Declining Democratic Voter Registration Could Spell Trouble for Harris in 2024

[Social Media]

 

Recent shifts in voter registration have raised concerns for Vice President Kamala Harris as the 2024 presidential election approaches. In three critical battleground states—Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Nevada—the Democratic voter registration advantage has notably diminished, signaling potential challenges for Harris. Experts attribute the decline to a lack of enthusiasm surrounding the Biden administration and the Democratic Party in general.

 

The situation is especially stark in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, where the number of registered Democrats has significantly decreased. Pennsylvania has seen its Democratic voter registration edge fall by nearly half from the 2020 election. “Democrats are down about 300,000 voters, and Republicans are up about 70,000," said Berwood Yost, director of the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania. Yost suggests that this decline is driven by widespread disenchantment with the current administration, adding, "People feel really negatively about the Biden presidency."

 

David Paleologos, director of the Political Research Center at Suffolk University, also noted the drastic shift in North Carolina, where the Democrats’ voter registration advantage has been slashed from a 393,000 lead in 2020 to only 130,000 in 2024. He pointed out that despite the initial advantage Democrats held in 2020, Donald Trump still carried the state. With an even smaller margin now, Paleologos believes Trump is well-positioned to widen his lead.

 

Particularly concerning for Harris is Arizona, another key battleground state. In 2020, President Biden narrowly won the state, but Republicans have since significantly increased their voter registration advantage. Constantin Querard, an Arizona-based Republican strategist, credits GOP officials for focusing on expanding their base. Since 2020, the Republican voter registration advantage in Arizona has doubled, growing from 130,000 to 259,000. Querard noted, "The Republican brand is doing better than the Democratic brand." This shift was reflected in a September poll showing Trump with a 6-point lead over Harris in the state.

 

However, it’s not all bad news for the Harris campaign. In Nevada, despite a shrinking Democratic registration advantage, Harris still leads Trump in polling averages. Experts like Jon Ralston, CEO of The Nevada Independent, caution that while Democrats have seen their voter edge decline, the rise in independent and unaffiliated voters may play a pivotal role in the outcome. Ralston described the shifting voter registration numbers in Nevada as “a concern for Dems,” but added that it remains a tight race.

 

Democratic strategists in Pennsylvania and North Carolina acknowledge the erosion of their voter registration advantage but argue that it may not fully reflect voting behavior. Many registered Democrats who have been voting for Republicans for years are only now switching their party affiliation. J.J. Balaban, a Democratic strategist, contends that the changes in registration "don’t indicate much about how voting in Pennsylvania will change in 2024."

 

Moreover, in North Carolina, Democratic strategist Morgan Jackson pointed out that younger voters, who are more likely to support Harris, are increasingly registering as unaffiliated. Jackson believes this shift is due to dissatisfaction with both major political parties, noting, “Both national party brands are in the crapper with voters.” He also emphasized that most unaffiliated voters tend to align with one party over the other, suggesting that Harris could still benefit from this group.

 

In conclusion, while the decline in Democratic voter registration in key battleground states raises red flags for Harris, the race is far from decided. Factors such as unaffiliated voters, changing voter affiliations, and shifts in local dynamics make it clear that both candidates face a tight and unpredictable contest as the 2024 election draws closer.

 

Based on a report from The Hill 2024-10-15

 

 

 

[Tug]

Definitely worrisome no doubt about it I hope we aren’t saddled with that disaster again……..

[thesetat2013]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

Definitely worrisome no doubt about it I hope we aren’t saddled with that disaster again……..

Yeah... it is definitely worrisome that Harris still has a lead in some states. But it is confident the independents will be voting for Trump. I know personally The people would surely hate another 4 years with someone who followed Biden and did nothing as VP.  What a disaster it has been the last 4 years for sure. 

[thaipo7]

1 hour ago, Tug said:

Definitely worrisome no doubt about it I hope we aren’t saddled with that disaster again……..

Worrisome?  I think it is showing people have had enough of the last 4 years and don't want 4 more of the same or worse.  And it will be worse.  She is more of a Marxist/Communist  than Biden.  Plus much more stupid.  What did you like about the last 4 years?  Be the first to answer.

[Luuk Chaai]

On 10/14/2024 at 3:36 PM, thaipo7 said:

Worrisome?  I think it is showing people have had enough of the last 4 years and don't want 4 more of the same or worse.  And it will be worse.  She is more of a Marxist/Communist  than Biden.  Plus much more stupid.  What did you like about the last 4 years?  Be the first to answer.

and she verbally confirmed it !

on The View Harris Says 'Not a Thing Comes to Mind' That She'd Do Differently Than Biden 

before coming back to the question and adding that she plans to appoint a Republican to her Cabinet if she is elected in November.   who would that be ..  Liz Cheney ?      you can't fix stupid

Edited October 16 by cdnvic
fixed oversized text

[Tug]

12 minutes ago, thaipo7 said:

Worrisome?  I think it is showing people have had enough of the last 4 years and don't want 4 more of the same or worse.  And it will be worse.  She is more of a Marxist/Communist  than Biden.  Plus much more stupid.  What did you like about the last 4 years?  Be the first to answer.

I’d be delighted thaipo gee were to start…..humm??perhaps we could start off with both the Dow ans s&p 500 breaking records 2ond day in a row btw…..humm…there’s infrastructure……drug prices……Covid vanquished…..excellent unemployment #s stellar property values…..heck lots of good stuff I can buy gas for less than 3$  a gallon in Tucson……I really don’t get were you come up with your hysterical Marxist / communist ideas im not seeing anything like that must be a magga fever dream.I do find it disturbing that we don’t seem to hear much about all the great things happening here,I find that suspicious to be perfectly honest with you.

[mdr224]

4 minutes ago, Tug said:

I’d be delighted thaipo gee were to start…..humm??perhaps we could start off with both the Dow ans s&p 500 breaking records 2ond day in a row btw…..humm…there’s infrastructure……drug prices……Covid vanquished…..excellent unemployment #s stellar property values…..heck lots of good stuff I can buy gas for less than 3$  a gallon in Tucson……I really don’t get were you come up with your hysterical Marxist / communist ideas im not seeing anything like that must be a magga fever dream.I do find it disturbing that we don’t seem to hear much about all the great things happening here,I find that suspicious to be perfectly honest with you.

Yeah gas prices and stocks are definitely not artificially controlled before an election

[jippytum]

Harris is toast.

She is the major factor  in Trump's favorable  poll ratings and wll secure another term for 'The Donald '

[Tug]

4 minutes ago, Luuk Chaai said:

and she verbally confirmed it !

on The View Harris Says 'Not a Thing Comes to Mind' That She'd Do Differently Than Biden 

before coming back to the question and adding that she plans to appoint a Republican to her Cabinet if she is elected in November.   who would that be ..  Liz Cheney ?      you can't fix stupid

Yea it would be the worst thing ever to work across the isle ehh?better to have a New York City trust fund baby that’s a convicted felon mismanaged a pandemic that killed more than a million Americans plays footsies with the worst criminals our planet has to offer cannot tell the truth and on and on and on …..I’d call that STUPID!

[Tug]

2 minutes ago, mdr224 said:

Yeah gas prices and stocks are definitely not artificially controlled before an election

Proof?

[thesetat2013]

4 minutes ago, Tug said:

I’d be delighted thaipo gee were to start…..humm??perhaps we could start off with both the Dow ans s&p 500 breaking records 2ond day in a row btw…..humm…there’s infrastructure……drug prices……Covid vanquished…..excellent unemployment #s stellar property values…..heck lots of good stuff I can buy gas for less than 3$  a gallon in Tucson……I really don’t get were you come up with your hysterical Marxist / communist ideas im not seeing anything like that must be a magga fever dream.I do find it disturbing that we don’t seem to hear much about all the great things happening here,I find that suspicious to be perfectly honest with you.

Probably because you only quote meaningless things good. a gallon of gas is 2.89 per gallon.. but a gallon of milk os 2.49.. haha.. a loaf of bread there is 3.47. One ride on the city bus is $2. School lunches are 3.47 now. All in Tucson mind you. Currently Covid in Tucson is 140,000 per week, far from vanquished. You should research online before making ridiculous statements. I found all that in a simple google search

[Celsius]

soon we will all witness a lot of liberal tears on this forum.

[thesetat2013]

6 minutes ago, Tug said:

Yea it would be the worst thing ever to work across the isle ehh?better to have a New York City trust fund baby that’s a convicted felon mismanaged a pandemic that killed more than a million Americans plays footsies with the worst criminals our planet has to offer cannot tell the truth and on and on and on …..I’d call that STUPID!

Am surprised at you Tug... Isn't it even more stupid to endorse someone like Harris who is proven as VP do be a dimwit.. Has proven in interviews to know nothing about politics or talking to politicians. Who has proven in many conventions to repeat the same words because she does not know what else to say. Isn't it even more stupid to base your choice just because you hate the other guy? When your choice is obviously done by feelings instead of what is good for the country. I am not saying to Vote Trump. There are other candidates in this election. But clearly, you are blinded to see Harris for what she really is. 

[Tug]

4 minutes ago, thesetat2013 said:

Probably because you only quote meaningless things good. a gallon of gas is 2.89 per gallon.. but a gallon of milk os 2.49.. haha.. a loaf of bread there is 3.47. One ride on the city bus is $2. School lunches are 3.47 now. All in Tucson mind you. Currently Covid in Tucson is 140,000 per week, far from vanquished. You should research online before making ridiculous statements. I found all that in a simple google search

In the case of Covid are there refer trucks lined up row after row receiving the dead?what was the price of milk and bread in 2020?In our car culture here in the states were we have lousy public transportation and everything is farcical apart fuel prices are critical that’s something I watch every day as most folks do.

[Tug]

9 minutes ago, thesetat2013 said:

Am surprised at you Tug... Isn't it even more stupid to endorse someone like Harris who is proven as VP do be a dimwit.. Has proven in interviews to know nothing about politics or talking to politicians. Who has proven in many conventions to repeat the same words because she does not know what else to say. Isn't it even more stupid to base your choice just because you hate the other guy? When your choice is obviously done by feelings instead of what is good for the country. I am not saying to Vote Trump. There are other candidates in this election. But clearly, you are blinded to see Harris for what she really is. 

Humm…..lets see….passed the bar exam…stupid you say……DA……stupid you say….AG for the state of California……stupid you say……United States senator……stupid you say vice person the United States of America……stupid you say…….sorry I’m not buying whatever it is you are selling that would be stupid.

[thesetat2013]

3 minutes ago, Tug said:

Humm…..lets see….passed the bar exam…stupid you say……DA……stupid you say….AG for the state of California……stupid you say……United States senator……stupid you say vice person the United States of America……stupid you say…….sorry I’m not buying whatever it is you are selling that would be stupid.

As i said.. Blind... 

[Tug]

11 minutes ago, thesetat2013 said:

As i said.. Blind... 

as I pointed out to you real factual life achievements im not blind to her achievements it’s you and your ilk that continue to carry water for a proven fraud who cannot tell the truth to save his life no sir it’s you who are blind or perhaps have an agenda 

[Celsius]

Why did Democrats choose such an idiot?

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-14/kamala-harris-highlights-capital-access-crypto-in-bid-to-woo-black-men

[novacova]

3 hours ago, Social Media said:

Democratic voter registration in key battleground states raises red flags for Harris

Harris is the Red Flag, not a single vote was cast for the gimmickry’s nomination and those who have pulled their heads out of the propaganda machine are drop kicking any notion of voting for that airhead. 

Edited October 15 by novacova

[Srikcir]

4 hours ago, Social Media said:

Recent shifts in voter registration have raised concerns for Vice President Kamala Harris as the 2024 presidential election approaches.

A registered voter for a certain political party is not constrained to vote for another party without re-registering. Voters can cross party lines to support/vote candidates without changing their political registration. And that is happening on a broad scale: registered Republicans supporting Democrat candidates including Harris. How do you account for this shift? My links, where are yours?

• "Republicans for Harris launches, aiming for Biden-like appeal to anti-Trump voters," Edward-Isaac Dovere, August 4, 2024 https://edition.cnn.com/
• "Anti-Trump Republicans Raise Over $35 Million to Help Harris," Sep 14, 2024       https://www.newsweek.com/
• "Over 100 Former GOP Officials Sign Letter Endorsing Harris," Sept. 18, 2024 https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/

[proton]

Has there ever been a weaker presidential candidate than Kamala? Not elected by delegates but appointed, cannot answer simple questions, lies about her past, even pads her resume out with a fantasy of working at McDonald's! Now it's reported she copied large sections of her book, even from Wikipedia. Patronises voters by changing accents and her ethnicity, appears insecure and unable to speak without a teleprompter. Changed her policies on several issues including her open border. She would be a continuing disaster for America.

[thesetat2013]

3 hours ago, Tug said:

as I pointed out to you real factual life achievements im not blind to her achievements it’s you and your ilk that continue to carry water for a proven fraud who cannot tell the truth to save his life no sir it’s you who are blind or perhaps have an agenda 

Hmm the truth... No achievements or failed achievements as VP... Failed miserably in talks with other diplomats.. Even failed in interviews with other diplomats on TV to where she was so speechless as to why she was there that she passed the ball to another diplomat to explain her reasons for being in their country. You keep trying to say i am all for Trump.. But that is your hatred that drives you to condone Harris. I am not a Trump fan. Nor will I vote for him. But if all you have is 2 people (which you do not) Trump would be the better choice for the country. But there are other 3rd party players you can vote for. 

Agenda, to open the eyes of people like you to se Harris for what she really is. A simple prosecutor who had an affair with a married man to get promoted in her field. Not a politician. Not a world leader. And most definitely not good for the people in the USA or in the White House. 

[Eric Loh]

Before some of you Maga folks gets euphoric over the surge of Republican voter registration, it will not meant that the election is skewing towards Trump. The independent non partisan voters always have the final say. They are a big bloc of 26-30% share of the electorates and have voted for the Dems in 2018 mid-term and 2020. Republicans just can't close the deal with independent voters especially with Trump. There is also a big chunk of new young voters that are less Republocans and hateful of Trump. Just tone down your euphoria Maga.

 

 

 

[JonnyF]

It's all going a bit pear shaped for the cackling chameleon.

 

Who would have thought that hiding in the basement and then briefly appearing to talk nonsense and dodge questions would lead to a hemorrhaging of support? 

 

Whenever she goes before a vote, she loses. 

 

Roll on November.

[thecyclist]

7 hours ago, thaipo7 said:

Worrisome?  I think it is showing people have had enough of the last 4 years and don't want 4 more of the same or worse.  And it will be worse.  She is more of a Marxist/Communist  than Biden.  Plus much more stupid.  What did you like about the last 4 years?  Be the first to answer.

Maybe not the first but nevertheless, who is a total ignoramus here, it's you much more than Harris, just repeating slogans here that you picked up on TV or the net. No thought put into it. that is if you are capable of rational thought. Parroting talking points that appeal to your petty grudges and prejudice. 

They say Harris is a Marxist on Fox, must be true then. 

Harris has absolutely nothing in common with Marxism. She is an advocate of a totally discredited system or ideology, neoliberal hypercapitalism, basically the mainstream BS we all have been suffering under for 40 years. She is right wing. But you need a brain and some education to figure that out. 

There isn't much good to say for Harris, other than that she is business as usual, and that she has some minimal ideology, while her opponent is just a wrecking ball. As a pathetic loser, at least in matters of intellect, you see yourself reflected in your orange hero, and together, you and the other millions of deplorables will wreck America and the planet. 

"Man is a failed experiment" Nietzsche 

[Scott Tracy]

Forgive a stupid foreigner. You have to specify a political party when you register to vote?

[placeholder]

44 minutes ago, Scott Tracy said:

Forgive a stupid foreigner. You have to specify a political party when you register to vote?

It's optional.

[placeholder]

2 hours ago, Scott Tracy said:

Forgive a stupid foreigner. You have to specify a political party when you register to vote?

Actually,in some states you can't register by party. 

 "Altogether, there are 31 states (plus the District of Columbia) with party registration; in the others, such as Virginia, voters register without reference to party."

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/registering-by-party-where-the-democrats-and-republicans-are-ahead/

[Callmeishmael]

I am going to repeat the prediction I made several months ago:  Harris will win the popular vote but Trump will win the Electoral College vote. 

 

Actually I said Biden originally, but the same holds true for Harris.

 

This is not that unlikely a prediction, the Republicans have only won the popular vote once (in 2004) since 1988.

 

The Electoral College was created as a compromise between the earliest states, so that they could reach an agreement about slavery, among other issues.  We have abolished slavery, perhaps it is time to abolish the Electoral College!

[Danderman123]

2 hours ago, Scott Tracy said:

Forgive a stupid foreigner. You have to specify a political party when you register to vote?

In some states, yes.

 

Because the political parties have primary elections to choose a candidate, and voters have to register as members of a party to vote in the primary elections of that party.