What's behind the current THB strength?

[Unamerican]

22 hours ago, david555 said:

Just look at the European gold price a kilo 73131 €

https://amsterdamgold.com/

Exactly how is that connected? 

[sandyf]

2 hours ago, Man Mart said:

In relation to sterling, it’s been a result of the anticipated and the actual cut in UK interest rates on Thursday. 

Probably more to do with the £20 billion black hole. The recent decline against the USD started on 17th July, the day of RRs Mansion House speech.

[Unamerican]

7 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Probably more to do with the £20 billion black hole. The recent decline against the USD started on 17th July, the day of RRs Mansion House speech.

What’s decline?  What has thid got to do with the Thai Baht?? 

[chiang mai]

7 minutes ago, Unamerican said:

What’s decline?  What has thid got to do with the Thai Baht?? 

The THB doesn't have a direct relationship with THB and must derive its exchange rate from a combination of USD/GBP and USD/THB. In that respect, THB value is impacted by movement in either USD or GBP. GBP/THB is a cross rate.

[ElwoodP]

Please don't attack each other.

Be polite and civil at all times to all other posters.

 

Several posts removed.

[sandyf]

21 minutes ago, Unamerican said:

What’s decline?  What has thid got to do with the Thai Baht?? 

Obviously you find context an alien concept.

[Unamerican]

35 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Obviously you find context an alien concept.

Possibly — but please, anyways, explain the particular use of context here! 

[gamb00ler]

On 8/2/2024 at 4:42 PM, Pouatchee said:

great copy cat comment off @chiang mai i thought you would be better than that. guess i was wrong

so the only way to avoid an accusal of plagiarism is to avoid holding and expressing the same opinion as someone else?   I'm beginning to understand AN better these days.

[connda]

EUR USD GBP weakness?

[david555]

2 hours ago, Unamerican said:

Exactly how is that connected? 

As they can not print gold ....as they do with  paper money ...😁

Edited August 3 by david555

[chiang mai]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

The THB doesn't have a direct relationship with THB and must derive its exchange rate from a combination of USD/GBP and USD/THB. In that respect, THB value is impacted by movement in either USD or GBP. GBP/THB is a cross rate.

The above should read, GBP does not have a direct relationship with THB.

 

Apologies

[Pouatchee]

1 hour ago, gamb00ler said:

so the only way to avoid an accusal of plagiarism is to avoid holding and expressing the same opinion as someone else?   I'm beginning to understand AN better these days.

 

normally no one cares. the exception is know-it-alls like the guy i called a copy cat. this guy thinks that if foreigners are worried about the western currencies losing ground then said foreigners are too poor to be in thailand and should stay home. 

 

about AN there is nothing to understand. if you are not happy here give teakboor a try... then youll really be confused on top of being insulted 😉

this place is still much nicer

Edited August 3 by Pouatchee

[thesetat2013]

4 hours ago, Digitalbanana said:

How did you acquire this clairvoyant skill-set? The value of the USD and thus the THB exchange rate is influenced by a range of factors, including the strength of the U.S. economy, inflation, trade balances, and geopolitical events, among others.

Perhaps it is devaluing because of the polls with Harris. All I know is my money is less 3000 baht this month. Hope it changes for the better soon.  

[BuddyPish]

28 minutes ago, Pouatchee said:

 

normally no one cares. the exception is know-it-alls like the guy i called a copy cat. this guy thinks that if foreigners are worried about the western currencies losing ground then said foreigners are too poor to be in thailand and should stay home. 

 

 

 

Boo Hoo

[Pouatchee]

2 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

 

Boo Hoo

 

a real poet

[Dave0206]

I am not complaining yet 4 years ago when I knew thailand would be my retirement home gbp was @ 41 it had been lower.chf was 34 now 40.5 .the dollar was hovering around 31 so fluctuations is nothing new we all dream of the return of the 72 per pound but I can live with 45gbp and 40 for chf

[chiang mai]

On 8/3/2024 at 5:54 AM, Srikcir said:

In a short time span.

Overall since the May 2014 military coup the baht has yet to recover.

Thailand is still in a military coup recession.

I didn't care for your graph at all so I thought it sensible to post one that portrays reality! As you can easily see, the value of THB did improve following the 2014 coup but subsequent external events weakened the currency pair.

 

https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=THB&view=10Y

 

[Lazybones]

On 8/2/2024 at 12:07 PM, KhunBENQ said:

 

 

 

 

 

[Lazybones]

Just now, Lazybones said:

 

Same with AUD

[Chivas]

23 hours ago, BuddyPish said:

 

ALL currencies are manipulated.

That's what central banks do and none more blatantly than the US Federal Reserve, the BoJ, BoE and the ECB.
What is quantitative easing if not deliberate manipulation?

 

 

Clueless

 

Countries "buying" their own currences on FOREX markets is not "manipulation" per se

 

There is a lot of utter shight on this thread to date !

 

Again so many thinking that every currency has a "direct" exchange rate with the Thai Baht.....only the USD (as the worlds Reserve currency) has that priviledge (with every worldwide currency).....never in my last 19 years on this forum has a "pinned" post been more necessary over foreign exchange

 

The rest of us have to make do with a two pairing number crunch and either pairing effects the bottom line

[chiang mai]

37 minutes ago, Chivas said:

 

Clueless

 

Countries "buying" their own currences on FOREX markets is not "manipulation" per se

 

There is a lot of utter shight on this thread to date !

 

Again so many thinking that every currency has a "direct" exchange rate with the Thai Baht.....only the USD (as the worlds Reserve currency) has that priviledge (with every worldwide currency).....never in my last 19 years on this forum has a "pinned" post been more necessary over foreign exchange

 

The rest of us have to make do with a two pairing number crunch and either pairing effects the bottom line

 

I think the following provides a good explanation.

 

 

[sandyf]

22 hours ago, Unamerican said:

Possibly — but please, anyways, explain the particular use of context here! 

Currency is in pairs, and if a pair moves you cannot state which currency in the pair is responsible for the move without reference to other information or currency pairs.

The post I responded to had considered another pair and offered  a possible reason. I offered an alternative reason, remaining within the context of the post I had responded to.

The OP had indicated 3 pairs USD/THB, EUR/THB and GBP/THB so my reference to USD/GBP was still within the context of the OP.

If the pound had declined against both dollar and baht then chances are the pound caused the move.

 

If you didn't understand what RR stood for, then why not say so. Rachel Reeves, the new UK Chancellor of the Exchequer made her first major speech on the UK economy on the 17th July. Telling everyone there was a £20 billion hole in the accounts would have done little to strengthen the pound.

Also as has been said, cutting interest rates tends to weaken a currency, so the the THB may well look stronger against currencies that have been weakened in one way or another.

[chiang mai]

8 minutes ago, sandyf said:

Currency is in pairs, and if a pair moves you cannot state which currency in the pair is responsible for the move without reference to other information or currency pairs.

The post I responded to had considered another pair and offered  a possible reason. I offered an alternative reason, remaining within the context of the post I had responded to.

The OP had indicated 3 pairs USD/THB, EUR/THB and GBP/THB so my reference to USD/GBP was still within the context of the OP.

If the pound had declined against both dollar and baht then chances are the pound caused the move.

 

If you didn't understand what RR stood for, then why not say so. Rachel Reeves, the new UK Chancellor of the Exchequer made her first major speech on the UK economy on the 17th July. Telling everyone there was a £20 billion hole in the accounts would have done little to strengthen the pound.

Also as has been said, cutting interest rates tends to weaken a currency, so the the THB may well look stronger against currencies that have been weakened in one way or another.

I agree with 99% of what you wrote but I'm uncertain about the MH speech being the reason for the fall on 17 July. I looked for other economic events of that date but couldn't see anything meaningful. The BOE rate change was dated 1 Aug. I do however note that USD moved against other currencies on or about that date but as said, I can't find what news was released to cause that....it would be interesting to understand.

 

EDIT TO ADD:

 

This may be it, on 17 July, stronger than expected US sales data reaffirmed to markets that the Fed would cuts rates sooner rather than later, various indices jumped accordingly

 

  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-jul-17-133600063.html

Edited August 4 by chiang mai

[mfd101]

Just to keep everyone happy, Baht is FALLING STRONGLY today - against USD and thus also AUD & £.

[sandyf]

19 minutes ago, chiang mai said:

I agree with 99% of what you wrote but I'm uncertain about the MH speech being the reason for the fall on 17 July. I looked for other economic events of that date but couldn't see anything meaningful. The BOE rate change was dated 1 Aug. I do however note that USD moved against other currencies on or about that date but as said, I can't find what news was released to cause that....it would be interesting to understand.

 

EDIT TO ADD:

 

This may be it, on 17 July, stronger than expected US sales data reaffirmed to markets that the Fed would cuts rates sooner rather than later, various indices jumped accordingly

 

  https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-jul-17-133600063.html

The poster I responded to had indicated the interest rate meeting, but I had already seen movement before then going back to the 17th.

Her speech came to mind and I did say "probably", no dispute that other financial events on the same day may have had more of an impact.

I got my pension on the 19th and had intended a transfer, missed  the boat.

 

[Schoggibueb]

Hi All

Brandnew here, so I'm trying my first step with this post.

I really don't really know how much BOT interferes on international currencies vs. THB. I do know that the swiss national bank already had to do this too. But to weaken the CHF...

My oppinion is that in general alot of currencies lost in the last days because of the instable political situation in Israel / Iran etc. Big Market players often then try to bring their money to "stable currencies". Example Swiss Franc. Is at the moment almost on its historical peak -> 1.-CHF = 41.46THB on 20th of June 2024).

As far as I have read BOT will lower their intrest rates when the US will do so. Possibly that could happen in September. Then the THB will automatically get cheaper too.

 

 

[chiang mai]

BOT operates a managed float rate, that means they intervene in markets to avoid volatility and smooth out the peaks and toughs of the exchange rate. The managed floating rate system is often nicknamed the dirty or cheaters exchange rate regime, because it is neither fixed nor completely free and intervention is possible at any time. This contrasts with a fixed exchange rate against USD or free floating rate that adjusts according to market supply and demand.

 

Thailand is an export led economy where over 60% of GDP is derived from exports, trade bills for which are settled in USD. It's therefore in their best interests to try to keep the baht within a range that suits both exports and imports, the latter being important since Thailand imports most of its oil.

 

BOT maintained low interest rates during covid at a time when other countries were battling inflation and had rates twice as high as Thailand. That strategy has put them at a disadvantage because it has inhibited inbound foreign direct investment but has been advantageous in that costs and inflation here have been less than they otherwise would be.

 

Now, as USD rates start to come down, Emerging and Developing Market currencies will grow stronger as USD weakens, that is a natural consequence that includes THB. Whilst the PM wants BOT to lower rates, the central bank is in nor rush to lower them, especially since Thai exports are currently excellent value.

[Tailwagsdog]

It's always in 

[Chivas]

I'm crying with laughter here since my last post

How the hell some of you actually manage to tie your shoelaces in the morning is a source of some wonder

 

I'll explain it again and we'll use Sterling as the example

 

There is no direct exchange rate. Its calculated as such

 

(Sterling/Dollar) x (Dollar/Baht) equates to Sterling/Baht

 

Movement is either of those pairings effects the bottom line

 

Substitute AUD Euro CAD etc etc for Sterling in that first pairing to calculate your own currency

 

Only the USD has a direct exchange rate with the Baht (and every other currency)

 

Hells Bells its hard work lol and more surprisingly its this "senior" forum (and the best this last 20 years) that has the most people who cant grasp foreign exchange

[BuddyPish]

On 8/4/2024 at 2:15 PM, Chivas said:

 

Clueless

 

Countries "buying" their own currences on FOREX markets is not "manipulation" per se

 

There is a lot of utter shight on this thread to date !

 

Again so many thinking that every currency has a "direct" exchange rate with the Thai Baht.....only the USD (as the worlds Reserve currency) has that priviledge (with every worldwide currency).....never in my last 19 years on this forum has a "pinned" post been more necessary over foreign exchange

 

The rest of us have to make do with a two pairing number crunch and either pairing effects the bottom line

 

Sorry but I'm afraid YOU are the clueless one . . . . probably because you've spent 19 years on this forum.

Of course it's manipulation. 
When the yen gets too weak, the BoJ steps in and sells dollars to buy up yen to arrest the decline.

That intervention IS manipulation.

Now you might take issue with the use of that word but that's of no consequence to the market or its participants.

You can call it what you like but it is what it is.