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What is Going On Here?

Featured Replies

8 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

You remind me of someone who hates Trump.

What catch phrases did I use?

Oddly my post didn’t mention Trump.

Are you quite sure you are keeping up?

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  • I stopped playing the stock market in 2007. I had a feeling that it would crash, and I was right, so I sold everything that was in the profit in September/October 2007. Everything that was in the red

  • Harrisfan
    Harrisfan

    So you are a coward. I knew it lol

  • Harrisfan
    Harrisfan

    Your posts are strange.

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17 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Apple was $3 after the GFC. $255 now. If the market crashes buy Apple.

Well, Tesla, Apple and every other high tech brand will eventually crash. Look at Kodak,

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

Oddly my post didn’t mention Trump.

Are you quite sure you are keeping up?

Why are you attacking me?

3 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

So whats your prediction for the Dow for Dec 1 this year?

Or you too scared to make one?

My prediction is that by Dec 1 of this year you still will not grasp the difference between the stock market and the economy.

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

My prediction is that by Dec 1 of this year you still will not grasp the difference between the stock market and the economy.

So you are a coward. I knew it lol

  • Popular Post
1 minute ago, Harrisfan said:

Why are you attacking me?

Pointing out your completely irrelevant comment is not attacking you.

Concerned, perhaps, attacking, no.

2 minutes ago, Hummin said:

Well, Tesla, Apple and every other high tech brand will eventually crash. Look at Kodak,

Kodak didnt evolve. Apple did. A billion love apple.

Just now, Chomper Higgot said:

Pointing out your completely irrelevant comment is not attacking you.

Concerned, perhaps, attacking, no.

Your posts are strange.

  • Author
42 minutes ago, Harrisfan said:

Low inflation

Low unemployment

Why would the markets crash?

In December 1989, unemployment in Japan was about 1% and inflation was non-existent. JGBs yielded little. The Nikkei topped at 38,915.87 on 28 Dec.

It eventually fell to 7000. It didn't set a new high until 2025....36 years....and that is after replacing the companies that went belly up.

There's much more to markets than 3% inflation and 4.3% UE...even if we can believe those numbers. Debt is critical. Exposure is critical. When everyone who wants to buy has bought, and many of those bought on margin, things are vulnerable.

Just now, Harrisfan said:

Kodak didnt evolve. Apple did. A billion love apple.

A billion addicted to apple through the cloud, programs, music you bought. Slavery but new generations comes, and other brands overlapping each other, and freedom is what people want, not chains

Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP growth of 2.8% for 2026, above the consensus forecast of 2.1%, driven by tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, real wage gains, and rising wealth boosting consumer spending. The forecast anticipates a fourth-quarter growth rate of 2.5% year-over-year, with inflation expected to fall to 2.1% by December.

I can see a correction but no crash

6 minutes ago, Wingate said:

In December 1989, unemployment in Japan was about 1% and inflation was non-existent. JGBs yielded little. The Nikkei topped at 38,915.87 on 28 Dec.

It eventually fell to 7000. It didn't set a new high until 2025....36 years....and that is after replacing the companies that went belly up.

There's much more to markets than 3% inflation and 4.3% UE...even if we can believe those numbers. Debt is critical. Exposure is critical. When everyone who wants to buy has bought, and many of those bought on margin, things are vulnerable.

Japan's GDP growth slowed significantly in the 1990s, marking the beginning of a prolonged period of economic stagnation known as the "Lost Decade." After peaking in the late 1980s, Japan's economy entered a downturn following the collapse of its asset price bubble in 1990. Real GDP growth averaged just 1.3% annually in the 1990s, a sharp decline from the 4% average of the 1980s.

33 minutes ago, Chomper Higgot said:

My prediction is that by Dec 1 of this year you still will not grasp the difference between the stock market and the economy.

So whats your forecast?

On 2/16/2026 at 9:30 PM, CallumWK said:

I stopped playing the stock market in 2007. I had a feeling that it would crash, and I was right, so I sold everything that was in the profit in September/October 2007.

Everything that was in the red I kept, and as of today they are still in the red, some even have gone deeper.

Haven't bought any stocks since then.

Speculating on the stock market was great before the digital age approached. When you see stocks have a daily move of 10-20% without any significant news public (YET), then you know it is all rigged.

Last year I went big into gold, and still hold at a massive profit, mainly because in the bank you get 1% and in the US they elected a clown.

Currently I'm watching closely, because I can feel the whales are gaming the market in gold again, and the small player will get hurt.

One advice I want to give is, don't rely on the news you read on the financial news sites, since they are just journalists with little knowledge, and post what the whales dictate.

Make decisions by your own feelings, and rather act to the opposite of what you read in those financial news articles.

I've told this story before so will try to be brief as possible. Dad started investing in stocks when he retired in 1972 but didn't have much to invest until the last child left college around 1980. When he died in 2009, his portfolio of mostly blue chips plus some others was valued at $600,000. He wanted to leave each of us 6 kids $100,000 each, so he met his goal.

Mom was still alive so no stock was sold--they were all held and the dividends helped pay for her nursing care. When she died in December 2019, the stock portfolio was worth about $2 million. Covid hit and the portfolio took a huge nosedive, if I remember to around $1.2 or 1.3 million, something like that.

By the time the estate finally cleared probate, which took over a year, the portfolio had recovered to around $1.9 million and each of us got around $300,000.

I still have Dad's stocks on Yahoo Portfolio, which tells me that his original portfolio, had it not been distributed, would be worth $2, 547,457 today. Not totally accurate as I haven't kept it current with stock splits and companies like GE splitting into separate companies, but likely in the ballpark. Buy and hold still seems to be viable but congrats on your wise purchase of gold.

  • Popular Post
On 2/16/2026 at 9:42 PM, Harrisfan said:

All Buffett does is take 10 years historical eps and project forward then calculate likely return.

That's the stupidest thing you've said for a long time. I do wonder why you feel able to dispense advice.

  • Popular Post

Damn! Looks like I'm wasting my time reading Morningstar. All the financial experts are on AN. LOL

20 hours ago, Harrisfan said:

Goldman Sachs projects U.S. GDP growth of 2.8% for 2026, above the consensus forecast of 2.1%, driven by tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, real wage gains, and rising wealth boosting consumer spending. The forecast anticipates a fourth-quarter growth rate of 2.5% year-over-year, with inflation expected to fall to 2.1% by December.

I can see a correction but no crash

Goldman Sachs, and other big players like them in the financial markets, have a vested interest in talking up the market because it's good for buiness and what their clients want to hear so I'd take what they say with a pinch of salt. If you're in any doubt, why don't you Google what Goldman Sachs was saying just prior to the 2008 crash?

As to a correction, not a crash... There are corrections all the time, of various scales. However, the next crash is overdue. The result of being overdue is that the markets will have risen further so have further to drop = harder crash. This isn't speculation - it's inevitability, based on historic market behaviour.

And don't believe that Trump (or anyone else) can keep the markets up when they decide they've had enough. There is a rhythm to market movement that is there if you look and no human intervention can override it.

Lastly, remember when all the crypto Investors speculators were shouting at the rest of us from their lofty perches at the end of last year? That collapse was an inevitability too but they couldn't see it. Hint: crypto is not likely to replace conventional currencies in our lifetimes, and has no intrinsic value so why would anyone pay $125K for something useless unless they were a 'believer'. Commonsense wins every time, eventually.

25 minutes ago, kimothai said:

Damn! Looks like I'm wasting my time reading Morningstar. All the financial experts are on AN. LOL

Don't count me among them--a financial expert I am not. I do have a stock portfolio but at any time about half of the stocks are in the red. Seems like it's always shifting--I'll get one in the red into the black and one in the black goes into the red. However, the portfolio does produce about $11,500 a year in dividend income, which helps supplement my pension and SS.

I posted the history of my Dad's stock portfolio as I thought it was a good example of the 'buy and hold' strategy taken to the extreme. My Dad, though, while he was alive, didn't have any hesitation in selling a stock he didn't think was performing to his liking, and he was always buying and selling. We did the 'holding' after his death.

4 hours ago, newnative said:

Don't count me among them--a financial expert I am not. I do have a stock portfolio but at any time about half of the stocks are in the red. Seems like it's always shifting--I'll get one in the red into the black and one in the black goes into the red. However, the portfolio does produce about $11,500 a year in dividend income, which helps supplement my pension and SS.

I posted the history of my Dad's stock portfolio as I thought it was a good example of the 'buy and hold' strategy taken to the extreme. My Dad, though, while he was alive, didn't have any hesitation in selling a stock he didn't think was performing to his liking, and he was always buying and selling. We did the 'holding' after his death.

Same, same. Some red, some black. The majority of my portfolio is ETF index funds with a few stocks. Since I'm fortunate enough to have a pension that is more than adequate to support my modest lifestyle, I don't need to depend on dividends for income which allows me to be a bit more aggressive. Sometimes I just match the S&P or beat it but not by much. I don't do a lot of buying/selling, mostly buying but only sell when I realize the stock is dog or when I wonder "what was I thinking when I bought that". LOL

5 hours ago, kimothai said:

Damn! Looks like I'm wasting my time reading Morningstar. All the financial experts are on AN. LOL

No the financial experts are not all on AN, but if you believe that the JOURNALISTS that write the articles on Morningstar, motleyfool and the likes are financial experts, then I have a bridge for sale for you.

What is going to happen then, if Elon Musk is right?

He stated in 10-20 years, no one have to work anymore. It would be a hobby.

All work taken over by robots and AI.

I, robot movie a fact?

50 minutes ago, CallumWK said:

No the financial experts are not all on AN, but if you believe that the JOURNALISTS that write the articles on Morningstar, motleyfool and the likes are financial experts, then I have a bridge for sale for you.

To begin with I never claimed to believe what any financial journalist writes from any site. I ONLY claimed to read Morningstar which by the way provides a lot of factual data among other things. I'm guessing you already know everything, so you have no need to read, so you can keep your bridge (and your negativity) to yourself.

2 minutes ago, kimothai said:

To begin with I never claimed to believe what any financial journalist writes from any site.

Then why you waste your money on a subscription to Morningstar if you don't believe what they write anyway.

4 minutes ago, kimothai said:

I'm guessing you already know everything, so you have no need to read, so you can keep your bridge (and your negativity) to yourself.

No I don't know everything already, but I'm not an idiot who belittles every poster in this thread, then claims he pays to read something he doesn't believe anyway

16 hours ago, CallumWK said:

Then why you waste your money on a subscription to Morningstar if you don't believe what they write anyway.

No I don't know everything already, but I'm not an idiot who belittles every poster in this thread, then claims he pays to read something he doesn't believe anyway

There you go again, making stuff up! Who said I "paid"? Most of what is on Morningstar I can get through my brokerage website but sometimes it easier just to go directly to the Morningstar website. I claimed to READ a website which is nothing more than gathering information. What I chose to believe or disbelieve is my business. I also choose NOT to give financial to anyone and that includes the posters on this forum.

  • 2 weeks later...
  • Author

I now have the answer:

Fears over the yen carry trade and the massive leverage that has created in everything from bitcoin to the Magnificent Seven stocks.

Total borrowings related to the carry trade are maybe $900 billion, while derivatives that are based on the carry trade have a notional value of about $4 trillion, with some estimates as high as $20 trillion.

Inflation is picking up in Japan. Despite rate rises by the BoJ, the yen remains weak, which might suggest the yen carry trade is actually increasing.

A while back a surprise rate hike by the BoJ took 12% out of the Nikkei in a day.

It seems the NY Fed is opening the repo window---no limit as of mid-December 2025---in order to get in front of what might happen to asset prices in the wildly leverage US markets if the BoJ decides on another rate hike.

That makes the 220% value to GDP of the US market, plus the $1.2 trillion in margin buying quite vulnerable.

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