Farage’s Reform UK Projected to Lead Hung Parliament in Surprise Poll Upset

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Farage’s Reform UK Projected to Lead Hung Parliament in Surprise Poll Upset

 

In a political twist few would have predicted a year ago, a new survey suggests that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could become the largest party in a hung parliament if a general election were held today. The startling projection comes from polling organization More in Common, whose data model, based on responses from 16,000 voters, places Reform at 180 seats—15 more than both the Conservatives and Labour, who are each predicted to secure 165.

 

 

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, described the findings as a reflection of a political landscape in flux. “British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level,” he said, highlighting the breakdown of traditional party loyalties and the volatility that now defines the electorate.

 

 

The poll paints a bleak picture for Labour, suggesting that Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership could deliver an outcome even worse than Jeremy Corbyn's disastrous 2019 result. According to the model, Labour would lose 246 seats, with some of its most high-profile MPs at risk of defeat. Ten cabinet ministers are forecast to lose their constituencies, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Defence Secretary John Healey, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, and Health Secretary Wes Streeting.

 

 

Labour’s previously formidable coalition appears to be fracturing from both ends of the political spectrum. The poll suggests major losses across key heartlands such as the red wall, Scotland, and South Wales valleys—areas that have historically underpinned the party’s electoral strength.

 

Although polls conducted so far in advance of an election are speculative and cannot accurately predict future outcomes, the numbers still offer a significant morale boost to Reform UK, which currently holds only four seats, having lost one of the five it gained in last year’s election.

 

“Nigel Farage’s Reform UK emerge as the biggest winners of this parliament so far, with our model suggesting they could well become the largest party in parliament, something almost unthinkable a year ago,” said Tryl. He acknowledged that while Reform remains far from a governing majority, its growing support signals a seismic shift in public sentiment.

 

“It is clear Reform’s momentum is real, and the question is whether their new level of support represents the start of a path to government or a ceiling that Farage’s polarising brand finds hard to overcome,” Tryl added.

 

Meanwhile, Labour finds itself increasingly vulnerable in the face of rising public frustration. “Labour, meanwhile, having secured a historic victory, now find themselves on the wrong side of a disillusioned electorate frustrated at the slow pace of change and some of the government’s early missteps,” Tryl noted.

 

With just weeks remaining before Reform UK faces its next significant electoral test, this poll—however speculative—underscores the unpredictable nature of Britain’s current political climate and the growing appetite among voters for something radically different.

 

Adpated by ASEAN Now from The Independent  2025-04-22

 

 

[sammieuk1]

And Jim Davidson' could be justice minister from what I'm reading 🤔

[JonnyF]

Labour have been a complete disaster. A joke. Worse than anyone could have imagined. 

 

So many people who voted for them as a protest against the Tories must be regretting their decision to leap out of the frying pan and into the fire.

 

Now that people despise both Labour AND the Tories, Reform are likely to do very well. 

[RayC]

" .. a new survey suggests that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could become the largest party in a hung parliament if a general election were held today."

 

Speculation about an imaginary event. Rightio. 

 

 

[Will B Good]

Four years out and this is the forecast?......what a joke.

 

Reform will tear itself apart by the end of next year.

[Bkk Brian]

24 minutes ago, RayC said:

" .. a new survey suggests that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK could become the largest party in a hung parliament if a general election were held today."

 

Speculation about an imaginary event. Rightio. 

 

 

Isn't that what the majority of polls are? That said the article does address that. 

 

“British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level”.

 

"Although polls conducted so far in advance of an election are speculative and cannot accurately predict future outcomes, the numbers still offer a significant morale boost to Reform UK, which currently holds only four seats, having lost one of the five it gained in last year’s election."

 

"Meanwhile, Labour finds itself increasingly vulnerable in the face of rising public frustration"

[RayC]

31 minutes ago, Bkk Brian said:

Isn't that what the majority of polls are? That said the article does address that. 

 

"Although polls conducted so far in advance of an election are speculative and cannot accurately predict future outcomes, the numbers still offer a significant morale boost to Reform UK, which currently holds only four seats, having lost one of the five it gained in last year’s election."

 

"Meanwhile, Labour finds itself increasingly vulnerable in the face of rising public frustration"

 

Given that the next GE is unlikely to be held before 2028 at the earliest, this poll is imo completely irrelevant. A survey into voting intentions at the forthcoming local elections would have more relevance.

[Bkk Brian]

14 minutes ago, RayC said:

 

Given that the next GE is unlikely to be held before 2028 at the earliest, this poll is imo completely irrelevant. A survey into voting intentions at the forthcoming local elections would have more relevance.

I am sure one on local elections will come. In the meantime we have this one that shows.

 

1 hour ago, Bkk Brian said:

British politics has fragmented to an unprecedented level”.

 

"Meanwhile, Labour finds itself increasingly vulnerable in the face of rising public frustration"

But I guess everyone already new that.

[Chomper Higgot]

I’m rather surprised to see who supports Reform given who Reform chooses as candidates, though, I add, not too surprised:

 

https://hopenothate.org.uk/2025/04/17/reform-party-candidates-doncaster/

[Bkk Brian]

13 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

I’m rather surprised to see who supports Reform given who Reform chooses as candidates, though, I add, not too surprised:

 

https://hopenothate.org.uk/2025/04/17/reform-party-candidates-doncaster/

More deflection and off topic hijacking, why not link to all the Labour member and candidates tweets that had anti semitic content that have occurred throughout the years.