UK Navigates Trump's Unpredictability with Secret 'mini' Cabinet

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“Everybody’s nervous—because they simply don’t know what he is going to do.” This sentiment captures the trepidation felt by governments, business leaders, and military officials as Donald Trump prepares to take the Oath of Office for a second time. His return to the presidency, marked by an unpredictable style and bold rhetoric, has sparked both anxiety and strategic recalibration across the globe, particularly in the UK.  

 

Trump’s presidency promises sweeping changes with immediate effects on international relations, trade, and security. His capacity for the unexpected remains undimmed, and Whitehall is keenly aware of the risks—and opportunities—his leadership might bring. Senior ministers, including Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary David Lammy, and Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds, have convened secret "mini-cabinet" meetings to prepare for potential scenarios. According to one insider, "looking for opportunities" has been the focus, with an understanding that second-guessing Trump’s moves could lead to strategic paralysis.  

 

A notable adjustment in approach involves Lord Mandelson, now the UK’s key diplomatic voice in Washington. Mandelson, who once criticized Trump harshly, recently praised him in an article for Fox News, signaling a pragmatic shift in tone. While there is a determination to remain calm and measured, memories of Trump’s first term linger, including his erratic late-night social media posts and moments of diplomatic discord, such as his reaction to the Salisbury nerve agent attack.  

 

The UK aims to avoid being drawn into Trump’s more controversial proposals while leveraging its close security ties with the US. Jens Stoltenberg, former NATO Secretary General, acknowledged Trump’s penchant for creating “uncertainty” but emphasized the importance of mitigating risks collectively. Trump’s potential pivot on issues such as Ukraine and NATO funding is of particular concern. While Trump has claimed he could end the Ukraine conflict in mere months, insiders in both Kyiv and Westminster sense a looming negotiation. Stoltenberg stressed that continued military support for Ukraine is crucial to achieving a balanced peace, observing, “The paradox is that weapons to Ukraine is the path to peace in Ukraine.”  

 

Economic policy presents another layer of uncertainty. Trump’s advocacy for tariffs and a protectionist stance could disrupt global trade, sparking fears of a trade war between the US, EU, and China. As one UK minister noted, such a shift would represent a dramatic departure from the post-World War II economic order. While the UK seeks to influence Trump’s economic approach, there are concerns about its relevance in a contest dominated by larger trading blocs.  

 

On a personal level, the dynamic between Starmer and Trump will be pivotal. Starmer, known for his methodical approach, presents a stark contrast to Trump’s brash unpredictability. Past UK leaders experienced mixed results with Trump: Boris Johnson’s flattery often succeeded, while Theresa May faced interruptions and dismissiveness. Starmer’s allies believe substance over style will prevail, emphasizing the importance of direct conversations and mutual interests.  

 

Despite Labour’s historical preference for Democratic leadership, pragmatism dominates current strategies. One foreign policy insider remarked, “It might come at a price, but it is in our interest for him to be a success, not be cantankerous.” The UK must navigate Trump’s demands while influencing his decisions to align with British interests.  

 

Trump’s second term represents a volatile chapter in global politics. As one minister succinctly put it, “It’s all gone in Trump’s direction.” The UK, bracing for unpredictability, hopes to turn the challenges of Trump’s presidency into opportunities. Whether this strategy will succeed remains to be seen—but the waiting is almost over.

 

Based on a report by BBC 2025-01-21