Kamala Harris' Election Prospects Slip in Prediction Market Amid Trump's Surge

[Social Media]

 

Kamala Harris' chances of winning the November election have taken a sharp downturn, according to an online betting platform, Polymarket. The platform, which is partially funded by Peter Thiel, a longtime supporter of Donald Trump, initially gave the vice president a 49.8 percent chance of victory on October 4, compared to Trump's 49.6 percent. However, just three days later, by October 7, Harris’ odds had dropped to 45.8 percent, while Trump's had jumped to 54 percent. As of Tuesday, the platform showed Harris holding at 46.1 percent, while Trump stood at 53.3 percent.

 

This shift marks Trump’s best odds against Harris since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris on July 21. A week before, Trump had reached a high point in the prediction market, with a 67 percent chance of beating Biden. Interestingly, on October 4, both Harris and Trump were equally positioned on Polymarket. Yet, a wave of new bets in Trump's favor caused the sudden surge. Polymarket’s odds are determined by the "collective wisdom" of bettors, rather than by external indicators such as polls or expert predictions.

 

Newsweek contacted the campaigns for both Trump and Harris via email but had not received responses at the time of writing.

 

Nate Silver, a well-known pollster and advisor for Polymarket, provided some insight into the recent shift in the odds. According to Silver, the surge in bets for Trump may be linked to a combination of market boredom and speculative trading. "A couple of people have asked me what's behind this, and my theory is that there isn't much," Silver commented in his newsletter on Monday. "Sometimes market sentiment has a mind of its own, and that can especially happen when traders are bored and angsty because they're in the doldrums."

 

Silver also noted that while there has been a history of bettors trying to sway public opinion through their trades, such tactics have become increasingly difficult. "It's too costly to keep bets artificially high for long periods," Silver explained. He added that the majority of recent bets likely stem from either genuine Trump supporters or traders hoping to capitalize on market movements.

 

Despite the changes in the betting markets, most polling data shows Harris leading Trump. FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker places Harris 2.6 points ahead, and Silver's own tracker puts her 3 points ahead of Trump. Still, Silver cautioned that while Harris appears to have an edge in the popular vote, the Electoral College remains highly uncertain. According to some forecasts, including Polymarket's, Harris is not currently projected to secure the necessary Electoral College votes for a definitive win.

 

Other prediction platforms indicate a similarly tight race between Harris and Trump. Some betting markets show the two candidates nearly neck-and-neck in their chances of taking the White House in November. 

 

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's model currently predicts that Harris will win both the popular vote and the Electoral College, with 279 electoral votes to Trump's 259. The Economist's forecast gives Harris 273 electoral votes to Trump's 265, while Silver's own projections show Harris with 281 electoral votes, compared to Trump’s 256.

 

As the election draws nearer, these numbers may continue to fluctuate based on both market sentiment and real-world developments.

 

Based on a report from Newsweek 2024-10-10

 

 

 

[Tug]

I’m not buying it everyone is exhausted by trump’s constant lying and criminal conduct.thats not even mentioning what he’s done to our women folk+his obvious threat to our democracy.

[Thingamabob]

So many conflicting forecasts.  Kamala needs to be more specific regarding her policies over the next month. 

[mdr224]

That 60 minutes interview harris did was pretty damaging to her chances. Dems will probably keep her hidden for the rest of the month

[flexomike]

4 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

That 60 minutes interview harris did was pretty damaging to her chances. Dems will probably keep her hidden for the rest of the month

She is going to make up for it on the very credible shows of the View and Howard Stern - 555

 

[morrobay]

There are a lot of not so obvious moving parts here that favor Trump:

[Srikcir]

Meanwhile Trump is already claiming that the 2024 election was stolen from him. 

[Cryingdick]

48 minutes ago, flexomike said:

She is going to make up for it on the very credible shows of the View and Howard Stern - 555

 

 

That ship sailed. She said she wouldn't change a single thing in the past four years and was directly involved in the majority of decisions made under Biden. Hard to argue she will be an agent of change at that point.

[Snackbar]

Imagine having an original thought. Try it

[neeray]

" Polymarket’s odds are determined by the "collective wisdom" of bettors. Enough said !

[shdmn]

So one of the more active trolls on this site posted something about this a day or two ago and the next think you know this site is posting an official story about it.  I'm sure it's just a coincidence.  🤔

Edited October 10 by shdmn

[dinsdale]

The woman is a complete idiot. 

 

[mfd101]

3 hours ago, Social Media said:

Nate Silver, a well-known pollster and advisor for Polymarket, provided some insight into the recent shift in the odds. According to Silver, the surge in bets for Trump may be linked to a combination of market boredom and speculative trading. "A couple of people have asked me what's behind this, and my theory is that there isn't much," Silver commented in his newsletter on Monday. "Sometimes market sentiment has a mind of its own, and that can especially happen when traders are bored and angsty because they're in the doldrums."

 

Silver also noted that while there has been a history of bettors trying to sway public opinion through their trades, such tactics have become increasingly difficult. "It's too costly to keep bets artificially high for long periods," Silver explained. He added that the majority of recent bets likely stem from either genuine Trump supporters or traders hoping to capitalize on market movements.

Just about says it all, I think. Pollsters & betting platforms need CONSTANT CHANGE to continue making money.

[morrobay]

Well Trump is now campaigning in  New York and California!. Now what does that say ?. It says the campaign already knows he has won.https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-coachella-rally-california-latino-voters-1965920

[morrobay]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

The woman is a complete idiot. 

 

Unbelievable isn't it that she has gotten even this far. Well her house of  cards, Empress has no clothes ,wheels coming off the wagon campaign has finally arrived. What's also unbelievable are the people who are planning on voting for her.

[JCauto]

1 hour ago, neeray said:

" Polymarket’s odds are determined by the "collective wisdom" of bettors. Enough said !

 

And it's a site run by Peter Thiel, one of the billionaires trying to shoehorn the Oligarchy into the Presidency. Very reliable and I'm sure it's not at all open to manipulation!

[Thingamabob]

1 hour ago, neeray said:

" Polymarket’s odds are determined by the "collective wisdom" of bettors. Enough said !

Successful 'Bettors' are worth a listen. We set out to make money. not to lose it.

[mdr224]

2 minutes ago, morrobay said:

Unbelievable isn't it that she has gotten even this far. Well her house of  cards, Empress has no clothes ,wheels coming off the wagon campaign has finally arrived. What's also unbelievable are the people who are planning on voting for her.

Ive said it since the beginning. They had a better chance with biden

[thaibeachlovers]

3 hours ago, flexomike said:

She is going to make up for it on the very credible shows of the View and Howard Stern - 555

 

I had to read that a couple times to realise it was sarcasm.

 

As for Silver's explanation, clutching at straws IMO.

[jippytum]

 The more interviews  Kamalla gives the lower her popularity ratings. 

If she gets more air time and Trump less air time during the run in to the election.   No contest.  Trump by a KO. 

[Paulgo]

3 hours ago, Thingamabob said:

So many conflicting forecasts.  Kamala needs to be more specific regarding her policies over the next month. 

But whoever she’s asked about her policies she avoids the questions. 

[proton]

10 minutes ago, Paulgo said:

But whoever she’s asked about her policies she avoids the questions. 

 

She would be stuck for an answer to somebody saying good morning

[thaibeachlovers]

1 hour ago, dinsdale said:

The woman is a complete idiot. 

 

Not as big an idiot as the people that imposed her on the Dems as the candidate, IMO.

 

She couldn't even get ahead of Trump when she was slid into position and had the bounce, and as time goes by the mistake is becoming more and more obvious. They should have waited till nearer the election to kick Biden into touch.

 

The way it's going Trump may not even need an October surprise to win.

 

I expect the Harris supporters to get ever more desperate to attack Trump, given there isn't much they can do to improve the candidate.

[Purdey]

5 hours ago, Social Media said:

The platform, which is partially funded by Peter Thiel, a longtime supporter of Donald Trump

I stopped reading at this point.

[G_Money]

Wait until he fills up MSG in NYC,  20k easily.

 

 

Edited October 10 by G_Money

[thaibeachlovers]

7 minutes ago, Purdey said:

I stopped reading at this point.

Had you continued you'd know that the bettors are the ones driving the predictions, not him.

 

5 hours ago, Social Media said:

Polymarket’s odds are determined by the "collective wisdom" of bettors, rather than by external indicators such as polls or expert predictions.

 

[Eric Loh]

Forbes reported that one anonymous user by the name of "Fredi9999"upped his bets on a Trump win to over $4 million. Polymarkets does not limit individual bettors like their nearest competitors like Predictlt ($850 limit) or Kalshi. So this big swing could be due to this one individual or a handful of big ticket bettors rather than a material shift in the election landscape.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2024/10/07/trumps-election-odds-spike-on-polymarket-as-musk-touts-election-betting-site/

Edited October 10 by Eric Loh
wrong words

[neeray]

1 hour ago, Thingamabob said:

Successful 'Bettors' are worth a listen. We set out to make money. not to lose it.

Bettors can often = losers. Might as well play the slots.

[proton]

I wonder if she secretly is hoping she loses? she must know by now she is not up to doing the job. She cannot even answer simple questions and seems to have almost no idea about foreign policy. The DEI selection if ever there was one.

[Hanaguma]

It seems like shades of the 2020 Democratic primary. The more Harris is exposed to the public, the less they like her.  But sadly, her campaign tried the 'hide in the basement' strategy a bit too early.  Even a compliant media can cover up her faults for only so long.