Donald Trump was warned before launching military strikes on Iran that the campaign could strengthen the country’s most hardline factions rather than bring down the regime, according to US intelligence officials. Senior analysts told the president in pre-war briefings that Iran’s ruling structure would likely survive even heavy military losses — and that the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could emerge with greater influence. Officials described the warnings as “very sobering briefings”. One analyst said the outcome now unfolding had been anticipated. “It wasn’t just predictable,” the official said. “It was predicted.” Hardline regime likely to endure Intelligence assessments reportedly suggested the most likely scenario after a US attack was the emergence of a weakened but still functioning government dominated by the IRGC in Tehran. Such a “rump IRGC regime,” officials warned, would still retain parts of Iran’s nuclear and missile capability even after major military losses. The analysis has gained renewed attention after revelations that Iran’s new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei narrowly survived the air strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei. Leaked reports indicate Mojtaba avoided the attack by seconds after leaving a residential compound shortly before missiles struck. He was formally installed as supreme leader days later. War weakens commanders — not the system The US and Israel have killed dozens of senior Iranian commanders and officials in the ongoing campaign. Yet analysts say the broader political system of the Islamic Republic — now in its fifth decade — remains intact. Even Israeli officials privately acknowledge that the war offers no guarantee of regime collapse. Fresh strikes were reported overnight as the Israel Defense Forces targeted sites in Tehran and parts of Lebanon. For Washington, the intelligence warnings highlight a central dilemma: military force may degrade Iran’s capabilities, but it may also consolidate the very hardliners the campaign sought to weaken — leaving a battered but more entrenched regime in place. Trump was warned that strikes on Iran would strengthen regime
