Markets bet on a trump recession

Markets bet on a trump recession

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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/10/trump-tariffs-markets-live-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/
 

warned the US economy faces ‘a period of transition’ Credit: AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

 

 

Bond market traders are ramping up bets on a US recession amid fears Donald Trump’s tariff trade war will hammer American growth.

The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds slipped back below 4pc in Asian trading hours overnight after the US president said on Sunday that the world’s largest economy faces “a period of transition.” 

The comments echoed words used by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday, who has talked about his desire for falling US bond yields - a benchmark for government borrowing costs.

The returns offered to investors in the short-dated bond have dropped sharply since mid-February amid the US president’s tariff war against allies and China.

Traders have piled into the safe-haven asset amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates to support the economy.

“Recession risk is definitely higher because of the sequence of Trump’s policies – tariffs first, tax cuts later,” said Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management told Bloomberg.

The benchmark 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.27pc. The move lower in US bond yields is in sharp contrast to Europe, where returns have surged after Germany announced its plans for a €500bn fund to invest in defence and infrastructure, ripping up the fiscal rules of the largest economy on the Continent.

“Just a couple of weeks ago we were getting questions about whether we think the US economy’s re-accelerating —- and now all of a sudden the R word is being brought up repeatedly,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US

Markets her? What does that mean?

Maybe you want to rework the title into English?

9 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

warned the US economy faces ‘a period of transition’ 

Well you can't fix the debt by spending more.

Good job buddy.

49 minutes ago, 3NUMBAS said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/10/trump-tariffs-markets-live-latest-news-pound-euro-ftse-100/
 

warned the US economy faces ‘a period of transition’ Credit: AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana

 

 

Bond market traders are ramping up bets on a US recession amid fears Donald Trump’s tariff trade war will hammer American growth.

The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds slipped back below 4pc in Asian trading hours overnight after the US president said on Sunday that the world’s largest economy faces “a period of transition.” 

The comments echoed words used by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday, who has talked about his desire for falling US bond yields - a benchmark for government borrowing costs.

The returns offered to investors in the short-dated bond have dropped sharply since mid-February amid the US president’s tariff war against allies and China.

Traders have piled into the safe-haven asset amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will have to cut interest rates to support the economy.

“Recession risk is definitely higher because of the sequence of Trump’s policies – tariffs first, tax cuts later,” said Tracy Chen, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global Investment Management told Bloomberg.

The benchmark 10-year yield fell three basis points to 4.27pc. The move lower in US bond yields is in sharp contrast to Europe, where returns have surged after Germany announced its plans for a €500bn fund to invest in defence and infrastructure, ripping up the fiscal rules of the largest economy on the Continent.

“Just a couple of weeks ago we were getting questions about whether we think the US economy’s re-accelerating —- and now all of a sudden the R word is being brought up repeatedly,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US

That is a whole lotta words to say you don't understand carrot & stick negotiations.

Oh yes, I see it as a real possibility.  But, it historically is part of the normal longer economic process.

And, what happens when the Recession is over?  The markets take off and reach all time highs.

So, just a reset which is kinda needed just some pain along the way.

35 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

That is a whole lotta words to say you don't understand carrot & stick negotiations.

That's just a few words to say you don't understand economics.

36 minutes ago, SunnyinBangrak said:

That is a whole lotta words to say you don't understand carrot & stick negotiations.

I think it's more baby and bathwater Sunny !

I would love to see another 20% drop from here. I am sure all of the financial gurus on this site are prepared to take advantage of whatever is presented to them. It has been hard to find fairly valued stocks lately. 

First we had the Trump Covid lockdown.

Now the Trump recession.

What a loser!