UK Starmer’s Rebellion Problem: Cracks in Labour Could Deepen Fast

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Starmer’s Rebellion Problem: Cracks in Labour Could Deepen Fast

 

Sir Keir Starmer may have narrowly sidestepped a humiliating Commons defeat over welfare reform, but the rebellion by 49 Labour MPs this week suggests far more serious trouble could be on the horizon. If political history is any guide, this is not just a bump in the road—it could be the start of a long and painful erosion of party discipline.

 

At first, the scale of the revolt looked even more daunting. Reports suggested up to 120 Labour MPs might vote against the government over proposed disability benefit cuts—numbers that would have outstripped the early rebellions faced by Boris Johnson or Theresa May. In the end, Starmer retreated, scrapping the cuts before they could be voted on. That tactical withdrawal helped reduce the size of the rebellion, but it did little to mask the depth of the discontent.

 

 

The episode evokes strong parallels with Sir Tony Blair’s own experience in 1997. Just seven months into his first term, Blair faced a rebellion of 47 Labour MPs over benefit changes for lone parents—a not entirely dissimilar controversy. Yet while the numbers are similar, the context is very different. Blair, at the time, enjoyed a net approval rating of +46. Starmer, by contrast, ends his first year in office with a dire approval score of -36.

 

 

Worse still, Blair’s initial rebellion was a warning of more to come. In 1997, just 5% of Commons votes saw significant revolts of ten or more Labour MPs. But by 2000, that figure more than doubled, and by 2005, it reached 22%, a year marked by major rebellions on everything from terror laws to ID cards and even rail legislation. After a brief lull under Gordon Brown, dissent surged again as Labour’s hold on power slipped away.

 

The Conservative experience offers a slightly different timeline, with internal tensions remaining somewhat managed—until the Brexit crisis of 2019. That year, party discipline effectively collapsed. In a third of all parliamentary votes, ten or more Tory MPs broke ranks—the highest rebellion rate on record.

 

Starmer, like Blair before him, leads a “broad church” of Labour MPs, and history shows what happens when that coalition starts to fracture. The danger is particularly acute when the challenge comes from the left. Survation’s ideological mapping of the party showed a 31-point divide between the Labour Left and Right before the general election. That gap has now widened to 39. Starmer and his allies sit squarely in the centre-left, just like Blair. But the rebellion is building from the leftward edge of the party—and the more that wing feels sidelined, the bolder it may become.

 

The Prime Minister’s challenge is not only internal. Voter opinion also paints a complicated picture. A recent poll revealed that a third of Labour voters in 2024 supported the proposed cuts to disability benefits that Starmer has now abandoned. Around 20% were unsure. That third who supported the plan could prove crucial at the next election. If disillusioned, they might not return to the Tories—but they could drift towards Reform UK, fracturing Labour’s fragile coalition of support.

 

What this week’s events make clear is that Starmer’s struggle is not over—it may only just be beginning. If Labour’s internal divisions deepen and the public grows more uncertain of his leadership, Starmer could find himself fighting on two fronts: against his opponents, and against his own party. Just like Blair learned two decades ago, once the cracks start to show, holding everything together becomes exponentially harder.

 

  Adapted by ASEAN Now from The Telegraph  2025-07-03

 

 

[JonnyF]

The party have lost faith in him. The lies have caught up with him. We need a leader, not a lying lawyer. 

 

He might be in office, but he is no longer in power. 

 

Even Rachel from accounts was reduced to tears during PMQ's yesterday. The first woman chachellor the UK has had, first lies to get the job, then spends all the money and when challenged, bursts into tears. What an inspiration she must be to women throughout the UK. Nice pick, Keir. Your judgement is as lacking as your honesty. 

 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/07/02/you-may-not-shed-tear-reeves-worse-to-come/

 

[sammieuk1]

Rachel Reeves cry's the pound loses half a baht Thailand boots out the umpteenth unelected PM and it loses a satang what's going on here Donald? 🤔

[The Cyclist]

1 hour ago, JonnyF said:

Even Rachel from accounts was reduced to tears during PMQ's yesterday

 

The moment that you realise that you, and your Party is a complete cluster.

 

 

 

Priceless

 

For everything else there is Mastercard, unless you are Rachel Reeves and your Commons Credit Card has been suspended.

 

And someone thought it was a good idea to let her loose with the Public Finances.

[James105]

1 hour ago, The Cyclist said:

 

The moment that you realise that you, and your Party is a complete cluster.

 

 

 

Priceless

 

For everything else there is Mastercard, unless you are Rachel Reeves and your Commons Credit Card has been suspended.

 

And someone thought it was a good idea to let her loose with the Public Finances.

 

I almost had a lapse where I sort of started to feel sorry for her, then I remembered she lied to get a position she is so clearly not qualified for and is completely out of her depth.  I do feel sorry for her victims though, such as the farmer who killed himself so she couldn't get her money grabbing hands on the farm he wanted to pass down to his kids, or the pensioners who died before their time after the winter fuel payment cuts, or others who have and will suffer greatly due to her incompetence.   I didn't see her shed any tears when she was inflicting harm onto others so if she is suffering then she probably needs to point the finger of blame at karma for that.   

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2epp4nyz8o

 

[OJAS]

1 hour ago, James105 said:

I remembered she lied to get a position she is so clearly not qualified for and is completely out of her depth.

 

I'm more inclined to point the finger of blame at the gullible individual who appointed her to this position - namely two-tier Kier.

 

[billd766]

4 hours ago, sammieuk1 said:

Rachel Reeves cry's the pound loses half a baht Thailand boots out the umpteenth unelected PM and it loses a satang what's going on here Donald? 🤔

Rachel Reeves is a politician. Politicians must have thick skins or quit their job. 

 

If she was crying, especially in Parliament, because plan A doesn't/didn't work, then roll out plan B. If you don't have a plan B then you are in deep trouble, and a few tears won't help you out.

[Sir Dude]

Absolutely useless... amateur hour from Labour. The Labour Party is a hodge-podge of anyone not Tory/Reform UK, or completely out there like the Greens/Illiberal Undemocrats, that dosen't actually agree on much. Their policies have been terrible from the go and they've just done the usual socialist spending spree that isn't financed properly... but, hey, let's just jack taxes up for everyone including businesses and make them flee with the wealthy and job creators. Labour can't even understand basic business 101 stuff.

Unbelievable too over this "Rachel from accounts" crying nonsense in parliament that they don't realise that the financial markets are pretty jittery and skittish, basically resembling rabbits in headlights at the slightest negative thing... especially now as Labour has done its best to mess everything up, tax everything in sight, and bring in an unfriendly business environment to the UK. The markets control the money and even governments to some extent, and they won't be putting up with this nonsense from these muppets for long. 

Major facepalm really.

[Bannoi]

They do appear to be scoring an awful lot own goals.

If this were a football match the opposing team could all walk off go to and sit in the pub and still win.

[superal]

5 hours ago, James105 said:

 

I almost had a lapse where I sort of started to feel sorry for her, then I remembered she lied to get a position she is so clearly not qualified for and is completely out of her depth.  I do feel sorry for her victims though, such as the farmer who killed himself so she couldn't get her money grabbing hands on the farm he wanted to pass down to his kids, or the pensioners who died before their time after the winter fuel payment cuts, or others who have and will suffer greatly due to her incompetence.   I didn't see her shed any tears when she was inflicting harm onto others so if she is suffering then she probably needs to point the finger of blame at karma for that.   

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2epp4nyz8o

 

 

3 hours ago, OJAS said:

 

I'm more inclined to point the finger of blame at the gullible individual who appointed her to this position - namely two-tier Kier.

 

also and not forgetting that there will be Labour chosen  political advisors for KS involved . RR is clearly out of her league and giving her the reigns to run the countries finances was and is still , absolutely astounding .I have no sympathy for her after the way she treated the pensioners , farmers and benefit dependent special folks . This Labour government needs to be called in because with another 4 years of governing , what state will the country be in . 

[Anthony mellows]

I don't think labour are any worse than any of the others.The British public have lost faith in all political parties.Although some may say these boat people are a minor issue, the problem there is getting people's backs up in a big way.

 

[Thingamabob]

Labour look like a bunch of clueless beginners. Having said that the Tories who preceded them were also useless. Lord help us Brits !

[JonnyF]

33 minutes ago, Thingamabob said:

Labour look like a bunch of clueless beginners. Having said that the Tories who preceded them were also useless. Lord help us Brits !

 

The Tories have an awful lot to answer for. Being so bad as to allow this shower into power is never going to be easy to forgive.

 

We are now in the situation that the mood/mental fragility of the Chancellor on any given day is affecting the strength of the pound and the interest rate at which we can borrow money. It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

 

2 Tier Keir and 2 Tear Reeves. Worse than Laurel and Hardy.