The chatter has stepped up suddenly about what are Washington's targets; 4 islands, none of which are Kharg or Qeshm, and 3 are technically not Iranian. Larek Island: Small island, with a small Arab fishing village built around an old Portuguese castle. Some small ecolodges. Home to a IRGC unit with Silkworm anti-shipping missiles. Iran has been directing shipping north of the island, out of the normal shipping lane, apparently because its easier for the Iranians to check the ships, and let them pass. Its the so-called Tehran Tollbooth. Its small size and relative ease of access from the Gulf of Oman could make this straightforward for an assault force of say 5000 to take and hold. Iran will find this difficult to reinforce by sea, due to only 2 small harbours used by the fishermen. Some terrific looking beaches. Besides denying Iran the ability force shipping closer inshore. Larek could be regarded as FOB Larek. I suspect the war might soon enter a queiet phase. The Americans seem to be each adjusting their assessment of how many missile sites have been destroyed. Currently down from 99% to 90% or less. I suspect they don't know how many there were to start with.. The remaining sites will be harder and harder to find, exposing crews to more and more risk. The language has moved from "complete control of the skies" to "almost complete control". And as time goes on, there is increased risk of mechanical failures, accidents. Americans have always been risk averse. There is going to be a talking phase, whether or not the Iranians will admit to it. But the MEU can't remain at sea for all that long. The other islands are Abu Musa and Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tun. These lie on the Western approaches to the Straits of Hormuz. A history lesson is needed. In the late 60s, Britain was winding down its presence in the Persian Gulf, granting independance to the Trucial States (which would become the UAE) and Bahrain (where the Royal Navy maintained a permanent base). When the Shah got wind that the British were leaving, he made threats to seize the islands, entailing a 3 year British naval presence in the area to deter the Imperial Iranian Navy, complicated when the Emirates fell out with each other over oil (forcing the Navy to take action against the oil companies drilling, to not precipitate Iranian action. At one point the Shah was threatening to shoot down the Royal Navy maritime patrol aircraft. These island were important to Iran, because even then, the Shah wanted to control the Strait (the Mullahs didn't invent the idea. Iran will ALWAYS want to control the Strait). But the UAE couldn't organise a pissup in a brewery , and as soon as the Royal Navy stepped out of the Gulf, the Shah invaded. In 2019, the Iranians use Abu Musa as a staging point to try an seize a Britisn oil tanker, forcing HMS Montrose to intercede. The island now is an enormous Iranian naval base. Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari, who commanded the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) for eight years until April 2019, referred to Abu Musa Island as the "Beating Heart of Iran". Abu Musa may serve as the crux of Iran’s asymmetric warfare operations in the Persian Gulf. Greater and Lesser Tunb are smaller, but also look armed to the teeth. All 3 islands have significant airport facilties. https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2343&context=nwc-review
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