Deadlocked Between Trump and Harris in NBC News Poll as Election Approaches

[Social Media]

 

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws closer, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris find themselves in a deadlocked race, according to the latest NBC News poll. The poll reveals a virtual tie, with both candidates garnering 48% support among registered voters. Trump has gained ground recently, benefiting from a rebound in Republican support after a rocky debate performance and from positive reflections on his previous presidency. Meanwhile, Harris’ momentum from a summertime boost has slowed, contributing to the tightening race.

 

 

The survey, conducted between October 4 and 8, highlights the precarious nature of the election, with both candidates facing key challenges. Harris’ popularity has declined, particularly among independents and young voters, after a spike in approval following the September debate. Trump, on the other hand, has seen improved assessments of his past presidency, with voters viewing his tenure more favorably than President Joe Biden’s current term.

 

 

Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt noted that Harris’ momentum has stalled as the campaign has progressed into the fall. "The race is a dead heat," he said. Republican pollster Bill McInturff added that Harris faces significant "headwinds," including voter concerns that she represents a continuation of Biden's presidency. Conversely, many voters have begun to reflect more positively on Trump’s time in office, further narrowing the gap between the two candidates.

 

The poll underscores a significant sense of uncertainty, with 10% of voters indicating they might still change their minds, and many undecided voters remaining on the fence. Despite this, a record-high number of voters—62%—believe the upcoming election will have a profound impact on their lives, highlighting the high stakes of the contest. Additionally, third-party candidates could play a role in the outcome, as Trump gains a slight advantage when they are included in the ballot test, with 47% support compared to Harris’ 46%.

 

Voter turnout will be crucial in determining the final result. According to the poll, Trump would lead by 2 points if turnout is more favorable to Republicans, whereas Harris would gain a 3-point edge with higher Democratic turnout. The poll's margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, meaning the race remains highly competitive.

 

A defining feature of this election is the stark gender divide. Harris enjoys a 14-point advantage among women, while Trump leads by 16 points among men. This significant gender gap reflects broader demographic divides in the electorate. Harris leads among Black voters, younger voters, and white voters with college degrees. In contrast, Trump holds a commanding lead among rural voters, white voters overall, and whites without college degrees.

 

Harris’ decline in popularity has been a notable shift since September, when her positive ratings surged after the debate. At that time, she held a +3 net favorability rating, with 48% of voters viewing her positively and 45% negatively. In the latest poll, however, her favorability has dropped to 43%, with 49% viewing her negatively, resulting in a net rating of -6. Trump’s ratings, meanwhile, stand at 43% positive and 51% negative, his highest favorability score in the NBC News poll since leaving office.

 

Another key finding of the poll is the differing voter perceptions of Biden’s and Trump’s presidencies. While 25% of voters believe Biden’s policies have helped their families, 45% say they have been hurt by them. In contrast, 44% of voters feel Trump’s policies benefited them, compared to 31% who say they were harmed. Additionally, 48% of voters approve of Trump’s job performance as president—higher than his approval ratings during his time in office—while Biden’s current approval stands at 43%.

 

Voters are also more concerned about Harris following in Biden’s footsteps than they are about Trump repeating his first-term policies. A narrow majority, 43%, fear Harris would continue Biden’s approach, while 41% are more worried about Trump reverting to the behavior and policies of his previous administration.

 

One of the most striking findings of the poll is the high level of voter intensity around certain issues, particularly abortion. When asked if there is one issue so important that it would drive their vote, abortion topped the list at 22%, followed by immigration and border security (19%), protecting democracy and constitutional rights (18%), and the cost of living (16%).

 

On the issue of abortion, Harris holds a significant 19-point lead over Trump. She also leads on health care and is viewed as slightly more competent and effective. Trump, however, holds strong leads on border security, the Middle East, and addressing the cost of living. While Harris is perceived as the candidate representing change by a narrow margin of 5 points, her lead has diminished since September, when she held a 9-point advantage on this question.

 

Based on a report from NBC News 2024-10-16

 

 

 

[shdmn]

Texas is in play which pretty much says it all.  Harris landslide here we come.  The convicted felon fraudster's dementia is getting so bad he can't even form a coherent sentence anymore. 

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by shdmn

[shdmn]

The dementia seems to be getting pretty bad.

 

 

[Tug]

I’m not buying the polls after what trump did to our women folk the disparaging of nato the sucking up to the worst criminal regimes on our sad little planet naa he’s toast!

[HappyExpat57]

The record turnout of voters in Georgia is a real good indicator that these polls are good for one thing - spreading over your garden to make the plants grow better.

 

https://stateaffairs.com/georgia/elections/early-voting-election-2024-record/

[shdmn]

13 minutes ago, HappyExpat57 said:

The record turnout of voters in Georgia is a real good indicator that these polls are good for one thing - spreading over your garden to make the plants grow better.

 

https://stateaffairs.com/georgia/elections/early-voting-election-2024-record/

Polls at this point before the Obama landslide had Obama and Romney in a dead heat.  They also had Hillary winning big, so yea, not very accurate. 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by shdmn

[mushroomdave]

Just 3 more weeks.............

Tick Tock Orange Man, Tick Tock!!
"Lock Him Up, Lock Him Up !!"

[spidermike007]

If anything this says alot about the Democratic Party, and the fact that they did not do a very good job with the president or the vice presidential candidate selection.

 

The fact that she wouldn't be 10 points ahead at this stage of the game is astonishing, considering how idiotic Trump continues to be on a daily basis and the kind of things that come out of his mouth. I would think that they would scare the daylights out of most people. 

 

They're eating the dogs. 

They're eating the cats. 

They're taking your pets. 

Israel won't exist in 24 months if Harris is elected. 

I want to see my political opponents brought up on charges, if elected. 

 

I could go on and on and on all day long, with the inane stuff this man says, not to mention his ridiculously inferior VP candidate. 

[neeray]

It may be a neck and neck race at this time but with the ridiculous lies and bluster pouring out of Trump's pie hole nonstop, it's impossible to not imagine that Harris will prevail on November 5. 

[Woke to Sounds of Horking]

9 minutes ago, neeray said:

it's impossible to not imagine that Harris will prevail on November 5. 

... and then God help us all because the sh!tstorm begins.

[earlinclaifornia]

Increasing her lead

[earlinclaifornia]

1 hour ago, shdmn said:

Polls at this point before the Obama landslide had Obama and Romney in a dead heat.  They also had Hillary winning big, so yea, not very accurate. 

 

Turnout matters. Thank you females and youth.

[thesetat2013]

51 minutes ago, neeray said:

It may be a neck and neck race at this time but with the ridiculous lies and bluster pouring out of Trump's pie hole nonstop, it's impossible to not imagine that Harris will prevail on November 5. 

Welcome to the impossible. Neck and neck means just that. At this point the election can go either way.. There is no outstanding opinions on who will win except those done by people like you who are hardcore Trump haters. But it seems some trash is rightfully being thrown at Harris now with some truths exposed that were hidden previously. I would bet money that there is even more not yet learned about Harris. Trumps has been able to gain back the few points he was losing. I am sure he will gain more soon. People are getting smarter about Harris and her incompetencies and going Republican. Although there are still many who are blinded by hate for Trump that do not see Harris for what she is and for how the Democrats manipulate the press and the system to attack Trump. As well as manipulating the phrases used for Harris's incompetence like saying she changes with the times every time she flips on her policy opinions. 

[thesetat2013]

This OP must really be having the hardcores Dems reading it into a panic. To think how they hav consistently flambasted Trump and praised Harris's stupidity has constantly amazed me. I am giddy to see the replies from them still praising Harris and showing their hate for Trump. They will have a very bad next 4 years if Trump wins haha.. 

[RichardColeman]

48 minutes ago, earlinclaifornia said:

Increasing her lead

Absolutely no idea what 'democrat' poll you are looking at but I see Trump having a 12% more chance of winning PA (56 to 44%) and Trump winning the presidency 57 to 42%. The idiot woman is a stuffed

 

https://polymarket.com/event/pennsylvania-presidential-election-winner/will-a-republican-win-pennsylvania-presidential-election?tid=1729036255843

[Cryingdick]

One side is getting noticeably more nervous than the other. 

[Danderman123]

3 hours ago, shdmn said:

Texas is in play which pretty much says it all.  Harris landslide here we come.  The convicted felon fraudster's dementia is getting so bad he can't even form a coherent sentence anymore. 

 

 

I am not seeing this poll on the Google.

 

More to the point, don't rely on a single poll. The aggregate shows Harris down by 5 in Texas.

 

And no poll has shown Colin Allred in the lead.

Edited 1 minute ago by Danderman123

[Danderman123]

Here is a little data on the current state of the race:

 

Despite media reports, there isn't a big groundswell for Trump. 

 

Three months ago, Trump was planning to contest Virginia, New Hampshire and Minnesota. He dropped those plans after the Dem Convention, and he's still not campaigning in those states.

 

If the race is close, then turnout is everything. Early voting is predictive of turnout (ignoring 2020 early voting as a baseline) and the Dems are dominating early voting.

 

Trump's GOTV operation is non-existent, as he relies on outside help. This may be a fatal error.