How much will baht rise tomorrow?

[Celsius]

I say another 1% and with US and Canada cutting rates it will be US 31, CAD 22 AUD 20 by the end of this year.

Edited October 20 by Celsius

[KannikaP]

And what will be the winning lottery tickets next time?   5555

[Will B Good]

 

 

I'm bringing over next year's money........ Dec 4......people would be well advised to wait till Dec 5 to change their money.

[Celsius]

well, I just made my prediction. Scratch that....usd 30b by years end

[Isaan sailor]

Baht valuation makes no sense.  It doesn’t follow international trading trends—should be much lower than now.  I think foreign currency inflows have a direct bearing on Baht valuation.  Data from Bank of Thailand seems to confirm this.

[chiang mai]

One month ago the Baht was 33.07, yesterday, 30 days later it was 33.12!

 

What's the problem!

 

[KhunLA]

2 hours ago, chiang mai said:

One month ago the Baht was 33.07, yesterday, 30 days later it was 33.12!

 

What's the problem!

Yea, if very slight fluctuation of the baht stress people out, strongly suggest they never invest in the markets 

 

It's bee ฿33 / $1 USD, +/- 10%, for most of the past 24  yrs that I've been here.  Only times it moved more than 10 %, were in our / expats favor, ฿37-฿45 / $1 USD

 

 

If mere 10% is going to affect your smile, living overseas may not be for some people.

Edited October 20 by KhunLA

[CallumWK]

On 10/20/2024 at 1:30 PM, Celsius said:

I say another 1% and with US and Canada cutting rates it will be US 31, CAD 22 AUD 20 by the end of this year.

 

[chiang mai]

Folks sweating the intra-day or intra-week variations shouldn't play the currency game, play the long game with forex, not the short one, especially if you live here.

[CanadaSam]

My bet is 34 by the end of this month.

[Pattaya57]

Good time to buy USD with baht 😀

[ChaiyaTH]

On 10/20/2024 at 1:30 PM, Celsius said:

I say another 1% and with US and Canada cutting rates it will be US 31, CAD 22 AUD 20 by the end of this year.

Happy you are not our financial advisor. The usd baht rate will stabilize around 33-35 over next months.

[Celsius]

1 minute ago, ChaiyaTH said:

Happy you are not our financial advisor. The usd baht rate will stabilize around 33-35 over next months.

 

Oh dear.... so precise. I predict tomorrow USD between 32 and 34 🙄

 

 

 

 

[Isaan sailor]

On 10/21/2024 at 4:13 PM, chiang mai said:

Folks sweating the intra-day or intra-week variations shouldn't play the currency game, play the long game with forex, not the short one, especially if you live here.

Agree with your suggestions.  It does seem, however that forex Tradingviews of USD don’t correlate with actual exchange rates of USD/Baht.  Today we see a USD at 104.37 with a Wise price of 33.71.  Yet on July 24, we saw USD at the same 104.37–and Wise showed 35.15 USD/Baht.  Have the parameters changed?  Or did foreign inflows buoy up the Baht this month?

Not complaining here—just a bit confused

[chiang mai]

31 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

Agree with your suggestions.  It does seem, however that forex Tradingviews of USD don’t correlate with actual exchange rates of USD/Baht.  Today we see a USD at 104.37 with a Wise price of 33.71.  Yet on July 24, we saw USD at the same 104.37–and Wise showed 35.15 USD/Baht.  Have the parameters changed?  Or did foreign inflows buoy up the Baht this month?

Not complaining here—just a bit confused

You're only looking at one side of the coin, the USD side. You also have to consider what's happening on the THB side too. 104.37 reflects USD value, it doesn't say anything about THB value, which is relative to USD.

[Isaan sailor]

1 hour ago, chiang mai said:

You're only looking at one side of the coin, the USD side. You also have to consider what's happening on the THB side too. 104.37 reflects USD value, it doesn't say anything about THB value, which is relative to USD.

So no direct correlation of Tradingview USD prices to Wise USD/Baht.  That would make sense.  There must be other factors at play.

Thanks for responding.

[chiang mai]

14 minutes ago, Isaan sailor said:

So no direct correlation of Tradingview USD prices to Wise USD/Baht.  That would make sense.  There must be other factors at play.

Thanks for responding.

USD value is determined by a basket of six major currencies which gives us the Dollar Index. Other factors then affect that index and consequently USD value.

 

The following shows the factors that affect USD value:

 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/factors-drive-american-dollar.asp#:~:text=Like any other fiat currency,value on the global market.

 

THB on the other hand is only very small and its value is determined largely by the current account balance. Supply and demand isn't a significant factor because THB is not freely convertible. Selling USD (as in export trade bills) against THB does increase its value and selling THB against USD (imports) weakens it. So capital inflows will sell foreign currency against THB and potentially increase THB value. 

 

It's a lot lot easier to move THB value a long way using very little than it is to move the value of USD.

 

 

[Celsius]

Oh look, I fd up.

 

Well, it's not the first time

[GammaGlobulin]

I recall when the NTD (New Taiwan Dollar) suddenly went from 35:1 to 26:1, in a very short time.

Nobody could believe the rapid change.

 

Only I and Merrill Lynch predicted the rise three months in advance.

 

Now, I am predicting that the Baht will trade against the USD...at the rate of...

 

One USD to 26 Thai Baht.

 

Please, this time, mark my words.

 

 

[chiang mai]

7 hours ago, GammaGlobulin said:

I recall when the NTD (New Taiwan Dollar) suddenly went from 35:1 to 26:1, in a very short time.

Nobody could believe the rapid change.

 

Only I and Merrill Lynch predicted the rise three months in advance.

 

Now, I am predicting that the Baht will trade against the USD...at the rate of...

 

One USD to 26 Thai Baht.

 

Please, this time, mark my words.

 

 

I agree with this, that time will come.

 

USD/THB was pegged at 25, pre-1997 crash, I've always believed it will revisit that level at some point. We've seen 29 many times, in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2019 and 2020, it's almost guaranteed we'll see sub 30 before the end of the decade.

[Isaan sailor]

14 hours ago, chiang mai said:

USD value is determined by a basket of six major currencies which gives us the Dollar Index. Other factors then affect that index and consequently USD value.

 

The following shows the factors that affect USD value:

 

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/09/factors-drive-american-dollar.asp#:~:text=Like any other fiat currency,value on the global market.

 

THB on the other hand is only very small and its value is determined largely by the current account balance. Supply and demand isn't a significant factor because THB is not freely convertible. Selling USD (as in export trade bills) against THB does increase its value and selling THB against USD (imports) weakens it. So capital inflows will sell foreign currency against THB and potentially increase THB value. 

 

It's a lot lot easier to move THB value a long way using very little than it is to move the value of USD.

 

 

Good explanation.  Thanks for the link.

[Digitalbanana]

14 hours ago, Celsius said:

Well, it's not the first time

Here's a clue, no one on earth can predict the future.

[black tabby12345]

Want to know how to predict future currency value fluctuation? 

 

Too difficult to forecast How Much It Will Rise/Fall.

But still possible to guess whether it will go up or down in the near future(tomorrow, next week, next month...).

 

Click on the address below:

www.investing.com/currencies/usd-thb

 

after / , enter the currency pair you are interested in.

eur/thb, aud/thb, jpy/thb.

 

The Left Side of the pair is called Base Currency。

The Right Side is called Quote Currency.

This way, the pair indicates How Much value of the Base Currency the Quote Currency. 

If USD/ThB=33, One USD equals to THB33.

 

Also look at the indicator below.

Click on the Time Frame of your interest.

 

Sell means that currency is likely to go down from now on/later.

Buy means the opposite.

 

According to this, USD will rise today.

 

 

 

 

But it will go down next week.

 

 

 

 

Edited October 24 by black tabby12345

[popabear]

16 minutes ago, Digitalbanana said:

Here's a clue, no one on earth can predict the future.

Yes how true , but I can remember in my past  time of 43 years of coming to Thailand ,the Bath getting down to 15/16 Bath to the Australian $$$$ ..Regards Popa