Tourism Chinese Arrivals to Thailand Projected to Drop Nearly 30% in 2025

[webfact]

Photo courtesy of South China Morning Post

 

The Bank of Thailand has dramatically reduced its forecast for Chinese tourists in 2025, expecting nearly a 30% drop.

 

This decrease slashes Chinese visitor numbers from 7 million to only 5 million, as explained by Pranee Sutthasri, senior director of the macroeconomic department. Consequently, the central bank has adjusted its overall foreign arrivals estimate from 39.5 million to 37.5 million for the year.

 

Chinese tourist arrivals in 2024 fell to 6.7 million, a significant decline from the pre-pandemic peak of 11 million in 2019. The bank cites concerns over the potential impact of US tariff policies, which weigh heavily on the tourism forecast.

 

Under more severe tariff scenarios, total foreign arrivals are projected to reach just 37 million this year. Minutes from the Bank of Thailand’s recent meetings reveal growing anxiety about the weakening tourism sector—a cornerstone of the national economy.

 

Compounding these challenges is a shift in tourist preferences and promotion of domestic tourism by the Chinese government. The global economic slowdown, marked by extended trade tensions, is further curbing discretionary spending on international travel, notes the regulator.

 

Additionally, average tourist spending and arrival numbers may not bounce back to the pre-pandemic highs of nearly 40 million visitors and their hefty contributions to the Thai economy.

Alternative forecasts echo these concerns.

 

Kiatnakin Phatra Research Centre (KKP Research) anticipates a modest increase to 36.2 million foreign arrivals, though noting fewer Chinese visitors. With travellers opting for destinations like Japan, the research highlights the looming downturn in tourism's contribution to Thailand’s GDP.

 

Kasikorn Research Centre (K-Research) predicts a year-on-year decline to 34.5 million arrivals, with revenue from foreign tourists expected to fall by 3%—down to 1.62 trillion baht. From January 1 to May 11, Thailand hosted 12.9 million foreign tourists, reflecting a 1% decrease from the previous year.

 

Future economic growth may rely on a substantial boost in foreign tourist arrivals, potentially up to 70 million by 2030, to balance a weakening manufacturing sector, declining exports, and tourism, according to KKP Research. As tourism faces new hurdles, these forecasts underscore the pivotal role it plays in shaping Thailand's economic landscape.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from Bangkok Post 2025-05-22

 

 

[Emdog]

judging from the photo, why would anyone want to come to that crush of humanity?

[Pouatchee]

9 hours ago, webfact said:

Future economic growth may rely on a substantial boost in foreign tourist arrivals

 

yet they keep making it more and more difficult to get in... 

[whiteman]

Long may it last

[bkk6060]

Oh, too bad.

[parallelman]

Enter TAT update increase da da🎵

[hotchilli]

23 hours ago, webfact said:

The Bank of Thailand has dramatically reduced its forecast for Chinese tourists in 2025, expecting nearly a 30% drop.

Ouchhhh... 

[SOTIRIOS]

...Wishful Thinking...(?)

[Caldera]

That is hardly surprising, considering the stories that have made the news in China with regards to Thailand. Also, there are affordable and more controlled alternatives nearby, such as Vietnam. 

[JJ-Thailand]

On 5/22/2025 at 8:38 AM, webfact said:

This decrease slashes Chinese visitor numbers from 7 million to only 5 million

Anybody sad?

[Look Chang]

And the new income taxes imposed on foreigners residing in Thailand are certainly not going to attract future expatriates.

[Photoguy21]

Next week the prediction will be an increase of 80%

[Sydebolle]

Use the money the boys spend on all their projections - which are total bo11ocks anyway and invest in updating training materials for guides and some "mystery tourists".

Mystery tourists are experts camouflaged as innocent tourists to inspect the product tourism. They pay for the services and file a report about their experiences in an objective, neutral way with suggestions for improvements. This is financed by the source from which the projections are being paid from.

In retail in Europe this is done with mystery shoppers; works wonders and is appreciated by all. 

[ashkale]

Chinese economy has been in doldrums for months now. The people simply dont have the disposable cash nor the confidence in future to spend in ever pricier Thailand. I found prices in Bangkok comparable to those in secondary cities in Korea and Japan, and then the push fr domestic tourism by the Chinese gov. Not looking good for Thailand for sure. 

[Quentin Zen]

30% seems optimistic.   The only good thing (for LOS) is that when they come back they can come back in the zillions, and fast.   

 

Just let China build some railroads all through the country.   Also figure out what they are doing with the water.......those dams up north are troublesome.

 

China Mai and China Rai hopefully not in our lifetimes

[bbbbooboo]

hmmm… good news indeed