Tories Slide to Fourth as Reform and Lib Dems Surge in New Poll Blow

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Tories Slide to Fourth as Reform and Lib Dems Surge in New Poll Blow

 

The Conservative Party has fallen to its lowest poll rating since the end of Theresa May’s premiership, with support plummeting to just 16 percent, placing the party behind not only Labour and Reform UK but now also the Liberal Democrats. The YouGov survey for The Times revealed the Tories had slipped into fourth place—an unprecedented low not seen since the fraught days of 2019 when Theresa May was battling to pass her Brexit deal through Parliament.

 

Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has continued its dramatic ascent, now polling at 29 percent, widening its lead over Labour by seven points. Labour remains in second place, while the Liberal Democrats have surged into third with 17 percent, narrowly overtaking the Conservatives. The Green Party follows closely behind with 10 percent.

 

The findings paint a grim picture for Kemi Badenoch, one of the prominent figures attempting to restore cohesion and credibility to the fractured Conservative Party. This latest data underscores the scale of the challenge she faces, with the electorate increasingly turning away from the Tories toward alternative parties on both the right and center.

 

A significant part of this decline can be attributed to voter defection. One-third—33 percent—of those who backed the Conservatives in the last general election now say they intend to vote for Reform UK. Even Labour is losing some ground to Farage’s party, with 9 percent of its 2019 voters indicating support for Reform. The Liberal Democrats have also made notable gains across both camps, attracting 7 percent of former Tory voters and 17 percent of Labour’s 2019 supporters. Meanwhile, 10 percent of Labour’s base is now leaning towards the Greens.

 

The poll's release coincided with internal unrest within the Labour Party. At a private meeting of the parliamentary party on Monday night, some MPs raised concerns with Sir Keir Starmer over the government's positions on immigration, winter fuel payments, and welfare cuts. In response, the Prime Minister defended his firm stance on migration, telling MPs, “The Conservatives are not our principal opponent. Reform are our main rivals for power.” He added that Labour had a “moral responsibility to make sure Farage never wins” and promised the party would be more vocal about its achievements, particularly in areas such as employment and the cost of living.

 

For the Tories, the current situation bears unsettling similarities to the political climate of June 2019. Then, the Brexit Party—Reform’s predecessor—was riding high at 26 percent, ahead of the Lib Dems on 22 percent, Labour on 19 percent, and the Conservatives languishing at 17 percent. That period of crisis ultimately led to May’s resignation and the rise of Boris Johnson, who unified the party under a clear Brexit message and led them to a decisive election victory in December 2019.

 

But this time, both Conservative and Labour strategists see a potentially more lasting threat. Reform UK’s strong showing in the local elections earlier this month, including seizing control of six councils from the Conservatives and beating Labour in the Runcorn & Helsby by-election, has added credibility to the party’s national ambitions. Since January, Reform’s support has climbed steadily from 22 percent to 29 percent, driven by growing disillusionment with both of the main parties.

 

Although the Lib Dems’ narrow lead over the Conservatives remains within the margin of error, it has nonetheless set off alarm bells within Tory HQ. Party strategists now face the delicate task of addressing the surge in Reform support without alienating voters in traditionally Tory, liberal-leaning regions known as the “Blue Wall,” where concerns over issues like immigration are less pronounced.

 

As support continues to shift, the data points not just to a momentary dip for the Conservatives, but to an increasingly fragmented political landscape in which voter loyalty is rapidly eroding, and new contenders are shaping the future of British politics.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Times  2025-05-22

 

 

[JonnyF]

Badenoch has been disappointing.

 

I suspect she will be replaced with Jenrick. 

 

I'd rather see The Tories disband and Jenrick go to Reform. Consolidate the right of centre vote. We cannot risk Labour slithering into another term on the basis of a split right wing vote. Britain wouldn't survive. 

[The Cyclist]

as I posted on another thread.

 

Both the Tories and Labour are toast for the foreseeable future.

 

 

[frank83628]

Is that correct, Labour at 13%?

[JonnyF]

1 hour ago, frank83628 said:

Is that correct, Labour at 13%?

 

Very doubtful.

 

Sounds way too high.

[Bkk Brian]

3 hours ago, frank83628 said:

Is that correct, Labour at 13%?

The Labour Gov is on a massive 14% approval rating as of the 19th May............lol

 

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/trackers/government-approval

[brewsterbudgen]

3 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

as I posted on another thread.

 

Both the Tories and Labour are toast for the foreseeable future.

 

 

 

Absolutely.  Fortunately there's time before the next election for the nation to come to its senses!

[Summerinsiam]

The support for reform is nothing but a protest vote and they will never form a government. If they did it would be a disaster, as they are one-trick ponies with no real policies, who have absolutely no idea how to deal with the myriad domestic and international problems that the UK faces. Farage is a clever politician, but not a serious prospect for actual governance. After all its easy to snipe from the sidelines in opposition, without having to make real decisions and trade-offs.

[blazes]

Surely, that 10% figure for the Greens is way too high.

Is the country that impoverished intellectually???

[candide]

I see two trends.

 

One is that parties who are, or have been governing, are sanctioned. A phenomenon which seems to be generalised accross countries.

 

The other is that the two parties benefitting from vote intent transfers are the two parties showing a clear positioning re. Brexit, while the two parties known for including both anti- and pro-brexit factions are declining. 

 

[The Cyclist]

1 hour ago, brewsterbudgen said:

 

Absolutely.  Fortunately there's time before the next election for the nation to come to its senses!

 

An interesting response ?
 

In what way do you mean the Nation to come to its senses ?

[The Cyclist]

2 hours ago, Summerinsiam said:

The support for reform is nothing but a protest vote and they will never form a government.

 

That remains to be seen and we will have an answer at the next GE

 

2 hours ago, Summerinsiam said:

If they did it would be a disaster,

 

Any more of a disaster than Tories or Labour who have presided over the UK's decline spanning the last 30 years or so.

 

Even Einstein realised doing the same thing over and over again, expecting a different result was madness.

[blazes]

6 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

 

That remains to be seen and we will have an answer at the next GE

 

 

Any more of a disaster than Tories or Labour who have presided over the UK's decline spanning the last 30 years or so.

 

 

 

30???? That's very generous.  More like 80, I'd say, with maybe a hiccup in the Thatcher era.

[riclag]

13 hours ago, frank83628 said:

Is that correct, Labour at 13%?

13 % - When people realize the far left are beyond the pale! While Starmer is desperately trying to pivot towards the center.

[Andycoops]

Badenoch is completely clueless, has no gravitas whatsoever, the Tories have created their own mess with putting the party before the nation and the merry go round of PMs with no electoral mandate.

[JonnyF]

18 hours ago, blazes said:

Surely, that 10% figure for the Greens is way too high.

Is the country that impoverished intellectually???

 

Well, Labour won with a large majority so the evidence would suggest the answer is YES. 

 

However, even Monkeys can adjust their behaviour when they see it is damaging them. So I would expect the Woke mind virus that is currently infecting so many young British people to subside at the next election when they realize the government's destructive policies are impoverishing them to the level of third world status. 

[Patong2021]

The polling results are hardly a n indication of support for Reform. Farage and Reform would not have a mandate to govern if they received 29% of the votes. No one would at less than 35%. What one might see is a minority - coalition government. An unworkable option in the UK, because no one would work with Reform.

 

The  knives will soon come out for Badenoch. She is still in her position because no one wants her job. The Conservative party can bounce back, but it would require  discipline and an end to the bickering that is often based on personal animosity than on actual policy.  Miracles can happen and we saw that in Canada. The Liberal Party of Canada was all but lost , but then along came  Mark Carney and his Irish luck reviving the party and bringing it back to power and 2 seats short of a majority. The Tories need an outside reputable person to  bring the party back to life. Alot of the dead wood needs to go now, to step aside and let younger people  move up. If they can calm the waters, attention will soon turn to Farage and his crew of limited people.  Labour will fracture on its own as the Corbynistas  rally to push their hateful agenda.  There is time to change and to fix things.

[The Cyclist]

10 hours ago, blazes said:

 

30???? That's very generous.  More like 80, I'd say, with maybe a hiccup in the Thatcher era.

 

I can live with that

 

 

[BritManToo]

52 minutes ago, Patong2021 said:

Labour will fracture on its own as the Corbynistas  rally to push their hateful agenda.

A socialist utopia without Europe sounds pretty good to me!

[frank83628]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

 

Well, Labour won with a large majority so the evidence would suggest the answer is YES. 

 

However, even Monkeys can adjust their behaviour when they see it is damaging them. So I would expect the Woke mind virus that is currently infecting so many young British people to subside at the next election when they realize the government's destructive policies are impoverishing them to the level of third world status. 

Did labour not win with only 34%?

[RayC]

5 hours ago, frank83628 said:

Did labour not win with only 34%?

 

No UK government has won > 50% of the vote for more than 50 years so why single out this government?

[James105]

1 hour ago, RayC said:

 

No UK government has won > 50% of the vote for more than 50 years so why single out this government?

 

No government has been given a majority with so little votes.   Labour had more votes under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 when the population was at least 3 million less.  Just 20% of the electorate voted for Labour.   Starmer is making hare-brained decisions on a daily basis with no manifesto mandate.   His latest indefensible calamity:

 

 

Oh, and the small print means he has weakened security as should we be in a conflict with an ally of China, he has agreed to "expeditiously inform them" of this.  Never has the UK had a PM who so clearly hates the UK.  

 

[brewsterbudgen]

26 minutes ago, James105 said:

 

No government has been given a majority with so little votes.   Labour had more votes under Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 when the population was at least 3 million less.  Just 20% of the electorate voted for Labour.   Starmer is making hare-brained decisions on a daily basis with no manifesto mandate.   His latest indefensible calamity:

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, a shame Corbyn didn't win.  So, perhaps all sides can agree that we should switch to a proportional representation system?

[James105]

Sure, it needs someone in power to do this so you just need to get the moronic PM to agree to losing 170 MPs and increasing the Reform MP count to 100 and the Tories count to 139 (which would give Reform + Conservative the most seats).   Or would you prefer to hold off on this until a party you don't like gets into power?  

[The Cyclist]

1 hour ago, RayC said:

 

No UK government has won > 50% of the vote for more than 50 years so why single out this government?

 

Because it was the lowest vote share in a 100 years.

 

A once in a Century event is usually trumpeted loudly. But I'm not convinced that Starmer would be keen on it being known that it was Labours worse result in a 100 years.

 

Even magic Grandpa had a better vote share.

[RayC]

1 hour ago, The Cyclist said:

 

Because it was the lowest vote share in a 100 years.

 

 

1 hour ago, James105 said:

 

 

1 hour ago, James105 said:

 

No government has been given a majority with so little votes. 

 

 

You are both clearly dissatisfied with the current FPTP system. I agree it's undemocratic.

 

Out of curiosity, were you both among the 13% of the electorate who voted in favour of the Alternative vote system in the 2011 referendum or has your view changed recently i.e. since June 2024?

[The Cyclist]

1 minute ago, RayC said:

You are both clearly dissatisfied with the current FPTP system. I agree it's undemocratic.

 

Out of curiosity, were you both among the 13% of the electorate who voted in favour of the Alternative vote system in the 2011 referendum or has your view changed recently i.e. since June 2024?

 

As someone once said

 

Our FPTP system is the worst form of Government, but it is better than the alternatives.

 

But that really has nothing to do with

 

1 hour ago, The Cyclist said:

 

Because it was the lowest vote share in a 100 years.

 

A once in a Century event is usually trumpeted loudly. But I'm not convinced that Starmer would be keen on it being known that it was Labours worse result in a 100 years.

 

Even magic Grandpa had a better vote share.

 

[RayC]

3 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

 

As someone once said

 

Our FPTP system is the worst form of Government, but it is better than the alternatives.

 

But that really has nothing to do with

 

 

 

It has everything to do with it. The fact that Labour has 62% of parliamentary seats having obtained 34% of the vote shows how flawed the system is. However, I doubt that you and others will complain so loudly if the Tories or Reform find themselves in a similar situation after the next election.

 

Whoever uttered that quote clearly didn't understand that governments are meant to represent the will of the majority. FPTP fails dismally on that score.

 

It is claimed that FPTP - unlike PR - delivers 'strong' government. To the extent that FPTP usually delivers a majority in parliament for one party that is true. However, how many radical governments has the UK had in the past 100 years? Atlee's in 1945? Thatcher's in 1984? The others have largely been variations on a theme.

[hotandsticky]

On 5/22/2025 at 7:42 AM, blazes said:

Surely, that 10% figure for the Greens is way too high.

Is the country that impoverished intellectually???

 

 

... and, can anyone actually see any point - at all - in the Liberal Democrats.

 

 

It just looks like a home for people who don't know who to vote for - or are too scared to commit to a real party. It is a sort of abstention.