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Kamala Harris' chances of winning the November election have taken a sharp downturn, according to an online betting platform, Polymarket. The platform, which is partially funded by Peter Thiel, a longtime supporter of Donald Trump, initially gave the vice president a 49.8 percent chance of victory on October 4, compared to Trump's 49.6 percent. However, just three days later, by October 7, Harris’ odds had dropped to 45.8 percent, while Trump's had jumped to 54 percent. As of Tuesday, the platform showed Harris holding at 46.1 percent, while Trump stood at 53.3 percent.

 

This shift marks Trump’s best odds against Harris since President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and endorsed Harris on July 21. A week before, Trump had reached a high point in the prediction market, with a 67 percent chance of beating Biden. Interestingly, on October 4, both Harris and Trump were equally positioned on Polymarket. Yet, a wave of new bets in Trump's favor caused the sudden surge. Polymarket’s odds are determined by the "collective wisdom" of bettors, rather than by external indicators such as polls or expert predictions.

 

Newsweek contacted the campaigns for both Trump and Harris via email but had not received responses at the time of writing.

 

Nate Silver, a well-known pollster and advisor for Polymarket, provided some insight into the recent shift in the odds. According to Silver, the surge in bets for Trump may be linked to a combination of market boredom and speculative trading. "A couple of people have asked me what's behind this, and my theory is that there isn't much," Silver commented in his newsletter on Monday. "Sometimes market sentiment has a mind of its own, and that can especially happen when traders are bored and angsty because they're in the doldrums."

 

Silver also noted that while there has been a history of bettors trying to sway public opinion through their trades, such tactics have become increasingly difficult. "It's too costly to keep bets artificially high for long periods," Silver explained. He added that the majority of recent bets likely stem from either genuine Trump supporters or traders hoping to capitalize on market movements.

 

Despite the changes in the betting markets, most polling data shows Harris leading Trump. FiveThirtyEight's poll tracker places Harris 2.6 points ahead, and Silver's own tracker puts her 3 points ahead of Trump. Still, Silver cautioned that while Harris appears to have an edge in the popular vote, the Electoral College remains highly uncertain. According to some forecasts, including Polymarket's, Harris is not currently projected to secure the necessary Electoral College votes for a definitive win.

 

Other prediction platforms indicate a similarly tight race between Harris and Trump. Some betting markets show the two candidates nearly neck-and-neck in their chances of taking the White House in November. 

 

Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight's model currently predicts that Harris will win both the popular vote and the Electoral College, with 279 electoral votes to Trump's 259. The Economist's forecast gives Harris 273 electoral votes to Trump's 265, while Silver's own projections show Harris with 281 electoral votes, compared to Trump’s 256.

 

As the election draws nearer, these numbers may continue to fluctuate based on both market sentiment and real-world developments.

 

Based on a report from Newsweek 2024-10-10

 

 

 

[Tug]

I’m not buying it everyone is exhausted by trump’s constant lying and criminal conduct.thats not even mentioning what he’s done to our women folk+his obvious threat to our democracy.

[Thingamabob]

So many conflicting forecasts.  Kamala needs to be more specific regarding her policies over the next month. 

[mdr224]

That 60 minutes interview harris did was pretty damaging to her chances. Dems will probably keep her hidden for the rest of the month

[flexomike]

4 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

That 60 minutes interview harris did was pretty damaging to her chances. Dems will probably keep her hidden for the rest of the month

She is going to make up for it on the very credible shows of the View and Howard Stern - 555

 

[morrobay]

There are a lot of not so obvious moving parts here that favor Trump:

[Srikcir]

Meanwhile Trump is already claiming that the 2024 election was stolen from him. 

[Cryingdick]

48 minutes ago, flexomike said:

She is going to make up for it on the very credible shows of the View and Howard Stern - 555

 

 

That ship sailed. She said she wouldn't change a single thing in the past four years and was directly involved in the majority of decisions made under Biden. Hard to argue she will be an agent of change at that point.