UK Starmer’s Rebellion Problem: Cracks in Labour Could Deepen Fast

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Starmer’s Rebellion Problem: Cracks in Labour Could Deepen Fast

 

Sir Keir Starmer may have narrowly sidestepped a humiliating Commons defeat over welfare reform, but the rebellion by 49 Labour MPs this week suggests far more serious trouble could be on the horizon. If political history is any guide, this is not just a bump in the road—it could be the start of a long and painful erosion of party discipline.

 

At first, the scale of the revolt looked even more daunting. Reports suggested up to 120 Labour MPs might vote against the government over proposed disability benefit cuts—numbers that would have outstripped the early rebellions faced by Boris Johnson or Theresa May. In the end, Starmer retreated, scrapping the cuts before they could be voted on. That tactical withdrawal helped reduce the size of the rebellion, but it did little to mask the depth of the discontent.

 

 

The episode evokes strong parallels with Sir Tony Blair’s own experience in 1997. Just seven months into his first term, Blair faced a rebellion of 47 Labour MPs over benefit changes for lone parents—a not entirely dissimilar controversy. Yet while the numbers are similar, the context is very different. Blair, at the time, enjoyed a net approval rating of +46. Starmer, by contrast, ends his first year in office with a dire approval score of -36.

 

 

Worse still, Blair’s initial rebellion was a warning of more to come. In 1997, just 5% of Commons votes saw significant revolts of ten or more Labour MPs. But by 2000, that figure more than doubled, and by 2005, it reached 22%, a year marked by major rebellions on everything from terror laws to ID cards and even rail legislation. After a brief lull under Gordon Brown, dissent surged again as Labour’s hold on power slipped away.

 

The Conservative experience offers a slightly different timeline, with internal tensions remaining somewhat managed—until the Brexit crisis of 2019. That year, party discipline effectively collapsed. In a third of all parliamentary votes, ten or more Tory MPs broke ranks—the highest rebellion rate on record.

 

Starmer, like Blair before him, leads a “broad church” of Labour MPs, and history shows what happens when that coalition starts to fracture. The danger is particularly acute when the challenge comes from the left. Survation’s ideological mapping of the party showed a 31-point divide between the Labour Left and Right before the general election. That gap has now widened to 39. Starmer and his allies sit squarely in the centre-left, just like Blair. But the rebellion is building from the leftward edge of the party—and the more that wing feels sidelined, the bolder it may become.

 

The Prime Minister’s challenge is not only internal. Voter opinion also paints a complicated picture. A recent poll revealed that a third of Labour voters in 2024 supported the proposed cuts to disability benefits that Starmer has now abandoned. Around 20% were unsure. That third who supported the plan could prove crucial at the next election. If disillusioned, they might not return to the Tories—but they could drift towards Reform UK, fracturing Labour’s fragile coalition of support.

 

What this week’s events make clear is that Starmer’s struggle is not over—it may only just be beginning. If Labour’s internal divisions deepen and the public grows more uncertain of his leadership, Starmer could find himself fighting on two fronts: against his opponents, and against his own party. Just like Blair learned two decades ago, once the cracks start to show, holding everything together becomes exponentially harder.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Telegraph  2025-07-03

 

 

[JonnyF]

The party have lost faith in him. The lies have caught up with him. We need a leader, not a lying lawyer. 

 

He might be in office, but he is no longer in power. 

 

Even Rachel from accounts was reduced to tears during PMQ's yesterday. The first woman chachellor the UK has had, first lies to get the job, then spends all the money and when challenged, bursts into tears. What an inspiration she must be to women throughout the UK. Nice pick, Keir. Your judgement is as lacking as your honesty. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/02/you-may-not-shed-tear-reeves-worse-to-come/

 

[sammieuk1]

Rachel Reeves cry's the pound loses half a baht Thailand boots out the umpteenth unelected PM and it loses a satang what's going on here Donald? 🤔

[The Cyclist]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

Even Rachel from accounts was reduced to tears during PMQ's yesterday

 

The moment that you realise that you, and your Party is a complete cluster.

 

 

 

Priceless

 

For everything else there is Mastercard, unless you are Rachel Reeves and your Commons Credit Card has been suspended.

 

And someone thought it was a good idea to let her loose with the Public Finances.

[James105]

1 hour ago, The Cyclist said:

 

The moment that you realise that you, and your Party is a complete cluster.

 

 

 

Priceless

 

For everything else there is Mastercard, unless you are Rachel Reeves and your Commons Credit Card has been suspended.

 

And someone thought it was a good idea to let her loose with the Public Finances.

 

I almost had a lapse where I sort of started to feel sorry for her, then I remembered she lied to get a position she is so clearly not qualified for and is completely out of her depth.  I do feel sorry for her victims though, such as the farmer who killed himself so she couldn't get her money grabbing hands on the farm he wanted to pass down to his kids, or the pensioners who died before their time after the winter fuel payment cuts, or others who have and will suffer greatly due to her incompetence.   I didn't see her shed any tears when she was inflicting harm onto others so if she is suffering then she probably needs to point the finger of blame at karma for that.   

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2epp4nyz8o

 

[OJAS]

1 hour ago, James105 said:

I remembered she lied to get a position she is so clearly not qualified for and is completely out of her depth.

 

I'm more inclined to point the finger of blame at the gullible individual who appointed her to this position - namely two-tier Kier.

 

[billd766]

4 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Rachel Reeves cry's the pound loses half a baht Thailand boots out the umpteenth unelected PM and it loses a satang what's going on here Donald? 🤔

Rachel Reeves is a politician. Politicians must have thick skins or quit their job. 

 

If she was crying, especially in Parliament, because plan A doesn't/didn't work, then roll out plan B. If you don't have a plan B then you are in deep trouble, and a few tears won't help you out.

[Sir Dude]

Absolutely useless... amateur hour from Labour. The Labour Party is a hodge-podge of anyone not Tory/Reform UK, or completely out there like the Greens/Illiberal Undemocrats, that dosen't actually agree on much. Their policies have been terrible from the go and they've just done the usual socialist spending spree that isn't financed properly... but, hey, let's just jack taxes up for everyone including businesses and make them flee with the wealthy and job creators. Labour can't even understand basic business 101 stuff.

Unbelievable too over this "Rachel from accounts" crying nonsense in parliament that they don't realise that the financial markets are pretty jittery and skittish, basically resembling rabbits in headlights at the slightest negative thing... especially now as Labour has done its best to mess everything up, tax everything in sight, and bring in an unfriendly business environment to the UK. The markets control the money and even governments to some extent, and they won't be putting up with this nonsense from these muppets for long. 

Major facepalm really.

[Bannoi]

They do appear to be scoring an awful lot own goals.

If this were a football match the opposing team could all walk off go to and sit in the pub and still win.

[superal]

5 hours ago, James105 said:

 

I almost had a lapse where I sort of started to feel sorry for her, then I remembered she lied to get a position she is so clearly not qualified for and is completely out of her depth.  I do feel sorry for her victims though, such as the farmer who killed himself so she couldn't get her money grabbing hands on the farm he wanted to pass down to his kids, or the pensioners who died before their time after the winter fuel payment cuts, or others who have and will suffer greatly due to her incompetence.   I didn't see her shed any tears when she was inflicting harm onto others so if she is suffering then she probably needs to point the finger of blame at karma for that.   

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2epp4nyz8o

 

 

3 hours ago, OJAS said:

 

I'm more inclined to point the finger of blame at the gullible individual who appointed her to this position - namely two-tier Kier.

 

also and not forgetting that there will be Labour chosen  political advisors for KS involved . RR is clearly out of her league and giving her the reigns to run the countries finances was and is still , absolutely astounding .I have no sympathy for her after the way she treated the pensioners , farmers and benefit dependent special folks . This Labour government needs to be called in because with another 4 years of governing , what state will the country be in . 

[Anthony mellows]

I don't think labour are any worse than any of the others.The British public have lost faith in all political parties.Although some may say these boat people are a minor issue, the problem there is getting people's backs up in a big way.

 

[Thingamabob]

Labour look like a bunch of clueless beginners. Having said that the Tories who preceded them were also useless. Lord help us Brits !

[JonnyF]

33 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Labour look like a bunch of clueless beginners. Having said that the Tories who preceded them were also useless. Lord help us Brits !

 

The Tories have an awful lot to answer for. Being so bad as to allow this shower into power is never going to be easy to forgive.

 

We are now in the situation that the mood/mental fragility of the Chancellor on any given day is affecting the strength of the pound and the interest rate at which we can borrow money. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

 

2 Tier Keir and 2 Tear Reeves. Worse than Laurel and Hardy. 

 

 

[superal]

18 hours ago, JonnyF said:

 

The Tories have an awful lot to answer for. Being so bad as to allow this shower into power is never going to be easy to forgive.

 

We are now in the situation that the mood/mental fragility of the Chancellor on any given day is affecting the strength of the pound and the interest rate at which we can borrow money. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

 

2 Tier Keir and 2 Tear Reeves. Worse than Laurel and Hardy. 

 

 

Do you believe that RR was crying because of a personal matter ? If that was the case it must be quite serious and she was irresponsible for attending the PMQT in such a state . Should have taken time off . I believe the tears were caused because she got put in her place by back benchers who were opposing the P.I.P. reform .

    The UK welfare system used to work ok many years ago but today with many older folks from the post war baby boom , the supporting finances from the working population is barely enough . Hence the theory of allowing immigration in order that they will find work eventually and contribute financially by way of taxes . However its not happening . In fact immigration is the cause of many UK problems , including NHS queues , housing  and ever increasing crime rates caused by unvetted criminal illegal immigrants .

what a first year for this awful Labour government . Crisis to crisis , u turns , the Chagos island farce etc .  With the N.I. employers contribution rise resulting in an increase in unemployment and either vat or income taxes or both set to rise , the future is bleak for the UK . 

[The Cyclist]

31 minutes ago, superal said:

Hence the theory of allowing immigration in order that they will find work eventually and contribute financially by way of taxes .

 

1 million foreigners claiming £7.5 Billion a year in UC, puts that theory right in the bin.

 

Controlled immigration will boost National  GDP and GDP per Capita.

 

Unfettered immigration requiring £ Billions in Universal Credit, is a joke, a bad one, that is dragging the Country down.

 

Not apportioning any blame. Both Labour and the Tories can share the blame equally.

[superal]

22 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

 

1 million foreigners claiming £7.5 Billion a year in UC, puts that theory right in the bin.

 

Controlled immigration will boost National  GDP and GDP per Capita.

 

Unfettered immigration requiring £ Billions in Universal Credit, is a joke, a bad one, that is dragging the Country down.

 

Not apportioning any blame. Both Labour and the Tories can share the blame equally.

No doubt about the fact that the UK benefit / welfare systems are being milked by fraudulent claims and low detection rates from the government bodies . Many claims from so called personal stress . Many long term claimants who can be seen often in supermarkets buying lots of unhealthy food / snacks and alcohol . In the car park they are often seen smoking and also have a non economical car . I quote from my knowing those concerned who boast about their knowledge of the benefits system . Many migrants are taught how to claim by their associates . 

I agree that both Labour and Tories have not sorted it out . 14.5 % of the UK population are claiming some form of benefit .   The manner in which this Labour government is performing can only lead to a financial crisis . Starmer and his cabinet have no control of their party . Something has to give soon .

[The Cyclist]

1 hour ago, superal said:

No doubt about the fact that the UK benefit / welfare systems are being milked by fraudulent claims and low detection rates from the government bodies

 

1 hour ago, superal said:

I agree that both Labour and Tories have not sorted it out

 

Neither of them have sorted it out, simply because it cannot be sorted out.

 

It needs binned in its entirety, and re-written completely. That will only work in conjunction with a complete societal reset. Starting with those reaching school age, and working upwards from there. 

 

1 hour ago, superal said:

The manner in which this Labour government is performing can only lead to a financial crisis . Starmer and his cabinet have no control of their party . Something has to give soon .

 

Both the IFS and the OBR are currently predicting that the Government will have to raise IRO £30 Billion in tax rises at the next Budget. This is on assumed growth of 1.2 % 😀😀

 

I predict Annual growth at the end of Q2 will be around 0.2 - 0.3% which is going to have the Markets twitching like a camel being bitten by a 1000 fleas, and if that estimated £30 Billion in tax rises increases due to low growth, the Markets will go full tonto after the budget.

 

The biggest single problem of basing your decisions on assumed growth.

[JonnyF]

On 7/5/2025 at 10:10 AM, superal said:

Do you believe that RR was crying because of a personal matter ?

 

No. I believe that was another Labour lie.

 

It is starting to dawn on her that lieing on her CV to get such a job was a bad idea. She is totally unqualified and is destroying the economy. She also knows that 2 tier Keir will throw her under the bus to save his own skin. 

 

She should apologize to the British public for her duplicity and incompetence and then resign.

[superal]

19 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

 

 

Neither of them have sorted it out, simply because it cannot be sorted out.

 

It needs binned in its entirety, and re-written completely. That will only work in conjunction with a complete societal reset. Starting with those reaching school age, and working upwards from there. 

 

 

Both the IFS and the OBR are currently predicting that the Government will have to raise IRO £30 Billion in tax rises at the next Budget. This is on assumed growth of 1.2 % 😀😀

 

I predict Annual growth at the end of Q2 will be around 0.2 - 0.3% which is going to have the Markets twitching like a camel being bitten by a 1000 fleas, and if that estimated £30 Billion in tax rises increases due to low growth, the Markets will go full tonto after the budget.

 

The biggest single problem of basing your decisions on assumed growth.

How are they going to fund the promised 1.5 million new homes ? Now there is media gossip that RR will have to renege on her promise of not to income increase taxes or V.A.T.  Also the UK pensioners representatives , namely the Silver Voices group have asked that the tax threshold to be raised in line with annual pension increases   / triple lock .However the Treasury replied that they have rejected the idea of exempting pensions or other benefits from tax . So this calamitous so called government will continue to make bad decisions , no doubt . They are clearly out of their league . The problem is they still have another 4 years of their term left . There is no legislation in place that can oust a badly performing government ( bar the king ) 

[superal]

14 minutes ago, JonnyF said:

 

No. I believe that was another Labour lie.

 

It is starting to dawn on her that lieing on her CV to get such a job was a bad idea. She is totally unqualified and is destroying the economy. She also knows that 2 tier Keir will throw her under the bus to save his own skin. 

 

She should apologize to the British public for her duplicity and incompetence and then resign.

Maybe a better case that the whole government resign ?

[The Cyclist]

1 hour ago, superal said:

How are they going to fund the promised 1.5 million new homes

 

I answered that question here

 

21 hours ago, The Cyclist said:

The biggest single problem of basing your decisions on assumed growth.

 

but you might have noticed that the warcry of building 1.5 million new homes during this parliament has went silent.

 

It has now been replaced by

 

Quote

Angela Rayner is set to announce plans to build 180,000 new social homes in the next decade, as the government seeks to "turn the tide on the housing crisis".

 

https://news.sky.com/story/why-govts-promise-of-biggest-boost-to-affordable-housing-in-a-generation-may-be-overblown-13391226

 

It is difficult to not laugh at the stupidity. 180,000 social homes in the next decade ?
 

There are currently 1.2 million awaiting social housing in the UK today.

 

The difference between rabble rousing in opposition, and the reality of sitting in the big chairs and actually having to deliver.

 

Most of them not being fit to deliver pizzas for delivery / ubereats / any other fast food delivery mob.

[JonnyF]

More bad news for 2 tier and 2 tear.

 

Rachel's budget for recession starting to bite.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq6mvem8neno

 

[superal]

18 hours ago, JonnyF said:

More bad news for 2 tier and 2 tear.

 

Rachel's budget for recession starting to bite.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cq6mvem8neno

 

Its crisis after crisis for this excuse of a government . Inevitable that it will end in tears and not just R.R.

[The Cyclist]

it's only just starting, wait until it really gets going 😀😀

 

Quote

Angela Rayner has said she will not be “pushed around” by the Unite trade union after it voted to suspend her membership and rethink its ties with the party.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jul/11/unite-votes-to-suspend-angela-rayner-membership-over-birmingham-bin-strikes

 

Labours biggest donor about to defect to the Jezbollah Party.

 

Cabinet reshuffle in September.

 

Get the beer fridge stocked and the popcorn on repeat order.