outlying towns like Myrnohrad, Selydove, and Ukrainsk, all now haunted by drones, artillery and bomber planes. The advance has slowed since August 19th, says Oleksandr, a drone commander with the 110th brigade, who watches the battlefield from his screens. But the Russians have a habit of pouncing on weak spots to devastating effect, he warns. It seems only a matter of time before Pokrovsk is crushed like Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka."

 

And some say Russia is not winning the war. Bizarre.

With NATO weapons and help they are achieving stunning PR victories and have shown initially they can put up a heroic fight but in the end it comes down to stamina,resources and manpower and it looks like they are nearly out of all 3. That video I posted from the ex head of the British army 2 years ago said trade land (which was fuill of pro Russian settlers anyway) for lasting peace. But the uber nationalost diehards and their power demanded not one inch. So here we are a country ravaged , an ecomomy destroyed, and a population in which the young women and their children have fled probably never to return. Beware of Americans bearing weapons and promsies, they will ultimately betray you. The last real war that they won was WW2 and that was with Russian help !

[Cameroni]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

With NATO weapons and help they are achieving stunning PR victories and have shown initially they can put up a heroic fight but in the end it comes down to stamina,resources and manpower and it looks like they are nearly out of all 3. That video I posted from the ex head of the British army 2 years ago said trade land (which was fuill of pro Russian settlers anyway) for lasting peace. But the uber nationalost diehards and their power demanded not one inch. So here we are a country ravaged , an ecomomy destroyed, and a population in which the young women and their children have fled probably never to return. Beware of Americans bearing weapons and promsies, they will ultimately betray you. The last real war that they won was WW2 and that was with Russian help !

 

I agree 100%, the fight by the Ukrainians is nothing short of heroic. However, their economy is one tenth the size of Russia, they are running out of manpower too. Their country is largely destroyed. The billions the Americans cynically pour in, knowing full that the Ukraine can never win, are just meant to weaken Russia. Indeed a negotiated peace for land would be by far the rational option, but Ukrainian nationalists who insist on not ceding an inch are to blame for those peace negotiations not happening.

[coolcarer]

13 hours ago, Cameroni said:

Well the nukes are the ultimate insurance for Putin of course, if things did go very badly for Russia on the battlefield they have over 5000 nukes they can use on Ukraine, knowing the US could not retaliate in kind. So the winner of this conflict was always going to be Russia. 

Gawd. Keep convincing youself with that crystal ball.

[beautifulthailand99]

18 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

I agree 100%, the fight by the Ukrainians is nothing short of heroic. However, their economy is one tenth the size of Russia, they are running out of manpower too. Their country is largely destroyed. The billions the Americans cynically pour in, knowing full that the Ukraine can never win, are just meant to weaken Russia. Indeed a negotiated peace for land would be by far the rational option, but Ukrainian nationalists who insist on not ceding an inch are to blame for those peace negotiations not happening.

There is a video I've forgotten where where Zelesnkiy before the war goes to meet the head of AZOV (the one that hadn't been whitewashed yet!)   somewhere in the Donbass and his troops and the AZOV head threatens him if he gives up anything to the Russians ( he was elected on a bring peace to Ukraine ticket and is a Russian speaker) then he was toast. There is a stand up row where Zelenkiy stands his ground. If the war is lost these forces will come to the fore with fearsome miltias and war lords ruling their fiefdoms and a probable target on Zelenkiy's head.

 

https://archive.is/0V65h - written over a year ago.

 

 Indeed, given the likelihood of a prolonged military stalemate between Ukraine and Russia—and the fact that, the longer the war drags on, the longer elections can be delayed under martial law—Zelensky may feel less pressure to consider diplomatic measures than he did in the early days of the conflict. Perhaps Zelensky’s biggest moral failure will prove to be prolonging a war that in a year or two won’t look any different on the ground, save for much larger cemeteries on both sides.
 

[Cameroni]

10 minutes ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

There is a video I've forgotten where where Zelesnkiy before the war goes to meet the head of AZOV (the one that hadn't been whitewashed yet!)   somewhere in the Donbass and his troops and the AZOV head threatens him if he gives up anything to the Russians ( he was elected on a bring peace to Ukraine ticket and is a Russian speaker) then he was toast. There is a stand up row where Zelenkiy stands his ground. If the war is lost these forces will come to the fore with fearsome miltias and war lords ruling their fiefdoms and a probable target on Zelenkiy's head.

 

https://archive.is/0V65h - written over a year ago.

 

 Indeed, given the likelihood of a prolonged military stalemate between Ukraine and Russia—and the fact that, the longer the war drags on, the longer elections can be delayed under martial law—Zelensky may feel less pressure to consider diplomatic measures than he did in the early days of the conflict. Perhaps Zelensky’s biggest moral failure will prove to be prolonging a war that in a year or two won’t look any different on the ground, save for much larger cemeteries on both sides.
 

 

Clearly in this war Zelensky does depend in part on the nationalist militias like the Azov brigade, and undoubtedly their influence is not a positive one. Another excellent article.

[beautifulthailand99]

3 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

Clearly in this war Zelensky does depend in part on the nationalist militias like the Azov brigade, and undoubtedly their influence is not a positive one. Another excellent article.

I found the link - these are the malign forces which will destroy him should he falter.

 

“Listen, Denys, I’m the president of this country. I’m 41 years old. I’m not a loser. I came to you and told you: remove the weapons. Don’t shift the conversation to some protests,” Zelensky said, videos of the exchange show. As he said this, Zelensky aggressively approached Yantar, who heads the National Corps, a political offshoot of the far-right Azov volunteer battalion, in Mykolaiv city.

“But we’ve discussed that,” Yantar said.

“I wanted to see understanding in your eyes. But, instead, I saw a guy who’s decided that this is some loser standing in front of him,” Zelensky said.

 

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/6652

[Cameroni]

1 minute ago, beautifulthailand99 said:

I found the link - these are the malign forces which will destroy him should he falter.

 

“Listen, Denys, I’m the president of this country. I’m 41 years old. I’m not a loser. I came to you and told you: remove the weapons. Don’t shift the conversation to some protests,” Zelensky said, videos of the exchange show. As he said this, Zelensky aggressively approached Yantar, who heads the National Corps, a political offshoot of the far-right Azov volunteer battalion, in Mykolaiv city.

“But we’ve discussed that,” Yantar said.

“I wanted to see understanding in your eyes. But, instead, I saw a guy who’s decided that this is some loser standing in front of him,” Zelensky said.

 

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/6652

 

It does make you like Zelensky though, he does have a modicum of courage. Will he have enough courage to go against the nationalist militias that support him, and negotiate for peace, well his survival may depend on how they behave. 

 

Great article. Good work.

[beautifulthailand99]

5 minutes ago, Cameroni said:

 

It does make you like Zelensky though, he does have a modicum of courage. Will he have enough courage to go against the nationalist militias that support him, and negotiate for peace, well his survival may depend on how they behave. 

 

Great article. Good work.

It's more than a modicum or else his greatest act and probably a combination of both.

[coolcarer]

Not the sleekest looking drones but 750 km range! Geat for going deep inside Russia

 

Ukrainian engineers have established the production of AQ 400 Scythe kamikaze drones with a flight range of 750 km, a payload of up to 70 kg.

https://x.com/EuromaidanPR/status/1826572271554527302

 

[zmisha]

13 hours ago, Cameroni said:

Well the nukes are the ultimate insurance for Putin of course, if things did go very badly for Russia on the battlefield they have over 5000 nukes they can use on Ukraine, knowing the US could not retaliate in kind. So the winner of this conflict was always going to be Russia. 

You can see that both you and your opponents agree that Russia has 5000 nukes.

But there is a difference.
You think Russian CAN use the 5000 nukes, but your opponents are sure that Russia CAN NOT. Yes, this is that simple.
Your opponents are sure that Kim Jong Un will launch its nukes in case of danger but Russia will not. That's why they prefer to make agreements with North Korea, but for Russia they have HIMARS, F16 and tomahawks. It's an obviously fact that you should see finally.

[Danderman123]

22 hours ago, Cameroni said:

 

Russia advancing much easier on the main front, with Ukraine having experienced troops tied down in Kursk.

 

"Civilians with small children in their arms and lugging heavy suitcases fled Monday from Ukraine’s eastern city of Pokrovsk, where the Russian army was bearing down fast despite a lightning Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region.

Local authorities said Russian forces were advancing so quickly that families were under orders to leave the city and other nearby towns and villages starting Tuesday. "

 

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-evacuation-order-pokrovsk-b8c4c6cc0dd81658fecdf1c83145908d

Ukraine has been fighting a war of attrition against the Russians in southern Ukraine, trading land for Russian troops and vehicles.

 

Russia will reach a culmination point at some point, and then it's all over for Putin.

[johng]

Just now, Danderman123 said:

Russia will reach a culmination point at some point, and then it's all over for Putin.

It will be all over for Zelensky and Ukraine.

[RayC]

Not exactly the most objective of interviewees, but an interesting listen nonetheless.

 

https://on.ft.com/4dzrxSo

 

(Note: Comments about MSM bias are unnecessary. They are taken as given)

[Bkk Brian]

Putin did not expect this, wants some of them back 

 

Frontline report: Russia initiates POW exchange talks after Ukraine captures 2,000+ Russian soldiers in Kursk Oblast
Ukraine captured over 2,000 Russian soldiers in Kursk, prompting Russia to initiate prisoner exchange negotiations for the first time. Ukrainian Military Intelligence prioritizes the return of seriously wounded, ill individuals, and long-term captives, while Russian focus remains on conscripts.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/08/19/frontline-report-russia-initiates-pow-exchange-talks-after-ukraine-captures-2000-russian-soldiers-in-kursk-oblast/

 

Ukraine's capture of hundreds of Russian conscripts in Kursk region undermines Putin's war rhetoric

In a northern Ukrainian prison, young Russian conscripts captured during Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory await their fate. Ukraine sees them as crucial bargaining chips, while their families back in Russia are demanding their swift return.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240820-ukraine-capture-russian-conscripts-kursk-region-undermines-putin-war-rhetoric-pows