What's behind the current THB strength?

[KhunBENQ]

EUR USD GBP...

all falling sharply during the last few days. So seemingly a strengthening THB.

Who has an idea what's behind?

Edited August 2 by KhunBENQ

[KhunBENQ]

 

 

 

 

Edited August 2 by KhunBENQ

[chiang mai]

I believe this is a Fed rate issue. The Fed has indicated rates will fall, beginning September, markets have penciled in three rate cuts this year. That means USD value falls as the return on cash is less attractive and should mean that US equities will increase in value.

[Pouatchee]

ask @BuddyPish he SAYS he earns his living on currency speculation. be careful, he is rich and scoffs at people who actually care about the ups and downs of currencies

[BuddyPish]

21 hours ago, Pouatchee said:

ask @BuddyPish he SAYS he earns his living on currency speculation. be careful, he is rich and scoffs at people who actually care about the ups and downs of currencies

Boo Hoo. Still crying? 🤣

[BuddyPish]

Western currencies are weakening as the prospect of interest rate cuts make them less attractive to investors.
Perfect example is the Bank of England cutting 25 basis points yesterday; that's reflected in today's GBPTHB cross.

Fed expected to cut next month 

 

The rate cutting cycle has begun and typically, western currencies weaken so if your finances are vulnerable to small fluctuations in the Thai baht's exchange rate with the currency your income is denominated in, you'd better be prepared to tighten your belt.

 

[david555]

4 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

EUR USD GBP...

all falling sharply during the last few days. So seemingly a strengthening THB.

Who has an idea what's behind?

Just look at the European gold price a kilo 73131 €

https://amsterdamgold.com/

[Pouatchee]

20 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

Boo Hoo. Still crying? 🤣

 

still passing stupid comments with emojis cos you cant express yourself?

[Pouatchee]

20 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

Fed expected to cut next month 

 

21 hours ago, chiang mai said:

I believe this is a Fed rate issue. The Fed has indicated rates will fall, beginning September, markets have penciled in three rate cuts this year.

 

great copy cat comment off @chiang mai i thought you would be better than that. guess i was wrong

[Srikcir]

17 hours ago, KhunBENQ said:

So seemingly

In a short time span.

Overall since the May 2014 military coup the baht has yet to recover.

Thailand is still in a military coup recession.

[1FinickyOne]

14 hours ago, Sticky Rice Balls said:

enjoys last bite of steak....stocks up on mama cups....sticky rice awaits...minus nam prik

I don't even like when other people eat nam prik - - their breath can overtake a car... 

[koolkarl]

Thai central bank intervention.  No doubt they have arranged swap lines with with other central banks, so the Thai central bank can sell other currencies at will

and buy the baht.  The advantage of a fiat currency system.  If all countries were back on the gold standard, this deception would be impossible.  With such a huge interest rate gap between the US and Thailand, normally the baht would have fallen off a cliff. 

[FlorC]

So we were told that there would be some more explaining about Thai tax in July.

I waited to exchange and/or send money from europe .

Nothing about the tax in july ! 

 

So now I get scr-wed twice , stronger baht and tax on it ?

Great !

Lucky I have 6 months to go under the 800K retirement hostage money.

But maybe the baht will go up even more.

[Caldera]

Maybe the world is finally buying into the Thai soft power ploy. 

[Lacessit]

The AUD has gone from 24.5 baht to 23 in the last month, maybe it's time for a comeback by Adumbration.

One thing for sure about currency exchange rates. They fluctuate.

[chiang mai]

35 minutes ago, FlorC said:

So we were told that there would be some more explaining about Thai tax in July.

I waited to exchange and/or send money from europe .

Nothing about the tax in july ! 

 

So now I get scr-wed twice , stronger baht and tax on it ?

Great !

Lucky I have 6 months to go under the 800K retirement hostage money.

But maybe the baht will go up even more.

I didn't see that any tax news was due in July, where did you read that?

 

As US interest rates fall this year, the value of USD will weaken and become less attractive to investors. That will benefit emerging markets and developing economies who import oil and are dependent on exports, aka countries like Thailand. Yes of course the Baht will gain value against USD this year, potentially to the low 30's. But that doesn't mean that THB will have strengthened by anything related to the Thai economy, the increase in Baht value will result from events that are completely outside of Thailand's control or influence.

Edited August 3 by chiang mai

[FlorC]

^ I read that here on the forum a while back. 

It made sence that they would elaborate about the tax for us expats (>180 days) tax residents.

So I waited to send money .

Maybe the baht will come down again after the 10 K scheme is in action.

Thai interest rates are low , US rates high.

Industry is in a bit of a slum here.

Certainly in the car industry and tourism is only 18 % .

[CMBob]

18 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

.......As US interest rates increase this year....

Actually, US interest rates have remained steady (and somewhat high) so far this year and the expectation is the Fed will begin to lower rates next month.

Fairly normal for the value of a US dollar (compared to foreign currencies) to rise as the Fed raises interest rates and to react in the opposite direction as rates fall (and fairly normal that an increase/decrease will occur when just the expectation of Fed action reaches a certain level).  

Edited August 3 by CMBob

[KhunLA]

I never think it's about THB strength, and more about other currencies weakening.  Can only speak about the USD, and govt keeps printing money and accumulating more debt.   That certainly has to lower the value of the USD.

Edited August 3 by KhunLA

[chiang mai]

1 minute ago, CMBob said:

Actually, US interest rates have remained steady (and somewhat high) so far this year and the expectation is the Fed will begin to lower rates next month.

Fairly normal for the value of a US dollar (compared to foreign currencies) to rise as US interest rise and to react in the opposite direction as rates fall (and fairly normal that an increase/decrease will occur when just the expectation of Fed action reaches a certain level).  

I initially wrote "increase" when I intended to say "fall", I'm not quite sure why I did that but it's now fixed..

[chiang mai]

4 minutes ago, KhunLA said:

I never think it's about THB strength, and more about other currencies weakening.  Can only speak about the USD, and govt keeps printing money and accumulating more debt.   That certainly has to lower the value of the USD.

The Dollar Index reflects USD value and that confirms USD has been falling. The current weakening however is more about expectations of what will follow rather than what is happening at this moment. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

 

 

 

Edited August 3 by chiang mai

[BuddyPish]

19 hours ago, Sticky Rice Balls said:

enjoys last bite of steak....stocks up on mama cups....sticky rice awaits...minus nam prik

You joke but there are many migrants who live here on 15k a month.

Just wait until the authorities here decide to raise the financial requirement to qualify for a long-term visa/extension like retirement or marriage.

[Man Mart]

In relation to sterling, it’s been a result of the anticipated and the actual cut in UK interest rates on Thursday. 

Edited August 3 by Man Mart

[harryviking]

I see the western currencies FALLING against the baht....

[helloagain]

On 8/2/2024 at 12:05 PM, KhunBENQ said:

EUR USD GBP...

all falling sharply during the last few days. So seemingly a strengthening THB.

Who has an idea what's behind?

It's manipulated. 

[Dcheech]

Wall St dropped 600 pts on Friday. There was a sell off the day before that & jittery for the entire week just ended. That certainly affected $ to B rate.

 

Edited August 3 by Dcheech

[bkk_mike]

I'm just glad we bought our house when it was 60+ baht to the pound rather than now.

[Digitalbanana]

1 hour ago, harryviking said:

I see the western currencies FALLING against the baht....

How did you acquire this clairvoyant skill-set? The value of the USD and thus the THB exchange rate is influenced by a range of factors, including the strength of the U.S. economy, inflation, trade balances, and geopolitical events, among others.

[BuddyPish]

1 hour ago, helloagain said:

It's manipulated. 

 

ALL currencies are manipulated.

That's what central banks do and none more blatantly than the US Federal Reserve, the BoJ, BoE and the ECB.
What is quantitative easing if not deliberate manipulation?

 

[Unamerican]

23 hours ago, chiang mai said:

I believe this is a Fed rate issue. The Fed has indicated rates will fall, beginning September, markets have penciled in three rate cuts this year. That means USD value falls as the return on cash is less attractive and should mean that US equities will increase in value.

U.K. also has had a rate drop.