Thailand Faces Record Low Births, Sparking Population Concerns

[snoop1130]

File photo for reference only

 

In a remarkable demographic shift, Thailand has reported fewer than 500,000 births in a single year for the first time in 75 years. In 2024, only 462,240 babies were born, a significant drop from the previous year's 519,000. Mahidol University’s expert, Associate Professor Chalermpol Chamchan, emphasised that this marks the fourth consecutive year where mortalities surpassed births, underscoring a demographic dilemma.

 

The total fertility rate in Thailand has plummeted to a concerning 1.0, below Japan's 1.2, aligning more closely with nations like South Korea and Singapore known for their low birth rates. Projections are grim, forecasting a dramatic population decrease from 66 million to a mere 40 million over the next 50 years. Correspondingly, the workforce could dwindle by 15 million, raising alarms over future labour shortages and economic ramifications.

 

Efforts by the government, such as the campaign 'Have Children for the Nation,' have yet to substantially sway public sentiment. A recent survey revealed that only 35.8% of respondents definitely intend to have children. An additional 29.9% are ambivalent, presenting an opportunity for targeted policies to bolster this number to over 60%, according to Chalermpol.

 

 

Contributing to this trend are economic hardships, environmental pollution, and deteriorating living conditions, dissuading prospective parents. The Interior Ministry's data corroborate these findings; Thailand's population saw a minor decline of 0.06% by the end of 2023, decreasing by 37,860 individuals.

 

Thailand now ranks among the globe's top three countries grappling with the steepest birth rate declines, boasting an 81% drop over the last 74 years. This significant decrease has even put Thailand ahead of Japan, highlighting a pressing global concern of contracting populations. As the country navigates these challenges, strategic policymaking and societal shifts are imperative to address the burgeoning demographic crisis.

 

-- 2025-01-17

 

 

[Tropicalevo]

When you are poor and have very little hope, guess what. You cannot afford to have kids.

[CygnusX1]

This problem (if it really is a problem) should eventually correct itself. Women who want several babies will, unsurprisingly, produce more offspring than women who don’t want babies. Their daughters will tend to inherit their mothers’ desire for babies, and so the proportion of women in the population who want several babies will increase over the generations, and after enough time, we’ll be back to the old problem of the population increasing too steeply.

In any case, you don’t have to be a rabid Greenie to realise that an economic system that relies on a continuous increase in the population is no different from a Ponzi scheme, in that it will eventually run out of resources, just as every Ponzi scheme runs out of new investors.

[Pouatchee]

old news. as always, if they loosened the visa and green cards for foreigners I am sure many of us would be happy to help boost the birth rate... with our superior genes it would also help strengthen the gene pool and help build a brighter future for this country. I for one, would gladly support a few willing young ladies...

[DonniePeverley]

The population is pushed into servicing cheap mass tourism at an early age. 

 

They aren't even able to get into education to further themselves, as they seek short term gain for cheap tourism. 

[Rampant Rabbit]

instead of sticking a  helmet on yer knob stick one on yer head might help

[hotchilli]

Birth rates align with the economy, if people can afford children they will have them, if the pockets are empty, the birth rate falls.

[watchcat]

12 hours ago, snoop1130 said:

Thailand has reported fewer than 500,000 births in a single year for the first time in 75 years. In 2024, only 462,240 babies were born, a significant drop from the previous year's 519,000. Mahidol University’s expert, Associate Professor Chalermpol Chamchan, emphasised that this marks the fourth consecutive year where mortalities surpassed births, underscoring a demographic dilemma.

 

Again.....

[bkk6060]

Too many effeminate males.

[Muhendis]

This is scary stuff for governments worldwide because it reduces tax income which is needed to support an increasing aging population.

It's rather like an inverted boomer time.

 

[PomPolo]

I'm willing to help out to get the numbers back up.

[JimHuaHin]

Many will disagree, but here goes.

 

The main groups wanting increased population are the war mongers and (big) business.

 

The former need more soldiers as cannon fodder to achieve their expansionists plans, eg Putin and Xi.

 

While the latter need more consumers to increase profits.

 

The Earth has limited resources and can only hold a finite population of all life forms.

 

Increasing retirement age, and thus the working-age population, can help fund the care of the elderly, as would the introduction of new technology (the technologies exist, but have not been widely applied)..

[J Branche]

GOing to try to explain what little I understand from the Thai Family perspective.

Most Thai's do Not earn a living wage, or are in perpetual debt (it may swap from car, house, school, medical)

Some Thai families the baby is raised until X months when it no longer benefits from mother's milk.  The baby is then given from daughter to mother or boyfriend/husbands mother to raise while the birth mother goes to work.

Any baby should be thought of as I/we need to work X more hours a week.
I forfeit X hours of free time.

These people have dreams like all of us, owning house and land, car, motorbike, going on vacation and traveling.  They Want to look successful in the local surrounding communities eyes.

When only a small percentage of Thai's earn a living wage, Why would they want to have More babies?

[CygnusX1]

Back in 1930, the famous economist John Maynard Keynes predicted that by 2030, the average person would only need to work 15 hours a week. Given the spectacular advances in labour saving technologies since 1930, together with large scale participation of women in the workforce, if we could somehow bring him to the present day, he’d surely be mystified as to our worries about the labour force in a gradually falling population being insufficient to maintain a prosperous society .

[mfd101]

48 minutes ago, J Branche said:

When only a small percentage of Thai's earn a living wage, Why would they want to have More babies?

Hasn't stopped them in the past! My MIL (c6 or 7 years older than me) grew up in poverty & has produced c11 children in 3 marriages. My b/f is the youngest (age 35). Her children have produced between 0 and 3 kids each, none yet reproducing.

 

So there is clearly a cultural change over the generations (mobile phones & TV changing expectations) but poverty alone doesn't seem to play a role.

 

I suspect this is no different from every other developing country in the C21st.

 

 

[mikebell]

It doesn't help that a large proportion of road deaths are young males in their teens/ twenties.

[asdf1234]

Would put my mind at ease if every country was experiencing something similar. Less people is not a bad thing

[Spilornis]

Nothing new.

Even India is not meeting replacement rates with numbers being kept up for the next ten years or so by longer lifespans.

Immigration aside which will support those countries with desirable economies the world's population will halve in the next fifty years.

It's one of the reasons I've become less concerned with "climate change".

China will be the world's test case for rapidly reducing population. It has already started despite longer lifespans because of the now abandoned one child policy.

[connda]

That's ok - Myanmar migrants will make up the difference, especially with Thailand's "anchor baby" laws that apply to these migrants. It's funny.  After all of these centuries of fighting between Myanmar and Thailand - Myanmar will eventually win. 

[Gsxrnz]

The worldwide fertility rate is 2.3 (and declining rapidly), and only slightly above the replacement rate of 2.1.

 

There would be serious consequences if we were talking about Polar Bears or the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker, but it seems that the possibility of self-induced extinction of Homo Sapiens is not really a thing. 

 

As an example, China's population is forecast to reduce from 1.4 Billion to 525 million by 2100. And the Western world is on a similar track. China's population shrinks again and is set to more than halve | Victoria University

 

Depopulation will be a much-used phrase in 2050. But unlike Climate Change, it really will be a genuine existential threat to civilization. 

[connda]

5 minutes ago, Spilornis said:

Nothing new.

Even India is not meeting replacement rates with numbers being kept up for the next ten years or so by longer lifespans.

Immigration aside which will support those countries with desirable economies the world's population will halve in the next fifty years.

It's one of the reasons I've become less concerned with "climate change".

China will be the world's test case for rapidly reducing population. It has already started despite longer lifespans because of the now abandoned one child policy.

That's Ok.  Africa and the Middle East will make up the deficit.

[J Branche]

24 minutes ago, mfd101 said:

Hasn't stopped them in the past! My MIL (c6 or 7 years older than me) grew up in poverty & has produced c11 children in 3 marriages. My b/f is the youngest (age 35). Her children have produced between 0 and 3 kids each, none yet reproducing.

 

So there is clearly a cultural change over the generations (mobile phones & TV changing expectations) but poverty alone doesn't seem to play a role.

 

I suspect this is no different from every other developing country in the C21st.

 

 

Hopefully it a more constructed decision vs. "Accident" or unplanned event.  They don't earn a living wage so DON'T think they can afford pills and protection all the time.

 

Thai's will work temporarily move wherever there is good paying work if there are few restrictions (have to care for mother/father, have family home and Don't want to rent, Children but have no one to care for them outside of school hours).  

 

I know a new mother who has temporary 3 month job in South Korea just to cover starting costs of new baby.

 

My understanding is I believe the Government gives them 1000 baht? A month to help with the baby.  The babies IQ formula is 1500 baht a month.

 

With the advancements in AI and Robotics they can handle some of the tasks of people.  Unfortunately how is the Government going to TAX AI and Robotics to cover the amount lost from jobs/labor.

[connda]

1 minute ago, Gsxrnz said:

Depopulation will be a much-used phrase in 2050. But unlike Climate Change, it really will be a genuine existential threat to civilization. 

I doubt it will be an "existential threat to civilization."  It will eventually self-correct, although it may be an existential threat to what will become minority Anglo and Asian populations.  Well, unless the more authoritarian regimes issue "'Boom-boom' or else" laws.

[Woke to Sounds of Horking]

It's because all the guys are jacking it to internet p0rn. Far less hassle than dealing with some broad.

 

As for the worker replacement dilemma.......no one ever heard of A.I. and robots?  Who needs people?

[connda]

Just now, Woke to Sounds of Horking said:

It's because all the guys are jacking it to internet p0rn. Far less hassle than dealing with some broad.

 

As for the worker replacement dilemma.......no one ever heard of A.I. and robots?  Who needs people?

Who needs to 'jack it' if you live in Thailand?  Just ban condoms. 

[sandyf]

3 hours ago, hotchilli said:

Birth rates align with the economy, if people can afford children they will have them, if the pockets are empty, the birth rate falls.

Bit of a narrow minded perspective.

More to do with female education and liberation, some are more interested in a career than a family. I have 2 Thai nieces, both been to uni, one is a doctor early thirties just been sponsored for a 3 year training course. No interest in getting married far less having children. The other is early 20s and works for an event organiser, too busy travelling to have any sort of home life.

It is no coincidence that the highest birth rates are in countries with poor education.

[Justanotherone]

so many 40+ women on tinder, pretending never had any child...

 

less people is a good thing, there is no pension pyramid scam like in the west, well 600 baht is nothing

 

other poor slave countries can come fill the jobs thais don't want or can do, no pension or social security to be paid either

 

 

the career women  wake up one day, on the wrong side of 40, all alone and crying why they have no kid(s) or partner... thank god the farang does not mind leftover women

[KireB]

14 hours ago, Tropicalevo said:

When you are poor and have very little hope, guess what. You cannot afford to have kids.

See here the impossible balancing act. Poor people need children to take care of them when older.

[KireB]

1 hour ago, mikebell said:

It doesn't help that a large proportion of road deaths are young males in their teens/ twenties.

Since when do men bear children?  1 donor can have tens of kids with different women.

[Briggsy]

Great news for this vastly overpopulated planet.

 

Well done, once again, the women of Thailand. Keep doing what you are doing.