3 minutes ago, hotsun said:

I dont understand golds value as a hedge against the dollar because bitcoin does it better. I wouldnt expect anyone here to understand

Yeah, it was silly of me to think I might. 

2 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Yeah, it was silly of me to think I might. 

Its not you personally, i think old folk without kids have no reason to research it

1 hour ago, Yellowtail said:

While I do not disagree, that chart is a bit suspect. In 1920, gold was about $20 an ounce. A $20 gold piece was 90% gold and weighed just over a Troy ounce. The last year they were minted was 1933. 

Inflation adjusted price.

 

On 5/22/2025 at 8:43 PM, swissie said:

I am starting to feel a bit uneasy. More and more "financial advisors" pushing Gold as a uncontested "store of value", a "safe harbor". The "can't lose" syndrome making the rounds.

 

Those financial advisors forgetting to mention, that Gold has gone thru "bear markets". The last one lasting from July 2011 to December 2015. From $ 1830 down to $ 1060. Not sure if Gold holders considered Gold as a store of value during this time.

 

Let's face it, Gold is a metal (a commodity if you will) it's value measured in US$ daily. Supply and demand, just like in any other commodity.

 

I find it disturbing that increasingly financial advisors are recommending Gold to small investors as a "can't lose" investment.

Never put all your eggs in one basket.  In "normal times" the recommendation was usually about 5% of asset value in gold.  Many in current abnormal times say 30 to 40%.  Gold is not just another commodity.  It is money.  It is one of only two tier-one assets, the other being the US dollar, which is not money, it is a fiat currency.  The dollar is falling in value, which explains some part of the rise of the dollar price of gold.  The other being gold demand, so far mostly from central banks and financial institutions.  Gold will slip back a bit from time to time but is on an upward trend.  Do not buy 'paper-gold', do not invest in gold ETFs, do not invest in gold exploration companies, buy gold mining shares or royalty or streaming shares for leverage in a gold bull market (works the other way when the gold price falls).  Store your bullion, allocated and ideally segregated with a vaulting company in a trusted jurisdiction other than your country of origin or of domicile.  All markets are cyclic.  So look at the cycles.  In theory we should be in a commodities bull market, but it is being hit by economic turmoil.  Gold can survive a recession, where most commodities will fail.  Remember gold bullion pays no dividends; it costs to store and insure it.  Look upon it as a form of insurance, rather than profits (although the current circumstances are exceptional).

3 hours ago, hotsun said:

Its not you personally, i think old folk without kids have no reason to research it

Both gold and bitcoin are good to circumvent inheritance tax.

 

Bitcoin would be very easy for folks that don't have children or heirs.

The bitcoin would just get lost .

 

Not sure if this interview might lend perspective to investing in the current unusual state of the markets:

 

 

11 hours ago, ericbj said:

Not sure if this interview might lend perspective to investing in the current unusual state of the markets:

 

 

What did they say? 

32 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

What did they say? 

Amongst other things they spoke of how gold may perform in a crisis - as it has performed in previous crises, i.e. down, then up.

On 5/25/2025 at 11:50 AM, ExpatOilWorker said:

1980-2000 was a bad streek for gold. Could easily happen again.

 

This is exactly why I started this thread. = Bear markets in Gold DO happen.

 

Above chart shows a peak in 1980 @ $ 2400, finding a bottom in 2000 @ $ 400. A 20 year long bear market. During this time, Gold-Bugs were not "happy campers".

 

The 1980 peak was the result of high inflation. Today, it's global "uncertainty" and the reckless deficit-spending of most coutries that supports the price of Gold. As there is no reversal of this constellation is in sight, Gold will remain "well supported". Me thinks.

 

But lo and behold, we have a miracle worker in the White House. If he manages to cure the world, Gold may again enter a 20 year bear market.😊

On 5/24/2025 at 4:55 PM, jas007 said:

And that's why silver is a good deal right now. There's only so much of it above ground, and only so much is mined every year.  And it's not just for investment, it's used in industry.  And for years, the price has been manipulated.  One of these days, the true value will surface.   

 Currently Silver is trying to "catch-up" with Gold. Trying, well understood.

The fact, that Silver is a store of value as well as a industrial metal is both a blessing and a curse. In a global recession, the "industrial metal part" will likely become a "curse".

 

Unless "the markets" realise that Silver is undervalued by any standarts. Only then, Silver can shine with a "stellar performance", as has happened before.

 

On 5/24/2025 at 4:41 PM, Yellowtail said:

I have some physical silver, I bought at $16.98, in I think 2014. 

 

310 Troy ounces weighs 9.642kg and is worth about $10,300. You need a BIG safety box for this. 

 

$10,300 in gold weighs about 3.07 Troy ounces or about 96 grams, which you can carry in a shirt pocket. 

 

$100,000.00 in gold weighs 904 grams, and will fit in a small safety box. 

 

Since I bought my metal, gold is up ~160% while silver is only up ~90%

 

 

 

That's the problem with Silver as a store of value: It weighs too much and costs too little.

 

It's robbing me of my sleep: How many truckloads of Silver would Elon Musk need once he converts his paper Dollar assets into Silver?

15 minutes ago, swissie said:

 Currently Silver is trying to "catch-up" with Gold. Trying, well understood.

The fact, that Silver is a store of value as well as a industrial metal is both a blessing and a curse. In a global recession, the "industrial metal part" will likely become a "curse".

 

Unless "the markets" realise that Silver is undervalued by any standarts. Only then, Silver can shine with a "stellar performance", as has happened before.

 

I still remember back when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.  Was it gold or silver?  Whichever it was, it worked, until it didn't.  It was fun while it lasted, though. 

 

 

1 minute ago, jas007 said:

I still remember back when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the market.  Was it gold or silver?  Whichever it was, it worked, until it didn't.  It was fun while it lasted, though. 

 

 

It was the Hunt Brothers. Silver. With the help of "Bache" as their broker. (Later called Bache Prudential). Don't know what happened to Bache Prudential nor the Hunt Brothers. But as I remember, it wasn't a happy ending for the Hunt Brothers.

6 minutes ago, swissie said:

That's the problem with Silver as a store of value: It weighs too much and costs too little.

 

It's robbing me of my sleep: How many truckloads of Silver would Elon Musk need once he converts his paper Dollar assets into Silver?

I think: 

 

$100K worth of silver @ $33.10 per Troy ounce. 

That's about 90.63kg and ~8.64 liters

 

Elon's worth ~$421B, so assuming 40 metric tons per load, that's 9,540 truck loads, or about 36,375 m^3 of silver

 

 

On 5/25/2025 at 4:10 PM, ericbj said:

Never put all your eggs in one basket.  In "normal times" the recommendation was usually about 5% of asset value in gold.  Many in current abnormal times say 30 to 40%.  Gold is not just another commodity.  It is money.  It is one of only two tier-one assets, the other being the US dollar, which is not money, it is a fiat currency.  The dollar is falling in value, which explains some part of the rise of the dollar price of gold.  The other being gold demand, so far mostly from central banks and financial institutions.  Gold will slip back a bit from time to time but is on an upward trend.  Do not buy 'paper-gold', do not invest in gold ETFs, do not invest in gold exploration companies, buy gold mining shares or royalty or streaming shares for leverage in a gold bull market (works the other way when the gold price falls).  Store your bullion, allocated and ideally segregated with a vaulting company in a trusted jurisdiction other than your country of origin or of domicile.  All markets are cyclic.  So look at the cycles.  In theory we should be in a commodities bull market, but it is being hit by economic turmoil.  Gold can survive a recession, where most commodities will fail.  Remember gold bullion pays no dividends; it costs to store and insure it.  Look upon it as a form of insurance, rather than profits (although the current circumstances are exceptional).

Yes indeed, Gold did "slip back a little" during 1980 and 2000.

 

Storage: Private Gold Dealers spring up like mushrooms, offering to store the purchased Gold in their "vaults" in your name for an amazingly small annual fee. Hands off! Take your Gold to a place not associated with the shop you bought the Gold from. Especially if the Gold shop is located somewhere in S/E Asia.

9 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

I think: 

 

$100K worth of silver @ $33.10 per Troy ounce. 

That's about 90.63kg and ~8.64 liters

 

Elon's worth ~$421B, so assuming 40 metric tons per load, that's 9,540 truck loads, or about 36,375 m^3 of silver

 

 

Thanks for calculating this for me. I expected something like that. If Elon should have to leave the country in a hurry, he would not leave the country with 9000 trucks in his wake, heading for Eastern Timbukto.😉

 

Like I said, Siler is too heavy and costs too little. Rats!

On 5/28/2025 at 4:12 PM, swissie said:

 Currently Silver is trying to "catch-up" with Gold. Trying, well understood.

The fact, that Silver is a store of value as well as a industrial metal is both a blessing and a curse. In a global recession, the "industrial metal part" will likely become a "curse".

 

Unless "the markets" realise that Silver is undervalued by any standarts. Only then, Silver can shine with a "stellar performance", as has happened before.

 

As I mentioned above, Silver is trying to catch up with Gold. It's happening. "All in" with Silver would have paid out so far. Next target 38, then 40 (in US $).

 

I also mentioned that investing in Silver is the equivalent of "riding on the back of a Tiger". Still the case.

 

6 minutes ago, swissie said:

As I mentioned above, Silver is trying to catch up with Gold. It's happening. "All in" with Silver would have paid out so far. Next target 38, then 40 (in US $).

 

I also mentioned that investing in Silver is the equivalent of "riding on the back of a Tiger". Still the case.

 

Wow, a nice bump this week

4 minutes ago, Yellowtail said:

Wow, a nice bump this week

Yeah, but it needs to "pause" or correct in form of a "flag". Otherwise somebody is trying to "corner the market" once more. We had this before.

Doesn't Venezuela also have some of the largest gold reserves? What will happen to price of gold?

On 6/9/2025 at 8:56 PM, swissie said:

Yeah, but it needs to "pause" or correct in form of a "flag". Otherwise somebody is trying to "corner the market" once more. We had this before.

You mean the Hunt bothers back in the '80s?

In any event, silver has doubled and gold is up over 30% since your post...

Quite interesting to read through this thread from May with all the bears 😊

I sold a significant amount in October near the then all time high 43xx.

The rest remains in the safe.

Maybe I will touch it if Jamie Dimon is right (10000) 😁

When I started this in may, I never said that we are not in a bull market concerning precious metals. Since May, global tensions have increased greatly and the Silver shortage is a fact.

So, back to the topic, what (under these circumstances) could cause a major setback for Gold/Silver?

One would have to look at the stock market(s). There is so much future optimism (leaveraged optimism) priced in, a stock market "correction" would have a "spillover" effect affecting Gold/Silver as well. (Selling precious metals to cover margin calls elsewhere for example).

But hey, I don't want to be the "party pooper" here. Enjoy the ride as I do. After all, it is more exiting to dance on a volcano than dancing with an ugly women.

I bought gold and silver as a long-term hedge against equities, as it was my understanding that they generally moved opposite of equities, but all that seems to be out the window.

Every party has to have a pooper, and anyone that thinks it can't go south quick is kidding themselves.

The recent price drop in precious metals confirms what I said: Gold/Silver prices can drop. Still opposing professional "investment advisors" advertising precious metals as something like "the rock of Gibraltar", where any meaningful "downside move" is "unthinkable".

Investors, having bought at the recent "peak" can not possibly be "happy campers", as the Rock of Gibraltar has shrunk.

Never mind. The longer term trend remains "up".

59 minutes ago, swissie said:

The recent price drop in precious metals confirms what I said: Gold/Silver prices can drop. Still opposing professional "investment advisors" advertising precious metals as something like "the rock of Gibraltar", where any meaningful "downside move" is "unthinkable".

Investors, having bought at the recent "peak" can not possibly be "happy campers", as the Rock of Gibraltar has shrunk.

Never mind. The longer term trend remains "up".

As far as I know, no one said gold/silver prices could not drop.

In any event, both are up today, and it looks like silver is still up almost 20% and gold over 10% YTD.

Are you saying the bottom will fall out? If so, where do you see them landing? I think gold have more down-side than silver.

3 hours ago, Yellowtail said:

As far as I know, no one said gold/silver prices could not drop.

In any event, both are up today, and it looks like silver is still up almost 20% and gold over 10% YTD.

Are you saying the bottom will fall out? If so, where do you see them landing? I think gold have more down-side than silver.

Here it is: Unisono, the Swiss Banking community said for the last few years: Under the given circumstances, a major drop of the price of Gold is "unthinkable" as the "fundamentals" for Gold are so strong and even more so for Silver.

Cheers.

8 hours ago, swissie said:

The recent price drop in precious metals confirms what I said: Gold/Silver prices can drop. Still opposing professional "investment advisors" advertising precious metals as something like "the rock of Gibraltar", where any meaningful "downside move" is "unthinkable".

Investors, having bought at the recent "peak" can not possibly be "happy campers", as the Rock of Gibraltar has shrunk.

Never mind. The longer term trend remains "up".

People who bought at the peak are idiots. Never buy when its high above the 50 day moving average.

On 2/3/2026 at 9:15 PM, Harrisfan said:

People who bought at the peak are idiots. Never buy when its high above the 50 day moving average.

In another sub-forum you called the recent Silver recovery as a "dead cat bounce". You were right. We are nearing recent lows quickly. If that support doesn't hold, I can see the next (technical) support around 55$.

Of course, the fundamental picture can change, especially if Donald starts to shoot at the Mullahs in Iran. For example.

Just now, swissie said:

In another sub-forum you called the recent Silver recovery as a "dead cat bounce". You were right. We are nearing recent lows quickly. If that support doesn't hold, I can see the next (technical) support around 55$.

Of course, the fundamental picture can change, especially if Donald starts to shoot at the Mullahs in Iran. For example.

I just use 50 day and 50 week moving averages. Nothing special. Silver could fall more or go sideways.

Many people use the 200 day ma as well.