Mysterious Cooling in the Atlantic Temperature Drop Raises Global Climate Questions

[Social Media]

 

After more than a year of record-high global sea temperatures, a remarkable and puzzling phenomenon has emerged in the equatorial Atlantic. The region is experiencing a dramatic cooling at a pace never before recorded, a shift that could have profound implications for weather patterns across the globe. This rapid transition, dubbed an "Atlantic Niña" pattern, is occurring just as the Pacific Ocean is expected to shift toward a cooler La Niña phase. The occurrence of these two significant cooling events in quick succession has left scientists both intrigued and concerned, as they could potentially trigger ripple effects on global weather.

 

Over the past three months, the equatorial Atlantic Ocean has undergone an astonishing shift from hot to cool temperatures at an unprecedented speed. This sudden cooling marks the emergence of the Atlantic Niña, a pattern that could influence weather worldwide, particularly when combined with the anticipated La Niña in the Pacific. The transition to cooler temperatures in both oceans comes as a relief after an extended period of intense heat on both land and sea, a phenomenon largely attributed to the increasing levels of greenhouse gas emissions and the warm El Niño pattern that began in the tropical Pacific Ocean in mid-2023.

 

 

"We are starting to see that the global mean ocean temperatures are going down a bit," noted Pedro DiNezio from the University of Colorado Boulder. According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), global sea surface temperatures in July 2024 were slightly cooler than those in July 2023, breaking a 15-month streak of record-high average ocean temperatures. This cooling trend began following the fading of the Pacific El Niño in May 2024, and NOAA forecasts suggest that cooler-than-average La Niña conditions are likely to develop between September and November.

 

This development is partly driven by strengthening winds along the equator, which facilitate the emergence of colder water from the deeper ocean. El Niño, in contrast, is associated with weaker trade winds that reduce the upwelling of cooler water, highlighting the cyclical nature of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the key drivers of natural variability within the global climate system.

 

While the Pacific Ocean’s ENSO has a significant influence on global climate, the equatorial Atlantic Ocean also undergoes its own oscillations between warm "Niños" and cold "Niñas" every few years. Similar to ENSO, these fluctuations in the Atlantic are often linked to the strength of trade winds. Throughout much of 2023, the equatorial Atlantic experienced unusually warm Niño conditions, with sea surface temperatures reaching their highest levels in decades. "It’s the latest episode in a string of events for a climate system that’s gone off the rails for a number of years," said Michael McPhaden from NOAA.

 

However, in the last three months, temperatures in this part of the Atlantic have cooled more rapidly than at any other time in recorded history, with data extending back to 1982. This abrupt shift has left scientists baffled, particularly because the strong trade winds typically responsible for such cooling have not materialized. "We’ve gone through the list of possible mechanisms, and nothing checks the box so far," said Franz Philip Tuchen from the University of Miami in Florida, underscoring the mysterious nature of this sudden cooling.

 

If temperatures in the equatorial Atlantic remain 0.5°C cooler than average for at least another month, the phenomenon will officially be classified as an "Atlantic Niña," according to Tuchen. The simultaneous occurrence of two La Niña events—one in the Pacific and the other in the Atlantic—could have significant effects on global weather patterns, particularly through their impact on temperature and humidity. For instance, a Pacific La Niña is generally associated with dry conditions in the western United States and increased rainfall in East Africa, while an Atlantic Niña tends to reduce precipitation in Africa’s Sahel region while increasing it in parts of Brazil.

 

These two La Niñas could also exert opposing influences on the ongoing Atlantic hurricane season. The Pacific La Niña is expected to heighten the likelihood of hurricanes in the Atlantic when it arrives in September, but the Atlantic Niña may weaken certain conditions, such as atmospheric wave activity, which are necessary for hurricane formation. This interaction adds another layer of complexity to predicting how these cooling events will impact global weather.

 

Furthermore, the two cycles might influence each other directly, although the precise nature of their interaction remains difficult to predict. However, there is speculation that the Atlantic Niña could delay the development of the La Niña in the Pacific, thereby slowing its cooling effects on the global climate. "There could be a tug of war between the Pacific trying to cool itself and the Atlantic trying to warm it," McPhaden remarked, highlighting the intricate and interconnected nature of these oceanic cycles.

 

As scientists continue to monitor these developments, the rapid cooling in the Atlantic remains an enigma, raising important questions about the future of global climate patterns and the potential consequences for weather systems worldwide. The unexpected speed of this cooling event, combined with the concurrent shifts in the Pacific, underscores the ongoing challenges in understanding and predicting the complex dynamics of Earth's climate system.

 

Credit: New Scientist  2024-08-24

 

 

 

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[nauseus]

The last sentence sums everythong up quite well.

[ExpatOilWorker]

Might be unrelated, but last time we had a big cooling in 2011 Thailand had the big flood. Northern Thailand is already having a very wet rainy season. 

 

[blazes]

Even though the scientists are puzzled by this mysterious phenomenon, they nevertheless assume it belongs in the Climate Alarm department.

Scientists have, literally, no idea whether this phenomenon has been sighted during the last few billions of years, but apparently it has not been observed before in all recorded history (going back to 1982!!!).

[stevenl]

2 hours ago, nauseus said:

The last sentence sums everythong up quite well.

 

21 minutes ago, blazes said:

Even though the scientists are puzzled by this mysterious phenomenon, they nevertheless assume it belongs in the Climate Alarm department.

Scientists have, literally, no idea whether this phenomenon has been sighted during the last few billions of years, but apparently it has not been observed before in all recorded history (going back to 1982!!!).

Yes, man made climate change has some nasty surprises for us.

[thaibeachlovers]

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

The unexpected speed of this cooling event, combined with the concurrent shifts in the Pacific, underscores the ongoing challenges in understanding and predicting the complex dynamics of Earth's climate system.

 

One wonders if the oceans cool ( which will cool everything down ) what the politicians will come up with to tax us with then.

The problem with pinning everything on one thing ( warming ) becomes a problem when it starts cooling instead.

 

Now, all you guys out there ( you know who you are ) that have been telling us that the "science is settled" and other such like nonsense, if the planet cools will you accept that you were wrong?

[Chomper Higgot]

For scientists it raises questions to be investigated.

 

Fir climate deniers it confirms their bias.

[thaibeachlovers]

35 minutes ago, stevenl said:

 

Yes, man made climate change has some nasty surprises for us.

Not "us". Only those that believe the "man made climate change" propaganda.

[mfd101]

With 'recorded history' beginning in 1982, no wonder we're bewildered!

 

Seriously though, I was under the impression that reliable weather records (and perhaps also climate records) date back to the C19th. Not to mention multiple historical and archaeological records of floods and desertification for at least the last 2000 years ...

 

All up, our continuing bewilderment is itself bewildering. Ideology vs Evidence is never a nice scenario.

[thaibeachlovers]

1 minute ago, mfd101 said:

Not to mention multiple historical and archaeological records of floods and desertification for at least the last 2000 years ...

Records yes, but no reasons for the floods or desertification. No computers to input the info one needs to produce the required result.

[blazes]

Lucky Indians: they are blessed with a country abounding in energy sources and they have a government with enough common sense to exploit them.

 

https://cornwallalliance.org/2024/08/india-accentuates-coal-reliance-in-its-new-economic-policy-brief/

[john donson]

aliens fixing it ? sure would need more of our tax payers money to investigate

[Donga]

Climate denying - what about doomsday denying.  The constant harping over natural disasters and minor temperature events that are attributed to carbon emissions. So alarmist and often very selective. Great Barrier Reef has been in death throes for 50 years. It is in good shape. Kiddies are schooled that the world is ending.

Climate deniers - what about nuke energy deniers, from those most worried about anthropogenic warming. So many "greens" are naive, gullible, uninformed, living in the past and refuse to believe the data and science around modern nuclear energy.

[retarius]

I really am sick of hot weather so this is welcome news for me. I'd be very happy to see Thailand cool down to around 27 to 28 degrees. 

[Scouse123]

2 hours ago, retarius said:

I really am sick of hot weather so this is welcome news for me. I'd be very happy to see Thailand cool down to around 27 to 28 degrees. 

 

 

Oh well then,

 

Let's see what can be done, we don't want retarius getting too hot under the collar, do we?

[CallumWK]

5 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

For scientists it raises questions to be investigated.

 

Fir climate deniers it confirms their bias.

 

For climate activists, it creates a challenge how to explain this while remaining credible

[Chomper Higgot]

18 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

 

For climate activists, it creates a challenge how to explain this while remaining credible

Really?

[digger70]

6 hours ago, thaibeachlovers said:

 

One wonders if the oceans cool ( which will cool everything down ) what the politicians will come up with to tax us with then.

The problem with pinning everything on one thing ( warming ) becomes a problem when it starts cooling instead.

 

Now, all you guys out there ( you know who you are ) that have been telling us that the "science is settled" and other such like nonsense, if the planet cools will you accept that you were wrong?

No. they will find something else (An Excuse to blame it on Global warming having a day off) or some other Excuse.   🙏

[MicroB]

10 hours ago, Chomper Higgot said:

For scientists it raises questions to be investigated.

 

Fir climate deniers it confirms their bias.

 

 

Its not an unknown phenomenom. Its a recognised weather event.

 

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/10/9/502

 

https://oceanrep.geomar.de/id/eprint/59805/1/JGR Oceans - 2023 - Tuchen - Modulation of Equatorial Currents and Tropical Instability Waves During the 2021 Atlantic Ni o.pdf

 

Quote

 

On interannual time scales, tropical Atlantic SST variability is largely dominated by two seasonally phase-locked climate modes: the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM) and the Atlantic zonal mode (AZM). The positive and negative phases (i.e., warm and cold events) of the AZM are often referred to as Atlantic Niño and Niña events in reference to their Pacific counterparts, El Niño and La Niña (e.g., Lübbecke et al., 2018; Nobre & Shukla, 1996; Zebiak, 1993). While the AMM is defined as the anomalous meridional SST gradient between the northern and southern tropical Atlantic and is most pronounced from April to May (e.g., Chiang & Vimont, 2004; Foltz & McPhaden, 2010b; Rugg et al., 2016), the AZM is characterized by the timing, zonal extent, and intensity of a cold tongue of SST anomalies that forms in the central and eastern Atlantic during boreal summer (e.g., Hormann et al., 2013; Zebiak, 1993). Atlantic Niños are extreme warm events that can cause severe rainfall and flooding over the Gulf of Guinea, West Africa, and northeastern South America (e.g., Lübbecke et al., 2018; Nobre & Shukla, 1996; Vallès-Casanova et al., 2020). Theycan impact other equatorial basins through atmospheric teleconnections (Ding et al., 2012; Losada et al., 2010; Rodríguez-Fonseca et al., 2009) and have been shown to intensify tropical cyclone development in the Cape Verde region (Kim et al., 2023). However, weather and climate models struggle to represent and predict Atlantic Niño and Niña events (Richter et al., 2017). This deficiency is often attributed to weaker coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean compared to the Pacific Ocean (Richter et al., 2014), pointing toward the need for a better understanding of the physical processes involved.

 

 

 

 

[bangkok19]

I think it's called "weather".

[KhunLA]

On 8/24/2024 at 6:13 AM, ExpatOilWorker said:

Might be unrelated, but last time we had a big cooling in 2011 Thailand had the big flood. Northern Thailand is already having a very wet rainy season. 

The cooling must explain the strengthening of the THB also, and Oct 2011, it was in the 30s to $1 USD.

 

Damn climate change ... 😎

[JonnyF]

Oh dear.

 

The doomsday cult will have to switch to screaming about an impending ice age that will freeze us all to death within 50 years 😆.

 

Buy shares in bobble hats.