Rachel Reeves Faces Mounting Pressure Pound falls and Rising Borrowing Costs

[The Cyclist]

There appears to be a few posters who are giving this thread a wide berth 😀😀

 

Just in case they are lurking but afraid to post

 

This is for you

 

 

And this is the face of someone who has just realised she has madeba monumental **** up

 

 

 

And the carnage is only just beginning.

[JonnyF]

15 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

There appears to be a few posters who are giving this thread a wide berth 😀😀

 

Indeed.

 

Even the ones who are here have no defense for this clown show so they have resorted to attacking Liz Truss. 

 

Desperate stuff. 😃

[mokwit]

I must say, I'm surprised @Chomper Higgot isn't active on this thread. He is conspicuous by his absence, I would have though he would be on here crowing about what great things Labour are doing for the economy, and how well they are managing it.

 

He was certainly crowing about their great achievements before.

[mokwit]

17 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

And this is the face of someone who has just realised she has madeba monumental **** up

Turns out running the Exchequer wasn't like shouting the loudest at Student Union meetings.

[The Cyclist]

Just now, mokwit said:

Turns out running the Exchequer wasn't like shouting the loudest at Student Union meetings.

 

Or previously working in Customer Complaints.

 

And that 10 year Gilt yield has now risen from 4.61% to 4.85%

 

Just waiting for inflation to start the upward tremd, closely followed by Interest rates.

 

The difference between 14 years sniping from the sidelines, and actually colliding with reality of being sitting in the big seats.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

12 minutes ago, mokwit said:

I must say, I'm surprised @Chomper Higgot isn't active on this thread. He is conspicuous by his absence, I would have though he would be on here crowing about what great things Labour are doing for the economy, and how well they are managing it.

 

He was certainly crowing about their great achievements before.

Not getting the attention you crave?

 

[mokwit]

23 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

The difference between 14 years sniping from the sidelines, and actually colliding with reality of being sitting in the big seats.

They don't seem to have been as critical of the Government since the election, even though they are doing a terrible job.

[mokwit]

8 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Not getting the attention you crave?

 

Ah Chomper, good you are here, any comment on Labour's management of the economy? I'm surprised we haven't seen you clamouring for attention on this thread and insulting everybody left right and centre for criticising Labours economic policy.

 

We are here to discuss Labours economic policy. kindly stay on topic like you are always demanding others do.

 

Using his @Chomper Higgot was like summoning a demon.

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, mokwit said:

Ah Chomper, good you are here, any comment on Labour's management of the economy?

 

We are here to discuss Labours economic policy. kindly stay on topic like you are always demanding others do.

 

Using his @Chomper Higgot was like summoning a demon.

 

 

Since you seem to know what the topic of discussion is and insisting staying on topic.

 

Why are you discussing me?

 

 

[Woke to Sounds of Horking]

Kind of eerie how Ms Reeves and Ms Freeland (Canada, recently resigned Finance Minister) appear to be out of their depth.

 

The finances of both the UK and Canada are turd bowl like at the moment.

 

Coincidence?

[mokwit]

2 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Since you seem to know what the topic of discussion is and insisting staying on topic.

 

Why are you discussing me?

 

 

Wouldn't want you to miss out on the discussion, bearing in mind how you have been crowing about Labours great economic policy.

[Chomper Higgot]

23 minutes ago, mokwit said:

Wouldn't want you to miss out on the discussion, bearing in mind how you have been crowing about Labours great economic policy.

I can’t help you with your separation anxiety but I can at least provide you with some reading to help you understand the issue you should be discussing is not as black and white as you evidently believe:

 

https://www.ftadviser.com/gilts/2025/1/9/why-are-uk-government-bond-yields-rising/

 

 

[mokwit]

51 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I can’t help you with your separation anxiety but I can at least provide you with some reading to help you understand the issue you should be discussing is not as black and white as you evidently believe:

 

https://www.ftadviser.com/gilts/2025/1/9/why-are-uk-government-bond-yields-rising/

 

 

 

As someone who worked as a FX dealer in London and as an equity strategist, I don't really need your link to an article.  I used to be flown all over the world to advise people like those quoted in the article.

 

I would say that while there are multiple takes at the time, with people focusing on what is important to them/what they look at, actually at the end of the day there is probably actually one right explanation which emerges after the event out of the 'fog of war' to explain the bulk of the buying and selling which caused a move in the market after the fact. I have been in the middle of this multiple times. So often it can be black and white at the end of the day.

 

Right now what I would say is going on is that there is an increase in perceived country risk due to lack of confidence in the Government, and in particular Reeves, that is is leading to an increased country risk premium and that higher risk premium is driving the interest rate and the exchange rate in opposite directions. You could point to a strengthening dollar being the factor, rather than GBP weakness, increasing interest rates globally, or inflation being in the mix like the various people people in the article, and some may be transacting on those. Multiple investor types transact for multiple reasons.

 

Effectively the UK IMO is perceived as being an old style "emerging market" with very high risk due to excess debt and inability to meet the obligations   - think of Thailand in 1997. The growth that the debt level interest and repayments schedule had assumed, suddenly wasn't there. having no been an emerging market for a long time we have not put place the safeguards that "new style" emerging markets have done since learning their lesson last time.

 

In short Labour are leading us into a Thailand 1997 situation and the market recognises this.

 

I have kept it simple, but it probably has gone over your head as all you can o is post links. I take it you do understand what you posted, or did you just post it because it was the FT?

 

 

 

 

 

[Chomper Higgot]

1 minute ago, mokwit said:

 

As someone who worked as a FX dealer in London and as an equity strategist, I don't really need your link to an article.  I used to be flown all over the world to advise people like those quoted in the article.

 

I would say that while there are multiple takes at the time, with people focusing on what is important to them/what they look at, actually at the end of the day there is probably actually one right explanation which emerges after the event out of the 'fog of war' to explain the bulk of the buying and selling which caused a move in the market after the fact. I have been in the middle of this multiple times. So often it can be black and white at the end of the day.

 

Right now what I would say is going on is that there is an increase in perceived country risk due to lack of confidence in the Government, and in articular Reeves, that is is leading to an increased country risk premium and that higher risk premium is driving the interest rate and the exchange rate in opposite directions. You could point to a strengthening dollar being the factor, rather than GBP weakness, increasing interest rates globally, or inflation being in the mix like the various people people in the article, and some may be transacting on those. Multiple investor types transact for multiple reasons.

 

Effectively the UK IMO is perceived as being an old style "emerging market" with very high risk due to excess debt and inability to meet the obligations   - think of Thailand in 1997. The growth that the debt level interest and repayments schedule had assumed, suddenly wasn't there. having no been an emerging market for a long time we have not put place the safeguards that "new style" emerging markets have done since learning their lesson last time.

 

In short Labour are leading us into a Thailand 1997 situation and the market recognises this.

 

I have kept it simple, but it probably has gone over your head as all you can o is post links.

 

 

 

 

 

I meanwhile provided a link to a credible source.

[mokwit]

13 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I meanwhile provided a link to a credible source.

You posted a link to an article you don't understand, thinking because it was the FT it was "credible". You won't make money in the markets following what the FT says. The people they quote are people who come to the phone. it is very rare that someone who is regarded as really having a clue goes public. FFS you have no idea about financial markets. Nobody who who actually deals in the market pays attention to what journalists say, and as I said there are multiple takes in the market. I have given mine, what's yours?

 

It's not what market participants are saying that is important, it is what they are DOING.

 

That said, it's not to say I have never had my eyes opened by what a journalist or someone he quotes has said and changed my view as a result. But the idea that there is a credible source that explains the markets is just naivety.

 

What is your take? Which of the views expressed in the article do you think is the explanation? they could ALL be wrong.

[Patong2021]

In gloom and despair, visionaries (or opportunists depending on your view) will move in to fill the void. That's how the US Vulture Funds grew in popularity and  power in the USA. The financial pain and misery of some is the great opportunity for those  prepared to  take on risk, with other people's money, of course. 🙂

 

I am fairly certain that there are some well  capitalized investment funds hoping for more financial ruin in the UK. This will allow them to pick up some distressed assets at a bargain. The Gulf Arab funds, and the holding companies for the Russian Oligarch diaspora is looking for  investment opportunities and the London financiers have been servicing them for decades, so it will be an easy bit of profit taking.

 

It seems that Labour and its supporters won't be happy until everyone is impoverished equally and those who work hard and are entrpreneurial are crushed. Sucks to be one of the 20% of the UK population who carry the  tax burden for 80% of the country.

 

So, as an aside, how long will Rachel Reeves survive in her position? Will she burn out  in 2025, be shuffled out or just give up as she destroys the national economy? People want to blame Starmer, but he is only the titular leader. He is helped  and enabled by a long list of very dangerous and nasty ministers who all seem to have personal grudges and chips on their shoulders.

[hotandsticky]

3 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

In gloom and despair, visionaries (or opportunists depending on your view) will move in to fill the void. That's how the US Vulture Funds grew in popularity and  power in the USA. The financial pain and misery of some is the great opportunity for those  prepared to  take on risk, with other people's money, of course. 🙂

 

I am fairly certain that there are some well  capitalized investment funds hoping for more financial ruin in the UK. This will allow them to pick up some distressed assets at a bargain. The Gulf Arab funds, and the holding companies for the Russian Oligarch diaspora is looking for  investment opportunities and the London financiers have been servicing them for decades, so it will be an easy bit of profit taking.

 

It seems that Labour and its supporters won't be happy until everyone is impoverished equally and those who work hard and are entrpreneurial are crushed. Sucks to be one of the 20% of the UK population who carry the  tax burden for 80% of the country.

 

So, as an aside, how long will Rachel Reeves survive in her position? Will she burn out  in 2025, be shuffled out or just give up as she destroys the national economy? People want to blame Starmer, but he is only the titular leader. He is helped  and enabled by a long list of very dangerous and nasty ministers who all seem to have personal grudges and chips on their shoulders.

 

 

Speculators don't make much money in a flat market. 

 

Volatility = profit.

 

Bad news = volatility.

 

 

Vultures promulgate/exaggerate bad news 

[roo860]

20 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

We are all getting sucked into Rachels black hole one way or another 🤔

As long as its not Diane Abbot's🫣🫣

[Patong2021]

5 minutes ago, hotandsticky said:

 

 

Speculators don't make much money in a flat market. 

 

Volatility = profit.

 

Bad news = volatility.

 

 

Vultures promulgate/exaggerate bad news 

 How would you characterize the UK market? Volatile? Depressed? Flat?

I sense a bit of a despair and  the beginning of a panic, but not the type we see when banks  have a run.   What do you think will happen in the  markets in the next 3 months?

Was it ever this bad back in the pre Thatcher period?  All I know was that when I was a kid, English made shoes were considered top quality and then it just stopped and they were no more shoes made in  England.

[Briggsy]

I think further tax rises are in the offing.

 

Tax relief of pensions (perhaps limited to 20%) and inheritance tax. There is not much they can do since they have guaranteed no rises to income tax and employee's National Insurance. We may see changes to the borrowing rules to create new magic "headroom".

 

I doubt a new Labour government will want to be seen to reduce spending.

[hotandsticky]

4 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

 How would you characterize the UK market? Volatile? Depressed? Flat?

I sense a bit of a despair and  the beginning of a panic, but not the type we see when banks  have a run.   What do you think will happen in the  markets in the next 3 months?

Was it ever this bad back in the pre Thatcher period?  All I know was that when I was a kid, English made shoes were considered top quality and then it just stopped and they were no more shoes made in  England.

 

 

Flat to depressed.......................a typical part of an economic cycle - the skill/luck of any government is coming out the other end on top.

[James105]

47 minutes ago, Briggsy said:

I think further tax rises are in the offing.

 

Tax relief of pensions (perhaps limited to 20%) and inheritance tax. There is not much they can do since they have guaranteed no rises to income tax and employee's National Insurance. We may see changes to the borrowing rules to create new magic "headroom".

 

I doubt a new Labour government will want to be seen to reduce spending.

 

They have lied about everything else they promised to get into power, so whats just another lie by increasing taxes?  Rachel from accounts has jetted off to China no doubt to see how they manage to keep growing their economy, whilst they chuckle behind her back thinking of course you cannot grow your economy you absolute moron as you have made energy the most expensive on the planet.  China of course continuing to build coal-fired power stations to give them the cheap energy that undercuts the rest of the market - hence growth.   

 

Starmer meanwhile has put himself in a sticky position as Reeves has to be fired so another chancellor can be put in place and give confidence to the markets, but he made such a big ceremony of her making history by being the first female chancellor he is going to look even more of a moron (if that is possible) when she becomes the first female chancellor to be fired from the job. 

 

Also, Labour didn't have anyone qualified to be chancellor in the first place so had to promote that girl from customer services.  Are they allowed to use someone from another party as chancellor or does it have to be a Labour politician?  I believe Farage has some experience in the banking sector so would be a good candidate for the job.  

[scubascuba3]

Pensions ⬇️ because of Labour, they won't get back in for decades

[DonniePeverley]

Why can't the UK get itself out of this mess?

 

They have some really thick politicians unfortunately who aren't helping. 

 

Labour have been extremely disappointing. Even their NHS reforms haven't been set out yet - what on earth were they doing in opposition all those years? They should have been set to go on day one with that majority.

[Chomper Higgot]

3 hours ago, mokwit said:

You posted a link to an article you don't understand, thinking because it was the FT it was "credible". You won't make money in the markets following what the FT says. The people they quote are people who come to the phone. it is very rare that someone who is regarded as really having a clue goes public. FFS you have no idea about financial markets. Nobody who who actually deals in the market pays attention to what journalists say, and as I said there are multiple takes in the market. I have given mine, what's yours?

 

It's not what market participants are saying that is important, it is what they are DOING.

 

That said, it's not to say I have never had my eyes opened by what a journalist or someone he quotes has said and changed my view as a result. But the idea that there is a credible source that explains the markets is just naivety.

 

What is your take? Which of the views expressed in the article do you think is the explanation? they could ALL be wrong.

I’m not trying to make money in the markets on the basis of anything the FT says.

You referenced me in this thread in order to draw me in to give you the attention you crave, then moan when I do comment.

 

You might not like my link to the FT, but it is credible and, just as importantly, verifiable. The same can not be said of every claim made in this discussion.

[candide]

On 1/10/2025 at 12:57 PM, Andycoops said:

The idiot imposed her own rules rather than listen to people who are actually qualified and aren't Rachel from accounts, so she will only have herself to blame.

 

The disaster created so far has turned the UK economy from a moderately thriving 1 to a near corpse in the space of 6 months.

 

Despite the statements about growth, there isn't any.

 

The incompetence is just staggering, having waited so long they can't have f***** up in a more spectacular fashion.

 

Moderately thriving, you said? 🙂

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

[The Cyclist]

4 minutes ago, candide said:

Moderately thriving, you said?

 

What was the UK's priority for 2023 ?
 

I seem to recall it was getting inflation under control from a 2022 high of over 10%.

 

How high will inflation go under Labour ? Will we get into the high teens or perhaps over the 20% mark ?

[Andycoops]

15 minutes ago, candide said:

Moderately thriving, you said? 🙂

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

Yes I did.

 

It's f****** dead now...

[Will B Good]

4 minutes ago, The Cyclist said:

 

What was the UK's priority for 2023 ?
 

I seem to recall it was getting inflation under control from a 2022 high of over 10%.

 

How high will inflation go under Labour ? Will we get into the high teens or perhaps over the 20% mark ?

 

Well let's hope it isn't as bad as the Tories.....cumulative inflation from their last effort in power was 40%.

[The Cyclist]

2 minutes ago, Will B Good said:

 

Well let's hope it isn't as bad as the Tories.....cumulative inflation from their last effort in power was 40%.

 

Well if the BoE target is 2% then 14 years accumulated would be 28%.

 

So given 3 massive events, an accumulated total of 40% is rather good going.