Farage’s Reform UK Surges as Tory Voters Defect in Droves

[nauseus]

46 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Oh look another personal attack.

 

Perish the thought. 

[Chomper Higgot]

4 minutes ago, nauseus said:

 

Looks like the distraction began on day one. No help needed to achieve self-destruction by this bunch of lying morons. 

Well certainly the rightwing media’s campaign against the Labour Government kicked off on day one.

[Eloquent pilgrim]

1 hour ago, Chomper Higgot said:

It’s not hatred, it’s pelican competition.

 

They both compete for support from the same pool of racists and bigots.

 

 

 

The classic far left slur of “racists and bigots” in a sweeping generalisation, designed, as usual, to negate any value of those with opposing views to uncontrolled immigration. Reform received 4 million votes at the last election, 14% of the votes cast, but here you are as a non UK resident, dismissing them as racists and bigots.

 

I suppose that is easier for you than offering an intellectual argument as to what benefit it is to the UK, and Europe, to import thousand and thousands of mostly young men who are adherents to Islam, a religion and culture that is totally incompatible with western civilisation, and refuses to integrate.

 

What are the benefits do you think ? is it the 50, and counting, muslim rape gangs, or maybe the 85, and counting Sharia councils, because I, and many others, are unable to see any benefits at all.

 

 

 

 

[Elvis Presley]

The writing is on the wall for the UK.

 

Farage WILL be prime minister at some point in the near future.

 

Populism/Nationalism is on the rise across the west.

You can thank the so called 'Religion of Peace' for that.

 

regards,

Elvis.

[superal]

Badenoch was not a good choice as the new Tory leader , as current polls and defections show . What surprises me is that Labour are so high in the polls but as we know polls are often wrong . The reality is , there are those that will always stay with their traditional political parties and defend them stubbornly .  

The Tories only way to remain buoyant is to take a back seat with the Reform party . Like it or not the Western world countries are mostly against uncontrolled immigration at the expense of their own nationals whose standards of living have fallen . Hence the popularity of Trump and other so-called right wing politicians .  Now whether Farage is the man to save the UK I am not sure . Richard Tice could be the one . 

Further more , under this Labour lot , you must be careful of what you say or if against Labours thinking you may end up in jail . Tommy Robinson is no saint but he speaks mostly about  the reality of the demise of the UK and his imprisonment of 18 months in solitary confinement was over the top .  

[MicroB]

31 minutes ago, Mr Meeseeks said:

 

Nobody cares.

 

The next election will be fought on immigration.

 

There are too many foreigners in Britain.

 

Read the room. 

 

 

Reading the same room and closer to the action than you. Next election; ~340 Tory Seats, ~206 Labour, Reform, 45, nearly all Northern seats, Libs; 20ish, SNP; 20 ish, 19 for rest. Tory government with a majority of 15, not including the NI Unionist parties. In the run up, one Reform MP defects to the Tories but loses his seat. Reform mostly win at the expense of the Labour Party. Farage doesn't run for Clacton, as he can't stand the town, and instead switches to Bradford and wins there after a narrow contest with George Galloway.

 

By 2029, Trump will no longer be President, either an ex-President or dead. People will be sick of Farage name droppeing an 80 year old, who spent most of the previous years making an enemy of the UK. There will be a new raft of US politicians, Republican or Democrat, who will treat Farage with contempt. He will have spent the last few years trying to justify to the British people why Trump spent years screwing over the UK, first through tariffs, then  when Trump abandons Estonia after Russian tanks briefly seize the capital.  Farage is simply too much of a reminder of the MAGA madness. The British people don't like bullies, and we always back the underdog.  We generally don't like God Botherers, Holy Joes, whether real or pretend. Whether true or not, Trump will become the laughing stock in the UK, thanks to how the Sun, Mirror, Mail report on him, as they draw the UK-First wagons. We will be reminded why we call Americans the "Septics". Like a Septic Tank, full of it. While there is a close relationship between the two countries, there has always been a certain tension.

 

The next election will be based on the economy and taxes. Labour will tax us, the economy won't be doing well, because of basic ideological differences. The Tories will have spent the previous 5 years, with a fully stocked front bench, picking apart Labour policy after policy in a way that Reform with 4-5 MPs cannot talk about. Reform is still basically a 1 person party. They won't get the airtime, except for 1 issue only,  When the reason people don't have money in their pocket and can't afford their mortgage, its easier to vocalise that its Labour's taxation policies and incompetance than to pretend all its down to immigrants. The Tories will point to a past, pre-2019, and running the economy well. While still a Brexit party, they will do a more convincing job of steering that middle line between the US and Europe. The country is noticeably more hostile to the US, particularly after President Trump dismisses the Royal Marines  as ineffectual and backs the Argentinian claims to the Falklands as he continues to pursue Greenland, but it is now talking about Jamaica as well, The British people feel a closer affection for the Commonwealth, and don't like how kith and kin in Canada are being bullied by the German from New York.

 

Reform, being the third largest party in parliament, get to ask more questions, which raises their profile, but its a highwater market for the protest party. With more voices, the lack of Party Discipline becomes apparent and no one actually knews what they stand for, as the party tries to beat the electorial reform issue again, in a wierd alliance withn the new PETA-Green Party, which no one understands.

 

The incoming Conservative government is largely unrecognisable from 2024, but people are sick of Farage's gurning, but can't recall the name of a single other Reform MP. When quizzed, the public are convinced that Anne Widdecombe must be a Reform MP as she's on telly a lot. They don't like her screechy voice. Liz Truss loses her deposit while standing as the Real Reform UK Party (slogan; MEGA) candidate in Boston, a sad end for not a particularly rosey political career.

 

Simple analysis of 2019 Tory voters and how they voted in 2024

 

25% of Tories in 2019 didn't bother  voting in 2024. They will vote tory again with the right leader, and that leader ain't Farage

50% of the 2019 Tories who voted in 2024 stuck with the Tories and Rishi Sunak. If Farage couldn't win Tories who voted for an Indian in 2024, he have no chance in 2029. Get the right leader, and they will come back over Even without the right leader, they will. So thats 37% of the 2019 voters in the bag.

25% voted Farage. Some might come back.

20% voted Labour or Liberal Dems. They will also come back, and no way will they vote Farage.

 

In 2024, Reform came second in 98 seats., 60 of those Labour, all in the North of England.  They won't grow their share in the natural Tory seats. They will pick up Labour seats. 40 gains for them will be a very good night for them. With greater exposure in parliament, their candidates will be found wanting as the 2029-34 parliament becomes very concerned about the economic recovery.

 

The 83 election shows Labour floating voters are more likely to switch to Tory and vice versa, rather than a disruptor party. Hence, Reform will be like a blue version of the SDP, but with less nous.
 

 

[James105]

8 minutes ago, superal said:

Badenoch was not a good choice as the new Tory leader , as current polls and defections show . What surprises me is that Labour are so high in the polls but as we know polls are often wrong . The reality is , there are those that will always stay with their traditional political parties and defend them stubbornly .  

The Tories only way to remain buoyant is to take a back seat with the Reform party . Like it or not the Western world countries are mostly against uncontrolled immigration at the expense of their own nationals whose standards of living have fallen . Hence the popularity of Trump and other so-called right wing politicians .  Now whether Farage is the man to save the UK I am not sure . Richard Tice could be the one . 

Further more , under this Labour lot , you must be careful of what you say or if against Labours thinking you may end up in jail . Tommy Robinson is no saint but he speaks mostly about  the reality of the demise of the UK and his imprisonment of 18 months in solitary confinement was over the top .  

 

Don't forget the state employs millions of people.   These are pretty much all Labour voters and will keep Labour on at least 20%.  Unless Labour start killing public sector workers first born or something equally horrific to them such as bringing their pensions into line with the private sector then that will probably remain the same.   

[MicroB]

46 minutes ago, NoshowJones said:

Labour has never had any working class roots in my adult lifetime.

 

 

That makes you 28 years old.

[MicroB]

58 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

Or the third option.

 

Labour delivers improved economy and improved public services while actually dealing with immigration rather than using as a means to distract the electorate.

 

 

 

 

I doubt it. The public will get confused about what the government thinks needs improving and what they think needs improving.

 

Depending how it plays out, what will have some resonance in the UK, is how the US government is cutting costs. Labour will not cut the costs of its Ministries. Take for example Education;  it actually has a huge budget, and it will get bigger under Labour, and that will be spent not on things people think are important in education, but on things Labour thinks is important. SO my local MP believes its the most important thing ever, in the histriy of schools that more mental health counsellors are appointed and free breakfast clubs set up. A majortiy of teachers surveyed by TES indicated the expectation is that attendance will not be improved, neither would child health.

 

Healthcare is complex, Brutally, the only way to get post COVID waiting times down is for patients to die. They will be distracted by vain attempts to address that, while ignoring the bigger issue of social care funding and underfunded (actually not funded) Discharge-to-Assess, which is truely Orwellian for patients, but its a process that appeals to Labour's instincts (basiically, if you are in hospital for a period, when you are discharged, you are now discharged to a Care Home, and the State gets to decide if you can ever go home again).

 

The economy won't recover. Staglation is setting in, a result of a mixture of Labour ineptness; Racheal Reeves is no Gordon Brown, but also handicapped by the UK;s reduced position in the world (we are less of an influence on global economic trends now, and will be largely powerless to respnd to Trumpian tariffs.).

[NoshowJones]

19 minutes ago, MicroB said:

 

 

That makes you 28 years old.

No, I remember as a young guy Harold Wilson leading the country into bankruptcy in the seventies and every Labour government since robbing the working class with all sorts of tax increases, and made up taxes ie SET whatever that meant, and what about Blair and Brown? Need I say more?

[connda]

Like Germany is trying to do to the AfD, I wonder when the Tories and Labor get together and try to ban the Reform UK party in order to "Save democracy from 'far-right extremism'."

In the meanwhile the Reform UK party attempts to save the UK from woke authoritarianism bordering on totalitarianism.  The voters are in revolt and although not a majority, a significant quorum of voters are rejecting the status quo the the status quo is besides itself in fear and loathing.